Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Linde Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market reported as the March 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Kurt Kimmel. He's at AgMarket.net. We'll hear about tariffs from the Canadian side of the border as they think about what it means for that nation and the European Union, and then we'll discuss what Joanna Colucci and her colleague from Argentina saw in the way of crop prospects out of South America.

Todd Gleason: 00:35

And as we close out our time together, we'll discuss the marketplace, particularly beef cattle production and its usage of corn in The United States with Ben Brown. He's an agricultural economist at the University of Missouri. All on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.

announcer: 00:54

Todd Gleason services made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: 00:59

May corn futures today settled at $4.61, up 2 and a half cents. July at $4.70, 2 and a half higher in December at $4.54, up 3. May beans, $10.15 and a half, down a half. A settlement price there. July at $10.29 and a quarter, 3 quarters lower, and new crop November up a half at $10.18 and a half.

Todd Gleason: 01:18

Bean meal at $3.00 $4.30, down a dollar 60. The bean oil at $42.10, 51¢ higher. Soft red winter wheat in the harvest month July up 12¢. A settlement at $5.85 a bushel. The hard red July at $6.17 and three quarters finished 19 higher.

Todd Gleason: 01:36

Live cattle futures at $2.00 $1.07 and a half cents, a dollar 72 and a half higher. Feeders at $285.35, up $2.65, and lean hogs, $99.12 and a half cents, up $2.82 and a half. Crude oil, $67.37 a barrel, up 46¢. US l ULSD, that's the diesel fuel or heating oil at $2 and 16 and 6 tenths of a cent. That's up 3 and a tenth of a cent.

Todd Gleason: 02:06

The wholesale price of gasoline today up 3 and a tenth at $2.18 and a tenth of a cent. The S and P five hundred around 52 points higher, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up about 440 points. Kurt Kimmel is now here from AgMarket.net out of Normal, Illinois to discuss the marketplace. Hi, Kurt. Thanks for being with us today.

Curt Kimmel: 02:29

Well, glad to be here on a Saint Patrick's Day holiday here for the Irish.

Todd Gleason: 02:36

Well, yeah. So it's it's a good day. And depending on what side of the market you're on, I suppose you might wanna take advantage of it, possibly celebrate if you, are hoping for the price of wheat to go higher. What was in that market today?

Curt Kimmel: 02:50

Yeah. We all saw green clear across the board here early in the day. It was appropriate to do that. But, yeah, wheat, was the leader. Wheat will lead hopefully here for those wanting the market to move a little higher.

Curt Kimmel: 03:03

It's a combination of things. World wheat weather, here in The US, there's a little question about the plains, forecast here as you watch the weather guys at, South Southwest continues to be a fire zone. Then when you look at the world weather maps too, particularly in Ukraine and even in Russia, there's some question, but, you know, wheat has nine lives. I think also what we saw on the supportive side of wheat is talk of Russia will maybe cut or slow wheat exports. I believe this is to keep the domestic flour and bread prices low.

Curt Kimmel: 03:40

So it might suggest that, Russia wheat, stocks might be dwindling a little bit, and they're pretty well sold up. So that gave the market, some support. But to hear over the last few trading days, we've seen wheat, kinda get the technical bulls on board here as that wheat market continues to make some higher highs here, particularly taking out last week's highs there, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 04:04

We'll be watching at the end of this week, and then, of course, we have the acreage report next week too.

Curt Kimmel: 04:08

Yeah. There's gonna be some things coming at us. Today was kinda light volume. The, they the commodity funds bought 4,200 wheat, 3,900 corn, and about 6,400 contracts of beans. I think people were kinda busy filling out the bracket, but towards the end of the week here, we'll probably really see volume slow down as the tournament takes place.

Curt Kimmel: 04:29

I think there was somebody said that the volume's probably a little bit more slower during the first weekend of the March madness versus a regular holiday. But we did see some news here on the crush, the NOPA crush report. Came in less than expected. A 77,800,000 beans being crushed versus the analyst estimate of one eighty eight. Bean oil stocks a little higher than expected 1.5 versus the average analyst guess about 1.46.

Curt Kimmel: 04:58

So that's probably one of the first reports we've seen the crush kind of slow down a little bit. But when you look at kind of projecting the final numbers, which is a long ways away, our group feels that the crush is on pace to be about 1, sorry, 2,413 versus the current USD estimate of 2,004 and 10. So it's kind of in target. The weekly export and shipments were solid. We shipped out 65,000,000 bushels of corn and 23,000,000 bushels of beans.

Curt Kimmel: 05:30

So fundamentally, mixed reviews in through here. We've got weather in front of us. Producers are busy getting caught up and we'll see how the weather guys fare here as we enter the prime part of the growing season here in a couple weeks or if not two or three months from now.

Todd Gleason: 05:47

Yeah. No. I mentioned that the acreage report was due out not this week, but next week, but, really, it is the Monday after that. So it's the third week out, but on the first day that, of that week, which is March. Also, the grain stocks numbers will be due that day.

Todd Gleason: 06:02

You mentioned, producers getting ready to go. Dry conditions remain in the Western Corn Belt, parts of Missouri, Kansas. Are they likely to put more corn in the ground because of those dry conditions, do you suppose?

Curt Kimmel: 06:18

Well, that's a tough one. There's so many moving parts or different opinions, Kansas particularly. The milo, the sorghum market just fell apart and just looking at basically going to corn there. When the ag market team was out in Denver for the commodity classic, just about every producer that came by was signaling a few more corn acres. I don't know if 94, 90 five is right, but might be 98.

Curt Kimmel: 06:49

It's like 99. Gosh, I mean, these guys are We'll see what that brings. Traditionally in the past, springs, you put in corn first and go, but actually a lot of beans are going in now due to the dry conditions. But yes, we'll have some fine tune estimates here as we move a little further along here. Corn's gonna be a little heavy, beans a little light, but once we factor that, the thing that moves the bottom line the most is everyone knows is yield, what type of yield we put on it during the growing season.

Todd Gleason: 07:23

Do we, speaking of yields, have any indications out of Argentina and Brazil, how their yields are doing this year for particularly for soybean out of Brazil?

Curt Kimmel: 07:33

Yeah. Good. I can't give an exact number, but Brazil's, what, 70% harvested versus 60% last week, 64%. But it's been fairly good. As we mentioned before, those earlier yields were phenomenal, but some of those yields were probably from test plots.

Curt Kimmel: 07:51

And if you have a test plot, that test plot's always gonna be good.

Todd Gleason: 07:54

Indeed. Hey. Thanks much. I appreciate you taking the time with us on this Monday. Happy Saint Patrick's Day to you.

Curt Kimmel: 08:00

You bet. Take care.

Todd Gleason: 08:01

Kurt Kimmel is with AgMarket.net joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report. It came to you from Illinois Public Media online on demand at WellAg.0rg. In today's agricultural news, Canada and the European Union are implementing a dollar for dollar approach, placing 25% tariffs on US imports. These countermeasures immediately followed tariffs leveled against all foreign steel and aluminum product imports by the Trump administration. Dennis Guy reports from Canada.

Mike Davis: 08:36

Canada and the European Union are implementing a dollar for dollar approach, placing 25% tariffs on US imports. These countermeasures immediately followed tariffs leveled against all foreign steel and aluminum product imports by the Trump administration. For Canada, this second round of counter tariffs is in addition to $30,000,000,000 worth of imported US goods imposed when sweeping US tariffs on Canada took effect on March 4. Canadian finance minister Dominic LeBlanc made this latest counter tariff announcement just hours after The US tariffs were put on steel and aluminum products.

Dominic LeBlanc: 09:18

The government of Canada will be imposing 25% reciprocal tariffs on an additional $29,800,000,000 of imports from The United States. These tariffs are in addition to Canada's Twenty Five Percent counter tariffs in response to US tariffs put in place on March 4. The government is currently assessing and may impose further tariffs to this measure as well.

Mike Davis: 09:44

At the same time, the European Union announced its own retaliatory tariffs with duties on US industrial and agricultural products in response to Donald Trump's tariffs. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, announced the EU counter tariffs immediately upon The US metals imposition.

Ursula von der Leyen: 10:06

The United States is applying a 25% tariff on imports of steel and aluminum. We are responding with countermeasures worth 26,000,000,000. This matches the economic scope of the tariffs of The United States. Our countermeasures will be introduced in two steps, with April 1 and fully in place as of April 13. In the meantime, we will remain open to negotiations.

Mike Davis: 10:35

Like Canada, the European Union is using a focused approach by targeting mostly Republican held states, hitting soybeans in Louisiana, beef and poultry in Kansas and Nebraska, along with other Republican states including Alabama, Georgia, and Virginia, among others. Back in Ottawa, Finance Minister LeBlanc went on to assure Canadian businesses and workers that there are financial supports in place for what could be a long and chaotic trade war.

Dominic LeBlanc: 11:07

These are challenging, uncertain times for Canadian businesses and Canadian workers. That's why we've deployed Export Development Canada, the Business Development Bank of Canada, and Farm Credit Corporation to help business owners find new markets for their products and access financing to help affected businesses keep more employees on the payroll in the event of a slowdown.

Mike Davis: 11:29

President Trump said that Canada, the EU, and all other countries could be subject to new reciprocal tariffs effective April 2. Reporting from Canada, I'm Dennis Guy.

Todd Gleason: 11:41

And I'm Todd Gleason. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois. Public media, it is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org w I l l a g 0 r Up next, the South American crop production picture is getting a little clearer as their summer growing season begins to wind down. Mike Davis reports on last week's farm doc webinar on the subject.

announcer: 12:22

We got new numbers late last week via a University of Illinois farm doc webinar. Joanna Colucci provided an update on what promises to be a record corn crop in Brazil.

Joana Colussi: 12:33

We are seeing mixed results, results across, regions. In the South, drought has negatively impacted yields, but has been offset by excellent yields in the Center West where conditions have been much more, favorable. Overall, Brazil is still on track for a record, break in soybean crop, expect to surpass 6,000,000,000, bushels.

announcer: 13:03

The Brazilian soy crop yield was adjusted as well.

Joana Colussi: 13:07

The numbers were revised up a little bit compared to the last month's report due to good yields in most regions of Brazil, bringing the forecast to over 6,100,000,000, bushels, 13% increase from last year. It's also worth noting that ConAbs estimate is quite conservative compared to private consultancies, which are estimating between 6.2 and even 6,400,000,000, bushels.

announcer: 13:41

Silvina Cabrini of the National Institute of Ag Technology in Argentina provided an update on the current crop season there starting with a disappointing report on corn.

Silvina Cabrini: 13:51

Expected value for the expected production for this current crop year is 1,929, million bushels. This value is lower than last year and lower than the average, and this is mainly because of the decreasing planted area.

announcer: 14:11

But she says Argentina soy is holding steady.

Silvina Cabrini: 14:14

Expected production for this current, crop year is 822,001,000 bushels. So this is similar to previous year. We have a higher acreage, but then a lower yields are expected for soybeans. So we end up having more or less the same, forest gas production than than the year before.

Todd Gleason: 14:36

I'm Mike Davis. And I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. We're now joined by Ben Brown. He's at the University of Missouri with FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute there, and the extension. Thanks, Ben, for being with us.

Todd Gleason: 14:51

Have you finished up your winter meeting season yet?

Ben Brown: 14:53

I got three this week, and then I think we're we're on the downhill stretch. Of course, this time of year, you start to notice producer attendance starts to decline as the days get nicer. So I think we're I think we're just about there. And and I enjoy these, don't get me wrong, I enjoy these, but about mid March, I'm pretty wiped And so I'm I'm ready for a little bit of a nice nice little break here before my family starts planting planting, corn this this spring. So

Todd Gleason: 15:22

Yeah. The the the farmers are the same way there. I can go see Ben Brown today, or I could pull the planner out and get it all greased up and ready for going to the field.

Ben Brown: 15:31

So That's Producer attendance really starts to decline this time of year.

Todd Gleason: 15:35

Yeah. So what did you tell them last week?

Ben Brown: 15:37

Well, so my my presentation, especially in Missouri, always focuses on both crops and livestock. We have a lot of cattle, especially cow calf operations across Missouri. So even if you're talking to a row crop audience, there's always, you know, half of them at least that have cattle as well. So we spent a little bit of time talking about row crop market outlooks, but there's a lot of questions right now related to the cattle industry. You know, quite a few people are nervous that you know, some of the consumer and and economic macroeconomic signals are starting to decline, and then that could have an impact on meat prices.

Ben Brown: 16:16

There's also a concern about the international markets. You know, week in the headlines was was about Chinese, the Chinese government not renewing, you know, license for US meat export facilities and and what that could mean for meat prices. So I'd have to say that last week, I spent more time talking about the the livestock sector and meat sector than I did the crops just because that seems to be where the biggest concern is coming. Of course, there's there's also a lot of concerns around, what trade and tariffs could mean for for US crop markets in the short term as well, but, a lot of questions about the macro economy.

Todd Gleason: 16:51

Are you talking about herd sizes of 25 beef cattle or less? 50 beef cattle or less? How are they relatively small?

Ben Brown: 16:58

We have we have kind of a big range in Missouri. I would say the majority of the producers I saw last week have somewhere in that hundred to hundred and cow calf pair range. 200 cow calf pairs all the way up to, you know, three, four hundred cow calf would probably be the the range that I was speaking to last week.

Todd Gleason: 17:18

For beef cattle in Illinois, the trend, even in Southern Illinois where it's much more, diverse or has been and far more like Missouri, I believe, the beef cattle numbers have dropped dramatically. Part of that is that those who have historically been in the beef cattle operations have retired or have gotten out. So the trend is just for them not to be replaced. Are you seeing the same thing?

Ben Brown: 17:48

In parts of Missouri, yes. So Southwest Missouri has a lot of beef cattle. Southwest Missouri is where we also had kind of three years intense and then sneaky drought is what I would call it. Last year we had had some late season dryness that impacted the row crops. Well, that also caused a lot of cattle producers to start feeding hay in September and October across Missouri.

Ben Brown: 18:15

So drought has had a big impact in Missouri, just lack of forage availability for livestock, enough pond water, that's had a big impact. I would also say we are seeing some shifts in demographics. Know, that's playing out in the data. Producers are choosing this as an opportunity to sell out, take advantage of high cattle prices, sell out. Those cows are going down the road to a different operation.

Ben Brown: 18:44

Well, actually I take that back. A lot of the cows are entering up in processing facilities. The cull cow market is running pretty high, but if, you know, those cows are still productive and, you know, still got quite a few calf birthing years left on them, they're going down the road to a to another facility to another farm, and that farm is is choosing to to expand. So we are seeing some demographic changes like that, but I think the biggest question is, and this is the question I get asked almost every meeting is, you know, how can I justify expanding, when when the calf is bringing what it is today and the uncertainty around will it calve, you know, that heifer calf actually have a calf and what will the price of that heifer calf be? So there's a lot of cautious optimism around beef cattle markets and a lot of concern around, you know, just pulling the trigger and expanding today.

Todd Gleason: 19:41

So when you roll all of this into feed usage from the beef cattle side, are your expectations that it will remain strong?

Ben Brown: 19:51

Yes. You know, so we we or at least as I think about feed use and total grain consuming animal units, you know, we do see smaller grain consuming animal units, a smaller beef herd being a primary driver of that, you know, in the short term, poultry liquidation, due to to the avian flu, I mean, that's also driving smaller grain consuming animal units as well. The thing that, you know, really helped the grain sector in in 2024 is we were feeding the cattle that we did have a lot heavier. And so we were we were losing some feed efficiency on the top end of those those cattle. You know, takes more grain to feed a pound when a calf weighs 13 hundred-fourteen hundred pounds than when it weighs eight hundred-nine hundred pounds.

Ben Brown: 20:36

So, we were using a lot of grain. You know, as I think we look at the complex, I think corn's got some challenges in the feed bunk, certainly from the grain sorghum side of the equation, a lot of grain sorghum being fed. I also think wheat, is gonna compete with with, corn in the feed bunk as well. So overall, maybe feed consumption declines just a little bit. You know, the economics are still there to feed these cattle heavier, but overall, I think the, the grain consumption declines a little bit, but it could be, you know, quite a bit of changes within products, away from corn to grain, sorghum, and wheat maybe.

Todd Gleason: 21:15

How do you see the soybean market at this point just transitioning some? And I suppose part of that will be meal for the poultry and pork sectors.

Ben Brown: 21:25

Sure. So we we have seen, you know, meal prices kinda come back up. It's ebbed and flowed, but we we have seen meal prices kinda trend, I'm going to say somewhat higher. They were up $10 per short ton this last week to trade above $300 a short ton again. And that's on the futures market.

Ben Brown: 21:48

And think think meal is is seeing a nice little rally here as as oilseed facilities or oilseed crush facilities slowed down some, lack of guidance around biofuel policy has kinda slowed down that crushing, and so that's going to tighten that meal market up a little bit. Then certainly as I look out ahead, I think the biggest thing probably going to drive the soybean market is, and it's a bullish factor is is declining soybean planted acres, especially in the Western Corn Belt. You know, you look at the next month of of weather, and and we're gonna trend warm and dry, and and that tends to really encourage corn planting. And so we'll probably shift some soybean acres to corn, here over the next month, and and that should provide a little bit of a bullish spark for for new crop soybeans.

Todd Gleason: 22:39

Thank you much. I appreciate it.

Ben Brown: 22:40

Thanks, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 22:41

Ben Brown is an agricultural economist at the University of Missouri. He's with Extension and the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute. You've been listening to the closing market report on this Monday afternoon. Our theme music is written, performed, produced in courtesy of Logan County, Illinois Farmer Tim Gleason. I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.