Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Lend Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market reported as the March 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson. He's a TGM.

Todd Gleason: 00:13

That's total grain marketing, the elevator here in Champaign County. We'll hear from Rod Bain at USDA about conservation efforts that are still underway today that are rooted deeply into the dust storms of the mid nineteen thirties. And then as we close out our time together, we'll talk more about the weather. We'll do that with Drew Lerner. He's at World Weather Incorporated.

Todd Gleason: 00:39

All on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to listen to us at willag.org w I l l a g 0 r g or search us out in your favorite podcast applications.

Shelby Calloway: 00:58

Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: 01:03

Greg Johnson from TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com now joins us to discuss the marketplace, anything but the marketplace today. Greg, I think we should talk about what what really, are you watching? Over the last twenty four hours, there actually was quite a bit of news mostly about the acreage report. What kinds of numbers are we seeing?

Greg Johnson: 01:24

Yeah. Yeah. The USDA will release the official numbers on March 31, but we've got the private analysts starting to come out with their estimates. And S and P Global, which formerly was known as Informa, came out with their numbers overnight. And, they increased corn acres from 93.5 to 94,300,000 acres of corn.

Greg Johnson: 01:46

Just for reference, the USDA Ag Outlook Forum was at 94,000,000 and last year we planted 90.6. So a little bit higher on corn acres according to Informa. The soybean number they left exactly unchanged at 83,300,000 acres. That compares to 84 at the USDA Ag Outlook Forum and compares to 87,100,000 acres is what we planted last year. S and P Global lowered their wheat acres a little bit, right in line with the USDA Ag Outlook number, and, they lowered cotton acres, a little bit.

Greg Johnson: 02:24

Now they're also right in line with the Ag Outlook form. So not a lot of change there other than the corn acres did go up. If we'd actually see a 94 something million number, that probably would not be considered friendly if the USDA comes out with that big of a number on March 31. But those are the kind of numbers that I think the trade is looking for, somewhere in that 93.5 to 94,500,000 acre range on corn.

Todd Gleason: 02:50

Yeah. And Allendale brought their numbers out as well. They were at 93.981 for corn. That's up, what, 3,387,000 from USDA's ninety four, but lower by about 800,000,000 acres than what, S and P Global came out with. Their soybean figure was at 84.283, 80 four from USDA.

Todd Gleason: 03:17

What was s p S and P Global on their soybean again?

Greg Johnson: 03:20

Unchanged at 83.3.

Todd Gleason: 03:22

Yeah. So they're higher for their soybeans. Their wheat number, USDA at 47. This is where the big change is, I think, and Allendale at just 45.863. So a much lower number there.

Greg Johnson: 03:38

That would definitely be friendly wheat, if that in fact turns out to be the case, and and it may. So, you know, that's definitely something to keep an eye on.

Todd Gleason: 03:46

The other news that came out, the payments, from USDA, available to sign up for starting today, but, if you you should just get a form in the mail prefilled out, so it shouldn't be much that you have to do. Otherwise, you you need to go to the FSA office. And then something that's important, I suppose, to the PharmDoc team, and in general, because this does roll into other things, particularly for the PharmDoc team and the FBFM folks, the county yields apparently are going to be reinstated. Although, I think, from what you told me, that that's not coming out from USDA NASS, this month like normal. It's being delayed?

Greg Johnson: 04:30

Correct. They made the announcement today that they will release those estimates. They weren't they weren't sure whether they would have the funding for that earlier, but, they must have found some, funding somewhere because today they said that the county estimates for corn, soybeans, and sorghum will be released on May 6, cotton May 12, cattle May 13, and rice and peanuts May 23. So, we will get those, county estimates eventually. We we normally get them in March, but due to the delay, I'm not even sure if they've actually completed all the surveys.

Greg Johnson: 05:06

So they probably, you know, have to compile do the surveys and then compile all those numbers. But at least we get them on May 6, so we will have a number at some point in time.

Todd Gleason: 05:14

Yeah. Interestingly enough, if I'm thinking about this correctly, that survey, the funding for that particular set of numbers was cut was cut as a cost savings measure, and now it's being reinstated. It's interesting just to think about how and why that all takes place. I know that the ag economists not only here but across the nation tend to use those numbers, so they were really important for the agricultural economists to have and for the farm doc team to be able to figure out all kinds of things related to what's happening on the farms, not only here but across the Midwest. We probably ought to some point, talk a little bit about the price of corn and soybeans.

Todd Gleason: 05:57

The trade today for corn is bumping up against, or down, I suppose, against a a moving average. Is that right?

Greg Johnson: 06:04

Yeah. There's a two hundred day moving average, on the May corn contract at, four fifty four and three quarters. It is very important, if you're a technical trader, if you're a fund trader, I. E, to keep above that because a close below that level would signal, more selling pressure. And the funds are still long about 1,100,000,000 bushels of corn.

Greg Johnson: 06:28

They were long 1,800,000,000, so they've almost cut their long position in half in the corn contract. But they still have a very long, sizable long position. And if we would close below that two hundred day moving average, that could send a signal to the funds to bail out of even more corn. So we'd like to keep that corn market that may contract above four fifty four and three quarters. And so far today, we are.

Greg Johnson: 06:54

Corn's been bouncing a penny or 2 on either side of unchanged. So so far so good. And I think, basically, we're just waiting for the March 31 acreage report to set up to tell us which way we're gonna go. But until then, it just seems like we're choppy sideways.

Todd Gleason: 07:10

One of the other numbers that Allendale released today was crop sales. These these are all collected from producers across a series of states. I don't quite recall. 23 states, they say. I don't know how many surveys were collected, but they say that old crop corn this year is now 77% sold.

Todd Gleason: 07:35

Last year, was 68%. How's basis been reacting? And that that's that's a they've been farmers were behind. They clearly did a good job of making sales. Bases probably should have or should eventually start to close-up just because if that much corn has been sold after it's moved, somebody's gonna go looking for it, I would think.

Greg Johnson: 07:58

You're right. Ever since that January 11 crop report, when the price rallied, farmers sold heavily into that rally, and it was the right thing to do. I'm glad they did. But all that grain moving, in a short period of time, I I compare it to a fall harvest. The market doesn't need all the corn in a one month, two month time frame, but there was enough grain sold in that time that the end users were covered for probably two to three months.

Greg Johnson: 08:24

And so as we kind of expected, basis levels, really went into the tank, in re in response to the farmer increased farmer selling. Now with the market having sold back off again, farm, farm selling has dried up, and we have seen an improvement in basis. We're still, what I would call in a relatively weak, excuse me, relatively weak basis, but it is probably $05 to $06 better than where it was two weeks ago, and it should probably continue to improve, especially if the farmers don't sell that last 20% of the crop. But anytime soon, we should see basis levels continue to improve.

Todd Gleason: 09:00

What are farmers asking you when they call these days?

Greg Johnson: 09:03

Everybody's got their eye on the drought, how dry it is. It's dry out west. The rains that we get have been underperforming. If they call for an inch of rain, we get three tenths of an inch of rain. So we're definitely in a dry pattern.

Greg Johnson: 09:21

But I think everybody realizes that dry weather in March doesn't mean as much as a dry weather in July. So farmers are keeping an eye on the weather. I think people are concerned. There are some private forecasters calling for increased chances of drought this summer, primarily West Of The Mississippi River, which if if we have to have a drought, I'm all for West Of The Mississippi River since I'm East Of The Mississippi River. But the the weather is probably gonna be a continuing ongoing thing to monitor because 94, 90 five million acres of corn is fine, but we still have to have something close to a trend line yield to meet the demand.

Greg Johnson: 09:59

If we have something dramatically below trend line yield, even with the extra acres, that would cause corn prices to go higher. So I think that's what farmers are looking at, you know, short term, the March 31 acreage report, but longer term weather conditions.

Todd Gleason: 10:13

Indeed. Here, on on at my home in Mohammad, we've had 3.78 inches of rainfall since the January 1. Six point '8 '5 is the normal, but making up three inches of rain isn't that big a deal at this point. The later in the season you get, if that continues to pile up, then then things start to to become a problem. And I think we make it another seven tenths over the next seven days, so we'll see how that all goes.

Todd Gleason: 10:41

Thank you for being with us today, Greg.

Greg Johnson: 10:44

Good to be with you, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 10:45

Greg Johnson is with TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com. Let's talk more about dry conditions and drought, but we'll look deeper into history now and the US government as it's related to the Dust Bowl era. Localized soil conservation efforts were underway before the Dust Bowl, but the dust storm played a key role in creating the USDA program that now focuses on nationwide conservation. Rod Bain from the agency files this report.

Rod Bain: 11:24

March is a very notable month in history for the Agriculture Department agency known as the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Shelby Calloway: 11:34

In March 1935, president Roosevelt moved the agency from the Department of Interior to the USDA, where its name changed from soil erosion service to soil conservation service, part to kinda give it a more positive name what you're trying to do here.

Rod Bain: 11:47

But just as important, according to NRCS historian Shelby Calloway

Shelby Calloway: 11:52

Congress took up the question also in March of establishing it as sort of a permanent conservation service to combat soil erosion. Clock was ticking. Temporary funding that had provided for the oil erosion service was set to expire, so we kinda needed to do something.

Rod Bain: 12:05

And the backdrop to all this change and movement in federal soil conservation efforts, the Dust Bowl era of the mid nineteen thirties.

Shelby Calloway: 12:13

Major dust storms that had been mostly localized in the Midwest during the early thirties were by 1934 increasingly getting bigger and bigger, and you're getting soil particles all the way out to the Atlantic Ocean. This is soil from Kansas. On March 6 and 03/21/1935, there were dust clouds from the Midwest in the sky over Washington DC.

Rod Bain: 12:33

The timing of that second dust storm was fortuitous for the director of the soil erosion service and champion of soil conservation, Hugh Hammond Bennett.

Shelby Calloway: 12:43

On March 20, just as we've got dust clouds rolling in around that kind of time, there was a subcommittee in the house hearing on soil conservation, and Hugh Hammond Bennett is there testifying. And he sort of used the timely arrival of these dust storms on March 21 to just kind of dramatically make the case that soil erosion is not a localized or regional issue. This is a national menace. Fighting it demands an organized national solution.

Rod Bain: 13:05

And after the house subcommittee hearings concluded on 03/25/1935

Shelby Calloway: 13:11

By April 23, there was a bill for creating a permanent soil conservation service on the president's desk, and president Roosevelt signed the Soil Conservation Act 04/27/1935, creating the permanent soil conservation service in the USDA.

Rod Bain: 13:25

Callaway notes the irony of the timing of dramatic dust storms over the nation's capital, looming as Huwab and Bennett advocated for a permanently funded soil conservation program before congress.

Shelby Calloway: 13:38

That dramatic image of dust storms over Washington really ties the creation of this agency to the dust bowl, but it's important to remember that for Bennett, erosion wasn't usually so dramatic. It's this insidious kind of creeping evil, and he would use that word evil, best represented by this slow, relentless, waterborne sheet erosion that just very slowly impoverishes fields across the South and the Midwest. That dramatic combination of big gaping gullies capable of swallowing farmhouses and these big black blizzard dust storms in the Midwest, choking livestock and blatting out the sun, that kind of thing. That grabs the public attention, but the real menace is this less dramatic sheet erosion that's kind of impoverishing farms everywhere.

Rod Bain: 14:16

I'm Rod Bain reporting for the US Department of Agriculture in Washington DC.

Todd Gleason: 14:22

And I'm Todd Gleason. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media on this Wednesday afternoon. Our theme music is written, performed, and produced by Logan County, Illinois Farmer, Tim Gleason. Let's take a look at the weather forecast now for the global growing regions. Drew Lerner is here from World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City.

Todd Gleason: 14:47

Hello, Drew. I've got a lot of ground to cover. I want to talk first though about the cold blizzard conditions that are in The United States. Can you tell me about those?

Drew Lerner: 15:00

Yeah. You know, we're on our second round of blizzard conditions in the central part of The United States in the last two weeks. And, of course, we had a a serious dust storm occur both last night and again in the previous storm system late last week. And with the event last Friday, we saw that dust blow from New Mexico all the way into the heart of the Midwest and visibilities were reduced. The winds were gusting upwards to 80 miles per hour in that event.

Drew Lerner: 15:30

And just just after midnight last night, we saw wind speeds of 60 to 82 miles per hour in the High Plains region of hard red winter wheat country. So both these last two storms have been just powerful little suckers, and it looks like they're probably going to wind down with the blizzard that's underway right now. Central Kansas, actually there's been a lot of power outages across the Central Plains here and we've lost data. But as of about 4AM this morning was 10 inches of snow on the ground in a part of West Central Kansas. And the winds had been gusting between forty and sixty miles an hour.

Drew Lerner: 16:10

So just a crazy mess out there. And that storm system is expected to move across Nebraska, Eastern Nebraska this afternoon and evening into Northwest Half of Iowa and then to Wisconsin. It'll be a narrow band of blizzard conditions. But boy, if you're in the middle of that, you're going to really be socked in probably between four and ten inches of snow occur easily. Some of the model data thinks more than 12 inches will occur, but it will be, like I said, maybe a two fifty mile wide band and then we'll stretch from parts of North Central Kansas and Eastern Nebraska to Wisconsin.

Drew Lerner: 16:46

So, you know, what I find most interesting about these last two storms is, you know, it's not unusual to get powerful storms in the spring when you get the conflicting air masses and all that working together. But I've also been rather impressed with the amount of dry air that is prevalent in the planes behind these storm systems. And in some cases ahead of it, these dust storms we've had the last two weeks have really been quite indicative of how dry it is. The relative humidity on Friday's storm system was between 112% in most of Texas, Oklahoma in South Central Kansas and was no more than about 25% in the rest of hard red winter wheat country. The humidity with this current storm is pretty low in the Southwest Plains.

Drew Lerner: 17:36

It's a little bit higher farther north because we do have that blizzard underway. But this is all very indicative of droughty weather. You know, we we do have a drought still lingering in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. And it hasn't rained in Northern Mexico for months, and it's very dry in the Southwestern US, including the Southern Rocky Mountains. And West And South Texas are extremely dry.

Drew Lerner: 17:58

So, you know, the weather we're seeing right now from Mexico into the Central Plains is disturbing in my mind, because we do not see the pattern changing for the next six weeks. And if that's the case, we suddenly get to the May 1, which is when we normally start building a high pressure ridge in the middle of The United States. And with us getting to that point with already very dry soil and dry air, there's a potential that the ridge that may develop during that time period will really get going quickly. And we could see a really warm and dry problem early on in the plains and maybe a part of Corn Belt. Now I won't I won't let that go across the to the Eastern Midwest.

Drew Lerner: 18:41

I think Illinois and points over to Michigan and Ohio will be fine, at least during the planting season. But I am concerned about that drying in the West though. I think that needs to be watched.

Todd Gleason: 18:52

So, usually, we would say it smells like rainfall, but I suppose in this case, it smells like drought?

Drew Lerner: 18:58

Yeah. At least something like that. Yeah. You know, we are getting moisture at this blizzard in Iowa and parts of Eastern Nebraska, but, you know, there there's moisture deficits there that have to be fixed first. And, you know, we can keep that deep subsoil moisture lacking the moisture.

Drew Lerner: 19:12

And then as soon as we get a ridge, we all of a sudden bring it to the surface and then we, you know, it stays dry and gets drier. So that's just something to keep in the back of our minds. I don't know that I want to get overly concerned about it, but, something to keep in mind.

Todd Gleason: 19:26

Now turn your attention from The United States to other regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Start with the Black Sea area, Southern Russia and Ukraine. They had been dry. Do they continue to be that way?

Drew Lerner: 19:39

Yeah. You know, they they did. They they did fairly well during the winter. First of all, the only two bouts of really cold weather that came around, the first one was not cold enough to cause any damage. The second one came around and there was plenty of snow on the ground.

Drew Lerner: 19:54

So there's been no winter kill. If you recall, most of that Black Sea region from East Ukraine into Western Kazakhstan, including Russia's Southern region, all were critically dry during the planting season last autumn. And so the winter crops are not well established. But without having winter kill during the winter, as long as the crop is alive, and I think it is, I, you know, it has potential to turn around. Now the weather since planting has not been terrible.

Drew Lerner: 20:21

The, there have been at least a little bit of moisture that has come and gone and will continue to come and go once in a while. But we are now getting back into the warm season. Evaporation rates are rising. We're starting to see the topsoil showing a little bit of a drying trend after getting to an adequate rating, not too long ago. So with the warm temperatures and the restricted precipitation expected to continue over the next ten days, there's a pretty good chance that this region is going to get drier again.

Drew Lerner: 20:52

And that's going to raise more potential trading issues, I suppose, in the marketplace. So people might get a little bit more excited about the situation there. Like I said, if they got some decent rain and kept the temperatures in a coolish range for a few weeks, there would be an excellent opportunity for new tillering to take place and the crop could recover fairly well, not fully, but at least better.

Todd Gleason: 21:15

One last place to check-in on. Tell me about Brazil and its crops.

Drew Lerner: 21:20

Yes. The safrinha corn crop, as we've talked in the past, should be about 20 to 25% of that crop was planted late enough to be vulnerable to yield losses. And that's assuming that we get a normal end to the monsoon, which would be mid April and that temperatures would be normal to maybe slightly warmer than normal as we go into late April and May, that would be in the dry season. And typically we would want to see the ground completely saturated on the last day of the monsoonal rains. And then in a normal year, if the crop was not planted late, it would have enough time and moisture in the subsoil to support it through reproduction and filling and they would do okay.

Drew Lerner: 22:02

But with 20 to 25 of that crop planted so much later than usual, there's a higher risk of lower yields. Right now, the southern half of their safrinha corn country is running a little dry. If the monsoon were to end today, I would be very concerned about moisture, you know, being sufficient enough to carry the crop down the road for very, very long. So there's got to be an increase in rainfall. Now don't misinterpret.

Drew Lerner: 22:29

I think as of today, that crop is very well established and developing well. And even though that it's not raining as much as it should, maybe at this time of the year, it is raining timely. And so the precipitation is mixing in with sunshine and really supporting the crop well. So it's all about what happens over the next few weeks. And when we get to mid April, that ground has to be completely saturated to give that late 20 to 25% of the crop an opportunity to yield as well as possible.

Drew Lerner: 22:58

If it's a little bit dry in a part of that production region on that day, then the the potential of seeing lower production becomes much higher.

Todd Gleason: 23:05

That's Drew Lerner. You've been listening to the closing market report. I'm Todd Gleason. Doctor. JACKSON: