Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the March 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleeson. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Kurt Kimmel. He's with AgMarket.net out of Normal, Illinois.

Todd Gleason: 00:16

We'll hear from Iowa State University Extension agricultural economist Chad Hart. I'll talk with him about the upcoming grain stocks report, and then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast. Mark Russo will be here from Everstream Analytics, and we'll do all of that on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Medium. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to listen to us at willag.org. That's willag.0rg.

Todd Gleason: 00:48

You'll also find our calendar of events in this week. You'll find at the end of the week the ARC PLC webinar listed. If you click on that, you'll find a link to get yourself registered. The ARC PLC decision is due on the April. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: 01:11

May corn for the day settled at $4.64 and a half. That was a quarter of a cent higher. July at $4.72, up a half, and December settlement price at $4.51 and a half, a half higher. May soybeans, $10.07 at a quarter, down two and a half. The July at $10.19 and a half, down two, and November beans at $10.00 6 and a half that finished a penny a quarter lower.

Todd Gleason: 01:33

Bean meal futures down $2.70. The bean oil, 14¢ higher. Wheat futures for the soft red, off a dime at $5.48 and a quarter in the May. July, the harvest month, nine and a quarter lower at $5.65 at a quarter, and the hard red July at $5.93, down 10 for the day. Live cattle futures at $2.00 $2.15, 60 2 and a half cents lower.

Todd Gleason: 01:56

Feature cattle at $2.84 85, down 25¢, and lean hogs at 95 and 80¢, down a dollar 67 and a half. We'll see whether the impact was because of the USDA report on Friday or not in just a moment. Otherwise, we'll move on to the crude oil for the day at $68.97. That was up 70. Gasoline on the Arbaba, 2 Dollars 20 And 6 Tenths Of A Cent, just about unchanged on the afternoon.

Todd Gleason: 02:24

Now here to talk about all these numbers is Kurt Kimmel. He's at agmarket.net. Hello, Kurt. Thanks for being with us again.

Curt Kimmel: 02:31

Well, glad to be here as we start to wrap up March here in a hurry.

Todd Gleason: 02:35

Yeah. We'll wrap it up by not the end of this week, but on Monday of next week when the prospective plantings and the grain stocks reports are due out. I do, however, want to start with the wheat today because it was off a dime in the nearby contracts. What was the happening that took place?

Curt Kimmel: 02:53

Well, a lot of talk of, upgrading the Russian wheat numbers a little bit. I don't know if you believe any world numbers anymore, but, prospects of that crop are getting a little better. They're a little better, moisture forecast for some of the drier regions around the world. I think it's just also too spread and whiny a little bit, selling wheat and buying some of these other commodities back. The shipments were fairly good on wheat, we shipped out four eighty four, they're looking for about 300.

Curt Kimmel: 03:24

Then plus two, it won't be long before we, see, wheat harvest pick up, here down the road.

Todd Gleason: 03:31

That'll be happening in South America, so we'll see some of that taking place. Tell me about rest the rest of the marketplace, corn, soybeans, trade across the planet.

Curt Kimmel: 03:41

Hurry up and wait, type of attitude. It seems like it's up a couple days, down a couple days. Just no real clear cut directions. Look. Price chart, we've been consolidating sideways here, for the most part on the bigger picture.

Curt Kimmel: 04:00

Most, are anxious watching the brackets get busted or getting ready to go to the field here. Tillage work make up for last fall's shortfall in some areas so we're getting fairly caught up. But the main focus will be next week to report, as you mentioned, how big the corn acres. A lot of talk of, what seed guys have been dealing with and, that might be an indication and plus too, when you look at the fundamental picture from region to region it varies. They're supporting larger corn acres.

Curt Kimmel: 04:37

Last year we had 90.59, the USDA outlook form was 94,000,000 acres. Ag market team released their numbers this morning, we're looking at corn acreage being 95.39, so, you know, almost 5,000,000 acres above, 24. Soybeans, on the other hand, last year were 87,000,000 acres, the USDA outlook for them was 84,000,000, ag market team put together acreage estimate of 82.75, almost 5,000,000 acres less, so it's one of those situations, we'll probably go see some more corn and less bean acres. Those will be out next week of course. Once we see those numbers, think we'll quickly focus the weather and what moves the bottom line more than anything after that, of course, what type of yield do you put on that, acreage there, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 05:32

Did you, go when you were going through the prospects or ag market was going through the prospects of developing their acreage figures. Did you put a supply and demand table together? And what does it show for yield?

Curt Kimmel: 05:45

Yeah, I'm not seeing that. They're going to wait. NGSA, in fact, will have a high low estimate on prices. They wanted to see the actual release and plug those in there. But yeah, it's basically gonna take corn carry out down below this 2,000,000,000 bushel on new crop.

Curt Kimmel: 06:07

And of course, it's being carried out, it's going to be in this neighborhood of three eighty million bushels, but yeah, that's gonna be the end result there as you try to figure out the demand going forward and what effect these tariffs have on on demand.

Todd Gleason: 06:26

Looking back at last Friday, there were some reports out related to cattle. Can you walk me through some of those numbers?

Curt Kimmel: 06:33

Yeah, the cattle on feed report came out and showed a confirmation of tight numbers. There was talk of some cash trade, you know, well above this two ten, two 12 area, but on feed numbers 97.8, that trade was looking for 98.3 placements was 82.2 they're looking for 86 and marketing's right pretty close to anticipations at 91.1 versus average trade guess at 91.9. So we're continuing to see a tight on feed situation here. As we move more into cookout featuring here, I wouldn't be surprised to see this fat market just continue to hold together even though it's extremely over bought.

Todd Gleason: 07:22

Yeah. Thank you much. We appreciate you taking the time with us today. You bet. Take care, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 07:26

Kurt Kimmel is with AgMarket.net, joined us here on this Monday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media where we're celebrating forty years of the CMR, some 10,000 episodes, and more than 30,000 interviews. In today's agricultural news and comments that were submitted today to the US Trade Representative's office, the National Grain and Feed Association or NGFA has opposed a government proposal to levy steep fines and restrictions on exporters that use Chinese made ships. It encouraged the USTR to seek alternative methods to boost US shipbuilding. The NGFA president and CEO Mike Seipard says, though well intentioned, the proposal threatens to impose significant cost on US grain and oil seed exporters and to erode America's competitiveness in the international markets. The industry comments, which were filed jointly by the North American Export Grain Association and the National Oilseed Processors Association, we usually refer to them as NOPAM, were in response to a USTR section three zero one investigation into China's dominance over global shipping and shipbuilding.

Todd Gleason: 08:49

We'll stay with actions from Washington DC where the Fertilizer Institute has thanked president Donald Trump for including potash alongside critical minerals in an executive order. This designation, combined with the provisions in the EO, sets into place a framework to ensure that potash and America's other critical mineral resources are leveraged to create jobs and fuel American prosperity, says the Fertilizer Institute. The president of the Fertilizer Institute also said 98% of annual US potash consumption comes from imports. Despite having natural resources, The US accounts for only point 2% of the global supply. And finally today, one of the top grain exchanges in Argentina has dropped its forecast for the soybean crop there by a million metric tons.

Todd Gleason: 09:38

The impact of drought is becoming clearer on the twenty twenty four twenty five soybean crop. The Buenos Aires Exchange now predicts the crop's output to reach just 48,600,000 tons. That's down from its earlier prediction of 49,600,000. Argentina is the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal. The lower output was due to a drought that reduced yields in the country's Northeast region.

Todd Gleason: 10:03

And that's a look at today's Agricultural News. Chad Hartnell joins us from Iowa State University in Ames, where he's an agricultural economist and with Extension as well. Hi, Chad. Thank you for being with us today. I know you're probably looking forward to the acreage report, as well as the grain stocks number.

Todd Gleason: 10:42

I'm wondering which one interests you most at this time.

Chad Hart: 10:46

Oh, I'm gonna argue grain stocks.

Todd Gleason: 10:48

Yeah. I thought so.

Chad Hart: 10:49

For me, I mean, it's one of these cases of when you look at our export pace thus far, export sales, that's been showing. That's been going real well. We know what ethanol has been using up. The big wildcard is always feed. And when we look here, well, it's these quarterly stocks reports that really give us that sense of what's happening within the feed markets.

Chad Hart: 11:10

And so that's a big one for me because we have, like I say, had some positive demand momentum through exports and ethanol can feed add to that to sort of help push this market forward a bit?

Todd Gleason: 11:24

I believe both Daryl Good, ag economist from the University of Illinois, Bob Wisner, agricultural economist from Iowa State University, whom you replaced, would say that the q two grain stocks figures can be a bit wonky. This is because farmers will oftentimes move a great deal of grain in January, and on March 1, it's not quite clear where it is in transit. Would you agree with that?

Chad Hart: 11:52

Oh, yeah. Definitely the case. I mean, this one is it's a little bit of an oddball because you're right. The idea is that we do see a lot of grain tend to move in January, mainly arguably due to tax reasons. But it's also this case of let's face it.

Chad Hart: 12:08

This is like the halftime report for demand. So we're finally getting to see, okay, we're halfway through the marketing year. What has been going on out there? And I like to say, as I'm looking at it, what's a little different from, you know, when Daryl and Bob were looking at it versus as we stare at it today is we are getting those weekly reports on exports and ethanol, which help clear up a lot more of it. So it's still, I would argue, still a little wonky, but it's not as bad as it was, say, twenty years ago.

Todd Gleason: 12:44

So you're expecting usage to be very, very strong in that case?

Chad Hart: 12:48

I'm looking for usage to be pretty darn strong as we look there. And, you know, one of the things is I've run around the the countryside here over the past couple of months is a fair number of farmers did take advantage of January and February to move some crop along. You know, not only did we see them making those January sales for tax purposes, but I think we also saw a few farmers take that price rally that we experienced early in the year and leverage that for some additional sales.

Todd Gleason: 13:18

So given that, farmers, brokers, others since mid February, certainly into March, have become far more positive this marketplace. Should they be, as it relates to new crop?

Chad Hart: 13:33

Oh, with new crop, I I think that's the other wild card, which takes us back to prospective plantings. When we're looking here, I mean, there just does seem everything seems to be pointing at corn for plantings in 2025. And I'm reminded of that old bit about when you're in a crowded theater and somebody yells fire and everybody runs for the one door. You know, where should you be running? Well, to the opposite direction to the other door.

Chad Hart: 13:59

And so that's one of the things I do worry about is maybe we are getting a little bit too optimistic about corn right now, and that arguably should be opening up some opportunities for other crops, especially as we look deeper into the 2025 marketing year.

Todd Gleason: 14:19

Soybeans in particular in that case?

Chad Hart: 14:21

Soybeans in particular in that case. But I think also spring wheat could have some play there. You know, the idea is that when we're looking at the global markets there, I would argue, you know, wheat is actually in a fairly decent position and possibly have some positive pop down the line because we do know that we've seen quantities come down. We've had some worries about some quality issues within the market. So it does open up the possibility of some bullish strength down the road, especially if they have, you know, one little thing go wrong in that market, especially if it could happen somewhere else that could that could lead to some better news in some of those other crop markets.

Todd Gleason: 15:05

From an Iowa perspective, particularly as it's related to grain usage for poultry, beef cattle, as well as pork production. Are things going really well?

Chad Hart: 15:19

Things are going alright. I mean, I I think you look here, you know, on the pork side, we're continuing to be fairly strong. Beef, let's face it, it continues to shrink nationwide, but we've actually had a little bit of growth here in Iowa. And then on the poultry side, that's where I would say Iowa is struggling in terms of usage just because of of HPAI. But when you're looking overall in the broiler market, it has been still fairly strong there as well.

Chad Hart: 15:48

So I'm looking for a, let's call it a strong but stable feed number, I think, as we look out there. And then as USDA is looking forward, you know, for their first estimate in 2025, they showed feed and residual being the one sector that was going to be larger in '25 than it was in '24.

Todd Gleason: 16:08

How quickly can producers replace flocks for both egg production and and for broiler production?

Chad Hart: 16:17

You know, if they can get everything in line very quickly, it can be within a matter of weeks. But for the most part, no, you're thinking months, as you're looking here. Because, typically, if we're dealing with an outbreak of HPAI, not only do you have to, you know, euthanize those birds, but then get everything cleaned up and out and ready to go again. And that process does take some time to work through. So these impacts we're having from the outbreaks of HPI, they do take several months to recover from in order to get back up to true productive capacity.

Todd Gleason: 16:57

And this is something that producers have been dealing with for the last decade, and more recently, within the last five years on and off, depending on what the flyaways were like and how widespread HPA AI happened to be.

Chad Hart: 17:11

Yep. I mean, that's the deal. I I remember first really talking about this in 2015, and when we'd seen it periodically. But, yeah, this outbreak basically came in 2022 and has sort of stuck around the entire time, just sort of washing over us in waves as you look here. And this past wave, this winter was actually one of the strongest waves we had seen hit the industry, and that's what created, you know, this negative feedback loop.

Chad Hart: 17:41

In fact, USDA just released the ag report for February and showed us 9% down compared to last year because we just lost that many birds throughout the winter.

Todd Gleason: 17:53

Thank you much. We'll talk with you again in a month.

Chad Hart: 17:56

Alright. Thank you, sir.

Todd Gleason: 17:57

Chad Hart is an agricultural economist at Iowa State Chad Hart is an agricultural economist based on campus at Iowa State University in Ames. Let's check-in on the global growing regions with Mark Russo. He's at Everstream Analytics. Hi. Thank you much for being with us.

Todd Gleason: 18:27

I appreciate it, Mark. Begin in The United States. We have been watching, for quite some time now the dry conditions in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, particularly in our case as it's related to the winter wheat crop. Have things improved there at all?

Mark Russo: 18:43

There's been little improvement. You go back a few weeks ago and some storms in portions of, like, the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma Panhandle, but some of the key crop acreage, especially in the Southwest Quarter of Kansas, our largest wheat producing state, they've missed out. And that is the driest area. Some of that does bleed into Northern Oklahoma as well, but that's the focus of attention. And right now, looking out over the next two weeks, there's simply no sign of any meaningful rainfall.

Mark Russo: 19:18

And on top of that, temperatures, will be anomalously warm.

Todd Gleason: 19:22

Always interesting to keep track of Kansas because not only is it the largest wheat producing state, it's sometimes the number five corn producing state depending on how well Indiana has done for the season. Speaking of that, in Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, some other places to the south, producers will be thinking about getting into the field because, well, they can to plant corn and beans now. What are conditions like?

Mark Russo: 19:53

Yeah. Overall conditions are good. We've seen, well, number one, soil moisture improve in what had been some of the previously dry areas. Still more rain and precip can be needed here in that northern half or so of the Midwest. The southern areas also have adequate to even abundant soil moisture in some locations, so there's no issues there.

Mark Russo: 20:19

And going forward, the item of note is that, well, number one, there's additional precip here coming up. In general, it's kind of a near normal rainfall pattern for much of the Midwest coming up over the next two weeks. And along with that will be a warmer than normal temperature bias, albeit we have a little bit of day to day variability, but certainly no sign right now of any, you know, anomalously cold weather looking out really into the you know, from now through months end and even into the first week or two of April.

Todd Gleason: 20:49

Turn your attention to South America now. We're watching the second crop corn, the finish of the harvest season for soybeans in Brazil as well.

Mark Russo: 20:58

Yeah. Across Brazil, we've seen here recently, again, drier weather, which has started to raise some concerns for the safrinha crop, but has also allowed for rapid harvest progress of soybeans. For the next couple of weeks, the pattern is changing. It's a more favorable rainfall pattern for actually much of Brazil, including the key safrinha acreage. And overall rainfall now looks to register normal to even some pockets of above normal rainfall at this late stage of the rainy season there for Safrinha.

Mark Russo: 21:31

So a a pattern that features good news there across across Brazil.

Todd Gleason: 21:38

Anything else we should check-in on, or will we talk with you just again next week?

Mark Russo: 21:41

Yeah. Across Argentina, also additional rain here, but it still doesn't look excessively wet to bog down early harvesting and also no sign of any extreme cold coming in.

Todd Gleason: 21:53

Thank you much, Mark. You're welcome, Todd. Mark Crusoe is with Everstream Analytics joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online, on demand anytime you'd like to hear us at willag.0rg. There you'll find our daily programming, the opening market report, the midday report, the closing mark report, as well as commodity week, our weekly programming.

Todd Gleason: 22:18

And you can find a way to listen to and subscribe to it as a podcast. Do that again at WillAg.org or search any of them out, by name in your favorite podcast applications. You'll also find USDA reports there. We'll post the grain stocks and the acreage figures when they come out on March. That's a week away now.

Todd Gleason: 22:41

And there's information from the agricultural economist, the crop scientist, and the animal scientist Scientist here on the Urbana Champaign campus. Also our calendar of events so you can stay up with us and what's happening on the air with the broadcast times and where we might be traveling to and reporting from as we move through the state of Illinois and around the Midwest with the closing market report, I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. You have a good afternoon.