Episode Number
10417
Episode Show Notes / Description
The August 18, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, provides a comprehensive update on agricultural commodity markets, ongoing crop assessments, global energy supplies, and regional weather trends. Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing breaks down recent grain price movements, noting technical resistance, profit-taking in corn and soybeans, and international supply dynamics from Southeast Asia to the Black Sea. Pro Farmer Tour crop scouts Sherman Newlin and Oliver Sloup report day-two findings from the western and eastern legs of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour across South Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Indiana, detailing the effects of severe field moisture, variable plant populations, and disease pressure on yield expectations. Dave Chatterton of Strategic Farm Marketing analyzes agricultural energies, highlighting the market impact of expired diplomatic agreements, Middle Eastern shipping disruptions, and multi-decade lows in global distillate stocks ahead of the North American fall harvest. Finally, Don Day of Day Weather reviews the active thunderstorm pattern moving across the Midwest, forecasting a gradual moderation in rain intensity alongside cooler overnight temperatures in the weeks ahead.
01:18 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing
07:25 Pro Farmer Crop Tour | Nebraska, Ohio, and Indiana
15:53 Ag Energies with Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing
20:22 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather
01:18 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing
07:25 Pro Farmer Crop Tour | Nebraska, Ohio, and Indiana
15:53 Ag Energies with Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing
20:22 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather
Transcript
cmr260818
The August 18, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, provides a comprehensive update on agricultural commodity markets, ongoing crop assessments, global energy supplies, and regional weather trends. Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing breaks down recent grain price movements, noting technical resistance, profit-taking in corn and soybeans, and international supply dynamics from Southeast Asia to the Black Sea. Pro Farmer Tour crop scouts Sherman Newlin and Oliver Sloup report day-two findings from the western and eastern legs of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour across South Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Indiana, detailing the effects of severe field moisture, variable plant populations, and disease pressure on yield expectations. Dave Chatterton of Strategic Farm Marketing analyzes agricultural energies, highlighting the market impact of expired diplomatic agreements, Middle Eastern shipping disruptions, and multi-decade lows in global distillate stocks ahead of the North American fall harvest. Finally, Don Day of Day Weather reviews the active thunderstorm pattern moving across the Midwest, forecasting a gradual moderation in rain intensity alongside cooler overnight temperatures in the weeks ahead.
01:18 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing
07:25 Pro Farmer Crop Tour | Nebraska, Ohio, and Indiana
15:53 Ag Energies with Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing
20:22 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather
---
Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 18th day of August 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Blohm. We’ll have updates from both the eastern and western legs of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Dave Chatterton will be here to discuss the agricultural energies, and Don Day will join us to take a look at the weather forecast.
announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: September corn for the day settled at $4.63 and a quarter, a penny and three-quarters lower. December, down a penny and a half at $4.88. The March, $5.04, down one and a quarter. November beans, three-quarters higher at $12.16 and three-quarters, though they had a high of $12.31 and three-quarters today. January, at $12.31 and a half, finished a half-cent higher. Bean meal, up 90 cents. Bean oil, $1.75 lower. Soft red winter wheat, 8 cents lower at $6.81 and a quarter, and the hard red at $7.58 and a half, down 13 and a quarter. All of those in the December contract. Crude oil, about 24 cents higher at $83.98 a barrel. Diesel fuel, up a penny and four-tenths at $4.32 and a tenth of a cent.
01:18 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing
Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm from Total Farm Marketing now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Let’s start with soybeans. It was up fairly sharply and then turned around today. What happened?
Naomi Blohm: Bean prices worked higher based on a combination of thoughts that flooding in the eastern Midwest may hurt yields. We also caught wind that Indonesia is experiencing issues with palm oil production due to dry weather concerns with El Nino. Lower palm oil production potentially means higher demand for soybean oil, which was another reason for that market to work higher yesterday. Today, November beans reached $12.31 and three-quarters, closing in on the July high price point, but the market lacked enough immediate friendly news to justify breaking through that high. We saw profit-taking as the day progressed, posting a hook reversal lower. Soybeans will be watching the crop tour happening this week. We are also keeping an eye on options expiration on Friday for September options. The market often experiences volatility depending on where the most volume and open interest sit on those strike prices. We will likely see a sideways trading pattern this week, but in general, November beans remain well supported above $12.
Todd Gleason: The trend remains up at this point for soybeans, and corn as well?
Naomi Blohm: Corn finished today with a hook reversal lower. It reached the July price highs but lacked a reason to push through, even though crop tour numbers yesterday supported findings of lower yields. Much of that is likely already priced into the market, so there wasn’t enough bullish news to breach resistance. Corn prices will likely trade in a sideways pattern until we get a firmer handle on the US crop. We are monitoring demand, but the daily updates from the crop tour will be the driving factor this week.
Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention to outside influences, particularly the conflicts in the Middle East and the Black Sea region.
Naomi Blohm: President Trump stated traffic was occurring throughout the canal in the Middle East, attempting to keep energy markets and exports moving. The crude oil market reflected that today; it is firm, up about 50 points and trading near $85 on the nearby September contract. Prices remain supported due to the conflict, but the market isn’t trading dramatically higher because of the perception that oil is successfully moving out of the region. Regarding the Black Sea, warring continues daily. The key factor is whether they are able to export agricultural products. If exports are bottlenecked, other countries may turn to the United States, driving additional demand for our corn and wheat.
Todd Gleason: We are about 10 to 11 days from the September 1 planting start date in South America’s Mato Grosso area, a date regulated to manage Asian soybean rust. They will need rainfall to proceed. Given the El Nino issues affecting Indonesian palm oil, how critical is an on-time start for South American producers, and how will the market react if planting is delayed?
Naomi Blohm: It is a major issue. With lower production levels in Europe and the United States stemming from summer drought and current flooding, we have tighter global ending stocks for both corn and wheat. We have comfortable supplies of soybeans, but if corn and wheat rally, beans will follow. We need South America to produce a perfect crop and plant on time. If beans are delayed, their harvest will be late. A late soybean harvest pushes the planting of the second-crop corn (safrinha) late, forcing it into its critical development phase during the naturally dry time of the year. This creates a domino effect on global production and pricing. Weather forecasts, both in the United States and globally, will be the central focus moving forward.
07:25 Pro Farmer Crop Tour | Nebraska, Ohio, and Indiana
Todd Gleason: It is day two of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. We are joined by Sherman Newlin, who is traveling the western leg of the tour with Zanner Ag Hedge. Having finished South Dakota yesterday, what did you think of the crop?
Sherman Newlin: USDA’s lower estimates are accurate. Corn still needs time to finish filling out, but we saw drought-stricken corn, short plants, and suboptimal populations. They will not add bushels, but they will try to maintain what they have. If it doesn’t rain, the South Dakota yield could drop further.
Todd Gleason: The South Dakota tour number released yesterday was 149.09. USDA had 151. Tell me about the route you traveled through Nebraska today.
Sherman Newlin: It is incredibly wet. It started with pouring rain, and while the sun is out now, road ditches are full and fields are extremely muddy. Across five stops, our truck average is 189, which is behind last year’s pace. The highest yield we pulled was 226, and the lowest was 121 on non-irrigated, 36-inch rows. Bean pod counts are actually 17% higher than last year. Most of the crop we’ve evaluated is irrigated, and even the dryland fields look decent for soybeans. We have covered Hall, Hamilton, York, Polk, and Butler counties.
Todd Gleason: Have you noted any other significant damage?
Sherman Newlin: There is typical hail damage in scattered areas, but nothing severe. Corn yields are down slightly from last year, but irrigated Nebraska corn will remain largely insulated from major losses.
Todd Gleason: Sherman Newlin is with Zanner Ag Hedge. Oliver Sloup is with Blue Line Ag Futures, traveling the eastern leg of the tour. Oliver, tell me what you have found over the past two days.
Oliver Sloup: Conditions were less than ideal yesterday in Ohio. Early morning showers left significant standing water in many fields. The consensus is that the crop is on par with expectations, reflecting what we have heard from clients in the region over the past several weeks. It is a middle-of-the-road crop. We pulled several samples in District 4, and the data is tracking just below Pro Farmer’s numbers from last year. Moving into Indiana today, we see a similar scenario. Early moisture levels likely impacted population counts, and we are noting disease pressure and pollination issues. Our route today focused on Districts 4 and 5, and we are tracking roughly five to ten bushels under Pro Farmer’s 194.13 state average from last year.
Todd Gleason: Oliver Sloup is with Blue Line Ag Futures. Pro Farmer will release its tour numbers for Nebraska and Indiana tonight at 8:00 PM. The final statewide numbers will be released Friday afternoon.
15:53 Ag Energies with Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing
Todd Gleason: Let’s discuss agricultural energies with Dave Chatterton from Strategic Farm Marketing. Where is the marketplace headed now that the 60-day ceasefire memo between Iran and the United States has expired?
Dave Chatterton: The memo of understanding fell apart shortly after it was signed, so the expiration does not cause a major upset to the current market. Neither party has shown interest in renewing or modifying the agreement. Iran is threatening to expand military offensives, and the Trump administration is threatening action in Oman. The path to a diplomatic solution is widening, and there are no active negotiations at this time.
Todd Gleason: The Strait of Hormuz is essentially closed. How much impact will this have on trade between now and the end of the year?
Dave Chatterton: The global inventory situation remains tight. We are having trouble quantifying exactly how much oil is exiting the Middle East. Producers in the UAE and Saudi Arabia are utilizing a “dark fleet”—turning off transponders and using smaller ships to transport oil to larger ocean-going vessels in open waters. While more oil may be moving than is officially recorded, Q2 data from the EIA shows a 2.4 million barrel per day drawdown in global oil stocks, the largest drop in over a decade. Global distillate stocks are at three-decade lows heading into the fall harvest and winter demand period. The US will face a push-pull dynamic; domestic refineries will run at full tilt, but a substantial portion of that product will hit the export market. Higher domestic prices will be required to keep inventory stateside.
Todd Gleason: Does this mean producers who have not secured contracts are fully exposed to the spot market?
Dave Chatterton: Geopolitical headlines are heavily driving the trade. Currently, cash basis for farm diesel is relatively normal to slightly weak for this time of year, indicating that the futures market is doing the pulling. I suspect the basis market will heat up as we enter periods of higher demand. Producers without storage or forward contracts are largely at the mercy of the market. Our advice remains to keep working inventory secured ahead of time, a strategy that is increasingly critical given the tight global inventories. While we do not anticipate critical terminal outages, the price risk heavily leans to the upside in the short term.
Todd Gleason: Dave Chatterton is with Strategic Farm Marketing.
20:22 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather
Todd Gleason: Let’s turn to the weather forecast with Don Day from Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. What is the weather situation for the Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts currently working across the Midwest?
Don Day: The scouts have encountered significant rainfall. A fetch of highly saturated air is currently tracking from the Gulf, Mexico, and Central America, curving around the high-pressure system positioned over the southern US. This setup acts as a thunderstorm factory, producing continuous storm clusters over several days and nights.
Todd Gleason: What volume of precipitation are these clusters dropping as they move through areas like Nebraska?
Don Day: The thunderstorms are dropping highly concentrated pockets of one to three inches of rain. The atmosphere is holding a tremendous amount of precipitable water. Instead of generating broad, sweeping rain events, it is dropping heavy moisture in localized pockets. Over the last ten days, these frequent clusters have managed to cover nearly the entire region.
Todd Gleason: The crop currently requires cooler night temperatures and direct sunshine to advance.
Don Day: Thunderstorm frequency and intensity will begin to scale back slightly compared to the past ten days. While clusters will still develop in the high plains and drift east-southeast into the Midwest, the general trend over the next two weeks favors slightly less precipitation and cooler overnight temperatures.
Todd Gleason: Don Day is with Day Weather. This concludes the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason.
The August 18, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, provides a comprehensive update on agricultural commodity markets, ongoing crop assessments, global energy supplies, and regional weather trends. Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing breaks down recent grain price movements, noting technical resistance, profit-taking in corn and soybeans, and international supply dynamics from Southeast Asia to the Black Sea. Pro Farmer Tour crop scouts Sherman Newlin and Oliver Sloup report day-two findings from the western and eastern legs of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour across South Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Indiana, detailing the effects of severe field moisture, variable plant populations, and disease pressure on yield expectations. Dave Chatterton of Strategic Farm Marketing analyzes agricultural energies, highlighting the market impact of expired diplomatic agreements, Middle Eastern shipping disruptions, and multi-decade lows in global distillate stocks ahead of the North American fall harvest. Finally, Don Day of Day Weather reviews the active thunderstorm pattern moving across the Midwest, forecasting a gradual moderation in rain intensity alongside cooler overnight temperatures in the weeks ahead.
01:18 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing
07:25 Pro Farmer Crop Tour | Nebraska, Ohio, and Indiana
15:53 Ag Energies with Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing
20:22 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather
---
Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 18th day of August 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Blohm. We’ll have updates from both the eastern and western legs of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Dave Chatterton will be here to discuss the agricultural energies, and Don Day will join us to take a look at the weather forecast.
announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: September corn for the day settled at $4.63 and a quarter, a penny and three-quarters lower. December, down a penny and a half at $4.88. The March, $5.04, down one and a quarter. November beans, three-quarters higher at $12.16 and three-quarters, though they had a high of $12.31 and three-quarters today. January, at $12.31 and a half, finished a half-cent higher. Bean meal, up 90 cents. Bean oil, $1.75 lower. Soft red winter wheat, 8 cents lower at $6.81 and a quarter, and the hard red at $7.58 and a half, down 13 and a quarter. All of those in the December contract. Crude oil, about 24 cents higher at $83.98 a barrel. Diesel fuel, up a penny and four-tenths at $4.32 and a tenth of a cent.
01:18 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing
Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm from Total Farm Marketing now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Let’s start with soybeans. It was up fairly sharply and then turned around today. What happened?
Naomi Blohm: Bean prices worked higher based on a combination of thoughts that flooding in the eastern Midwest may hurt yields. We also caught wind that Indonesia is experiencing issues with palm oil production due to dry weather concerns with El Nino. Lower palm oil production potentially means higher demand for soybean oil, which was another reason for that market to work higher yesterday. Today, November beans reached $12.31 and three-quarters, closing in on the July high price point, but the market lacked enough immediate friendly news to justify breaking through that high. We saw profit-taking as the day progressed, posting a hook reversal lower. Soybeans will be watching the crop tour happening this week. We are also keeping an eye on options expiration on Friday for September options. The market often experiences volatility depending on where the most volume and open interest sit on those strike prices. We will likely see a sideways trading pattern this week, but in general, November beans remain well supported above $12.
Todd Gleason: The trend remains up at this point for soybeans, and corn as well?
Naomi Blohm: Corn finished today with a hook reversal lower. It reached the July price highs but lacked a reason to push through, even though crop tour numbers yesterday supported findings of lower yields. Much of that is likely already priced into the market, so there wasn’t enough bullish news to breach resistance. Corn prices will likely trade in a sideways pattern until we get a firmer handle on the US crop. We are monitoring demand, but the daily updates from the crop tour will be the driving factor this week.
Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention to outside influences, particularly the conflicts in the Middle East and the Black Sea region.
Naomi Blohm: President Trump stated traffic was occurring throughout the canal in the Middle East, attempting to keep energy markets and exports moving. The crude oil market reflected that today; it is firm, up about 50 points and trading near $85 on the nearby September contract. Prices remain supported due to the conflict, but the market isn’t trading dramatically higher because of the perception that oil is successfully moving out of the region. Regarding the Black Sea, warring continues daily. The key factor is whether they are able to export agricultural products. If exports are bottlenecked, other countries may turn to the United States, driving additional demand for our corn and wheat.
Todd Gleason: We are about 10 to 11 days from the September 1 planting start date in South America’s Mato Grosso area, a date regulated to manage Asian soybean rust. They will need rainfall to proceed. Given the El Nino issues affecting Indonesian palm oil, how critical is an on-time start for South American producers, and how will the market react if planting is delayed?
Naomi Blohm: It is a major issue. With lower production levels in Europe and the United States stemming from summer drought and current flooding, we have tighter global ending stocks for both corn and wheat. We have comfortable supplies of soybeans, but if corn and wheat rally, beans will follow. We need South America to produce a perfect crop and plant on time. If beans are delayed, their harvest will be late. A late soybean harvest pushes the planting of the second-crop corn (safrinha) late, forcing it into its critical development phase during the naturally dry time of the year. This creates a domino effect on global production and pricing. Weather forecasts, both in the United States and globally, will be the central focus moving forward.
07:25 Pro Farmer Crop Tour | Nebraska, Ohio, and Indiana
Todd Gleason: It is day two of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. We are joined by Sherman Newlin, who is traveling the western leg of the tour with Zanner Ag Hedge. Having finished South Dakota yesterday, what did you think of the crop?
Sherman Newlin: USDA’s lower estimates are accurate. Corn still needs time to finish filling out, but we saw drought-stricken corn, short plants, and suboptimal populations. They will not add bushels, but they will try to maintain what they have. If it doesn’t rain, the South Dakota yield could drop further.
Todd Gleason: The South Dakota tour number released yesterday was 149.09. USDA had 151. Tell me about the route you traveled through Nebraska today.
Sherman Newlin: It is incredibly wet. It started with pouring rain, and while the sun is out now, road ditches are full and fields are extremely muddy. Across five stops, our truck average is 189, which is behind last year’s pace. The highest yield we pulled was 226, and the lowest was 121 on non-irrigated, 36-inch rows. Bean pod counts are actually 17% higher than last year. Most of the crop we’ve evaluated is irrigated, and even the dryland fields look decent for soybeans. We have covered Hall, Hamilton, York, Polk, and Butler counties.
Todd Gleason: Have you noted any other significant damage?
Sherman Newlin: There is typical hail damage in scattered areas, but nothing severe. Corn yields are down slightly from last year, but irrigated Nebraska corn will remain largely insulated from major losses.
Todd Gleason: Sherman Newlin is with Zanner Ag Hedge. Oliver Sloup is with Blue Line Ag Futures, traveling the eastern leg of the tour. Oliver, tell me what you have found over the past two days.
Oliver Sloup: Conditions were less than ideal yesterday in Ohio. Early morning showers left significant standing water in many fields. The consensus is that the crop is on par with expectations, reflecting what we have heard from clients in the region over the past several weeks. It is a middle-of-the-road crop. We pulled several samples in District 4, and the data is tracking just below Pro Farmer’s numbers from last year. Moving into Indiana today, we see a similar scenario. Early moisture levels likely impacted population counts, and we are noting disease pressure and pollination issues. Our route today focused on Districts 4 and 5, and we are tracking roughly five to ten bushels under Pro Farmer’s 194.13 state average from last year.
Todd Gleason: Oliver Sloup is with Blue Line Ag Futures. Pro Farmer will release its tour numbers for Nebraska and Indiana tonight at 8:00 PM. The final statewide numbers will be released Friday afternoon.
15:53 Ag Energies with Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing
Todd Gleason: Let’s discuss agricultural energies with Dave Chatterton from Strategic Farm Marketing. Where is the marketplace headed now that the 60-day ceasefire memo between Iran and the United States has expired?
Dave Chatterton: The memo of understanding fell apart shortly after it was signed, so the expiration does not cause a major upset to the current market. Neither party has shown interest in renewing or modifying the agreement. Iran is threatening to expand military offensives, and the Trump administration is threatening action in Oman. The path to a diplomatic solution is widening, and there are no active negotiations at this time.
Todd Gleason: The Strait of Hormuz is essentially closed. How much impact will this have on trade between now and the end of the year?
Dave Chatterton: The global inventory situation remains tight. We are having trouble quantifying exactly how much oil is exiting the Middle East. Producers in the UAE and Saudi Arabia are utilizing a “dark fleet”—turning off transponders and using smaller ships to transport oil to larger ocean-going vessels in open waters. While more oil may be moving than is officially recorded, Q2 data from the EIA shows a 2.4 million barrel per day drawdown in global oil stocks, the largest drop in over a decade. Global distillate stocks are at three-decade lows heading into the fall harvest and winter demand period. The US will face a push-pull dynamic; domestic refineries will run at full tilt, but a substantial portion of that product will hit the export market. Higher domestic prices will be required to keep inventory stateside.
Todd Gleason: Does this mean producers who have not secured contracts are fully exposed to the spot market?
Dave Chatterton: Geopolitical headlines are heavily driving the trade. Currently, cash basis for farm diesel is relatively normal to slightly weak for this time of year, indicating that the futures market is doing the pulling. I suspect the basis market will heat up as we enter periods of higher demand. Producers without storage or forward contracts are largely at the mercy of the market. Our advice remains to keep working inventory secured ahead of time, a strategy that is increasingly critical given the tight global inventories. While we do not anticipate critical terminal outages, the price risk heavily leans to the upside in the short term.
Todd Gleason: Dave Chatterton is with Strategic Farm Marketing.
20:22 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather
Todd Gleason: Let’s turn to the weather forecast with Don Day from Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. What is the weather situation for the Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts currently working across the Midwest?
Don Day: The scouts have encountered significant rainfall. A fetch of highly saturated air is currently tracking from the Gulf, Mexico, and Central America, curving around the high-pressure system positioned over the southern US. This setup acts as a thunderstorm factory, producing continuous storm clusters over several days and nights.
Todd Gleason: What volume of precipitation are these clusters dropping as they move through areas like Nebraska?
Don Day: The thunderstorms are dropping highly concentrated pockets of one to three inches of rain. The atmosphere is holding a tremendous amount of precipitable water. Instead of generating broad, sweeping rain events, it is dropping heavy moisture in localized pockets. Over the last ten days, these frequent clusters have managed to cover nearly the entire region.
Todd Gleason: The crop currently requires cooler night temperatures and direct sunshine to advance.
Don Day: Thunderstorm frequency and intensity will begin to scale back slightly compared to the past ten days. While clusters will still develop in the high plains and drift east-southeast into the Midwest, the general trend over the next two weeks favors slightly less precipitation and cooler overnight temperatures.
Todd Gleason: Don Day is with Day Weather. This concludes the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason.