- WILLAg News Update
- President Trump on Iran Negotiations
- Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net from Brazil
From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market reported as the 05/15/2025 by my extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett. He's at agmarket.net. I'll bring you up to speed on the latest in Washington DC as it's related to the news, and then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast with Mike Tenora. He's at teastorm weather, not here in Illinois today, but coming to us from Brazil.
Todd Gleason: 00:30You wanna stay with us for that on this Thursday edition of the closing market report from Illinois public medium. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. That's willAG.0RG. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. July corn for the day settled at $4.48 and a half up 3¢.
Todd Gleason: 00:57September 4 20 5 2 and a quarter lower. December, new crop, four thirty eight and three quarters. Down a penny and three quarters. July beans, down 26 and a half cents today. Settlement price there at $10.51 and a quarter.
Todd Gleason: 01:11The August at $10.47 at a quarter, down 27 at a quarter, and November soybeans at $10.35 at a quarter, 26¢ lower. Bean meal up $4.50 on the day. The bean oil $3 lower at $49.32. Wheat futures soft red July, '8 cents higher at $5.32 and 3 quarters. The hard red July at $5.28 and a quarter, up 5 and a quarter cents.
Todd Gleason: 01:35Live cattle futures in Chicago at $2.00 $5.85, down $3.52 and a half cents, 4 hundred pounds. Feeder cattle at $2.95 82 and a half, 6 dollars 15 cents lower, lean hogs at a hundred and $4 and 12 and a half cents, up a dollar 67 and a half for the afternoon. Crude oil for the day at $61.11 a barrel. That's a dollar and 57¢ lower. And the wholesale price of gasoline at $2.09 and 3 tenths of a cent down three and seven tenths of a cent on this Thursday afternoon.
Todd Gleason: 02:12Matt Bennett from agmarket.net now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Matt, last week when we talked you were still behind like many to the south of you while the rest of Illinois and the Corn Belt has been moving fairly quickly. Have you been able to catch up very much over the last week?
Matt Bennett: 02:31The last two days, we've been able to run really hard. We've I don't know. We've socked in probably half our corn, so broke down here Thursday afternoon. Hopefully, we can get back going soon, but we've made really good progress. The heat and all of a sudden and the air moving has really changed the ground.
Matt Bennett: 02:51So been in pretty pretty frustrating this spring so far, but, you know, at least we're making progress. Now we just gotta wait and see what mother nature deals with.
Todd Gleason: 02:59I hope you get the parts as quickly as you can for your planter or whatever is broken down at this point. Can you tell me about the marketplace? Soybeans were off sharply that had to do with some rumors related to soybean oil?
Matt Bennett: 03:15Yeah. Absolutely. So, you know, the hope was is that we were gonna get a definitive action here by Memorial Day on, you know, on 45Z and this RVO situation. They said, you know, this might take a few months for us to come up with a definitive plan. And the market did not like that whatsoever.
Matt Bennett: 03:34And soybean oil locked down the limit on the overnight market and clearly it spilled over into soybeans and just a pretty darn rough day.
Todd Gleason: 03:42Well, what impact does it have do you think on the market longer term? Is this a blip or is this the beginning of a slide for soybeans?
Matt Bennett: 03:52Yeah, that's a tough call. I mean, you know, the thing is is that we've really changed the fundamentals around enough to where we're not just uber bearish for infinity beans like we've been for a while. You know, the world supply and demand is not bullish, but US supply and demand for new crop, that balance sheet's razor thin. And so a lot of folks have been hesitant to get too down on these beans. We actually had a lot of momentum coming in today, but as you can see that vanished quickly.
Matt Bennett: 04:20So we're gonna have to kinda wait and see what happens as we move forward, but I'm not very encouraged by what happened today.
Todd Gleason: 04:28Yeah. Conab did release its set of numbers this morning however while it still has a record sized soybean crop and it did make it bigger it was only by 17,000,000,000 bushels that's 17,000,000. It's now 6,186,000,000 bushels strong. How much competition is Brazil between now and the end of the ninety day pause between The US and China? Can The United States pick up some exports in that time frame?
Matt Bennett: 05:01You know, it's been interesting because we kinda felt like, we wouldn't export much at all the last several weeks, couple months, but absolutely, we've, picked up some volume. That's why the USDA had to run us up 25,000,000 bushels on exports. So I don't know that we're gonna see China step in and buy US beans in a big fashion. There's no doubt Brazil right very competitive. And so it'll be interesting, but I'm not gonna hang my hat on us exporting a lot of beans throughout the rest of this marketing year.
Matt Bennett: 05:34The more obvious solution is is likely that, you know, we're gonna continue to export a few, but nothing to get super excited about.
Todd Gleason: 05:41In their production of corn for the safrinha they added 84,000,000 bushels there now now nearly 5,000,000,000 bushels strong at 4,995,000,000 bushels in total. That safrinha crop will come into the marketplace fairly quickly at this point I would think. How much of a problem will that be when we get to June and July for The United States?
Matt Bennett: 06:06Yeah. The US has been quite competitive, but we've actually seen Brazilian values, down quite a bit, and I would assume that they're gonna be pretty competitive as they're able to go ahead and ship to port. A lot of that early green they use themselves, though. So it'll be interesting to see just how much of that goes to export. For right now, I think we're still gonna export a fair amount of corn, but over the next several weeks, that's probably gonna start to subside somewhat.
Todd Gleason: 06:31So you have told us that you have, I don't know whether you turned the corner, but you have gone from uber bearish on soybeans to something a little more friendly to that marketplace. How about with corn? Where do you stand today?
Matt Bennett: 06:44Mother Nature is going to have the final say but when you look at these carryout numbers a 1.4 for old crop and 1.8 for new crop assuming a one eighty one yield, which clearly we have a hard time getting to whenever weather's less than ideal. You know, you've gotta think there needs to be some sort of weather premium in this market at some point. And I wouldn't say I'm necessarily bullish. It's just hard to be bearish at these levels with these fundamentals. 700,000,000 bushels less corn than what we had a year ago as far as this old crop balance sheet is, you know, and you're looking at a lower price of corn.
Matt Bennett: 07:18It just makes no sense at all. So I'm not saying we're gonna rally sharply, but I think right now getting scared and making sales because you're afraid it's gonna go lower might not be the smartest thing to do.
Todd Gleason: 07:29So what kind of target are you suggesting producers think about for this seasonal uptrend if it comes in June and July?
Matt Bennett: 07:37A new crop, I don't sell anything until we get to the crop insurance price of $4.70 right now, but we do have sales on so I can be a little more patient, if you will. Over the last twenty years, we always go back to that spring insurance price if we come out of February at a lower price than what the average was. So I just don't wanna get super aggressive there. As far as old crop goes, basis is trying to do the work. But I think if I had some of this old crop stocks on hand, I would probably be patient and see if we can't get a pop here.
Matt Bennett: 08:08Mother nature throws a curveball. I think this market's gonna rally sharply.
Todd Gleason: 08:12Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it. I hope that you are running again soon.
Matt Bennett: 08:16Thanks, man. Appreciate it.
Todd Gleason: 08:18Matt Bennett from AgMarket.net joining us this afternoon, not from the tractor cab where he'd prefer to be, but rather from the pickup truck where he is making a parts run or maybe just heading to the machinery dealer. One of the two. Our thanks to him for taking some time with us today on the closing market report from Illinois public media. In today's agricultural news, you know, the recent talks between The United States and The United Kingdom was good news for US Agriculture. However, that does not mean the search for new markets is over.
Todd Gleason: 08:56Christa Swanson is the chief economist at the National Corn Growers Association and says India presents a remarkable export opportunity for US Corn Growers.
Krista Swanson: 09:07We have more opportunities, and we have been focused with corn on the opportunity in India with its 1,400,000,000 consumers just could be a really major market for corn growers.
Todd Gleason: 09:18India would be a great market for US corn, but there are challenges to overcome.
Krista Swanson: 09:24India is a big market for corn, but they have some restrictions on genetically modified corn. So it's not a market that we get access, not because of tariffs specifically, but this is an example of a nation that has some of these, what we call, barriers where they have regulations that prevent that. And so, you know, this is an opportunity to open the door to potentially 235,000,000 worth of US corn exports.
Todd Gleason: 09:48If The US can overcome non tariff barriers, Swanson says there's a lot of room for growth for corn exports into the Indian market.
Krista Swanson: 09:56Over the last few years, we have only exported 2% of what their total importing in India. You know, The US is only filling about 2% of that market. And so there's just huge potential if we could get over some of those barriers. And then there's also opportunities for ethanol and DDGs.
Todd Gleason: 10:16That's Christa Swanson. She is the chief economist for the National Corn Growers Association. Let's move east from India to China where recent reports of some progress in trade negotiations between The United States and that nation have caught some commodity analysts by surprise. Initial reports showed China thought it was in a position of strength compared to The US, says Arlen Suderman. He's the chief commodities economist with Stonex.
Todd Gleason: 10:42Suderman says that's because China going into the discussions appeared determined to hold out against The US.
Arlan Suderman: 10:49Right now, believes that it is in a better position than United States because, obviously, it can control the message, And it believes that if it waits out Trump, that he'll lose public support here in United States, and congress will clip his wings, so to speak, and then China won't have to give up anything.
Todd Gleason: 11:07However, the Stonex analyst says recent economic data may be changing some minds in the Chinese government.
Arlan Suderman: 11:13When you look at China, the economic data is definitely turning lower with layoffs, thousands of layoffs. Factory numbers are going down. Their orders are going down dramatically. They're seeing the pain of it, and they're going deeply into debt in order to keep the economy going and to keep the economy stimulated and to do job retraining, create other ways for jobs, put money into consumers' hands, etcetera. So they are paying a deep price for this, but they feel at this point that they have no choice if they're gonna maintain their overall goals of eventually becoming the world's number one economy, number one military, because there's a sense there that if we're not on top, we may slip into irrelevance.
Todd Gleason: 11:58Arlen Suderman is with Stonax. He'll join our commodity week discussion later this afternoon. You'll hear that tomorrow during the 02:00 hour here on our home station at Illinois Public Media and up online this afternoon at willag.0rg. Many of these radio stations will carry the program over the weekend as well. And finally today, US Agriculture is facing many challenges, as you know, but is now a good time to make a capital investment.
Todd Gleason: 12:28In April, the Purdue University CME Group Ag Economy Barometers Farm Capital Investment Index showed a surprising jump, says Jim Mintert.
Jim Mintert: 12:38That farm capital investment index rose seven points, and that gave us the highest reading for that index since May of twenty twenty one. Think back to what was going on in May 21. That was when the the midst of people were basically standing in line to buy farm equipment. So the fact that that index has kinda broken out of the trading range, and when I say trading range, moving that index above 50 here these last couple of months has been kinda significant from our perspective.
Todd Gleason: 13:01Purdue's mentor helps to manage the index and talks about the turnaround in the capital investment index.
Jim Mintert: 13:07You look under the hood at the actual question we base that index on, which is thinking about large farm investments like building some machinery. Do you think now is a good time or a bad time to buy such items? And what's been happening these last couple months, and it happened again this month, was fewer people are saying it's a bad time. More people are saying it's a good time. And just to put that in context, a year ago, 80% of the people in survey said it was a bad time to make investments in things like farm machinery.
Jim Mintert: 13:32This month, that was down to 64%. A year ago, 11% said it was a good time to make investments. This time around, it was 25%. So that explains why the index is doing what it's doing.
Todd Gleason: 13:42He says the unfortunate thing is the optimism is not translating into machinery sales, which have been down in the first quarter. He says there's more inventory out there, and machinery dealers are maybe a little hungry to make some sales, so there might be some opportunity still. He thinks the index, the questions we're asking, is probably picking some of that up as well. Again, that was Jim Mentert. He's a professor emeritus at Purdue.
Todd Gleason: 14:08And finally today, the House Ways and Means Committee's inclusion of an extension of the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit is drawing appreciation from U. S. Ag groups. The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Coalition is one of those groups favoring the move and responded to the news of the credit's possible extension, saying sustainable aviation fuel is a key solution for strengthening US energy dominance. The coalition, of course, is urging Congress to pass the extension.
Todd Gleason: 14:38And that's a look at today's agricultural news. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to listen at willag.0rg, including our commodity week program. As you heard Arlen Suderman will join us from Stonax this afternoon during our recording along with Greg Johnson of TGM Total Grain Marketing here in Champaign County and Naomi Bloem of Total Farm Marketing. You can hear the whole of that program tomorrow afternoon right here during the 02:00 hour on Illinois Public Media and on many of these radio stations over the weekend.
Todd Gleason: 15:30It will also be up at willag.0rg. Up next, I've been following along with the president as he's made his trip through the Mideast. And this morning, there was a press conference in Doha, Qatar, where he made a series of references to some ongoing talks with Iran, International discussions, especially when they involve potential conflict, can often trigger market responses. The president in Doha said the agreement being worked on with Iran comes down to just one sentence.
Donald Trump: 16:15It's very simple. It's not like I have to give you 30 pages worth of details. There's only one sentence. They can't have a nuclear weapon.
Todd Gleason: 16:22The commander in chief went on as it relates to the negotiations.
Donald Trump: 16:26There's two steps. There's a very, very nice step, and there's a violent step. The violence like, people haven't seen before. And, I don't I hope we're not gonna have to do this. I don't wanna do the second step.
Donald Trump: 16:38Some people do. Many people do. I don't wanna do that step. So, we'll see what happens, but we're in very serious negotiations with Iran for long term peace. And if we do that, it'll be fantastic.
Todd Gleason: 16:52Fantastic. But if not, he returned to the alternative, calling it brutal. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois Farmer, Tim Gleeson. Let's check-in on the global growing regions with Mike Tanure. He's the president and CEO of tStorm Weather and traveling this week to one of those global growing regions.
Todd Gleason: 17:27Hello, Mike. Thank you for being with us. You are in Brazil today?
Mike Tannura: 17:31Yeah. You're absolutely right. In Curitiba, Parana, which is the capital of the state of Parana in the South.
Todd Gleason: 17:38I wanna talk about that. Maybe the second crop corn because I think they do have some there, but mostly in Mato Grosso. Can you tell me what you're hearing from them about the size of the safrinha crop and how well it has made it through the growing season so far?
Mike Tannura: 17:53Yeah. Absolutely. Well, I've talked to quite a few producers in Mato Grosso here over the last two days, and they've all been pretty much saying the same thing, which is that they think the crop looks excellent and they're very happy with it. So they think they have a nice sized second corn crop coming up in Mato Grosso. And that's despite the dry weather that started a couple of weeks ago.
Mike Tannura: 18:13They've all been saying that the rains in April were pretty ideal from what they can tell, and they think it's going to end up being a nice crop.
Todd Gleason: 18:20And before we leave Brazil and come to The US and about the Corn Belt here, why is it that you are in Brazil? It's not just a vacation.
Mike Tannura: 18:28Well, it's not a vacation at all really, although I wish it would. It was because I'd able to enjoy the city a little bit more and learn more about it. But there's a conference here, a grain and oilseed conference being put together by AGRAW, that's AG rural if you just look at how it's spelled. And I'm good friends with the owner of that company, Fernando. And I've known him for quite a while.
Mike Tannura: 18:50He's always been trying to get me to come here and speak in person because I do this a lot of the times over Zoom. So finally got to work out and it's been great. I already did the presentation and I think people enjoyed it.
Todd Gleason: 19:03Oh, great. Fantastic. Thank you for letting us know where you've been and what you're doing. Now tell me about the Corn Belt. I see that the Dakotas appear to have, and even parts of Nebraska, got quite a nice little rain last night.
Mike Tannura: 19:15Yeah, they certainly did because there's a big upper level system that's moving through and that's what dumped all that rain you're talking about. It's still raining today, especially in the Dakotas. And the system is going to produce severe weather unfortunately in parts of Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan later today and tonight. You really need to pay attention to the weather, especially to the North of Champaign, the Chicago area, then points on to the East. That's where there's a pretty decent risk of severe storms, but those aren't going to dump a whole lot of rain.
Mike Tannura: 19:44For the most part, planting is going to continue for corn and soybean producers over the next four or five days. The thing that we're a little bit concerned about though is that everything's going to change rather dramatically over the next week. You've talked about this rain that's taking place in the Dakotas, so they're turning pretty wet and they're going to turn very cool now for the next five to ten days. And that's pretty much opposite of what it's been like to this point where it's been very warm and nice and dry. Now they're wet and cool.
Mike Tannura: 20:12And another system is going to move across the Central US from Saturday and Sunday through Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday. And that's going to be a big rainmaker for most corn and soybean producers. We're going to see one to two inches of rain across a big wide area. And it's not just the rain amounts that matter in this setup, it's the volume of rain because it's going to cover such a big area. We're just going see a lot of water come into the Central US.
Mike Tannura: 20:36Now, what does that mean beyond then? It's hard to say because as you know, planting has been pretty fantastic to this point. It's not going to be fantastic later next week, but then once we get beyond this period, it's a little difficult to say what the weather's going to do except that it's going to be a lot cooler. So we're in this change right now from this warm and dry period to what's going to be a cooler and stormier period, and we'll see how that allows corn and soybean planting to wrap up.
Todd Gleason: 21:03Anything else in The United States we need to discuss, or shall we head to Europe, particularly Ukraine and Russia?
Mike Tannura: 21:11Yeah. Let's go there because that's where there's some activity. If you look at Russia and Ukraine, they've been very dry for most of the spring, but that kind of came to a crashing halt over the last four to six weeks. And now conditions there are normal to wet, and it's also been very cool there as well. That's also been a big change for them because they have one of the mildest winters on record.
Mike Tannura: 21:31Now that's a long thing of the past and it's cool and wet, so wheat is probably pretty happy there. The only concern might be with corn and sunflower planting. The only thing to note is that as you move to the West, the rest of Europe, especially in France and Germany and even into Poland, have not broken out of their drought yet. The wheat drought is still in progress in that key area, but it is going to diminish a little bit in at least Poland. So some of the Eastern wheat areas are going to improve.
Mike Tannura: 21:58And we think that by the end, when all this is said and done, you're going to have some nice looking crops, for wheat at least, in Russia and Ukraine, and also much of Southern And Eastern Europe. But the key area of France and Germany will still have been in this drought, so kind of competing factors there to consider when you think about wheat.
Todd Gleason: 22:16Hey. Thank you very much, and thank you for joining us from Brazil today.
Mike Tannura: 22:20Yeah. Thanks a lot, Todd, and, next week, we'll talk back in The US.
Todd Gleason: 22:24Indeed. We will. That's Mike Tenor. He's coming to us today from Brazil. Our thanks to him for joining us here on the closing market report on this Thursday afternoon that comes to you from Illinois Public Media.
Todd Gleason: 22:36It is public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to listen at willag.0rg. In just a few minutes, we'll record our commodity week program and post that by about 06:00 this evening up to our website. Again, willag.org. Our panelists, if you recall, will include Arlen Suderman from Stonex, Greg Johnson from TGM, and Naomi Bloom of Total Farm Marketing. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.
Todd Gleason: 23:07You have a great afternoon.