Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report for March 25, 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity market with Naomi Blohm. She's at totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin. And then we'll turn our attention to the agricultural energies.

Todd Gleason: 00:21

We'll discuss those with Dan O'Brien. He's at Kansas State University Extension in the far western part of the state in Colby, but today, he will come to us from Manhattan. That's the home of the land grant university there in Kansas. And then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast too. Don Day will join us from Cheyenne, Wyoming, and we'll take up not the forecast, immediate that is, but the long term forecast for the Western part of the Corn Belt.

Todd Gleason: 00:53

I think you'll find it of interest. He has some different thoughts on what might happen in that part of the world this summer, and we'll do all of that right here on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio with the Farming World online on demand anytime you'd like to listen to us at willag.0rg, where we're celebrating forty years of this program, some 10,000 episodes and more than 30,000 interviews.

announcer: 01:26

Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: 01:31

Macorn for the day settled at $4.57 and 3 quarters, down six and three quarters. December at $4.49, 2 and a half lower. May beans at $10 a penny and three quarters, down five and a half a bushel. And November at $10.00 6 and a half, unchanged. Bean meal, $2.50 lower.

Todd Gleason: 01:47

The bean oil, up 15¢. Soft red winter wheat in the July at $5.59 and three quarters down five and a half, and the hard red harvest month at five eighty four and three quarters down 8 and a quarter cents. Live candle futures up 17 and a half cents. The feeder's 72 and a half lower, and lean hogs up 45 for the day. Naomi Bloom now joins us from TotalFarmMarketing.com.

Todd Gleason: 02:12

She's in West Bend, Wisconsin. Hi, Naomi. Good Tuesday to you. Thanks for being with us.

Naomi Blohm: 02:16

Well, thanks for having me.

Todd Gleason: 02:17

Let's start with next Monday's USDA report. This, prospective plantings numbers are due out as well as the grain stocks figures. Some of the prereport estimates are out. You've had a chance to take a quick look at them. What'd you think, and what are your expectations?

Naomi Blohm: 02:36

Well, I would say that the whole industry has a pretty good feeling in general that we're gonna be planting more corn acres this spring and less bean acres. I mean, that hasn't been a secret at all. But what was interesting is that with these pre report estimates, officially on paper, we are looking at a bigger number than the USDA Outlook Forum for corn acres. So if you remember last year, we planted 90,600,000 acres. That Outlook Forum was looking for an additional 3,000,000 more acres of corn, and now on paper, we're closer to 4,000,000 more acres to be planted, in the spring.

Naomi Blohm: 03:11

And so that number for the average guess, 94.4, with a pretty dynamic range of estimates, anywhere from 92.5 to 96.6, we're gonna see volatile markets on Monday. That's for sure, depending on where these numbers come out. And with the bean number coming in lower yet, I think even than what I was anticipating, we had last year planted 87,100,000 acres, and we knew it would be a smaller number, but now we're looking more like 83.8 is the average estimate going into, the report for Monday. So there's there's could be a room for a lot of surprises, I think, on the report. The quarterly stocks and planted acres report every year almost is a shock to the system in some capacity, either between a surprise number on the quarterly stocks report or a surprise on the planted acres side.

Naomi Blohm: 04:10

I expect two sided volatile trade, And then hopefully, by the end of the day, we'll have a better sense of, next price direction because when you stop and look at how the corn and soybean market ultimately have just been trading in a three week sideways quiet lull, there's a big breakout move coming and it hinges on Monday's report.

Todd Gleason: 04:31

Well, do have a question about that because if I remember correctly, the corn soybean split generally adds up to about a 80,000,000 acres, and it's rare that they're ninety ninety, but once in a while that does take place. However, the trade has 5,000,000 acres missing. USDA this time around has 2,000,000 acres missing in total, So where do you think the rest of those acres are headed? Did they go to well, are they going to spring wheat? Are they going to sorghum?

Todd Gleason: 05:07

Cotton? What other places might they be, and what do you think of those missing figures?

Naomi Blohm: 05:12

Yeah. That is a good question and and something that we're all eager to see on Monday. You know, when I talked to clients up in the Dakotas, I mean, even again today, I heard people say more corn, more corn, less soybeans. And I asked, you know, what about spring wheat? What about oats?

Naomi Blohm: 05:30

You know? What about barley? What's happening there? And and they kinda say, and then they just wanna talk about corn. So I think that's interesting point.

Naomi Blohm: 05:39

I'm not quite sure what's gonna be all where and when when everything is said and done, and, that's part of the surprise. I think that's gonna be there for Monday, but the deep down of of the actual acres, that's that's definitely in question.

Todd Gleason: 05:55

We will watch that and see how it turns out. The grain stocks report also do it out at eleven a. M. On Monday next week from USDA. This is the second quarter.

Todd Gleason: 06:06

We'll be halfway through the marketing year. It can be a bit of a wonky report. What do you think of the numbers there?

Naomi Blohm: 06:14

Well, I'm really bullish on old crop corn. I think the USDA needs to be quite a bit more forthright in how strong the export demand has been and has held in there, especially with our export inspections. We are shipping this corn out of the country. Also, ethanol demand's still strong. So I feel like because on the February WASDE, on the March WASD, they made no changes for corn.

Naomi Blohm: 06:39

The come to Jesus has to happen on Monday, and I think we're going to see a friendly number for quarterly stocks of corn. Now how friendly? That'll be having to manage with the acres part of it. So it might be a clash where old crop becomes suddenly bullish, new crop could be moderately bearish. So we'll keep an eye on that.

Naomi Blohm: 06:58

And looking at the soybean number, I haven't really heard too much what we were expecting to see. But with these pre report estimates, we're looking at 1,900,000,000 bushels for soybeans, and so that is a little bit higher than the same time last year. And a lot of confusion there as far as, you know, going forward where export demand is gonna be, a lot of that shifting around trade and tariffs. And then the wheat number, they're saying quarterly stocks may be a little bit larger, and I'm not quite so sure about that. I think our wheat exports have been pretty darn okay.

Naomi Blohm: 07:35

So we'll see how that wheat number comes out. But it always seems like the USDA, they'll have one commodity that's bullish on a report, one that's bearish, and one that's neutral. And that's been working for them for the past little while from the standpoint it keeps everybody guessing, and then we have to go and trade weather in the future, also trade and tariff news. But I think that this report might be truly, truly, truly the next big cornerstone for second quarter, and it's gonna set the stage for prices, not only second quarter, but in the third quarter as well.

Todd Gleason: 08:09

We'll see how all those numbers play out next Monday at 11:00 central time. They'll be up on our website at willag.org. Any final thoughts before I let you go?

Naomi Blohm: 08:19

Well, I would say just again, next week is really probably gonna be quite volatile for grain prices, not only because of the reports coming out Monday, but then we're on round three of trade and tariff issues just a couple days afterwards and the start of a new quarter. So sometimes that can we can see maneuvering of managed money, fund money through that time space. So next week, it's gonna be volatile. Just be ready for anything, thinking about, you know, strategies in place just in case we do get this behemoth corn number, how that might weigh on corn prices. So be ready for that.

Naomi Blohm: 08:55

But also on the on the chance that they give us this friendly quarterly stocks report number and, maybe a neutral corn acre number, things could really start to climb higher because we are looking at, you know, the tightest global corn carryout in about eight years. Brazil's got tightest ending stocks in about twenty some years. So there's there's a lot of scenarios that can play out. The report on Monday is gonna just really set that next cornerstone and just be ready for anything and how the market wants to respond.

Todd Gleason: 09:25

Thank you much.

Naomi Blohm: 09:26

Thank you.

Todd Gleason: 09:27

That's Naomi Bloom. She is with totalfarmmarketing.com. Let's check-in on the agricultural energies as we do once a month with Dan O'Brien at Kansas State University. Hi, Dan. Thanks for being with us.

Todd Gleason: 09:45

I take it you're in Manhattan on campus today.

Dan O'Brien: 09:49

Yes. Trying to help out academically with some of the, grain and livestock marketing classes. So, yep, an interesting groups that, you know, as you deal with young people that are juniors and seniors and looking out to to their career and where they might go, it's always interesting to find out if they're going back to the farm or to agribusiness or some to advisory groups and just and and I guess this was another group that had a variety of variety of outcomes. A lot of them are still going back to the farm, and that's that's encouraging to see.

Todd Gleason: 10:21

Oh, I'm surprised by that. How how many out of the class, and what size do you think are going back to the farm?

Dan O'Brien: 10:26

I think 10 to 15 out of a class of 33, 30 four were were going going back in this particular class. You know? And it's I I think the livestock industry with some of the relative profitability we've seen of late probably helps that some. Some are going back to the farm. They they may go part time, as well and, again, working with cooperatives.

Dan O'Brien: 10:50

There's one or two people that are going into the mill into the milling industry, so we had to be sure to talk about wheat and, and market opportunities or lack thereof for that. So that was all in play, I guess.

Todd Gleason: 11:01

And I suppose and I don't know that this is the case, but I think it's generally the case. Coming out of college, most would tell you go ahead and get a job on and off the farm, both if you can, particularly if you're going back to up, to on farm so that you have just that experience.

Dan O'Brien: 11:20

Yeah. You know? And, of course, that we we could get in here, we're talking markets, but you're getting into issues with health insurance and surety of of income and and working your way in into the farming operation and and making sure that personalities and managerial styles are all compatible. And as as as we well know and I don't think probably Illinois or Kansas farms differ that much in that, in that some of the ideas of different generations may vary on what's the best way to approach managing a farm.

Todd Gleason: 11:49

Okay. So what were you teaching them today? What was your class about?

Dan O'Brien: 11:53

We were talking about grain markets. They were, this is a class that has the opportunity to, at least on paper and and, on paper to do some investment in different commodities. So, they were interested in in soybeans, of course, corn. Not not much interest in in the wheat markets, but what what really was, eye opening was to then pull up pull up charts of different commodities and just see how volatile things have been in both short run and the long run. And so I've tried to I guess we tried to bring bring the message to them that, hey.

Dan O'Brien: 12:26

It's a volatile neighborhood that you're going into and that it would be good to be aware of not just the futures prices, but also basis because, you know, there'd be a good number of these folks that if they go into a, say, a coop or whatever whatever business, they'll be hedging away some of that futures risk and managing the basis instead. So that was thought thought provoking for him.

Todd Gleason: 12:47

On that note, basis will be an important part of the agricultural energies in any ethanol plant. How are plants performing this month?

Dan O'Brien: 12:55

Well, the last numbers that I had seen on that, actually, it's shown that that the, price of ethanol the price of corn at ethanol plants is one barometer of what's going on is is a lot higher in your well, it's higher in your part of the country in the I'd you know, the Central And Eastern Corn Belt than it is in the Western Corn Belt, and that's a change from what what we've seen. Here on on Friday the twenty first, we saw Illinois corn bids at $4.53, a range of $4.42 to $4.47. And in Kansas, we're at $4.44 to $4.47 with an average price of $4.45 or $4.46. So that's a change from anything you and I have talked about in the last several months where, Kansas with its, well, its Western Corn Belt location as we're aiming to hit the West Coast for so many so much of our ethanol, ethanol output, has has, I wouldn't say it's dried up, but but you have more more, more, I I guess, at the plant demand for corn than we do. I I don't know if it's the key factor, but I see a lot more dry dry growing conditions, dry soil conditions in the Western part of the Corn Belt, and I have wondered if that could be a factor that, around those ethanol plants as they're more concerned about staying current on on having adequate supply given what they see around them than maybe we are out here in the West.

Todd Gleason: 14:17

Your suggestion was that they bought, during the January, February time frame and fulfilled their needs?

Dan O'Brien: 14:23

In Kansas, that's the story that that farmers are being told anyway, and I don't wanna, cause any difference of opinion. But but, when when we did have a run up in the fall for corn prices in in in the February, it seems like a lot of corn moved. And and what, what, guess, farmers that are seeking to sell now are being told said, hey. We're by by buyers, and, again, that, feed feedlots, ethanol plants, you name it, that their needs are pretty well met up up up into the summer. And we'll see how that actually plays out if we get into May, June, July have any dryness at all.

Dan O'Brien: 14:59

But but, we're we're seeing a weak basis out here in the West that probably the the and the bellwether number would be Garden City right in the center of our demand demand, area for for feedlots and some ethanol plants. And that our the the basis the highest basis, most, strongest basis in that area, here late last week was 5¢ over, and that typically has been 50, 60, 70 over. So we certainly have a a lot weaker feed grain basis situation than right right now in Western Kansas than we've had in several years.

Todd Gleason: 15:32

How is your ethanol model in Iowa performing this month?

Dan O'Brien: 15:36

I need to recalculate that. I think that that the what I've been watching and to give an indicator of the health health in the industry is the growth in stocks. And we we have had here of late the stocks numbers in The US reached all if not a record high, which I think the record high was back in 02/2020, approaching that that same number. But then again, you know, we're we built up stocks and are are sitting at the at the at the cusp of the travel season. Then you're out here in in Western, Western Kansas along I 70, you think it's that that travel season's already kinda starting, but, gasoline demand would is just around the corner, see you know, seasonal gasoline demand.

Dan O'Brien: 16:20

So I I I think that this very seasonal nature of of ethanol stocks probably set it may be very likely in preparation for what's for the demand to come. So we'll see. Production, overall US production, very, very stable at Some minor ups and downs, but, again, stocks have built up in anticipation of what could be going on what what may happen. One thing I I sure do notice in the ethanol industry trends is that is that, we're seeing exports as a percent of production, well, above 10% up to about 13 and a half or almost approaching 14%. And and and, again, when you look at look at it from a historical chart point of view, much more consistent over the last well, from 02/2023, '20 '4 now into into '25, more consistent ethanol export numbers than we've seen in the past.

Dan O'Brien: 17:13

So that's that's, that's thought provoking. Really, the only only only only other thing I'd throw in would be, we've been watching the soybean oil export strength and wondering how that plays into or could play into the into the strength of the soybean complex overall and and the production of biofuels. So, interesting. Again, strong foreign demand for soybean oil, because of their bioenergy issues and rules, regulations happening in other countries, has has now pulled pulled soybean oil out of The US off into those export markets more so than regular. And it's probably a pretty strong competitor with with domestic soybean soybean oil production or renewable diesel production, that's what my wife's trying to say there.

Dan O'Brien: 17:58

And so we'll see where we'll see where that goes in the coming months, but it's sure some sure something to watch.

Todd Gleason: 18:03

We'll check-in with you again next month to see how it's going. Thank you.

Dan O'Brien: 18:06

Thanks, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 18:07

Dan O'Brien is with Kansas State University Extension, joins us once a month here on the closing market report to talk about the agricultural energies, which we do each Tuesday. Dan just joins us on this particular Tuesday of the month. You can always hear him again on our website in today's closing market report at willag.org, w I l l a g 0 r g. Theme music for our program today is written, performed, produced in courtesy of Logan County, Illinois Farmer, Tim Gleason. Let's check-in with Don Day now to take up the agricultural growing regions of the planet.

Todd Gleason: 18:53

Hello, Don. Thanks for being with us again.

Don Day: 18:55

Glad to be here.

Todd Gleason: 18:56

I'd like to do something a little different today given your proximity to the Western Corn Belt and the idea that you work closely with some of those states, have you been thinking about the long term as it relates to the growing season in the Dakotas and Nebraska?

Don Day: 19:15

Yeah. Absolutely. There's, for good reason, a lot of, lot of eyes and a lot of attention being paid to what the long term outlook is looking like because a lot of those areas are are pretty dry. And so a lot of folks are concerned about as we go into the growing season about what the summer's gonna bring.

Todd Gleason: 19:35

And what do you see?

Don Day: 19:36

Well, it's a it's a it's a season of conflicting signals, which always makes, the long range forecaster, have a lot of trepidation. And what do I mean by conflicting signals? Well, there's some model data which is hinting at some dryness for the remainder of spring and summer in the Western And Northwest Corn Belt. Not as dry as spring and summer of 'twenty four, but still nonetheless somewhat of a dry signal, at least in the long range modeling that a lot of people pay attention to, whether it's the European model or the CFS model or the Canadian model. Contradicting some of the model data though is what's going on out in the Pacific.

Don Day: 20:22

We're continuing to see the erosion of La Nina and we're continuing to see sea surface temperatures out in the Tropical Pacific getting warmer. Usually when you see La Nina fading into spring and the summer and going to a neutral status, that does tend to increase the precipitation chances of the Northwest Corn Belt during the summer. Another area we're watching is, it sounds very far away, but this makes a difference in the summer, is what the sea surface temperatures are doing off the coast of Mexico. And they're cold right now and they were cold last summer and that really knocked down the summer precipitation in the Northwest Corn Belt. The thunderstorms just weren't as productive or as widespread.

Don Day: 21:05

However, as we go into June, July, and August of this year, we're getting some suggestions that those water temperatures are gonna warm up. So that's another signal that would indicate that precipitation chances in the Northwest Corn Belt for the rest of spring and summer would be close to the average, the thirty year average, as opposed to a continuation of drought conditions.

Todd Gleason: 21:27

And just to clarify, the historical relationship between the things you have discussed and what happens in the Northwest Corn Belt, is much more likely to move together than what is happening in the Eastern Corn Belt because of those same functions?

Don Day: 21:45

Yeah. You know, it's really interesting. The Northwest Corn Belt is right on the border from where there is a lot of Pacific influence and a little bit of golf influence. Once you get further east, it's more about in the summer, especially it's more about what the golf is doing and less about the Pacific. So when we get into the Northwest Corn Belt, we kind of have to do a blending of of the two different scenarios that we get with The Pacific.

Don Day: 22:13

And so, you know, I I what I do see sometimes is is the impacts of what's going on in The Pacific sometimes go further east in some years or stay further west or somewhere in between, and that's kind of where we are this year.

Todd Gleason: 22:28

Thank you much, Don. We'll check-in with you again next week.

Don Day: 22:30

Sounds good.

Todd Gleason: 22:31

That's Don Day. He is with Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming, and joins us each Tuesday here on the closing marker report. It comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to listen to us. Again, on that website, you can not only hear the closing market report, but also our commodity week program, the opening market report, and a midday update as well with Sue Martin.

Todd Gleason: 22:54

Martin. You'll also find information from the agricultural economist, the crop scientist, and the animal scientist right here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. You have a good afternoon. I'm extension's Todd Gleason.