Aug 04 | Closing Market Report

cmr260804

The August 4, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, provides a comprehensive overview of agricultural commodity markets, crop conditions, bioenergy trends, and regional weather forecasts. Market analyst Naomi Blohm discusses the recent drop in corn and soybean futures, attributing the shift to incoming rainfall across the Midwest that has eased weather concerns, alongside recent technical market movements. Host Todd Gleason then reviews the USDA crop progress report, highlighting that national corn and soybean development is pacing ahead of historical averages, and notes that the Crop Protection Network currently assesses a low risk for tar spot disease across most of the Midwest. Later in the program, Dan O'Brien of Kansas State University Extension explores the moderate profitability of the U.S. ethanol industry and explains how 45Z tax regulations are creating distinct advantages for low-carbon bioenergy producers and renewable diesel. Finally, meteorologist Don Day from Day Weather anticipates a transition toward a more normal August pattern, forecasting that returning subtropical moisture will bring necessary rain to much of the Corn Belt, although areas like Texas and Oklahoma are expected to remain hot and dry.

01:14 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing
07:32 Crop Progress, Conditions, and Outliers
09:28 Crop Progress, Conditions, and Outliers
10:54 Ag Energies with Dan O'Brien, K-State Extension
20:37 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather

---

Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report for the fourth day of August 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Blohm. She’s at totalfarmmarketing.com. I’ll bring you yesterday’s update of the crop progress and conditions report, along with a look at the Crop Protection Network’s projections for tar spot across portions of Illinois and Indiana. The risk is low, but you’ll want to hear about that. Then we’ll turn our attention to bioenergies—not just ethanol this week, but also soy diesel. We’ll do that with Dan O’Brien of Kansas State University Extension in a really good conversation that includes the 45Z. And then as we wrap up our time together, we’ll take a look at the weather forecast with Don Day. He’s at Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming, right here on this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org.

announce: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

01:14 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing

Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm from totalfarmmarketing.com now joins us. She’s in West Bend, Wisconsin. Hello, Naomi. Thanks for joining us early on a Tuesday, as I need to be out of the office this afternoon. As you and I are talking, the futures in Chicago are not looking very good. A little bleak for the day, in fact. Soybeans down around 20 cents, corn down around 7 cents. What’s driving today’s trade, and then let’s talk a little broader about what you think of this marketplace.

Naomi Blohm: Yeah, there are two things driving today’s trade. One being rain on the radar right now, and there are more storms building for the Midwest between this afternoon, tonight, and tomorrow. We’ve got more chances of widespread rain coverage and some cooler temperatures to go with it in the short term. So that’s just taking some of that immediate weather threat out of the marketplace, especially for soybeans.

And then the other part of it would be technicals. From the standpoint that the market last week, of course, we had that big sell-off after the three-week July rally. And then on Sunday night and Monday, we saw the markets test some important moving averages on the daily charts for corn, soybeans, and wheat. All of those moving averages held. They were either 50% retracement points or 61% Fibonacci retracement points. So yesterday’s technical buying made a lot of sense.

Then we had the market work higher on Monday. We got up to short-term resistance levels and the top of the very short-term downtrend lines that had formed over the past week. The market last night and this morning did not have enough bullish news to get through those short-term resistance levels, so now we’re seeing the market down again. So we have corn down 8 cents here just after 11 o’clock, beans down almost 20 cents, and wheat trading 13 to 14 cents lower across the complex. We’re kind of going back to that point where we’re not for sure where this crop yield is going to end up, but with the rain coming through and saving the day for the moment, we’re taking some of that weather premium out of the marketplace. I’m wondering if we see prices now over the coming trading days, and maybe into the early part of next week, just continue to trade sideways to a little bit lower as we head into next week Wednesday’s WASDE report.

Todd Gleason: I’m looking at the daily chart for December corn. Yesterday, of course, was an outside up day. Those can be really good signs. The charts are king at the moment when you can’t quite find your footing, and money flow is moving this marketplace. It allows volatility, which I think gives farmers an opportunity from time to time. How do you view these next few weeks as it relates to the grain that producers need to take across the scale, whether it’s corn and/or soybeans, and how much of that they might want to try to get sold, if you’re of that mind? Or maybe not. You tell me.

Naomi Blohm: With the old crop corn, we still are a good 30 cents up off the lows from late June. So old crop corn, I still feel there’s opportunity here to be making sales. For new crop, a slightly different scenario. I think a lot of folks made sales in May. I think a lot of people made more new crop sales a couple of weeks ago when corn was charging higher, getting up near that $4.90 area. For new crop sales, I would say maybe pause on any additional sales at the moment. I think people are probably 50% sold and forward contracted at some good value. Pause here for a minute.

The reason I say that is because seasonally over the next couple of weeks, a lot of times we find our early harvest low for the corn market and the soybean market. It’s oftentimes in conjunction with the August WASDE. The other thing I’m very mindful of is how the drought in Europe that hit the marketplace in early July has shifted the global balance sheet to smaller global supplies of corn and smaller global supplies of wheat.

Next week’s WASDE is going to be really important. Not only will we get yield updates from the USDA, but they’re going to be able to incorporate the FSA acreage data. We could see updated planted acres. We could see updated harvested acres. There could be a lot of volatility that comes with that. The bottom line is, unless they throw an extremely bearish report at us, the global ending stocks for corn and wheat have started to shift lower.

It’s making the marketplace have to prove itself. The United States has to prove itself for what kind of grain it’s going to be able to grow this year. As soon as we get that done, we’re going to be looking to see what China was able to grow. There’s one part of China getting a little bit drier. Nothing overly concerning at the moment, but something to be watching. We want to keep an eye on whether China is going to be importing not just soybeans, but corn, maybe sorghum, maybe wheat.

Then we need to put our focus on South America—Brazil and Argentina, now you guys have to get it right. We need you to have that perfect crop, or it could really set something up for a bullish market for 2027. For the course of the next week, we’re probably going to see sideways to lower prices. Keep focusing on the old crop cash sales. Those lines at the elevator, I’m still told, are quite long in some places. We might see lower prices in the short term, but then we’ll be looking for that harvest low.

Todd Gleason: All right. Hey, thanks much. I appreciate it.

Naomi Blohm: Thank you.

Todd Gleason: That, of course, is Naomi Blohm. She’s at totalfarmmarketing.com.

07:32 Crop Progress, Conditions, and Outliers

Todd Gleason: Yesterday afternoon, the United States Department of Agriculture released the latest crop progress and conditions report. It shows, as of Sunday, that national corn progress continues to run ahead of schedule across the 18 primary growing states. Ninety percent of the corn crop is silking, compared to the five-year average of 87%. Corn in the dough stage reached 43% nationally, five points ahead of the five-year average. The corn crop is rated 61% good to excellent. That’s down two points from last week.

Soybean development is also tracking ahead of historical norms. Across the 18 key producing states, 88% of the beans are blooming, compared to 84% on average. Pod set reached 62%; the five-year average is 55%. Overall soybean condition remains unchanged from last week at 63% good to excellent.

Here are some of the outliers from Monday’s USDA Crop Progress Report. Development in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest is still running well ahead of the normal pace. Forty-six percent of Minnesota’s corn crop has reached the dough stage. That’s an 18-point leap above its five-year average. Silking progress in both North and South Dakota is 12 points ahead of average. Corn in Kansas is ahead too. Fifty-six percent of that crop has reached the dough stage, eight points ahead of the 48% average.

Meanwhile, Illinois corn dough progress matched its exact five-year average at 47%. Iowa is slightly ahead at 48%, and Nebraska sits precisely on its historical mark at 38% dough. Looking at soybeans, Minnesota is the standout, where 75% of the crop is podding, 20 points ahead of average. The two Dakotas and Kansas are also podding ahead of schedule. Soybean podding across Illinois, Iowa, and Nebraska is on pace.

09:28 Crop Progress, Conditions, and Outliers

Todd Gleason: This week’s Crop Protection Network shows, as of today, tar spot is limited in scope across the Midwest, other than through central Indiana and the bulk of the corn-growing areas of Nebraska. You can look at the maps for yourself on the cropprotectionnetwork.com website under the tools section. There you’ll find the crop risk tool as well. Rather than mapping counties with reported disease infections, it projects the potential for development. The following are percent risks from today through August 20. There is low risk in Champaign, Springfield, and Galesburg, Illinois, as well as Terre Haute, Indiana. Crawfordsville, Indiana, has, for the first time this season, a moderate risk—about a 25% chance of tar spot developing after mid-August. Kankakee and DeKalb, Illinois, are in that same 10% risk range. Corn is susceptible to tar spot when in growth stages V10 through R3. That’s ten-leaf to milk. Risk is based on probability of spore presence. The Land Grant university model depends on temperature and relative humidity. Its predictions are only valid when the crop is in a vulnerable growth stage. To learn more, check out cropprotectionnetwork.com online.

10:54 Ag Energies with Dan O’Brien, K-State Extension

Todd Gleason: Each week we take a look at the agricultural energies. Dan O’Brien from Kansas State University, an agricultural economist there, now joins us to discuss what he’s been following. Hi, Dan. Thanks much. We have a lot of ground to cover. Let’s start with how much capacity is being utilized across the U.S. ethanol industry and what production has looked like as of the end of the month of July.

Dan O’Brien: Yes. From a couple of sources, first the Renewable Fuels Association and then the USDA ERS, you try to piece together what the industry is doing. It looks like we’ve got about 18.5 billion gallons per year of capacity out there, and we’re utilizing something around 16.5 billion of it. Of course, some plants are going great guns, and others could be updated, or for whatever reason in their part of the country, they’re not going quite so much. But you still see signals of intended expansion out there.

It’s also really interesting to see, if you go on the Renewable Fuels Association site and look for the SAF, sustainable aviation fuels, there are about five plants out there ready to go, wanting to go, indicating capacity to start up, but waiting for the right conditions. Right timing and probably regulatory signals on whether to go forth or not.

The profitability estimates for these plants, using a typical plant in the center of the Corn Belt in Iowa and plugging in the latest numbers, it looks like they’re pretty profitable. Of course, Todd, when we put out public numbers and state that something is profitable, you always have to be careful to make sure you’re not missing something. But by our best estimates, it looks like last month we were making about 25 cents a gallon through ethanol plants, and by our estimates now, with corn oil sales included as well as DDGs, about 40 cents a gallon. So, profitable times for ethanol plants.

I guess we’re waiting to see what happens when you’ve got moderate input prices like for corn, and we still have uncertainty with regard to where the corn market will go as we start getting harder data out of the USDA NASS that works its way through the balance sheets. But as of right now, still pretty moderate corn prices. Ethanol prices on their own have actually been trending down moderately from where they were about three or four months ago, but still at plants in the central part of the country, about $1.78 a gallon. The break-even price for ethanol production, given moderate corn prices, is about $1.58 a gallon. So you’re looking at a 20 to 40 cents differential in the profitability of the plants.

We look at that, and I can remember, Todd, you and I have talked about times back in the fall and winter of ’25 where we were looking at 16 to 20 cents per gallon losses. Times prior to that in earlier ’24 where we had losses of 9 to 10 cents a gallon. Now we’re going through a period of relatively decent use of fuels. Ethanol, of course, with its RFS as a percentage part of all that. So at this time, we’re showing at least moderate profitability in ethanol plants.

Todd Gleason: Policy, of course, is still driving ethanol. That’s the RFS, the Renewable Fuel Standard. The RVO and the 45Z, however, are supporting both ethanol and biodiesel, renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel. Something is coming out of an oilseed, we think of soybeans, maybe canola. Can you talk a little bit about what you’ve been thinking through as it relates to soybeans and those renewable diesel functions, and the impact it has on agriculture?

Dan O’Brien: It’s interesting to look at. As you look at background information, the 45Z regulations have more potential for renewable diesel than biodiesel in terms of the profitability of plants that can work its way back to the consumer side. It’s interesting to look at what you have laid out for 45Z out there and see who the winners and losers are.

Generally, for corn ethanol, it’s probably a mixed winner. Plants with low carbon intensity operations can benefit. Ethanol margins and corn demand may improve if credits support higher run rates. For low carbon ethanol plants, it’s certainly a winner. They’re able to benefit from what the 45Z provides them, or the pathway to profitability that is provided there.

Biodiesel, I would say, is a qualified winner, mixed to loser. It still benefits from 45Z, but the margins are highly sensitive to soybean oil and other lipid feedstock costs. Renewable diesel is a winner. Strongest structural position in the biomass-based diesel complex, with growth supported by capacity expansion and policy demand. Renewable diesel is a winner in the 45Z sweepstakes.

Sustainable aviation fuel is a mixed winner. It’s still eligible for 45Z benefits, but apparently, there have been recent legislative changes that have reduced its relative advantage versus earlier versions of the policy. So, again, something that remains to be watched.

Feedstock suppliers are generally a winner. Anything that increases the demand, profitability, and price of corn, soybean oil, used cooking oil, and other low-carbon inputs can gain value if the low carbon intensity ethanol plants are successful and they start drawing inputs in.

This works against any plant in the bioenergy world that isn’t able to designate itself or prove that it’s a low carbon intensity producer. The 45Z is aimed to help low carbon intensity bioenergy producing plants, and it doesn’t give a major reward to those that are not. It seems like it helps domestic production and works against imports coming in. They’re not able to benefit from the 45Z rewards or the incentive structure, at least as I understand the situation.

As we kept watching this, we see 45Z regulations gaining more clarity, and the incentives to different low carbon intensity producing plants are starting to work their way through. There are winners and losers as we look at how all this finally works itself out. Of course, the policy realm can change. They’re impacted by different administrations here in the U.S. with different guidance they would give to the Department of Energy and other entities that affect this. As we sit right now, we can be pretty confident in saying that anything tied in with the low carbon intensity ethanol plants or with renewable diesel looks pretty good, and we’ll see how the rest of the field plays out.

Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. I appreciate all the expertise.

Dan O’Brien: Thank you very much, Todd. Take care.

Todd Gleason: You too. Dan O’Brien is with Kansas State University Extension.

announce: You’re listening to the Closing Market Report on a Tuesday afternoon that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org.

20:37 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather

Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the agricultural weather forecast across the Midwest, the Corn Belt in particular. Don Day is here. He’s with Day Weather out of Cheyenne, Wyoming. Hello, Don. Thanks for being with us again today.

Don Day: Thanks for having me.

Todd Gleason: Talk to me about the month of August. What generally does it look like across different parts of the Corn Belt, and how do you see it progressing through the days and weeks?

Don Day: I think when we compare August to how July went, it’s going to end up having a little bit of a different look to it. Of course, in July, we had a lot of heat and dryness in the northwest and western areas of the Corn Belt. That pattern, while still very warm as we go deeper and deeper into August, will be tempered a little bit by a couple of things.

We’re going to start to see the influence of the northern jet stream a little bit more. In fact, we’re having some cooler weather move into those areas here to start the week. But we’re also going to see the re-emergence of subtropical moisture getting pumped up, curving around that high-pressure ridge over the southern plains, that ring of fire, so to speak. So rain opportunities over the next seven to 14 days for the first half of August are looking pretty good, even in some of those very dry western areas.

Todd Gleason: Do you think August will be normal by comparison to past years?

Don Day: I think so. August is punctuated by a lot of heat, obviously, but I also see the feeding of this subtropical moisture into the U.S. providing some adequate and decent rains for some areas that really need it. If there’s one place that I’m concerned about where the drier, hotter weather is going to set up, it’s going to be Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and maybe southern Missouri. Those areas are going to be missing out, at least over the next couple of weeks and for the first half of August, from any significant rains. We still are watching the Gulf and the Atlantic for signs of tropical activity and don’t see any of that yet.

Todd Gleason: Hey, thanks much. We’ll talk with you again next week.

Don Day: See you then.

Todd Gleason: Don Day is with Day Weather. He is in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Joined us on this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. I’m University of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.