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May 23 | Commodity Week

Episode Number
Date Published
Episode Show Notes / Description
 - Dave Chatterton,
 - Curt Kimmel,
 - Wayne Nelson, L&M Commodities



Todd Gleason 0:00
This is the May 23 edition of Commodity Week. 

Todd Gleason Services are made available to while by University of Illinois Extension. 

Welcome to Commodity Week. I am Todd Gleason. Our panelists for the day include Curt Kimmel with Wayne Nelson joins us again from L and M Commodities. And we're also joined by Dave Chatterton at Strategic Farm Marketing. Commodity Week is a production of Illinois Public Media. It's public radio for the farming world, where you can listen to our podcasts any time you like including Commodity Week, the Closing Market Report and the Illinois Nutrient Loss Reduction podcast from our website at Let's get a quick list of items that maybe we ought to take up for this Thursday afternoon as we're recording before Memorial Day weekend. Curt Kimmel, what's been on your mind? 

Curt Kimmel 0:57
Well, the main thing is what do we do now? We've got the help we've wanted. And also to we were in this situation where we got a three day weekend and a full moon. 

Todd Gleason 1:09
Dave Chatterton, the full moon returns. The last time you were here, we talked about full moon. I think it must have to do with you. 

Dave Chatterton 1:17
Here we go. Yeah, but no, I mean, you know, look, we're into the situation now. We're marketing from a, let's say, percent sold perspective, Todd. I mean, you should be caught up to a comfortable level. The next step. Where do we go from here and what's going to go on? Seasonally? We've got a small window here where prices could continue to go higher, particularly for corn, maybe a little longer window on beans. But it's weather, weather, weather and the weather focus has been a little bit more outside of the US to this point. So the Black Sea region and the wheat crop in Russia and Ukraine and in South America, with the flooding in southern Brazil and the corn, you know, disease in Argentina. But now it's back to the US. We're in a situation where the plant planting is getting there. We can see over the horizon those producers are either very close to being done, maybe have a day or two left or actually done, and now it's about okay, how is this crop and develop. I would suspect when we come out in early June, we're going to have some pretty highly rated crops because of our moisture situation. And you know, where is this summer going to go and what does that mean for prices in terms of how you manage your risk on the farm? 

Todd Gleason 2:17
And Wayne Nelson historical context or current things that you've been thinking about? 

Wayne Nelson 2:21
Well, I think, you know, the one thing always that comes up is the weather. You know, we've got a couple of things going on. We see some delays because of some heavy rains. We looked around that way. But I think the weather, how it's been in Russia, in China, you know, even in the Ukraine and everything, we've got some other problems around the world that are really popping up and looking at this stuff. So and then I think the biggest thing that probably we've got to think about and look about now is what how many acres actually got planted when it's said and done, when the prices were down there and then when it rained and put people on a while, did they cut back a few acres or did they go ahead and plant full bore? 

Todd Gleason 2:57
So I do want to talk about acreage and planted acreage. But in terms of at least something that maybe should be dismissed at this point, replant or acres that might be replant, because a lot of producers, many others will be thinking, hey, we're hearing about all this replant. Surely that means something. But it's a little here and a little there. Does it is it okay just just to dismiss that as a an issue, at least up until this point, unless we get a whole lot more rain next week? The following week as well, I'm going to say, yes, everybody agrees. So we'll move on from that. Now, what happens then if we do get slowed down next week, especially in Iowa and parts of the Western Corn Belt? 

Curt Kimmel 3:45
Well, I go back to 93. The market really didn't care until the levees broke in July, down oh, Mississippi. Then the market took a attention to it. As of prior to this recording here a week ago, we had about 7 million acres in the east and 5 million acres in the west to be planted. Yep, the forecast can get a pretty good window here for the east to get caught up visit with guys in Iowa. You know, they're coming down to having to make a decision here because they're going to get another round of rain here. My question to the crop insurance guys here today is, okay, we get down to it. What's the guy's feelings? Prevent plant? There's not prevent plant. But that's mainly the Dakotas and they're pretty far along. But is it economical to take prevent plant these prices? 

Dave Chatterton 4:32
Yeah, it's a very it's a very individual decision and I think in most cases what the first thing I would Duane's point, the first thing I would say is that traditional road crop producers and in the ice states are very low, they're very adverse to taking prevent plant. It has a number of different applications. It can affect your EPA, you can do different things. It's a number of different rules and pitfalls that you can follow. In terms of are you planning a cover crop and are you saying raising it? Is it going to be harvested for grain? And all these choices that go along with it doesn't mean you shouldn't consider it average prevent point. Right now for someone who's in an 80 to 85% R.P. crop insurance policy at a 466 frame price is probably 350 to $500 In most of the states, closer to that 500. So cash rents in those areas certainly will say north of 300. And, you know, maybe there's a little bit of meat on the bone there, but it's a last resort. Keep in mind that just because we get the last planning dates for corn in these areas that we're talking about typically are June the fifth, May, maybe the 31st out in parts of the Dakotas, but Illinois and Iowa, June 5th. Beyond that, you're losing 1% of your revenue guarantee per day for the next 25 days. So you can plant past that late period. But as you said, Kurt, it's a it's a tough decision. I think the other decision, as you know, is it's not just prevent plant or nothing. It's prevent plant or another crop prevent plant or a cover crop prevent plant or a crop that I might you know, I might lease the ground out. I might, you know, hay it and graze it. So a lot of lot going on there. Make sure you're comfortable with where you're at before you make that decision and talk with your agent. 

Todd Gleason 6:06
I'll stay with you for just a moment because there will be this discussion related to the late planting of the acres that are still available to put in the ground. The decision to change acreage to, for instance, soybeans generally, we talk about it, Darryl Good would say not happening very often. What about this year? 

Dave Chatterton 6:29
Yeah, it's not that common, particularly in our particular if the years that we're talking to an answer of central Illinois, central Indiana, we just don't see a lot of it. You know, nitrogen could be down, there could be, you know, things that prevent that from happening. That being said, if that's going to happen, we have the recipe for it to happen this year. But you're talking, in my opinion, anyway, about a swing factor of one or 2% and just not enough to move the needle and, you know, one or 2% in the areas that are where that may switch. In the overall big picture, you get that watered down to a point where I don't think it's a driving force in terms of how we're going to do pricing in the marketplace. 

Todd Gleason 7:06
You're not talking about one or 2% of total acreage, meaning that million acres for soybean shifting. You're talking about one or 2% of the available plant late planted acres. 

Dave Chatterton 7:17
And early available. They planted acres in those. What areas? Yeah. 

Todd Gleason 7:22
Yeah. So much smaller. It's much smaller number. Okay. With that out of the way. I mean, there are a lot more fundamentals that we need to discuss, but I do want to come back again to you, Kurt, because you mentioned we've had the rally, we've had a pricing opportunity where farmers could, in your opinion, at taking care of cleaning up old crop corn. And did they make new crop? Should they be in a comfortable position, at least at this point in sales? 

Curt Kimmel 7:50
Have not. There was some scale up selling for the most part, but if you go back a month, you know, 30 cent up in corn, 50% up in beans was in some goals and were basically there. So we can't feel we're point where we need to make some catch up sales or at least try to raise your price floor somewhat in through here three day weekend we'll come back here and see which way the wind's blowing. But for the most part, next upside targets is going to be 55 or three days corn in this for not four, but 1245 1250 in the November soybeans. That is important to stay focused in through here because this is the spring rally we've been waiting for. 

Wayne Nelson 8:32
Well, toward the 200 day moving average is for 93 of the 50 and 100 day or two for the 102 hundred day moving average is good, used by a lot of the funds now. And they really watch that. And I think that that 493 has a chance to 513 is out there like that. But I'd start selling that that 492 area myself. I think that's close enough to $5 and I think that's something that when the time the year comes around to an end, that's probably going to be a good price. You talked about the acres going out, not planning. Farmers like to farm. They like they don't like to look at an empty field out there. They don't want to do that. If they have a chance, they're going to plant a crop 95% of the time, even if it is late and going on like that. But I think I see right now, I think that we should have some sales made here because full moons generally do not good things. You know, Curt has the almanac I had full moon chart and basically the generally don't do good things. I think that there should be some sales made here. And then I think that your next increment should be sold at the 200 day moving average or just below it before it gets there. 

Todd Gleason 9:44
Let me put it in a different context. Full Moons, Memorial Day Seasonals. What do they mean at this point? 

Dave Chatterton 9:50
I can't tell you anything about the moon. I'm going to stay away from that one, but I can tell you that seasonals are based on historical price action, right? Every year is different. Any year can, can, can be you know, can go outside the norm, if you will, Todd But if you go back and you look, you know, the way I would view it, I look at a five year seasonal on December corn, a ten year seasonal on December corn in a 15 year seasonal on December corn, if you're going to play the odds. So to speak, the odds would tell you that by the middle of June, it's very the odds quickly turn against you in terms of continuing to rally the corn market. So go back to that marketing question and you've had more like a 45, almost 50% rally from the lows in corn. You need to be you know, you should have been selling into that. And we've seen our customers have gotten caught up to a point where they're comfortable, you know, have offers above the market At Duane's point, if we get into that 94, 95 or 93 or 98, slightly $5 plus area, be you know, be ready to do that. But when you look at the combination of funds having reduced this this very large short across the board to some very manageable levels, you know, nothing to see here. They can't go along. But I don't think we have the weather or the fundamental recipe to make that happen at the moment. So from a timing perspective, the closer we're getting to that mid-June point and I'm talking about corn, in this case, it's more like mid-July for beans, the more aggressive you're going to have to be with those offers. And I think you need to be have a plan and be ready to to pull the trigger and, you know, have your you know, the selling season shouldn't be in park and should be in drive maybe your foot on the brake right now. But you have to be ready. 

Todd Gleason 11:25
Standing offers, but not standing offers that you pull. 

Curt Kimmel 11:28
In cancel with closing. It's very, very poplar. 

Todd Gleason 11:34
Only if the moon circles the right way. 

Curt Kimmel 11:37
Which way? The moon node is on the full moon. So yeah, we'll dig in there. But this is simple thing is if you could have a $12 floor on beans but have the option to sell 13 to go up, you can't beat that same thing on corn or for 84, 90 price floor. It goes to 550 had the option or the ability to go ahead and have an open position here to be able to make those sales they're doing getting better. Now, keep it simple. 

Todd Gleason 12:04
How do you do that? 

Curt Kimmel 12:06
Basically, you put price floors in is putting a good option underneath you and that leaves your upside open is kind of hard to pull. The trigger on cash sells aggressively here when you just now mainly got the crop in the ground you guys feel more comfortable marketing now since the crops in the ground in an up so the key is to have the floor you're better off in the spring price but quite a bit through here. So the bottom line is and past history is try to improve your bottom line. 

Todd Gleason 12:32
I swear I thought he was going to say call one 800. 

Wayne Nelson 12:38
Well, there you go. You know, Curt's right. I mean, basically, we had the opportunity earlier in the year to put some good puts underneath this market, and it was pretty sick. But a couple of months ago. And I'll tell you what, they had a nice rally in here. We've come back. We said if we got to these levels, we'd be happy. The one thing that farmers are telling me and they talked to them is, you know, it's still two, $3 less than last year and I didn't make much money when we total everything out last year. So with the cost of all this machinery we talked about, you can plant 350 acres in an afternoon with these new speedy planters. We talked about everything that we've been, all that's money. And I think that farmers are going to have a lot tighter budget to work with this year. And I think but I think they need to say we got to get through this year. Well, we get through this, we'll get through the election, we'll see what's going to happen. But I mean, right now we've got Greens in a lot of areas with lost nitrogen, you know, is that a little thing that's going to cut back on their yields? We've got weather that's come up. You know, Iowa, you know, if you're through the tornado alley, they're out there. They're not thinking about replant. They're thinking about where am I going to sleep tonight? So, I mean, I think that all along the way here, we scale in some sales here, sell a call above the market where you're willing to do that to pay for something. I mean, if you're willing to sell 550 corn, some 550 call, I mean, you know, if the worst case scenario is you're in the money and you got that paid and you got money for it, so think about doing some of that now, even if even if you don't want to sell anything right here. 

Todd Gleason 14:11
There are some issues fundamentally that we need to discuss are related to trade and exports, particularly with China. They were in the market this week for corn. I think that surprised many still absent as it relates to soybeans. So there are rumors. 

Dave Chatterton 14:28
Yeah, we did get rumors this week, the China bond anywhere between two and six cargoes of US beans. And that would be a very welcome sign to God, particularly at this point in the year when Brazil typically owns the market. I think, you know, we haven't had confirmation of that from the USDA. I think the trade is concerned that China at this point has zero not one metric ton of soybeans on the books of the U.S. for new crop. And that's very unusual for this time of year. I mean, it's it pales in by comparison to measure the previous years. But what I do like and where I do see the potential is, you know, there's a big debate going on about what's the actual size of that South American crop, particularly in Brazil, and very wide range between corn AB and the USDA or the private industry and and the USDA. But we're seeing I think the best reflection of that is we're seeing the basis levels in the export offers in Brazil rise dramatically. They're over a dollar, you know, at one point at the same time last year, they were a dollar 60 a bushel cheaper than we were at this point in the year. Right now, they're $0.04 cheaper than we are. So we've closed that gap as those prices are rallied. And it tells me that their crop probably isn't as big as what they anticipated. And we do have that window now. China, I don't think politically they want to buy from the U.S. We had the Taiwan exercises this week. We've got Biden talking about tariffs, all the normal things that we're poking the bear. It's an election year. It's going to be a lot of tough talk. You know, China and Russia recently signed a new pact of agreement to basically, I would say, battle the West, if you will. And so there's a lot of politics that go into that. But sooner or later, it looks like we're going to maybe have an opening to sell some beans that we didn't think we'd get to sell here because of the size of what the ultimate size of that South American crop will be that'll have its day and have its say, but it'll have it within the context of what is our growing crop look like and what are those new crop fundamentals look like? They're going to land. 

Todd Gleason 16:20
Still from the USDA's first supply and demand tables, they showed 445 million bushels as the carry out for our soybeans. By the time we get to the fall of 2025. That's a big number. 

Dave Chatterton 16:34
It's a very big number. And I think that goes to what we've been talking about here. And to maybe paraphrase what Wayne said, it's a period where unfortunately we have to be defensive in terms of our marketing. This isn't a year. We're looking for those huge margins. We're trying to survive. We're trying to get by, we're trying to pay the bills and maybe keep our equity together and move forward and look for, you know, a more cyclically able, opportunistic time. So, you know, let's say we get an additional 50 million from exports from China and that carry out drops closer to 400. That's still a very heavy stock to use ratio in terms of historical pricing. That's $10 beans. In terms of putting a number on paper, I'm not saying we go to $10, but that's the way that the market has to overcome to sustain that rally. And I think that's that timing that I mentioned earlier in the in in the show is, you know, you may not want to sell when your crops are just starting to grow. That's why you have a crop insurance policy and that's why you lean on it in terms of marketing up to that guarantee or being able to market up to that guarantee. But I think it's the time of the type of a market where being ahead of the crowd is going to be a much better end result than where then where we're, you know, then waiting and hoping the price is good in the fall. 

Curt Kimmel 17:45
And, you know, the southern hemisphere in China is more of a logistics thing. You know, they're shipping beans out of the southern hemisphere. Is that basis. As Dave mentioned, there is is moved higher. We're competitive now, but we're talking a new crop. You know, there's not enough time to purchase whole crop and have it shipped. But to say that they're not going to buy any beans at all is kind of crazy when the opportunity is right and when nobody's wife and child come in and buy 1 million, 2 million, 3 million metric tons of beans, boom, boom, boom, boom. So it is just a question of when. Yes, there are trade frictions and concerns and so forth, but logistic wise, it's going to happen. It's just when. But like Dave mentioned, there, a 400 million bushel carry outs, not bullish. 

Todd Gleason 18:30
Are you more concerned about the soybean market or the corn market at this point? 

Curt Kimmel 18:34
I'm more concerned about the soybean market more than anything now. It's really I'm a little bit more comfortable now because crush margins are starting to pick up a little bit and Crush is starting to work a little bit better. But when you when you look forward in through here, it's a little bit of a concern. So I'm concerned that there's considerable downside risk in soybeans, whereas corn, you know, 181 bushels to the acre. You know, whether that's true or not, as we move forward through here, you know, there's production concerns, but demand strong, ethanol strong. You know, I think that corn demand is better than what you're letting on 2 billion bushel carry outside. But it wouldn't take much to get corn carry out, you know, to or less than 2 million bushels. It will look forward. 

Todd Gleason 19:17
I do want to ask one technical question on the soybeans, because there is a gap in the soil in the new crops. Soybeans probably would put most cash prices in that $12 range. It's up around, what, 1245 or something, thereabouts. From the technical side, what does that gap look like to you as it's related to the current trade? Will we be forced to go back and fill it or try to fill it? And what happens. 

Curt Kimmel 19:45
Will be nice to fill it because basically when the calendar turn, 2024 is a gap down. That's when that gap occurred. When we moved into the new year in through here. If you look at today's price, we're back in that January trading range. So I think that would be a goal. If you want to be optimistic, I have some orders up there to sell if we go up and try to fill that gap. 

Dave Chatterton 20:07
Yeah, I mean, I'll go maybe a step further and stick my neck out a little bit. I think the gap has a good chance of getting filled, but I can't guarantee that. And you know, if it does get filled, I would almost be willing to bet or I would take the over that it gets filled in a very quick and violent fashion. In other words, we blow through it and we come right back down. Hey, we check that box and we're done. I can't tell you what the fundamentals would be, but that's the way the market has tended to give us opportunities. Here goes back to you need to have a plan. You do have offers in place to do that. The downside of that is I can't sit here as a manager of risk on my own farm or any clients farm and say, Well, let's just bury ahead in the scene and wait for that gap to get filled. Because like I said, I wouldn't I would almost think that, you know, I think the odds favor that. It does get filled on a very quick and violent basis, But you have to be ready to take advantage of that. And I think that's the key. 

Wayne Nelson 21:05
Well, soybean bulls are talking about uncertainty of weather in South America and Brazil. Specifically, they're talking the agro consults dropped to 10% from last year going on that way. So there is talk of that which is going to be a force that could take and move sun up there. There's talk of the Fibonacci number that could take us to 13, 13 with a 61.8% retracement. So there is stuff that takes us up to that range. But okay, that's a $13 one like that. Let's sell the 1350 call. 

Todd Gleason 21:34
We have not talked about wheat yet, though. That's been the mover in this market to this point. And it appears that it may stay that way for a while. Large part of this is because the bulk of the wheat on the planet, while it's grown everywhere in every month of the year, is grown in the northern hemisphere. 

Dave Chatterton 21:54
Yeah, I mean, wheat been the leader on the way up and could potentially be the leader on the way down. And it's a volatile trade. I mean, wheat's a wicked. You know what And having said that, I mean you've had opportunities here too to really get yourself in a better position if you have for 24. WHEAT Well, out of the servants, you've had the opportunity to do that on 25 wheat. And when we're talking all of a sudden we had a crop to in Illinois the other day that put the wheat yield close to 100 bushels an acre, You do the math on $7 wheat at 100 $700 an acre plus a double crop means that you have virtually no input costs and or very minimal input costs. And those numbers work. So, I mean, if you're looking to manage risk and try and put some stability and profitability under your market, under your operation, not everyone in central Illinois obviously grows wheat, but in southern Illinois in a big portion of Indiana and in northeast Missouri, where I have a number of clients, it's a big deal and it's something that, you know, you need to be paying attention to. 

Todd Gleason 22:51
The crop budgets, the Gary spent years put together year in and year out, along with Nick Paulson. The rest of the farm doc team have long shown in years where the markets are not the best that some times wheat soybean mix really does lead, especially in southern Illinois. How do you view the wheat market as it relates to leading the marketplace and can it lead to the upside as it has for very long? And what happens when it. 

Curt Kimmel 23:19
Turns or you trade wheat, you sleep in the street and that's no less. And a lot of people have learned that. Yeah, it's been a dynamic market 

for moon high tops in. But yeah, we've had some technically we had some reversals down through here. We'll see if it falls through. Sometimes it takes three or four technical reversals to get the trend to change. When you look at the wheat corn spread, we're at some wide levels in here that's probably run its course. The Dave's right, these guys are race wise, man. They're just doing the math. Again, wheat is wheat has a ton of potential here if they don't get some hail on it. So fundamentally, that's what we're looking at here in the U.S. Also, fundamentally, here in the U.S., we get big wheat crop and this big carry on the board. I think you're going to have a lot of these areas buy wheat and hedge. It might have some storage issues in some locations because they got wheat in the beans this fall in the year after, instead of making room for corn. But I think the underlying fundamental concern was Russian making a little bit more headway in Ukraine. Man, What the fear is or concern is, is that they keep moving in through there. Things could escalate also to the Russian and Ukrainian wheat crop. Frost freeze. I know guys have had their wheat crop. Frost froze is black. Then it comes back in and still does something. So a little weather concern on that, but we'll see if it still runs through the same course here as we move into next week. 

Todd Gleason 24:52
Wheat as dry as it can be in areas of Russia, 35 days at this point and moving into eastern Ukraine as well, much like Putin's troops. Again. So we'll see how that plays out. The marketplace has been concerned, I think, on both of those fronts. What's happening in the Black Sea related to the war between Russia and Ukraine, along with the dry weather conditions and the frost in those southern Russian growing regions. From your experience with wheat on the world marketplace, what difference does it really make in the United States related to other coarse grains, corn in particular? 

Wayne Nelson 25:39
Well, last year we saw Russia cap the feed grain market in wheat whenever they wanted to. They lowered the price they sold at the interfered with lots of other exports from different countries or different things. There's talk out there that Russia might restrict their wheat exports for this next year. There's talk that the weather in Russia, China, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Australia might limit their wheat production. Wheat feeds the world. I mean, basically along the way, that is the protein that feeds most of the rest of the world. We don't look at it that way in the U.S., but the rest of the world really does. Now, I think that if wheat is short in the rest of the world, even if we have a good crop here, we're going to see products going to go up. We're going to have something to say. Look, they're going to come. They're going to want to have they're going to want protein of some sort. So I think that that's the good chance if they do have problems with it, if they're not out there saying, hey, I'll sell you wheat $50 a ton cheaper and you can buy corn in the U.S., it's a good you know, it's a good thing for us. 

Dave Chatterton 26:41
Yeah. I mean, I would say the world's not going to run out of wheat at this particular point. But what's has happened with the losses in Russia and that was was raw numbers are below 80 million metric tons. If you're a corn in being farmer in central Illinois or Indiana, I think the way you want to look at that is it's it's helping raise the floor on our road crop markets. Okay. It's helping support those raw crop markets, particularly the corn wheat relationship and the feed demand and the things that are going on. And so, look, we've been the benefactor of a smaller crop in South America, a smaller crop in Europe, in the Black Sea, all helping to support our corn and B markets. And we needed that. We were at some levels that were that were definitely in the red on a per acre basis. We're now back to a level where we're not excited or we're not, you know, you know, shoot the moon. But hey, we're at a level where we can make a little bit of money here. And I think that underlying support will stay with us. The balance of the year, I mean, when you look at the export market, hardwood wheat is not in a position to compete with Russian exports. Even today or even if they go another two or four or $5 higher softwood wheat is. And that's very helpful here in the Midwest. And I think, again, it goes back to that double crop situation where, you know, you have to put a pencil to that and it makes sense in a lot of areas. 

Todd Gleason 27:50
I don't usually put all of you on the spot as much as I'm about to. Normally, a farmer will have some old crop gambling stocks left and then they have new crop corn and soybeans to sell a wheat crop if they raise it. So the question at this point is they still have corn to sell, probably more than gambling stocks. They have new crop corn to sell, probably sold fewer bushels than they normally would have. And I suspect the same is true for soybeans. So of those three old crop corn, new crop corn and new crop soybeans, it's really hard to sell one crop, harder to sell to crops, even worse, to try to sell three at the same time. How do they manage that and in what order should they take it? And I guess where do we all stand? 

Curt Kimmel 28:43
We've got a lot of moving parts there and each individual is different. I mean, for for the most part, the mentality is right now is your tie holders. They're a little bit more comfortable selling because they've got the crop in the field. But I think it's going to take a phone call from LV on August 30th. Say, do you want to pay now? They're in charge or not to shake it loose, but the simplest thing to do is take advantage of the market interest here, move it and replace it with like a call option. That way, if we turn hot and dry at that Mexican, we don't see that Mexican on the drought monitor because you have Mexico's drought monitor. That thing moves straight up north and takes a right. You know, we have a whole different ballgame, but that might not have to go away. So move it, replace it because how many commodity funds are going to call you up and say, I to buy your corn and beans, I'll buy them abroad. So the basis will why now? So I think you've moved the cash drain, replace it. You're in you're in position here. If things do catch on fire later on, you can recoup some more money to the upside. 

Wayne Nelson 29:47
Sell small crop corn, now have scale in orders to sell some more down the road. I think also the same thing in the beans. I think there are more we're going to look ahead here and it's like you said, it's going to be hard, John, to sell everything if you are an up, depending on what percentage you're sold, If you're less than 50% sold on new crop, I think you get to that level up in these areas. Now, I'm not seen. So today's things we talked about numbers before here in the day. If you listen to what I said and where we're going to put stuff in, it can be even just the idea if you sell that that call it's above things were what gets it if it pushes we get there but we would collect something that's what that's my short answer. 

Dave Chatterton 30:25
Well tell us bottom line this don't please please don't wait for that call from the elevator. Be a little bit more proactive than that. Secondly, basis in our area, our part of the world is historically a little bit on the weak side for a reason. We are not running out of supply any time soon. Your priorities in order need to be a more anxious about beans than I am about corn, than I am about wheat. Okay, having said that, keep the keep this seasonal that we talked about in mind and let the price guide you. If we're making new highs or moving towards new highs, have offers in place to reward that market. And any day, basically 20 hours a day, you can come in and buy a call and you can replace that. As Curt said, I know not everybody wants to do that. Everybody's comfortable with that and all have brokerage accounts. That's to their own discredit, in my opinion. I mean, doesn't mean you have to use it 365 days a year, but that's what it's for. And there are ways to do that. And in terms of I know what I spend and I know what my risk is to get $0.50 or a dollar of upside potential in the corner soybean market without any downside risk and with the known costs. So, you know, talk to one of us if you need some help on that. But I mean, have that plan and be ready and do it. And in in terms of having a defensive mindset, unfortunately, I'm. 

Todd Gleason 31:38
We're we're let's get a final word from each of you now. We'll start with you, Kurt Campbell. If you're listening to. 

Curt Kimmel 31:45
Program, you're not familiar with farming and corn and beans and wheat. We're not panicking. Go out and buy bread and put it in the freezer, buy past it and store it. There's clearly a supply of sweet corn and beans around the world. And so I wouldn't panic there. But the big thing is we're heading into a holiday weekend. This is not a three day weekend. Is Memorial Day weekend. And the reason we had this holiday set up is for those who passed away being in the military. 

Todd Gleason 32:18
Why now? 

Wayne Nelson 32:19
You know, I have to echo with Kurt. Let's think about our veterans on Memorial Day. But, you know, like I say, we've had a nice rally. Don't let it get away. 

Todd Gleason 32:28
And finally, Dave Chatterton 

Dave Chatterton 32:30
Yeah, let's let's think about our veterans on Memorial Day. Well, let's think about them everyday and how lucky we are to be here and doing what we are and being in the ag industry. And, you know, I'm thankful for that. And I think you guys are too. Having said that, the agricultural industry, in terms of production, agriculture, we're in better footing financially than we were just a few months ago. Let's be thankful for that. But that's also make sure we take advantage of that. 

Todd Gleason 32:52
Commodity Week is the production of Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world. Find us online, listen to us on demand at will ag dot org, The commodity markets are closed Monday. Our panelists this week have included Curt Kimmel, Dave Chatterton is with Strategic Farm Marketing. And from L&M Commodities Wayne Nelson joined us. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. 

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