Jun 18 | Commodity Week

Todd Gleason: 00:00

This edition of Commodity Week was recorded Wednesday, June 18. Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Welcome to Commodity Week. I am Todd Gleason. You can find our programming online at willag.0rg.

Todd Gleason: 00:20

That's willag.org. Today, we're joined by Brian Stark of The Andersons and Dave Chatterton of Strategic Farm Marketing. Let's talk about marketing a crop in a big crop year, generally speaking, and what that really means for a producer as we make our way into the end of the month of June. I think there's more time maybe for soybeans as we usually think of it as an August crop, but corn we think of as a June, July crop going through pollination, running out of time on old crop, I suppose, and looking forward to new crop. In these big crop years, how does Stark, the marketplace generally act?

Brian Stark: 01:10

I think the first thing each producer needs to look at, obviously, if you're sitting in an area where your crop looks fantastic, you're right. Seasonally, we tend to see corn rally through the July or have that opportunity. We're not seeing that currently. So the first step has to be where is my crop insurance guarantee versus where my production is. And I think looking at that as a revenue based decision will help insulate potentially some decision makings the producer has to make.

Brian Stark: 01:38

We also have to pay attention to the outside macro market and the fund composition. The funds are a 150,000 contracts shortened corn. So while it may be prudent to advance sales here, when we get a rally if we do over the next two to three weeks, we wanna look at those and analyze where our rev our revenue return is and make decisions based on a net positive return if we expect better than APH yields.

Todd Gleason: 02:06

So you walked right into a place that I think you'll be comfortable, Dave Chatterton, as it's related to calculating what your crop insurance might cover, particularly if you have ECO, maybe SEO as well, but ECO involved in that. I'm sure your shop has talked some about these numbers. How do producers use that to their advantage?

Dave Chatterton: 02:33

Yeah. Todd, it's been a very unusual year in the sense that we haven't really in corn particular, we have not had the opportunity to see a market or to market or to hedge or to make forward sales at a level above that spring crop insurance guarantee price in corn. Now beans, you know, we have and we are just slightly above that, but it hasn't been by any any big margin. When you go back and look historically, we've got twenty five years of data, and, basically, there's only one other year that that's happened for corn. There was one year for beans, one year for corn.

Dave Chatterton: 03:01

We we've checked the box in beans, but we haven't done so in corn. The incentive to market grain here when you're below that crop insurance guarantee becomes less and less and less, I think, at this particular point of the crop year. Brian's very, very right in the seasonals. If you haven't really started to rally by about the June 20, the the odds quickly turn against you. But having said that, you don't know what you don't know.

Dave Chatterton: 03:23

And we know there's a lot of I I'll call it headline risk in terms of geopolitics, in terms of maybe a trade deal gets cut with China or someone else that's beneficial to the grain. So selling here at a low level and and then seeing the market rally, you're out your crop insurance claim, you're reducing or eliminating your ARC and PLC, payments, and then you're stuck with a lower grain price. You have to be careful of the timing of what you're doing. You need to be aware of your logistics and what you need to move in the fall and when you need to pull that trigger as your crop insurance coverage, you know, whether it's MP, ECO, whatever you've chosen is going to expire in October. So your put or if you will, your revenue guarantee is done at the October.

Dave Chatterton: 04:05

So you have to have a plan to deal with that, but you have to be careful here of how aggressive you wanna be in marketing. And, you know, we're an advocate of forward sales. We always wanna stay ahead of the game, but this is a very, I think, defensive, you know, market that we're dealing with here at the moment.

Todd Gleason: 04:19

So let's deal with new crop in that end of the October time frame, which probably puts us coupled with the grain that has to go across the scale and a decision needs to be made at that point. What are producers weighing today? I think

Brian Stark: 04:36

the biggest thing is trying to anticipate or forecast what that percentage of their crop is in these areas that look very good this early in the game that if we do get a sudden short term rally in the next three weeks, how much do I need to market above APH that I cannot store and farm? Those are your most at risk bushels. Those are the ones we would advocate taking chips off the table today. I agree with Dave. You have to be very careful with the fund composition, obviously, geopolitical issues, but there's very little incentive to be more aggressive for the bushels selling them today that you can store on farm because you'll be able to buy yourself a little more time and see how the crop and the demand evolves.

Brian Stark: 05:20

If you look at the balance sheet, we're still very tight going into this new crop year, and we still need to get through pollination. And if you believe the government's forecast, which some would argue maybe the demand factors are a little too high for the twenty five, twenty six year, there's still what the market has to trade today, and the carryout even with the one eighty one yield is still projecting a $1.07 5,000,000,000 carryout, which is not cumbersome. So there should be some opportunities, better opportunities as we go forward, but we have to focus and be disciplined if we do see a rally in the next month to take some of the risk off the table for those bushels we can't store on farm.

Todd Gleason: 06:00

Can you clarify kind of the formula formula you're thinking about as to the bushels that need to be sold? Is that crop insurance coverage in total? So 85% or 80% plus the ECO up to 90 or 95 times the crop insurance value Mhmm. Times what? Above APH.

Todd Gleason: 06:30

I don't understand how that works. So are you drastically reducing the number of bushels you're thinking that has to be marketed in that case? Or is it those bushels above APH only times the 85? What what does the formula look like?

Brian Stark: 06:52

I think you have to look at that. You're right. It's it's a combination of APH, 85% of your APH times the spring price. So your 15% is certainly what you have to consider. That's your deductible, right, unless you have an ECO product that raises that value.

Brian Stark: 07:08

So that goes into the equation as well. But the higher your expected yield is, the more bushels you're gonna have to use coming down, from the spring guarantee to market. But I look at it as this, not just the insurance, but, yes, that expires at the October from a revenue put perspective. But I think your most at risk bushels are really the bushels you can't store on farm. What I'm trying to say is, yes, the formula, you can manipulate that based on what your actual yield is gonna be because it lowers your price guarantee, your price floor with the higher bushels.

Brian Stark: 07:44

But it's really what can I not store on farm? So if your APH and your expected yield is gonna be higher than APH, it's gonna raise the amount of bushels you have to market now.

Todd Gleason: 07:53

Okay. I'm going to ask you a question that I should know the answer to and that I

Brian Stark: 07:56

can ask Gary Schnitke about. But in can you go to the PharmDoc website and use the calculators to come up with a set of numbers for this? Yes. That would be a great spot to to look and calculate your your actual guaranteed bushels of what you need to consider marketing right now.

Todd Gleason: 08:16

How do you talk producers through that, Dave?

Dave Chatterton: 08:19

Well, you know, it's different for every producer, Todd. And I think, you know, we've done a good job of kinda covering the ground, Brian has so far of of where we're at. I mean, keep in mind that you're there's two elements in that crop insurance guarantee. One is yield and one is revenue. And what we're gonna do in the fall is take your your count to revenue.

Dave Chatterton: 08:37

In other words, we're gonna take your actual yield on your farms as a composite in most cases or enterprise unit. Take that times whatever that fall price average is. And if that number is below the the the revenue guarantee that was calculated in the spring, you've got a claim. Okay? That doesn't take care of the bushels that you need to logistically move at harvest.

Dave Chatterton: 08:54

I think you need to be thinking about basis in terms of what it means. Is it going to get worse? Is it going to get better? And as this crop potential looks like it's getting better and better and better, we're certainly not looking at a basis situation in the fall that's going to be, bullish or friendly or, you know, where we can expect a lot of appreciation. So, you know, two elements here.

Dave Chatterton: 09:14

You need to watch that basis if you have to deliver in the fall. Try and decide in time when's the best opportunity for me to lock that in. That can be separate from what you do on futures or flat price. The two combined are gonna get you the best possible result that you can get. So it's not don't do anything.

Dave Chatterton: 09:28

It's not don't have a plan or stick your head in the sand until October, but it's it's let's pull the levers here in the order that they need to be pulled and and work what we can.

Todd Gleason: 09:38

Let's talk through some of the fundamentals because the Andersons cover so much of the Eastern Corn Belt, particularly in Ohio where you are headquartered. I'm wondering what you're hearing about Southern Indiana, maybe parts of Southern Illinois, but certainly Indiana, Ohio will be inside of your bailiwick. What is the what is the

Brian Stark: 10:00

company and and the elevator system across those states telling you? I think the delayed and the excessive rain we've seen, you could take it from basically South Of I 70, from Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and go down into the Delta was inundated with rain, and a lot of that crop, was delayed in being planted. You could even question if we lost or saw some switching of corn acres to beans. I think Ohio is coming off a crop specifically looking just at that state where they did not have a very good corn crop last year. It appears today that's one of the states in the Eastern Corn Belt that potentially could be below expected state yield production, and that certainly, bodes well for a stronger eastern type corn basis that we're seeing in old crop today spilling over into new crop down the road.

Brian Stark: 10:51

So I think right now, if you wanna look at a potential problematic spot, it is the farther east you go. You could even stretch that into Pennsylvania and New York, where those are much smaller markets of production for corn, but areas that are probably gonna lose some acres. You could also look in the Upper Northwest in the Dakotas. There is some spots that make it very cumbersome to just think that here in a couple weeks, I guess, ten days, we're gonna see, you know, potentially are we gonna see still 95,000,000 acres, or do we lose some of those acres to soybeans? Time will tell.

Brian Stark: 11:24

But I think the other thing on the other side of the coin, producer needs to realize is in some of those lower producing yield states, we may lose acres, but does that help support the national yield higher because some of the other states maybe picked up some additional acreage like Iowa in the West where they were dry early during the spring? Let's talk a

Todd Gleason: 11:44

little bit about Iowa and going to the West, East Of The Mississippi River. Strategic farm marketing has historically had a large presence in portions of those areas, and you sometimes meet on a weekly basis during the growing season to talk about what this looks like. What have you been hearing from those offices across the Western Corn Belt? Yeah, Todd.

Dave Chatterton: 12:05

It's not that they're they're not without problems, but I think the opposite of what Brian said, those crops tended to go in earlier. I think they have the yield potential to hopefully kinda make up for what we're seeing in Ohio, parts of Indiana, Southern Illinois, etcetera. So not that there are extreme differences here, but if you look at the the weekly crop ratings, if you look at the planning progress, you know, there's a few issues here and there. There always are. But the gen the general viewpoint of the crop in Missouri, Iowa, Southern Minnesota, the Dakotas, Nebraska still continues to be pretty positive.

Dave Chatterton: 12:36

And, you know, it's a very much east to west basis situation. We've got customers in Ohio right now seeing ethanol plant bids at 60 over on corn. Decatur's eight over tonight, and I've got guys in Nebraska closer to options. So, I mean, it runs the gamut of of are we going to be able to pull that corn, you know, to the east via the the the spreads? But I think, you know, the better crop, if you will, this year is is in the Western Corn Belt.

Todd Gleason: 13:02

Once the producers started planting corn and or soybeans in those areas, because they were dry up front, did they plant more corn acres? Did you hear that from them? And when you look out to the end of the month at the acreage report, as Brian alluded to, will they show up, And are they offset somewhere else, or will they just show up as more acres?

Dave Chatterton: 13:25

Yeah. Todd, on the margin, I think they did get a few more corn acres. Is that gonna be a big difference? I don't think so. At the end of the day, we would expect corn acres to come down, you know, not necessarily in the June report, but probably more likely in the September report by maybe three to 500,000.

Dave Chatterton: 13:40

If we have a strong yield potential at or above trend, that's really a rounding error almost in terms of what it means to the bottom line or to to to bottom line carryout. So something that we'll watch, something that we'll tweak. But there are a few prevent plant acres out there. And at the end of the day, prevent plant acres tend to take away from soybeans. In other words, if a farmer or a producer is going to declare prevent plant, they're they're 99% of the time gonna do that on corn where it's a more valuable claim.

Dave Chatterton: 14:06

So, you know, at least on paper, I don't see a big slippage in those corn acres.

Todd Gleason: 14:10

I know we won't get this to this until we get to September where we see some ear counts, but our producers in the Western Corn Belt talking about their plant populations and emergence being good, better, great.

Dave Chatterton: 14:25

Off off the charts in a lot of cases. And, you know, almost all the corn that went in the ground in those areas came up. Good stand. We've had very little in the way. You know, the weather has been cooperative.

Dave Chatterton: 14:34

We've had very little in the way of rain, hail, wind comments to date. Now we had some wind come through come through our part of Central Illinois today, and it looks like maybe we're gonna escape okay. But so far, so good, on those respects. And, you know, it just it looks like the potential there is something that folks are excited about.

Brian Stark: 14:52

I wanna turn your attention to the announcement that US EPA made last week on Friday, the renewable volume obligations. Talk a little bit about what that means to the ethanol industry. It simply, I think, said we're gonna hold at 15,000,000,000 gallons, and that's where we generally always are. And sometimes we produce a bit more and sell a bit more than that, mostly based on the export market, and sometimes we don't. I think the biggest takeaway, for us is or the ethanol industry as a whole simply what we were talking about, here earlier that when you increase the usage of soybean oil and crush a bean for oil, you produce a stronger or 40% increase based on the initial announcement of soybean meal.

Brian Stark: 15:42

And I think that does have an impact potentially to margins, in corn, from a feeding perspective as well as DDG. So I think that is the one thing in the market that's gonna be interesting just to watch for the ethanol side of part of a crush is the product side and how much DDGs remain competitive, in in cheap feed, with with soybean meal here moving forward.

Todd Gleason: 16:05

Of course, this is an announcement. There is a common period that really needs to be finalized but would be put in place for the twenty sixth calendar year, I think starting January 1. That means it should impact what takes place for the new crop. Have you thought much about what that really means as it's related to, I guess, suppressing the price of corn?

Brian Stark: 16:31

Yeah. I mean, it certainly could have a negative impact. I think just as I was mentioning, I think the meal component I mean, feed usage is a huge component of corn demand. And I think, obviously, an increase in meal, coupled with DDGs, now you have a multiple line competing product, and it should be very, good for the livestock producer, with potentially cheaper alternatives to consider here moving forward. So maybe that helps expand, you know, some of our livestock, numbers here moving forward, which, you know, will have to remain to be seen.

Brian Stark: 17:04

But I do think that, certainly could have a another detrimental negative influence on corn price here longer term, as it competes for a demand. So you did find a positive a way that was for the livestock sector.

Dave Chatterton: 17:19

Yeah. Todd, I think when you know, maybe I'll shift the focus just to shade, and I think what we're talking about is at at this point in the crop here, the the trade is not focused on old crop stocks for corn. I mean, we have enough corn. You can see that in the basis. We're gonna get by the new crop.

Dave Chatterton: 17:33

It may be a little bigger, a little smaller crop, few less acres, a few more acres. We'll we'll get to the end and and figure that out. What the trade is focused on, I think, is the growth year over year and the projected carryout for corn from this year to next year. And whether it's 1.8, whether it's two point o, whether it's 2.2, the government and the USDA has a very aggressive corn export total on their new crop balance sheet. Most people are highly suspect of that, including ourselves.

Dave Chatterton: 18:00

That doesn't mean that exports stop or they're gonna be terrible. Just means the USDA has a very high bar for them and likely could come up short. You couple that, I think, with what Brian is, you know, is highlighted here. And certainly, when you look at what what's happened here with with the RVO and what it means to soybean crush domestically in The US, it is not bearish. We are going to see we've seen a capacity build out in the biofuels industry.

Dave Chatterton: 18:23

We're gonna see that capacity get used under this proposed legislation assuming that it comes to fruition. And in doing so, we have cheap wheat and cheap meal competing with corn or DDGs in this case in a feed ration, that just again, it's you know, if you look at our two biggest demand line items of a demand on the balance sheet, you're talking about the ethanol industry and feed. Well, feed looks like, you know, one of those two has to give a little bit, and then we go to the exports and certainly those look a little squishy. So I think the bet on the street, if you will, or the in the analyst market, the CBT Chicago market, is that that carry out figure for corn is actually creeping higher and the yield ideas that we've just talked about here in The US only add to that.

Todd Gleason: 19:08

Do you think that as you understand the RVO at this point that it is

Brian Stark: 19:17

well, how net positive is it for the soybean market as opposed to the corn market? How net positive might it be for the soybean market at this time? Oh, that's a a good question. I think it overall, trying to quantify that is a little bit of a challenge. But as we've seen over the past few sessions since Friday, beans have been up three percent.

Brian Stark: 19:40

You know, oil has been up 30 plus percent. I think from those two components, it is friendly. And to Dave's comments, I mean, if if corn is potentially at risk of losing some demand, as friendly as this could be for overall bean demand outside of the weight of meal and trying to figure out how to offload the meal products since it represents 80% of of your crush, I think you could see a shift of or incentivized for producers in the The US Corn Belt to start considering planting more beans, and the bean growth opportunity in acreage starts to shrink some of the the corn, which we all talk about in Central Illinois and Indiana as corn being king, maybe that sentiment's gonna be shifting a little bit based on the market signals for this robust new demand. We looked at that similarly, and

Todd Gleason: 20:30

you can jump in on this as well, Dave. But we did watch that that bean market expand, particularly as China needed more beans and before Brazil became the number one exporter of beans. So it it's not something that producers haven't dealt with. It just has a component within it that suppresses the marketplace.

Dave Chatterton: 20:52

Yeah. I mean, I see the RVO as a positive for beans. What we need is, you know, if you look at a long term chart of our exports, you know, we've been losing market share globally, and we've been exporting fewer and fewer beans. Now we're in a situation we're in a I'll call it a trade war with China. How that resolves, I don't know.

Dave Chatterton: 21:09

But anything that that enhances crush in domestic use of soybeans is a positive for the bean market. I think it's a bean versus corn issue, and it's an acreage issue that that may develop over time. It it's certainly, you know, less friendly outright beans than it is the bean oil, and it's certainly, you know, bearish to the meal component. But that's a crush issue. It's not necessarily a flat price bean issue.

Dave Chatterton: 21:32

So it is supportive of bean prices. And if you wanna paint the most positive light of that, and we talked about, you know, are there positive things out here? If you can couple that, I'll call it added demand or demand incentive domestically on the crush side with the potential, and I'll I'll capital p potential of a trade deal with China where they acquiesce to buy US grains and and soy as a way of accessing The US marketplace, they have a pretty powerful situation in beans going forward. Now that's a what if on a what if, but I I think what's happened with the RVO here is certainly supportive. It it shifts, I think, the producer if I were a producer, my mindset would be shifting a little bit to maybe leaning on a few more bean acres as I look forward into next year.

Todd Gleason: 22:15

And finally, I I wanna take up the issues in the Black Sea, the war between Russia and Ukraine, the issues in The Middle East, the war between Iran and Iraq. We're recording on Wednesday afternoon, we don't have, for most people who are listening to this on one of the radio stations, information that took place over the intervening forty eight hours. But I do wanna take take a larger look at that and discuss how the world might deal with both Russia and Iran if they were to institute more sanctions against each as opposed to what an active hot war might mean and how that would impact the marketplace over time. So and it it may or may not include China, particularly as it's related to Russia. But if the world were to impose sanctions on Iran, which produces oil, and that was unable to get through, and they were to impose sanctions on Russia.

Todd Gleason: 23:27

And if China were to agree to do that as part of some kind of trade agreement, What impact does that have on the marketplace, and how does it change the situation?

Brian Stark: 23:38

Well, I think certainly we've seen that, reaction a little bit in the price of crude oil here over the last few days as things have escalated over in The Middle East. And I I didn't look here recently, but yesterday, I think oil was around $75 a barrel. I think, obviously, the higher that goes, that certainly, spurs a little bit better demand for ethanol, and I think that's positive for the corn front. In turn, you can look at what the wheat market did today. The first market we see react anytime these geopolitical issues come up seems to be wheat.

Brian Stark: 24:10

Wheat tends to be the leader in that. And I think fundamentally, the demand and the ending carryout, I don't think is driving the meat wheat action right now. It's simply the macro influence of of fear. And I think, you know, from that perspective, wheat obviously could be something that leads the rest of

Dave Chatterton: 24:27

the

Brian Stark: 24:27

market higher as it's been known to do in the past.

Dave Chatterton: 24:32

Yeah. You know, Todd, start with the oil real quick. I mean, Russia is a top three exporter, US, Saudi Arabia, Russia. It's a very important, you know, and that's without the shipping or logistical issues that may or may not develop in the Black Sea. You throw Iran into that situation, obviously, not a huge export of oil, right around 1,800,000 barrels per day.

Dave Chatterton: 24:50

But certainly, if they upset the apple cart in terms of shipping logistics, military operations in The Gulf, we have a much bigger situation. You have the Strait Of Hormoz where 20% of all oil every day, you know, all the all oil demand goes through on a daily basis. So if we if we lose those, certainly, we have an issue. But to you know, the bigger point here is wheat remains the canary in the coal mine. And to Brian's point, funds are heavily short wheat.

Dave Chatterton: 25:19

They they covered some pretty aggressively today. We had a $26.07 cent move in in wheat today or 25¢ move in wheat. And I think that's the issue. You look at the wheat that's produced and exported by Russia, Ukraine, Iran being a huge importer of wheat, and certainly, there's a lot of moving parts in that situation. The unknown right now, the first thing that they're gonna do is cover those shorts or cover a bigger portion of those shorts as we go forward.

Dave Chatterton: 25:42

I think that's what happened today as we've led into what is a pseudo holiday weekend or a short trading, you know, a less populated trading day on Friday. Having said that, like I said, I think, you know, that's where the the those are the two biggest elements, the oil complex, the wheat complex. And, certainly, if wheat's gonna go higher, it's gonna be a benefit to the row crops here that we have.

Todd Gleason: 26:02

Important to watch those developing functions. OPEC, of course, started in 1960, I believe. Iran, one of the founding members along with Iraq, Saudi Arabia there, You already mentioned as one of the three largest producers of crude oil on the planet. It and Russia, which is a member of OPEC plus, about equal in the size of their daily output along with The United States. 41% of the oil on the planet is produced by OPEC plus.

Todd Gleason: 26:36

That includes Venezuela, but those Middle East and Russian countries primarily. I think Saudi Arabia is an important player in this as it relates to what happens on the world stage. It'll be interesting to see how that all plays out.

Dave Chatterton: 26:52

I think you're right, Todd. And look at what has Saudi done here of late. In the last two OPEC meetings, we've had outsized increases in production. They're adding production at a time when, excuse me, oil prices have set back at least until late here. And they're doing so and I'm not saying there's any coordination there or that they that they knew what was happening or working with The US, but certainly they're bringing more oil onto the market under the guise of we want to protect our market share.

Dave Chatterton: 27:17

I think the important thing is Iran is exporting somewhere around 1,800,000 barrels of crude per day. Saudi Arabia is closer to 12, but the spare capacity within OPEC plus, which is 80% Saudi Arabia, is probably close to five to 6,000,000 barrels per day. So lose two, will the others make up for that? I would argue that they probably will, and I think they've shown their hand and that they're that they're willing to do that and take that market share if it's available. I don't know how it turns out, but I think the oil situation is more of a logistical or a transport situation.

Dave Chatterton: 27:49

If there's a problem in the straight Hormos, you know, at its narrowest point, it's about 20 miles wide. The navigation channel is about four miles wide. So even a country that may have lost a lot of its military capability in the sense of of the war that or the the destruction that's happened inside of Iran could probably still do something in a four mile corridor, and it's a very important shipping channel to do that. My fear here is that the longer that this goes on and that, that military action is taking place and people are getting killed inside of Iran, the more I don't know if desperate is the right term they become become, the more they get backed into a corner, I think the less rationale they're gonna put behind their response and the more danger we have of an issue that that grows wider, if you will.

Todd Gleason: 28:34

Let's wrap up now. We'll get a final thought from each of you as it's related to the commodity markets. Brian Stark of the Andersons. I'll start with you for the day.

Brian Stark: 28:43

I think the biggest thing I want producers to recognize, we haven't spent a lot of time talking about old crop because the season's about over. But to Dave's point, corn basis is extremely strong in the Eastern areas of Indiana and Ohio. I think, obviously, we have not seen that same strength in Illinois. That's been kind of an interesting dichotomy. We've seen the spreads kind of collapse here, over the past couple of weeks, in a very tight carryout scenario because the river seems to have a well supplied market.

Brian Stark: 29:13

That's been an interesting dynamic. I think basis strength certainly needs to be paid attention to. On the flip, we look at the soybean market, which ironically saw quite a bit of volatility in old crop basis with a large end user essentially fading to new crop bids prior to the RVO announcement last Friday, given poor crush in the past, six to eight months, and it's interesting to see how the rest of the market reacted. So I think the question or the comment that I want everybody to recognize, the next sixty days, ninety days, whether it's macro, whether it's fundamental, there's gonna be a lot of volatility. And I think producers need to be willing to act when the market gives them a good opportunity, whether that be old or new crop.

Todd Gleason: 29:57

Dave Chatterton of strategic farm marketing, your final word?

Dave Chatterton: 30:01

Yeah. I think I'll pick up where Ryan left off. You hit the nail on the head. The next sixty days are gonna be very important for the market in general in terms of price. We've done a good job of talking about old crop, but let's not forget about new crop as well.

Dave Chatterton: 30:12

When we look out there, we've got some carry in this marketplace, and we're approaching a level that, I'll say, $4.75 on new crop corn, $10.90, $11 on new crop beans, or maybe, you know, $5.50, $5.60 on that new crop wheat are all generally profitable for a number of producers. So I know we're struggling with the remainder of old crop here. Let's not forget about new crop as and especially as it relates to crop insurance that there are some opportunities out there for 26. You know, don't this is an environment where we're playing defense in terms of marketing and staying ahead of the game and looking at levels that you can identify as profitable are important. Those are some of the good things that we can make out of the market today and and things that you can concentrate on.

Todd Gleason: 30:55

Commodity week is a production of Illinois Public Media. This program was recorded on Wednesday, June. Our thanks go to Strategic Farm Marketing's Dave Chatterton and Brian Stark of The Andersons. You can always listen to the whole of the program anytime you'd like on our website at willag.org. That's willag.0rg.

Todd Gleason: 31:17

Or search it out by name in your favorite podcast applications. Look for commodity week. I'm University of Illinois Extensions, Todd Gleason.