Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Lende Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market reported as the March 2025. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett of AgMarket.net. I'll bring you up to speed on the agricultural news for the afternoon, and we'll hear about the weather forecast too. We'll do that with Mike Tenure at t storm weather.

Todd Gleason: 00:25

Along the way, I'll remind you to visit our website at willag.org. You can listen to our programming there, but for today scroll down find the calendar of events and there at three p. M. Today central time you'll see another in the farm doc webinar series. This time around, Joanna Colucci and a colleague from Argentina will take up the crop prospects in South America, both Brazil and Argentina.

Todd Gleason: 00:51

The Rosario Grain Exchange updated its numbers from Argentina earlier in the week and this morning, CONAB, the counterpart to USDA in Brazil, updated its figures as well. They'll go through that, what the potential for expansion in Brazil and Argentina might be like as it's related to crop acreage, and we'll hear about their export markets all during the farm doc webinar, but you need to register. You can do that on our website. Look for that event at 03:00 today in the calendar. Once you open it up, there is a registration link.

Todd Gleason: 01:25

But if you scroll down just a bit, you'll find a more details button. Hit that, and the registration link will become hot, and you can just click it and get yourself registered for the free PharmDoc webinar today at 03:00 central time.

announcer: 01:39

Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: 01:44

May corn for the day settled the nearby contract at $4.65 and a quarter, up 4 and a half cents. July 4 and three quarters higher. Its settlement price at $4.72 and a quarter in December corn, '4 dollars '50 '2 and a quarter, up 4¢ for the day. The soybeans in the nearby May contract finished at $10.10 and three quarters, up 10 and a quarter. July '59 and a half higher in November up five and a quarter the settlement price there at $10.11 and 3 quarters of a cent soybean meal futures at $3.00 $7.10 up $6.90 the bean oil at $41.28 down 40¢ wheat futures in the soft red 8 and a half cents the gain in the May, '5 '60 '2 and a half the settlement price.

Todd Gleason: 02:26

July at $5.78 and a quarter, the harvest month up eight and three quarters, and the hard red July finished at $6 and 3 quarters of a cent, up 14¢ on the afternoon. Live cattle futures in Chicago at 02:02 and a nickel. That's 65¢ higher. Feeder cattle at $279.97 and a half cents for a hundred pounds, down 75¢, and lean hogs, $85.62 and half down 87 and a half cents for the day. Crude oil $66.58 a barrel, a dollar and 10¢ lower.

Todd Gleason: 02:59

Diesel fuel at two sixteen and three tenths down four and three tenths, the wholesale price of gasoline a penny 8 tenths lower on the dime at $2.13 and 6 tenths of a cent. Matt Bennett from AgMarket.net is here now to take a look at the marketplace. Hi, Matt. Thanks for being with us. It's been a busy week.

Todd Gleason: 03:19

USDA's WASDE report was out. The Rosario Grain Exchange updated the numbers from Argentina. And early today, CONAB released some numbers for an updated crop report out of Brazil. What did you make of all of them?

Matt Bennett: 03:35

You know, the the report really wasn't a whole lot to get excited about this week. Of course, no changes at all whenever you look at US balance sheet, minimal changes otherwise. So, you know, in all honesty, it's been, oh, I don't know, nothing to be super excited about this week. You know? You look at production out of Argentina and, you know, a small decrease, but at the same time, it looks to like the major losses if you will have been stabilized and so that crop's probably not going to get any smaller from here at least by most people's estimations.

Matt Bennett: 04:13

So, you know, so far this week, it's just been pretty quiet. Yesterday, of course, was a pretty rough day as far as markets were concerned, but we got some of that back again today. It looks like there's a lot of people out there wanting to buy weakness. Yes. There's a lot of uncertainty with tariffs, but at the same time, these world balance sheets on feed grains have continued to tighten up.

Matt Bennett: 04:33

And with that the case, I do think that, you know, there's gonna be some interest just in case you have some weather issues here this year.

Todd Gleason: 04:39

I was relatively thinking whether the volatility, and I under some stand some of it as it's related to the tariffs and the president, was sort of a risk on risk off function related to what happens in the financial markets. The Dow off, again, another five or 600 points today, And I didn't know whether that was driving some of the marketplace recovery as well. I know you're suggesting that that there might be some that think that they should be into this market as buying. Can you separate those two out for me or give me kind of your, deeper perspective of this marketplace?

Matt Bennett: 05:16

Well, I mean, the the interesting thing is, of course, the dollar has been getting hammered here lately. Dollar's up today. At the same time that the dollar's up, crude oil is down, which would make some sense. But you look at some other commodities, and, you know, gold's making new all time high. Silver's up half a dollar.

Matt Bennett: 05:33

You know, there is some flight to safety going on in places on commodities, but it's not always, you know, in in in the places that you would necessarily think. So you look over the equities, I think that there's still some draining out of the equities. A lot of uncertainty there, and so I think people are trying to move stuff over to something that they think is a little safer. But at the same time, I think buying gold at an all time high may not seem all that safe to me. So it's a very interesting market.

Matt Bennett: 06:03

A lot of money flows going on, but I think some of this money has been taken off the table.

Todd Gleason: 06:07

And tell me about your conversations with producers this week as it pertains to acreage, new crop, and sales, even an old crop. I know they have both left.

Matt Bennett: 06:18

Yeah. I think some of these old crop opportunities of late certainly have looked awfully good, but then the market gets knocked on the mat like we did $60.70 cent loss. You know, and of course, everyone got tight fisted again. It makes sense that they would do that. But whenever you look at the overall landscape, I think most people have gotten down to levels on old crop.

Matt Bennett: 06:42

I would call maybe more of a gambling bushel type level. So I think that overall, you've got an opportunity to see some of these gambling bushels, if you will, pay big dividends with any sort of weather. Because again, I think that there's gonna be those out there wanting to own this market. As far as new crop's concerned, a lot of people are back in that situation where they just can't make this work. I mean, you've got cash bids under $10 easily for most of us on beans.

Matt Bennett: 07:09

Then corn, you know, you're back down there at $4.24 15. And so I wouldn't lock in a negative situation right now this early in the year. I think there's a lot of water to go into the bridge, so to speak. You know, historically, when we look at crop insurance prices, when they get established there for the month of February, in the last twenty years, you've gotten back to or above, you know, that crop insurance price, which would be $10.54 and $4.70. For me, I don't wanna really do anything or even consider sales until we at least get to those levels on the board.

Matt Bennett: 07:42

I'm not saying this might be the first year in twenty years, you know, that, you could not get back to those levels, but I certainly would think history suggests that we will.

Todd Gleason: 07:50

Is there anything that you're watching at this point in the wheat market? And I'm wondering whether the hard red winter wheat was responding to dry conditions in Kansas still.

Matt Bennett: 08:00

You know, I kinda feel like and whenever you look at wheat, you gotta remember, as well as corn, feed grains are tight. I mean, that's all there is to it as far as the world goes. Continue to ratchet down those balance sheets. I know we can fix a wheat problem pretty easily because everyone in the world can grow wheat, but at the same time, nobody seems like they wanna grow wheat. So to me, I think wheat maybe have as good a story as any of the big three.

Matt Bennett: 08:24

I think wheat and corn both have a story, and, ultimately, I think you could see some excitement with any sort of weather here this year. I mean, we know that Russian crop went into the ground or went into dormancy in pretty poor shape, had a lot of harsh conditions over there this winter without a whole lot of snow cover in some big, wheat producing areas. So there's a lot of question marks on what world wheat production might look like.

Todd Gleason: 08:46

Have you got the planner out of the machine shed yet to tune it up?

Matt Bennett: 08:49

They're ready to go. We're just kinda waiting on under nature to give us a sign. We know this week looks great, but, of course, we've got some colder weather coming next week, we really don't wanna get in ahead of that. But as far as beans go, you know, you can plant as of the twenty first with our insurance policy. So, you know, after that, we might be able to roll this, especially on beans.

Matt Bennett: 09:08

I'd like to get a little warmer weather for corn now.

Todd Gleason: 09:10

Hey. Thanks much, and we'll talk with you next week.

Matt Bennett: 09:13

Sounds good, bud.

Todd Gleason: 09:14

That, of course, is Matt Bennett. He is with agmarket.net. In today's agricultural news, the trade war is on, and the president is upping the ante again today after imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports earlier in the week. The president says if the EU, the European Union, does not remove immediately a tariff, which has not yet been imposed on US bourbon, The United States will, quote, shortly place a 200 tariff on all wines, champagnes, and alcoholic products coming out of France and other EU represented countries, unquote. This was in response to the president of the European Union yesterday, Ursula von der Leyen, saying the bloc would respond to the original tariffs being imposed by The United States.

Ursula von de Leyen: 10:07

The countermeasures we take today are strong but proportionate as The United States are applying tariffs worth $28,000,000,000, we are responding with countermeasures worth €26,000,000,000.

Todd Gleason: 10:24

The EU tariffs on US imports into the trading block will begin April 1 and include agricultural products. Along with poultry, eggs, beef, dairy, and sugar, the block will also tariff the import of corn and soybeans. Andre Sizov of Sove Econ, a broker we've talked with in the past on our commodity week program, says the corn tariff will come into play starting April 1. The EU accounts for about 4% of the annual corn exports.

Andrey Sizov: 10:52

During the second stage, the block would introduce is to introduce additional input barriers on additional products. But the problem is for US Farmers that that list does include soybeans. And it's even a bigger problem compared to corn because America ships around 7,000,000 tons of soybeans to Europe, and that accounts for more than 10% out of total US exports.

Todd Gleason: 11:26

The second stage of the EU tariff round is expected to be fully imposed by April 13. EU member states are meeting to compile a list of products which will be included in the round two tariffs. President Trump's pronouncement today represents the tit for tat trade war issues that have been expected with his international trade policy stance. Well, farm lenders, insurers, and growers implored senate ag lawmakers this week to pass a new farm bill now with improved crop insurance, reference prices, and loan programs. Caleb Hopkins with First Dakota National Bank in Iowa and the American Bankers Association says lenders are looking for the certainty that crop insurance provides.

Kaleb Hopkins: 12:09

Not only on the risk management side, it also creates creates marketing opportunities for producers when it comes to marking those crops proactively throughout the year. So that level of certainty helps bankers make that decision as we look at renewing operating lines. Reference prices combined with crop insurance are the two most important tools that bankers have.

Todd Gleason: 12:31

Farm Credit Mid America Chief Ag Lending Officer Tara Durbin praised lawmakers' efforts to improve crop insurance affordability and coverage along with farm loans.

Tara Durbin: 12:41

The FSA Loan Guarantee program allows lenders to make loans to farmers who may not qualify for traditional credit. This tool is not only important for lenders when financial conditions and agricultural economy become more challenging, but also helpful when working with young and beginning producers.

Todd Gleason: 12:58

The bipartisan PACE act by ranking ag democrat Amy Klobuchar and republican John Hovind would boost direct and guaranteed loan limits to better align with current operating costs. And finally today, on a related farm bill note, this year's ARCPLC decision is due a month later than usual. Crop insurance still comes in mid March, but the Farm Safety Net program choice does not need to be made until April 15. For the bulk of the Corn Belt, Gary Schnicki says PLC is likely to pay less for corn, soybeans, and wheat this season than ARC County.

Gary Schnitkey: 13:37

Obviously, we don't know all the prices and yields that will happen in 2025. If we have extremely low prices, PLC will pay more, but that's that's a pretty remote case yet.

Todd Gleason: 13:49

So the FarmDoc team at the U of I leans towards taking our county rather than PLC for all three crops, corn, soybeans, and wheat, Unlike federal crop insurance, which requires a premium to be paid for the coverage level, the federal farm safety net programs are free of charge. The two cover different sorts of farm financial risk. And that's today's agricultural news. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media on this Thursday afternoon. Find us online.

Todd Gleason: 14:19

Listen to us on demand anytime you'd like at willag.org, w I l l a g 0 r g, or in your favorite podcast applications, places like Spotify and Apple. In fact, any of your favorite podcast applications, we should show up. Our theme music for the day is written, performed, and produced by Logan County, Illinois Farmer Tim Gleason. And one final note, we're celebrating forty years of the closing market report, 10,000 episodes, and 30,000 interviews. We're now joined by Mike Tanuri.

Todd Gleason: 15:06

He's the CEO and president of t storm weather. That's tstorm.net online. Thanks, Mike, for being with us today. I think we probably ought to take a tour of the planet. Let's begin in Brazil with safrinha or second crop corn.

Todd Gleason: 15:23

Konab updated their numbers today and said, hey. This crop is going in the ground pretty quickly.

Mike Tannura: 15:28

Well, and that's because it's been so dry. They're in the midst of their driest open to the growing season in more than seven years. A little more than half of that crop saw less than half of its normal rainfall over the last thirty days. And it's been at that level for the past three weeks, and that's starting to show up in our data as a potential problem. Now the only way to get out of this problem is for it to start raining.

Mike Tannura: 15:54

And there is some rain on the way over the next week or two, but from everything we can see, these are now going to be widespread and heavy rains. They're going to be more of the scattered variety, and that's going to leave weather important later this month. The key period for development starts in about ten to twenty days, and then it lasts through April and ends in early May. So we're going to need to see some really nice rains, and else this is going to turn into a problem. So we certainly have some concerns for second crop corn.

Mike Tannura: 16:21

But at the moment, as Conan pointed out, everything's looking great because this dryness has allowed them to plant early. But we know that dryness can quickly become a problem, and that's kind of what we're looking at now.

Todd Gleason: 16:33

And then just as a reminder, the next thirty to forty days through the end of the month of April is really an important time as it's related to when the monsoon will end and the dry season might begin?

Mike Tannura: 16:44

Well, and that's correct. They start to receive, well, their climate turns much drier over the next eight weeks. Every week is drier than the previous one. So right now, we're averaging around three inches of rain per two weeks. But two weeks from now, it'll be down to about two and a half inches, then it'll go down to two inches.

Mike Tannura: 17:05

And once you get into May, it can get very dry with no rain. So if that dry season were to start a little bit early, that would be a problem because we need rains to alleviate the situation that we have today. Normal rainfall in the month of April in Mato Grosso, which is where around half of this crop is produced, it's had around four to five inches of rain for the entire month, which is a lot for The US. But keep in mind that back in January, their normal was around nine to 10 inches. So it gives you some idea of where we're going.

Mike Tannura: 17:35

Once we get into May, they only average one to two inches of range, so it does fall off a cliff. At this point in time, we don't see a hint that it's going to turn dry super early, but it's really that April time period where it would show up if it were to happen, and that's just a little bit beyond what we can think about right now.

Todd Gleason: 17:55

Here in The United States, we've been paying close attention to the Southwest, particularly in Kansas. Not quite the Southwest, but close enough for the winter wheat, areas there. How is hard red making it through the wintertime, and what are your expectations then as we move into spring?

Mike Tannura: 18:16

Well, it's pretty dry out there and this is going to become a topic as we move into the end of the month. The problem is that around half of The US hard red winter wheat crop was drier than normal over the last ninety days. If we go back and look at the last ten years, the only two years that were comparable were in 2018 and in 2022. Both of those crops were considerably below trend because of the lack of rain that accompanied those growing seasons. So that tells us that we need some big rains and we'll need to see them sooner than later.

Mike Tannura: 18:46

Now, the big difference between this year and those years is that this year, the drought has started a little bit later. The droughts back then started in early December into early January, while this one started in mid February. So the dryness story has only been around for about a month as opposed to back then when it had been around for two to three months. So the situation is not as poor as it was then, but our concern is that there's really not much rain on the way. And that might be a little bit of a surprise because depending on where you're listening from, there's a lot of rain on the way for most of the Central United States over the next two weeks, but the exception is in the Central And Southern Plains.

Mike Tannura: 19:28

The reason for that is that four systems are going to move directly overhead and that will not allow for rain because in order to get good rains out there in the springtime, you need the system to pass a little bit further to the south or even further to the north. But when it moves right overhead and it moves quickly, that doesn't allow for muggy air to sweep into that region from the south. If you don't have muggy air, you don't get much rain. So we think that this story is going to linger into the end of the month, and that'll put a lot of pressure on April rainfall.

Todd Gleason: 19:59

What do we know about the growing regions in France, Ukraine, the Black Sea, Russia area?

Mike Tannura: 20:05

Well, could argue that conditions there are worse, and that's where we're starting to think there's a wheat story developing. If you look at the coverage of ninety day dryness in Europe, Russia, and in Ukraine, all three of them are at the highest level in more than six years in March, and that means that they're all in long running drought. Now their growing season starts a little bit later than ours and the springtime takes a little bit later to get going because their climate is cooler. But if we don't start to see some pretty big rains over the next four to eight weeks, then that's going to be a problem in all these areas. Now, will that happen?

Mike Tannura: 20:44

There is some rain on the way in Southern Europe and in Ukraine and Russia over the next couple of weeks, so that might delay the story a little bit. But at this point in time, it doesn't look like there'll be a lot of rain. And that's also going to put pressure on April and May rainfall across all of this big area. So there are things to watch here, but it's all in the future because if we start talking in two weeks and there's a great weather pattern for rains all across Europe and Russia and Ukraine, well then this story will be negated pretty quickly. But the stage is certainly set for problems if we don't have a wetter than normal spring.

Todd Gleason: 21:20

Thank you very much. We appreciate it, and we'll talk with you again next week.

Mike Tannura: 21:24

Sounds great, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 21:25

Mike Tenoras with t storm weather. That's tstorm.net online. Joined us on this Thursday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world. Don't forget we'll record commodity week this afternoon.

Todd Gleason: 21:39

Posted to our website at willag.org this evening. Many of these radio stations will carry it tomorrow afternoon, and you'll hear all of it on our home station. The rest of them will carry it over the weekend as well, and so will WILL for that matter, are early on Saturday morning. Now the other item of interest that you'll want to pay attention to if you've got some time coming up in the 03:00 hour central today, Join us for another of the PharmDoc webinars today. Joanna Colucci of the PharmDoc team and Salvinia Cabrini, who's with the National Institute of Agricultural Technology in Argentina, will provide an update on the current crop season in South America focusing on soybean and corn production.

Todd Gleason: 22:23

They'll also discuss the potential for cropland expansion in Brazil, export prospects considering supply chain dynamics, and recent changes in Argentina's export taxes. You'll want to join us for that. You can register online at willag.org. Look for the webinar in the calendar. Click on it to open it, and then scroll down just a bit.

Todd Gleason: 22:45

You'll find something that says more details. There'll be a registration link in that first set, but if you hit more details, that registration link will become hot. The webinars for the PharmDoc team are always free, and we hope you will join us at 03:00 this afternoon for the South American crop season update, soybeans, corn, and the export market. I'm University of Illinois Extensions, Todd Gleeson.