- The U.S / U.K Trade Deal
- The Soybean Trade Triangle
- Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net
From the Linn to Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It is the 05/08/2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett of AgMarket.net.
Todd Gleason: 00:14We'll hear about the weather forecast too. We'll do that with Mike Tanorum. He's at T Storm Weather. Joanna Calusi from the FarmDoc team will explore how tariffs work and what the soybean triangle between The United States, China, and Brazil might look like going forward. And along the way, I'll update you on this morning's announcement from the Oval Office, a trade deal cut between The United States and The United Kingdom.
Todd Gleason: 00:40We'll do all of that on this Thursday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at WILLAG.ORG. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. July corn for the day settled at $4.475 opinion three quarters lower September at $4.265 down 3¢ and $5.775 higher and November soybeans at 10.25 up three. Bean meal futures 30¢ lower.
Todd Gleason: 01:29The bean oil a dollar and 12¢ higher for the day. Weed futures for the soft red in the harvest month July, down a nickel. A settlement price at $5.29 and $2.05, the hard red at 5.24 threefour down 4.5. Live cattle futures were up $1.725 at $214.25 Feeders at $301.25 up $2.65 and lean hogs $97.17 and a half cents down 15¢ for the day through crude oil at $59.91 a barrel a dollar 84 higher ethanol in Chicago Three Cents lower at a dollar 71 and a half and the wholesale price of gasoline a five and five tenths of a cent higher for the day per gallon. Matt Bennett from AgMarket.net now joins us to take a look at the marketplace and the trade for this Thursday.
Todd Gleason: 02:17Hi, Matt. Thanks for being with us. I know that you are not in the field today. You are about an hour south of Champaign in one of the wet areas, and it gets wetter, I think, the further south that you go. How far along are you at this point with your planting season?
Matt Bennett: 02:34You know, we planted around a third of the beans and only 80 acres of corn. You know, we could have planted some corn in the earlier round. We were worried about getting a big heavy rain on it. So a couple of our neighbors planted corn and be honest, everything around here looks really good. We haven't had any toad strangler, so to speak, but we have had a steady dose of rain last weekend about inch and a half.
Matt Bennett: 02:59And so we're drying out. We're getting really close to being able to run, and I'm hoping maybe Friday or Saturday, we'll be back
Todd Gleason: 03:05What'd you make of the markets for the day?
Matt Bennett: 03:07Well, you know, this corn market was sicker than a dog all day just like it has been for quite some time. And then, all of a sudden in the last fifteen minutes, got a little bit of life to it. You know, corn market went all the way down to $4.42 and a quarter on the low there for July, and then I haven't gotten the settlement yet, but the close is showing down just a half at $4.48 and 3 quarters. So in all honesty, I was hoping we would close higher and get a a major reversal there, you know, after going down and and posting the lowest that, we've seen here for quite some time. But regardless, it's a heck of a lot better than, you know, yesterday, the way that we traded this corn market.
Matt Bennett: 03:49So bean market hung in there pretty good. We were up on the day, which is nice to see. Exports were just solid as can be for corn today once again, and it, you know, it calls into question, you know, what what is what is the USDA gonna do this next Monday? I think it's gonna be a a very interesting report.
Todd Gleason: 04:09It could be interesting to see, for instance, old crop go up and exports of new crop. I don't I don't know. What what do you think they'll do for corn?
Matt Bennett: 04:17It's just hard to see. You know, Todd, you know, of course, we're trying to forecast. We did not know, that they were going to put language out that they were going to, you know, I guess, look at the tariffs and everything and factor them in. In the past, you know, they've made language that said, hey. We're going to just look at things how they are today and not make any assumptions.
Matt Bennett: 04:40And, clearly, I mean, we know how things are today. There's some challenges, but you continue to see exports vastly ahead of schedule. And so I agree with you. You're probably looking at exports going up for this report. There's a chance that they could lower feed usage.
Matt Bennett: 04:56There's definitely some ammo in that tank, but I would think that carryout is gonna come down on old crop. You start looking at new crop. You know you're gonna use ninety five three. You know you're gonna use one eighty one. And so then you just gotta start factoring in what kind of stocks are we gonna carry in.
Matt Bennett: 05:11And we did suggest that USDA would come down around 50,000,000 for old crop. When looking at new crop, you know, when you carry that in, it relieves a little burden, but, know, we're still looking at, you know, a one eight five to one nine type scenario. You know? And that is making the assumption that demand will stay fairly strong. So that is a bold assumption right now.
Matt Bennett: 05:31We know there's a lot of challenges ahead, but the USDA could come out with all kinds of different numbers Monday and I don't know that I'd be, terribly surprised.
Todd Gleason: 05:40Yeah. So USDA will be using the 10% that The United States has imposed on everybody, but it's really about the reciprocal. So the only one I believe that has a reciprocal of any import is China. That's a 25%. That should have an impact on what USDA shows for the export market for soybeans?
Matt Bennett: 06:01Yeah. It should for soybeans. We know that, we just haven't been exporting them corn. It's, you know, we've had a couple of flashes in the pan post COVID there, you know, with the phase one trade deal, but, they've absolutely been nonexistent. So that shouldn't affect the corn balance sheet a whole lot.
Matt Bennett: 06:18But on soybeans, it gets a little more problematic. You don't know exactly how that's going to shape out. We know that soybean exports have been they've held in there pretty good, to be quite honest with you, but not near as exciting as what corn exports have been versus expectations. So corn exports are certainly better than what anybody thought they were gonna be. I mean, I'd remind you that Outlook Forum in February of twenty four suggested that this year's carryout number was gonna be 2,500,000,000.0, and, we're more than a billion below that right now.
Matt Bennett: 06:51So, you know, USDA, Outlook Forum certainly missed that one a year ago. I think they forecasted that we'd be at two one right now for new crop and we're at 1.465. So there's a lot of things that can change. We understand that. But I'm a little concerned with soybean exports on the new crop balance sheet to get back to your question.
Matt Bennett: 07:12I would say with lower acres, it's not the absolute end of the world. It's still gonna be a fairly tight balance sheet compared to what it could be.
Todd Gleason: 07:21What are you gonna be watching otherwise? Is there anything on the beef side? I know that The UK, may import some beef as related to today's announcements. Ethanol, clearly more going to The UK. I think just by my own figuring, and you'll hear this in just a moment in a news story of something like a third to a half again as much as was, imported, by that country in 2024.
Todd Gleason: 07:50How do you see all this playing out?
Matt Bennett: 07:52Yeah. I mean, certainly, if we're gonna be exporting more ethanol ethanol has been a good export for us this marketing year, once again. I mean, we've exported a lot of ethanol, which has kinda kept us from getting in a major glut, especially when, gasoline prices were a little higher. You know, whenever I look over at the beef side of things, it's it's like the Wild West. You know?
Matt Bennett: 08:11I mean, you've got these cash prices on fats that are just outlandish. It's great. I'm just super thrilled for your cattle producers. You know, we're a smaller scale, but, of course, we get to talk to guys regularly. And, some of these guys, have said we've got two twenty, two and a quarter, you know, for, fifteen, sixteen weight cattle.
Matt Bennett: 08:31I mean, it's just unbelievable, what we're seeing there. But, clearly, the funds have been long cattle for, quite some time. I think that they plan on staying long cattle. To me, I would be very cautious, you know, to assume that we're gonna be able to export a ton of beef because our our prices are or our our our stocks are just not exactly robust. And I I think it's a bold assumption, and it should be very supportive to cattle prices short term.
Matt Bennett: 09:00But at the same time, logistically, it's just tough to know how much we can export there.
Todd Gleason: 09:04Thank you much.
Matt Bennett: 09:05Oh, absolutely. Thank you.
Todd Gleason: 09:07That is Matt Bennett. He is with AgMarket.net. Just one item in today's agricultural news. The US and The UK announced a trade deal this morning. It will include $700,000,000 in US ethanol exports and another $250,000,000 in other agricultural products like beef from The United States to The United Kingdom.
Todd Gleason: 09:34A BBC reporter asked president Trump if the beef trade includes all beef from The United States or if it would be subjected to existing UK restrictions. The UK does not allow beef to be produced with growth hormones. The UK currently doesn't accept American beef because of its own foods food standards. Are you calling on The UK to accept all American beef chicken products?
Howard Lutnik: 10:03Well, I think they'll take what they want. We have plenty of it. We have every type. We have every classification you can have. As you know, Bobby Kennedy is doing a tremendous job, and he's, I think, probably heading toward your system with no chemical, no this, no that.
Howard Lutnik: 10:21I mean, I think we're heading that way. It seems to be. And but we have that also. So we have we're a very big country. We have a lot of beef.
Howard Lutnik: 10:31We're a very big country. So it'll be it'll be great. Yes. Yes.
Todd Gleason: 10:34Do you want me to tell you?
Brooke Rollins: 10:35Yes. Let's talk about American beef really quickly, and it can't be understated. I'm Brooke Rawlins, by the way. How important this deal is and what this means to American farmers and ranchers. Specific to the beef, this is gonna exponentially increase our beef exports.
Brooke Rollins: 10:50And to be very clear, American beef is the safest, the best quality, and the crown jewel of American agriculture for the world. So I think a really important part of this deal isn't just the ethanol reducing of tariffs from 19 to zero, which for our row croppers is a huge deal, but also for beef. And as we move forward, I know our incredible trade team is looking at all of the meats, all of the produce, really all of our agriculture exports. And I don't know if there's an industry that has been treated more unfairly and has suffered more than our agriculture industry. So we look forward to I'll be in The UK on Monday talking to my counterpart over there for the next really for next week, and I look forward to to moving that out across the country.
Brooke Rollins: 11:30The president is is incredible.
Howard Lutnik: 11:32We could say that we have the best in the world, best tractors, the best everything in the world. And they say that our agriculture is, you know, second to none. You understand. And it'll be a great asset. People are gonna be able have options, choice, and they'll have more of it.
Howard Lutnik: 11:48And that usually means lower prices. How about we'll do you and then you?
member of the press: 11:51Go ahead.
Todd Gleason: 11:51Question The trade deal with The United Kingdom will see the 10% tariff the president imposed earlier this year remain in place with UK, offsetting the import of US products by in commerce secretary Howard Lutnick's explanation trying to figure out the markets where products are currently being imported from and turning those products towards America.
Howard Lutnik: 12:12And they tried to figure out the markets that they're importing from other people and try to send them over to America.
Todd Gleason: 12:18Lutnick did not explain how exporting products from The US to The UK and in turn importing products from the former UK partners into The US would provide a benefit. Last year, The UK imported, by the way, 227,000,000 gallons of ethanol from The United States. At today's board price of about a dollar 70 a gallon, it would be worth around $385,000,000. So ethanol exports to The UK at current prices could double at last year's prices, it might go up by about a third. Up next, we'll explore the soybean trade triangle and how president Trump's trade war might impact the flow of the oil seed from The United States, Brazil, and some other countries into the world's largest importer of what has been called the miracle crop.
Todd Gleason: 13:18If you look back to 2017 before the first round of the trade war, Brazil emerged with more exports. Brazil has increased its soybean exports by 45% from two and a half billion bushels to 3,600,000,000 bushels. Meanwhile, The United States has kept its soybean exports at about 2,000,000,000 bushels. In other words, much of the growth in global soybean demand in recent years has been supplied by the South American nation. University of Illinois's Joanna Colucci has taken a look at round two of this trade war in a new five minute farm doc video that you may find on YouTube.
Todd Gleason: 13:54She says this time it's bigger.
Speaker 6: 13:57American soybeans now face double the tariffs in the Chinese market compared to the levels during Trump's first term. And this time, other major trading partners like a European Union are also affected. In fact, all of the top 10 markets for US soybeans have been hit with tariffs. This is no longer just a trade war between China and US. It has escalated into a global trade war.
Todd Gleason: 14:27According to the American Soybean Association, US soybean farmers could lose about $6,000,000,000 in annual export income. Meanwhile, Brazil is expecting a new record for soybean exports driven by a record harvest over 6,000,000,000 bushels and stronger Chinese demand. Soybean exports from there could reach 3,900,000,000 bushels this year. In addition, says Calusi in the five minute farm dock segment, Brazil has improved its logistics, cutting transportation costs and narrowing the gap with US infrastructure. This is in part because Chinese companies are investing in Brazilian ports, roads, and railways.
Todd Gleason: 15:08Combined, she notes the trade war, the stronger US dollar, and China's development of Brazil's export infrastructure pushed the price of soybeans at Brazilian ports to their highest level at this time of year since the start to the Russia Ukraine conflict. April first, a day after president Trump's tariff announcement, the premium being paid at Brazilian ports was a dollar over the Chicago benchmark soybean price. Brazil says the U of IAG economist is benefiting from the trade war, but it won't be the only nation to find traction in the export market.
Speaker 6: 15:41While Brazil is the largest supplier capable of replacing U. S. Soybeans in the Chinese market, other countries could benefit as well, including Argentina and Paraguay, the world's third and fourth largest soybean exporters. The current environment favors higher exports from Argentina due to lower export tax introduced in January and a more stable macro economy outlook.
Todd Gleason: 16:10Estimates suggest the current South American soybean harvest could set a new record, surpassing 8,500,000,000 bushels or about 55% of total global soybean production. So, as the global trade war escalates, it's reshaping the soybean market in real time. Again, thanks, Calusi. She plans to continue to monitor these changes and bring more insights to the PharmDoc website presence at PharmDocDaily.Illinois.edu. Mike Tenura, president and CEO at t storm weather.
Todd Gleason: 16:54That's tstorm.net online now joins us to discuss the weather forecast. Hello, Mike. Thanks for being with us. Can we start in the two state region that we service on air, Illinois and Indiana, and talk about the weather conditions that producers will be working under over the next week as they continue to plant this season's crops.
Mike Tannura: 17:16Well, we'll see some showers today and into tonight, but after that pretty quiet for several days. Once we get into Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, upper level system will move across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio and that should produce some showers early next week. Now none of these events are going to be significant, but we could see a quarter to half of an inch of rain over the next week once you combine all these events together. All in all, that's not a real big deal, but it is just a little bit problematic because as you know, it has been pretty wet from Southern Illinois through Indiana and Ohio and that's where some of these showers are going to be focused.
Todd Gleason: 17:55Will conditions be better across the rest of the Corn Belt?
Mike Tannura: 17:59Well they'll certainly be a lot better. There's no rain in the forecast over the next five to seven days across most of the Central US. Once we get into Wednesday, Thursday and Friday next week that's where things will change a little bit as the cold front approaches and triggers some showers and thunderstorms. Now this is not going to be a major rain event and part of the reason is because of the rains that we already talked about for Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. The system associated with those showers is basically going to prevent muggy air from flowing northward and so then when that next system comes across later next week it's going to not have a whole lot of muggy air to work with and that will only allow for some thunderstorms here and there.
Mike Tannura: 18:40So basically for everybody to the West of the Mississippi River some pretty fantastic planting weather is ahead over the next five to ten days. The one thing we didn't talk about Todd is the temperatures. Need to keep in mind that it is going to be cool over the next few days but that's not really a big concern primarily because of what's coming up after that. That system that moves across The US next week is going to send temperatures soaring in all areas as we move through next week. Temperatures will certainly be in the 70s and 80s in all corn and soybean areas and we think 90s will be pretty widespread in the Dakotas too.
Mike Tannura: 19:17A big change is ahead. That's not going to last but it is going to be here for three to five days and that will certainly help out with drying in with growth.
Todd Gleason: 19:25Do you see any changes in the May?
Mike Tannura: 19:29Well it's going to revert back to a more typical pattern. We've been kind of in this unusual setup where we have some upper level systems floating around. It gets real mild. It gets real chilly, but that's all going to more or less come to an end. We think we'll see a more typical jet stream line up one to two weeks out and that'll allow systems to flow eastward.
Mike Tannura: 19:49Now this is not going to be an exceptionally stormy setup, but we should start to see some rains here and there one to two weeks out. So the story if you will is kind of blah essentially over the next two weeks and kind of quiet without any real problems developing but maybe not perfect weather especially if you're in the Eastern Corn Belt.
Todd Gleason: 20:09The monsoon season has ended in the second crop or safrinha corn growing areas of Brazil. They came into the end of that season in very good condition, though they do need continuing rains. I'm not sure that that has happened. What is your assessment today?
Mike Tannura: 20:26It's kind of like you noted. They had some pretty great rains from late March through the April, and that's kind of the key part of their season. Now we're in May, and they typically average one to two, maybe three inches of rain in the month of May, But almost all of that is front loaded in the first ten to twenty days of the month. And the first seven days have been dry. We can see the next seven to ten days are going to be dry.
Mike Tannura: 20:51And now we're at the May. That's the typical dry season beginning and so it's unlikely to see rains over the last ten days of the month. So you put all this together and you conclude that the dry season has started. Now how is that going to affect corn yields? Well that'll have to be determined over time but typically you like to see those rains continue through the May because that's how you're going to get a real large crop.
Mike Tannura: 21:17More than likely the top end is coming off of it.
Todd Gleason: 21:19Let's return now to the Northern Hemisphere. Ukraine and Russia have entered their growing season. What are conditions like for them?
Mike Tannura: 21:26Well, Ukraine's pretty dry, and Russia has been in an improving situation with some nice rains for their corn and wheat and sunflower areas. As we move forward, it's going to be very cool over the next two weeks and that's going to certainly help out the wheat crop. And there's also a lot of rain on the way. So we're going to see a big improvement in soil moisture levels all around the Black Sea region and also in parts of Southern Europe. The one tricky thing about this besides being beneficial for wheat is that there's a lot of corn and sunflowers produced in this area and they're planting now and they're going to be moving into their early growth phases.
Mike Tannura: 22:02A wet and cool spring, you know what that means in The U. S. It's not really a great way to start it. You can always get out of the situation later in the summer. But based on how cool it's going to be and how much rain is coming up, we just have to think there's going to be some corn and sunflower problems at least over the next couple of weeks but will those turn into big yield problems that will largely depend on what happens in June and July.
Todd Gleason: 22:26Thank you much Mike. We'll talk with you again next week.
Mike Tannura: 22:29Yeah thank you Todd.
Todd Gleason: 22:30It's Mike Tenora. He is with t storm weather, t storm dot net online, where he's the president and CEO. Next week, we should talk with Mike. But just a heads up, he'll be speaking to the AGREL conference in Brazil, and we'll contact him from that space next Thursday. I hope you'll be along with us for that one.
Todd Gleason: 22:51You've been listening, of course, to the closing market report on this Thursday afternoon. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleeson. You can find our programming anytime you'd like on our website at willag.org. That's willag.0rg.