Episode Number
10421
Episode Show Notes / Description
This edition of the *Closing Market Report*, hosted by Todd Gleason, covers commodity market movements, Illinois crop prospects, and global agricultural weather. Sherman Newlin of Zaner Ag Hedge reviews the findings from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, discussing observed crop stress, shorter ear lengths, and market reactions to reduced yield estimates in Illinois and Indiana. Following a brief announcement for an upcoming FarmDoc webinar on farmland values, cash rents, and energy leases, University of Illinois agronomist Giovani Preza Fontes examines corn development, explaining that despite widespread "tip back," adequate soil moisture and favorable grain-filling conditions keep USDA's 212-bushel-per-acre projection attainable. Finally, Mark Russo of EverStream Analytics provides an ag weather outlook, forecasting drier, seasonal conditions across the Corn Belt, subdued Atlantic hurricane activity due to a strong El Niño, and critical moisture trends across the U.S. Plains, Europe, and Brazil.
01:00 Ag Markets with Sherman Newlin, Zaner Ag Hedge
08:52 WEBINAR PROMO | Rents and Prices Outlook: Results from a Mid-Year Survey
10:27 Corn Prospects in Illinois on Track with USDA
18:34 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
01:00 Ag Markets with Sherman Newlin, Zaner Ag Hedge
08:52 WEBINAR PROMO | Rents and Prices Outlook: Results from a Mid-Year Survey
10:27 Corn Prospects in Illinois on Track with USDA
18:34 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
Transcript
cmr260824
This edition of the *Closing Market Report*, hosted by Todd Gleason, covers commodity market movements, Illinois crop prospects, and global agricultural weather. Sherman Newlin of Zaner Ag Hedge reviews the findings from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, discussing observed crop stress, shorter ear lengths, and market reactions to reduced yield estimates in Illinois and Indiana. Following a brief announcement for an upcoming FarmDoc webinar on farmland values, cash rents, and energy leases, University of Illinois agronomist Giovani Preza Fontes examines corn development, explaining that despite widespread "tip back," adequate soil moisture and favorable grain-filling conditions keep USDA's 212-bushel-per-acre projection attainable. Finally, Mark Russo of EverStream Analytics provides an ag weather outlook, forecasting drier, seasonal conditions across the Corn Belt, subdued Atlantic hurricane activity due to a strong El Niño, and critical moisture trends across the U.S. Plains, Europe, and Brazil.
01:00 Ag Markets with Sherman Newlin, Zaner Ag Hedge
08:52 WEBINAR PROMO | Rents and Prices Outlook: Results from a Mid-Year Survey
10:27 Corn Prospects in Illinois on Track with USDA
18:34 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
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Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 24th day of August 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets and how they reacted to last week’s Pro Farmer national yield. We’ll do that with Sherman Newlin. He was on the western leg of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour and is with Zaner Ag Hedge. Then we’ll turn our attention to Illinois specifically, and hear from Giovani Preza Fontes about the prospects for the corn crop here. He has an entirely different view than what the crop scouts might be telling you from last week. And then we’ll turn our attention as we close out our time together to the weather forecast. We’ll do that with Mark Russo at EverStream Analytics on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media.
Announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
01:00 Ag Markets with Sherman Newlin, Zaner Ag Hedge
Todd Gleason: Sherman Newlin from Zaner Ag Hedge, he’s in Hutsonville, Illinois, now joins us to talk about the marketplace for this Monday afternoon. Hi, Sherman, thanks for being with us.
Sherman Newlin: Hey Todd, thanks for having me on.
Todd Gleason: First and most importantly, I know you had that nice white pickup truck out in the really muddy, really wet, and sometimes muddy areas of Nebraska and Iowa, Minnesota last week during the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Did you get it all cleaned up inside and out?
Sherman Newlin: Well, not inside. I did take it down to the shop and run the pressure washer over it Saturday. But yeah, so it could still use a better cleaning than what it got. But yes, it’s better than it was. But yeah, Nebraska roads were muddy. There was one area I kicked it in four-wheel drive, it was that sloppy. So, well, and it just rained a whole bunch right that morning, right before we left the hotel, so it was pretty bad.
Todd Gleason: I bet you heard actually some really good experiences from the folks who were traveling in Ohio, Indiana particularly as well, once you talked to them on Thursday evening at the larger Pro Farmer event that gathered both sides of the legs together. I don’t really want to know about what kinds of things they had fun with, but what did they say about particularly Illinois and Indiana, because I’m really interested in those two numbers. They’re low.
Sherman Newlin: Right, they are low. I mean, you take a look at Illinois, I mean it’s substantially lower than what USDA had it at, what like 28 bushel or something like that? I don’t know, somewhere in there, where Pro Farmer put it, quite a bit lower. And I think that is what they saw is pretty telling. I mean, it’s what we’ve been seeing all year, that the Illinois crop had been stressed. Uh, they had some planting issues and they had some dry weather issues in certain areas, and then just too much rain in others. I talked to some guys in the central part of the state in Illinois that said they had a heck of a time, that one field didn’t even get any nitrogen on it because it got planted late and then it just kept raining. Um, so, you know, there are a lot of issues out there, and I think what they saw reflected that in both states. I mean, and it’s mostly the ear size, ear length. And that’s what, you know, we’re finding and that’s what we’re finding out on the western leg tour as well. It’s just the ear size or length of it, the ears just weren’t there, plus there are, you know, some pollination issues and I think that’s because of the hot, warm nights, uh, in certain areas, you know, not getting down below 70 degrees did create some issues there.
Todd Gleason: So I have some questions about that that I really want to ask. And I don’t know whether I think you did some counts, kernel counts as well. What kind of counts were you getting off of these ear sizes? Do you remember?
Sherman Newlin: Uh, the kernel counts, I mean I know, I remember some yield bushels, but we weren’t really doing the kernel counts per ear right per se.
Todd Gleason: Yeah, I know you don’t. I was just hopeful that you did.
Sherman Newlin: No, we didn’t. We didn’t do that per se. But I mean, we did yield checks is how we do it. Um, but I mean a lot of the ears, like I told you Wednesday, I mean our first check in western Iowa was 134 bushel the acre. That’s surprisingly low, um, for that area. And you could just tell it had been drought stressed, you know, just from the shortness of the corn and everything that comes along with some dry weather. Um, so that area of Iowa all the way up to Spencer, I mean we found a few fields, you know, into the 200s and then some. But it was, it was pretty disappointing as far as those areas go. Um, but yeah, talking to the guys in the east, I mean they’re reflecting the same thing. Not necessarily, it’s just I think they were shocked by the length of the ear. Um, just too much water, um, at different times, right? That can create that. You can get nitrogen loss, and then you have all the wind damage that we, you know, are having to deal with, you know, even down here. We’re going to have to deal with trying to harvest some down corn.
Todd Gleason: Yeah. So I think, I had a call back into Lane Akre just to check, but I have not heard back from him as it was related to the number of ears per acre. Um, he seemed concerned about that and I think they put an awful lot of faith, it sounds like, in nitrogen loss and not being available. But I don’t know where that’s coming from because the agronomists don’t seem to be worried about that, at least not the university agronomists at this point. Nobody’s really raised an alarm.
Sherman Newlin: Well, yeah, I mean I think to a certain degree. I mean, coming back home from Chicago, I could definitely see some fields that you could show some nitrogen loss on. Um, I know, I think Ken Ferry, he was on the eastern leg maybe, or he did some touring anyway, but he spoke at the on Thursday night and he was just saying how bad the Illinois crop is. I mean that even shocked him how bad it really is. Um, either from nitrogen loss, holes, ponds in the fields, you know, that never got replanted, or just from down corn. So…
Todd Gleason: Hmm. Okay.
Sherman Newlin: Um, so yeah, I don’t know. I mean we’ll see, right?
Todd Gleason: So there was some reaction. Generally, the Monday after, there’s not a lot of reaction to these numbers when they’re released from Pro Farmer. It appears there was some today, although it may be a Ukraine/Russia thing in combination with, I don’t know, the soybean number more than anything else. I’m just not quite sure. What do you think happened today?
Sherman Newlin: I mean, corn had a big reaction from the Pro Farmer numbers overnight, right? I mean we even woke up, we were still up 12 cents. And that’s basically straight from the Pro Farmer numbers. I mean, wheat was higher during the day, you know, because of the Russia/Ukraine thing, but at one point during the day I think there was some talk that maybe Zelensky was, you know, okay to maybe sit down and talk about not bombing each other’s ag ports. But apparently that was maybe not true, but it did lead the market to fall off some during the day as well. Um, but yeah, I mean we had a good reaction in corn. I think there was a lot of farmer selling today for old crop or new crop, I’m sorry. You know, when we got, you know, up in that $5.15, $5.20 area, we almost got to $5.25. So I talked to several outfits or farmers/producers, I mean myself included. We got some hedged off at the ethanol plant for some higher prices and where we settled at. So that was good to see. Uh, so I do think there was quite a bit of selling going on. People taking advantage of it, even though we may be able to go higher later on down the road.
Todd Gleason: Do you think that the tour showing a rising bean crop and a decreasing corn crop is, can both those things be true at the same time?
Sherman Newlin: Yeah, I mean it can. It can. I don’t know if I agree necessarily with the rising bean crop. I mean they were basically basing that off the soil moisture in my opinion, I mean because we showed lower pod levels for the most part, in most of the, in a lot of the states overall. Uh, but they were just relying on the fact that hey, this time of year, we typically have no mud on our boots, um, in these fields in any of these states to speak of, and everybody had it, you know, clear across all the seven states that we checked. So I think just that the fact that the ground was having, you know, quite a bit of moisture and that could lead to a good finish into the soybean crop is I think why they led to that assumption for the soybeans, you know, time will tell obviously.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thanks much, Sherman. I appreciate it a lot.
Sherman Newlin: Alright, thanks Todd.
Todd Gleason: You’re welcome. That’s Sherman Newlin. He is with Zaner Ag Hedge.com.
08:52 WEBINAR PROMO | Rents and Prices Outlook: Results from a Mid-Year Survey
Todd Gleason: You’re listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world. Here’s a reminder for something coming up on Thursday of this week. You can stay right at your own home or wherever you happen to be. This is a webinar in which the ag economists will present results of a mid-year survey asking what the outlook is for farmland prices at the end of 2026, and for cash rents going into 2027. The survey also asked respondents about wind and solar leases along with activity in data centers. All that information will be presented at 11:00 on Thursday morning of this week. You can join us for the FarmDoc webinar either by signing up on the FarmDoc website at farmdoc.illinois.edu under the webinar section, or go into the calendar at willag.org and you’ll find a link there. You’ll probably have to cut and paste that or maybe open it a second time to make it hot. But it’s easy enough to do. The webinars only last an hour. You can join us on Thursday, the 27th, that’s this week at 11:00 AM Central time for the rents and prices outlook, results from a mid-year survey webinar from the FarmDoc team.
10:27 Corn Prospects in Illinois on Track with USDA
Todd Gleason: We’re now joined by Giovani Preza Fontes. He is the Extension field crops agronomist in the Department of Crop Sciences located here on the Urbana-Champaign campus at the University of Illinois. And has written an article for the FarmDoc website and Crop Central sites. It’s entitled “Late Season Weather and the 2026 Illinois Corn Crop.” Probably easiest to find it on WILL because you’re used to going there: willag.org. Again, the title “Late Season Weather and the 2026 Illinois Corn Crop.” We’ll talk about late season weather, but let’s start with something that those who have been in the fields, whether it happened to be just after pollination or in the last week or so, have been talking about for some time now. This is tip back. Can you tell me about tip back and what it means in an ear?
Giovani Preza Fontes: Sure, yeah, Todd. I mean, like you said, we usually see some degree of tip back every year, and then I wonder if people actually forget about that. But anyway, yeah, I mean as we would expect to see, there’s a lot of discussion on tip back this year. The tip back means, you know, some of the kernels at the top of the tip were either not fertilized or what we call the pollination failure. Or sometimes we usually see if conditions are stressed after pollination, we still see some kernels being aborted up to maybe two weeks after silking. And it’s easy to see if you look at the tip of the corn cob. I mean if you only see like the cob tissue, the very white kind of plant tissue, it means that the pollination failure failed. The ovules were actually never fertilized by the pollen. And if you see kernels aborted, it means that the ovules were fertilized and the kernels started to grow, but then they aborted because, you know, any source of stress after pollination. And you usually see that kind of yellowish coloration that resembles a kernel, but then it will start to shrivel and then just die off.
Todd Gleason: Okay. So when we’re scouting the fields and we find those, we can take counts, we shouldn’t count those shriveled kernels because they’re not going to make a kernel. So when we’re making our yield counts, we would take those off. Right. So then the question remains, how big the rest of the kernels do get. And particularly for this year, I think it is an interesting prospect because we’ve had so much rainfall so widely spread across the bulk of the Corn Belt that grain fill—and I don’t know whether you think it will be an issue in parts of the Corn Belt or not—but grain fill probably should be pretty good and we might have fewer kernels but they might be really big. Is that right?
Giovani Preza Fontes: Yeah, and then again, the discussion around tip back it’s because at the end of the day, it affects one of the three components of yield on the corn crop, right? So again, if you think about where yields are coming from, it’s a function of the number of ears per acre with one plant producing one primary ear, number of kernels per ear, and then the kernel weight. Right? So again, the tip back will reduce the number of kernels per ear, but then again you’re probably not counting that. But I think we had a discussion in the article, you know, if you go out in the field and you see on average 500 to 500 kernels per ear, that’s still on average, and like you said, I would also agree that, you know, I would expect probably above average conditions for grain filling in Illinois specifically. I mean, we could use a little bit more sunshine, especially now that we have enough moisture to carry out the crop to the end, which by the way I think in the forecast they’re calling for warmer temperatures, so that will be good. And again, if you’re out there and you’re still counting 500 to 550 kernels per ear on average, I think there’s still a good chance to have average yields. It’s not going to be a record yield, but it’s still decent yields.
Todd Gleason: What’s a decent ear population in the state of Illinois per acre?
Giovani Preza Fontes: Yeah, I mean if you look at the USDA data, I think they were averaging about 33,000, between 33 and 34, and if you look at our data from our research trials, we usually see, you know, that’s taking into account the price of seed, we usually see the economic return on investment for seed is anywhere between 33 to 36,000 plants per acre. And I think if you look at the USDA data again, I think their survey says, you know, we’re within that range. So I would say if you’re between 33 and 36, you’re still on average. Of course, there’s a lot more people pushing populations high, and again thinking about where yields are coming from. Um, but I think on average we should be around 34, 35.
Todd Gleason: And that would be ears per acre, not plants per acre, there are, so there’s a seeding rate and then there’s the ear rate as well.
Giovani Preza Fontes: Yeah, and again, modern hybrids, you know, usually we see a primary ear per plant, so I think it’s interchangeably we use plants per acre or ears per acre, but we’re probably referring to the same thing.
Todd Gleason: If there is a second ear in it and it is viable, do you count it?
Giovani Preza Fontes: Yeah, I mean, if there’s a second ear, there’s probably an indication that, you know, the population was probably lower than optimum, because the plants will sense it and they just have less competition and they will put a lot more allocation of their, you know, carbohydrates and photosynthates into producing a secondary ear, a smaller ear size, but they’re still contributing to the overall yield.
Todd Gleason: One final question for you, Gio. USDA in its August crop production report dropped the corn yield from the 183 trendline to 180.7 bushels to the acre nationally. It put the Illinois crop at 212 bushels to the acre. Do we have that opportunity?
Giovani Preza Fontes: I think so, Todd. I mean, you know, just to summarize, we talked about ear size being sort of everything, and you know, like we generally see high yields are more often associated with kernel numbers than unusually heavier kernels. But again, most fields have retained that good canopy color as we moved into August. Most fields have good ear size, so that’s good news. Um, we have enough moisture, and I think if we had some warmer weather in the next coming weeks, I mean there’s not much reason to doubt that we shouldn’t average 212, which is two bushels lower than the final yield from last year. But again, I don’t think we, we have, you know, we’re probably not going to break yield record again in the state, but I mean there’s also no reason to doubt that we shouldn’t have, you know, close to 214 like we saw last year.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thanks much, I appreciate it a lot.
Giovani Preza Fontes: Yeah, you’re welcome Todd, thanks.
Todd Gleason: You’re welcome. That’s Giovani Preza Fontes, University of Illinois agronomist. You can read more by searching out his article posted to the Crop Central website. Search for “Late Season Weather and the 2026 Illinois Corn Crop.”
18:34 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
Todd Gleason: Let’s take a look at the weather forecast for some of the growing regions across the planet. Mark Russo is here. He is with EverStream Analytics. Hello, Mark, thanks for being with us. Can you start for me in the Corn Belt? It appears to me that we have made it through the bulk of the rain and now we have sunshine, nice temperatures actually, and some good grain fill weather, at least for the week. Is that the case for the whole of the Corn Belt?
Mark Russo: Well, Todd, yeah, we think that is the case here looking out over these next few weeks. And this stormy, what had been a stormy early to middle part of August, that has now come to an end. And going forward, well there is a little bit of rain around, certainly the pattern is much less active. And specifically, we are forecasting rainfall totals to range anywhere from near to below normal levels over the next couple of weeks. So, not only this week, but next week as well. And on top of that, what had been the previously, you know, wettest areas, including here in Illinois, but also in Indiana, Ohio, and even a little bit of Iowa as well, that’s actually going to be the driest area here going forward. So certainly a much different pattern here from a rainfall standpoint. And then in regards to temperatures, temperatures for this week will be quite seasonal. In fact, even a few days here the next couple of days will actually be a touch cooler than the 10-year normal. But next week, readings warm up a little bit. But all in all, it’s a pretty typical pattern temperature-wise for late August and early September.
Todd Gleason: Given that pattern, it does sound as if the tropics, or the hurricane season that is usually beginning as we finish up the month of August, might not be that active yet. Is that the case?
Mark Russo: Uh, yes. And that’s not a surprise, this inactive Atlantic basin, just because of the super El Niño that’s going on right now across the Pacific Ocean. And with El Niño events, especially the strongest ones which we’re seeing right now, that increases wind shear and suppresses overall development of tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Atlantic. As we look out this week, it actually signs that the Atlantic will come a little bit to life here. There are a couple of waves that we’re watching that could develop into a very weak or brief tropical depression or tropical storm. But even if that did occur, it would not impact any land areas or the US here coming up. So, bottom line, no threat of any tropical systems here in the US as we move into really the heart of the hurricane season here, late August and early September.
Todd Gleason: Anything else in the northern hemisphere we need to be watching?
Mark Russo: Yeah, one last area here in North America. We are watching increasing rainfall, and actually one area that is trending wetter is the central and southern Plains. So for upcoming winter wheat planting, that’s a beneficial situation and very timely. Europe is also turning wetter here, but it’s coming too late to improve any of their summer crop prospects, which again, their growing season, especially Western Europe, one of the worst on record here. But for upcoming winter crop planting, that’ll be beneficial, as well as starting to improve their river transportation issues. And then finally, in the southern hemisphere, for Brazil, we continue to watch some unseasonably hot temperatures continue across center-west and much of northern Brazil. While that area is still on the dry side, which it still can tend to be at this time of year before the rainy season kicks in later in September, that combination of heat and lack of rain will quickly deplete topsoil moisture. And so that puts a lot of emphasis on the rainy season to kick in in a very timely manner here in about a month from now and reduce any of those dryness or delayed planting concerns.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. I appreciate it a lot.
Mark Russo: Yeah, you’re welcome Todd, thanks.
Todd Gleason: You’re welcome. That’s Mark Russo. He is with EverStream Analytics joining us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org.
This edition of the *Closing Market Report*, hosted by Todd Gleason, covers commodity market movements, Illinois crop prospects, and global agricultural weather. Sherman Newlin of Zaner Ag Hedge reviews the findings from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, discussing observed crop stress, shorter ear lengths, and market reactions to reduced yield estimates in Illinois and Indiana. Following a brief announcement for an upcoming FarmDoc webinar on farmland values, cash rents, and energy leases, University of Illinois agronomist Giovani Preza Fontes examines corn development, explaining that despite widespread "tip back," adequate soil moisture and favorable grain-filling conditions keep USDA's 212-bushel-per-acre projection attainable. Finally, Mark Russo of EverStream Analytics provides an ag weather outlook, forecasting drier, seasonal conditions across the Corn Belt, subdued Atlantic hurricane activity due to a strong El Niño, and critical moisture trends across the U.S. Plains, Europe, and Brazil.
01:00 Ag Markets with Sherman Newlin, Zaner Ag Hedge
08:52 WEBINAR PROMO | Rents and Prices Outlook: Results from a Mid-Year Survey
10:27 Corn Prospects in Illinois on Track with USDA
18:34 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
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Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 24th day of August 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets and how they reacted to last week’s Pro Farmer national yield. We’ll do that with Sherman Newlin. He was on the western leg of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour and is with Zaner Ag Hedge. Then we’ll turn our attention to Illinois specifically, and hear from Giovani Preza Fontes about the prospects for the corn crop here. He has an entirely different view than what the crop scouts might be telling you from last week. And then we’ll turn our attention as we close out our time together to the weather forecast. We’ll do that with Mark Russo at EverStream Analytics on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media.
Announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
01:00 Ag Markets with Sherman Newlin, Zaner Ag Hedge
Todd Gleason: Sherman Newlin from Zaner Ag Hedge, he’s in Hutsonville, Illinois, now joins us to talk about the marketplace for this Monday afternoon. Hi, Sherman, thanks for being with us.
Sherman Newlin: Hey Todd, thanks for having me on.
Todd Gleason: First and most importantly, I know you had that nice white pickup truck out in the really muddy, really wet, and sometimes muddy areas of Nebraska and Iowa, Minnesota last week during the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Did you get it all cleaned up inside and out?
Sherman Newlin: Well, not inside. I did take it down to the shop and run the pressure washer over it Saturday. But yeah, so it could still use a better cleaning than what it got. But yes, it’s better than it was. But yeah, Nebraska roads were muddy. There was one area I kicked it in four-wheel drive, it was that sloppy. So, well, and it just rained a whole bunch right that morning, right before we left the hotel, so it was pretty bad.
Todd Gleason: I bet you heard actually some really good experiences from the folks who were traveling in Ohio, Indiana particularly as well, once you talked to them on Thursday evening at the larger Pro Farmer event that gathered both sides of the legs together. I don’t really want to know about what kinds of things they had fun with, but what did they say about particularly Illinois and Indiana, because I’m really interested in those two numbers. They’re low.
Sherman Newlin: Right, they are low. I mean, you take a look at Illinois, I mean it’s substantially lower than what USDA had it at, what like 28 bushel or something like that? I don’t know, somewhere in there, where Pro Farmer put it, quite a bit lower. And I think that is what they saw is pretty telling. I mean, it’s what we’ve been seeing all year, that the Illinois crop had been stressed. Uh, they had some planting issues and they had some dry weather issues in certain areas, and then just too much rain in others. I talked to some guys in the central part of the state in Illinois that said they had a heck of a time, that one field didn’t even get any nitrogen on it because it got planted late and then it just kept raining. Um, so, you know, there are a lot of issues out there, and I think what they saw reflected that in both states. I mean, and it’s mostly the ear size, ear length. And that’s what, you know, we’re finding and that’s what we’re finding out on the western leg tour as well. It’s just the ear size or length of it, the ears just weren’t there, plus there are, you know, some pollination issues and I think that’s because of the hot, warm nights, uh, in certain areas, you know, not getting down below 70 degrees did create some issues there.
Todd Gleason: So I have some questions about that that I really want to ask. And I don’t know whether I think you did some counts, kernel counts as well. What kind of counts were you getting off of these ear sizes? Do you remember?
Sherman Newlin: Uh, the kernel counts, I mean I know, I remember some yield bushels, but we weren’t really doing the kernel counts per ear right per se.
Todd Gleason: Yeah, I know you don’t. I was just hopeful that you did.
Sherman Newlin: No, we didn’t. We didn’t do that per se. But I mean, we did yield checks is how we do it. Um, but I mean a lot of the ears, like I told you Wednesday, I mean our first check in western Iowa was 134 bushel the acre. That’s surprisingly low, um, for that area. And you could just tell it had been drought stressed, you know, just from the shortness of the corn and everything that comes along with some dry weather. Um, so that area of Iowa all the way up to Spencer, I mean we found a few fields, you know, into the 200s and then some. But it was, it was pretty disappointing as far as those areas go. Um, but yeah, talking to the guys in the east, I mean they’re reflecting the same thing. Not necessarily, it’s just I think they were shocked by the length of the ear. Um, just too much water, um, at different times, right? That can create that. You can get nitrogen loss, and then you have all the wind damage that we, you know, are having to deal with, you know, even down here. We’re going to have to deal with trying to harvest some down corn.
Todd Gleason: Yeah. So I think, I had a call back into Lane Akre just to check, but I have not heard back from him as it was related to the number of ears per acre. Um, he seemed concerned about that and I think they put an awful lot of faith, it sounds like, in nitrogen loss and not being available. But I don’t know where that’s coming from because the agronomists don’t seem to be worried about that, at least not the university agronomists at this point. Nobody’s really raised an alarm.
Sherman Newlin: Well, yeah, I mean I think to a certain degree. I mean, coming back home from Chicago, I could definitely see some fields that you could show some nitrogen loss on. Um, I know, I think Ken Ferry, he was on the eastern leg maybe, or he did some touring anyway, but he spoke at the on Thursday night and he was just saying how bad the Illinois crop is. I mean that even shocked him how bad it really is. Um, either from nitrogen loss, holes, ponds in the fields, you know, that never got replanted, or just from down corn. So…
Todd Gleason: Hmm. Okay.
Sherman Newlin: Um, so yeah, I don’t know. I mean we’ll see, right?
Todd Gleason: So there was some reaction. Generally, the Monday after, there’s not a lot of reaction to these numbers when they’re released from Pro Farmer. It appears there was some today, although it may be a Ukraine/Russia thing in combination with, I don’t know, the soybean number more than anything else. I’m just not quite sure. What do you think happened today?
Sherman Newlin: I mean, corn had a big reaction from the Pro Farmer numbers overnight, right? I mean we even woke up, we were still up 12 cents. And that’s basically straight from the Pro Farmer numbers. I mean, wheat was higher during the day, you know, because of the Russia/Ukraine thing, but at one point during the day I think there was some talk that maybe Zelensky was, you know, okay to maybe sit down and talk about not bombing each other’s ag ports. But apparently that was maybe not true, but it did lead the market to fall off some during the day as well. Um, but yeah, I mean we had a good reaction in corn. I think there was a lot of farmer selling today for old crop or new crop, I’m sorry. You know, when we got, you know, up in that $5.15, $5.20 area, we almost got to $5.25. So I talked to several outfits or farmers/producers, I mean myself included. We got some hedged off at the ethanol plant for some higher prices and where we settled at. So that was good to see. Uh, so I do think there was quite a bit of selling going on. People taking advantage of it, even though we may be able to go higher later on down the road.
Todd Gleason: Do you think that the tour showing a rising bean crop and a decreasing corn crop is, can both those things be true at the same time?
Sherman Newlin: Yeah, I mean it can. It can. I don’t know if I agree necessarily with the rising bean crop. I mean they were basically basing that off the soil moisture in my opinion, I mean because we showed lower pod levels for the most part, in most of the, in a lot of the states overall. Uh, but they were just relying on the fact that hey, this time of year, we typically have no mud on our boots, um, in these fields in any of these states to speak of, and everybody had it, you know, clear across all the seven states that we checked. So I think just that the fact that the ground was having, you know, quite a bit of moisture and that could lead to a good finish into the soybean crop is I think why they led to that assumption for the soybeans, you know, time will tell obviously.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thanks much, Sherman. I appreciate it a lot.
Sherman Newlin: Alright, thanks Todd.
Todd Gleason: You’re welcome. That’s Sherman Newlin. He is with Zaner Ag Hedge.com.
08:52 WEBINAR PROMO | Rents and Prices Outlook: Results from a Mid-Year Survey
Todd Gleason: You’re listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world. Here’s a reminder for something coming up on Thursday of this week. You can stay right at your own home or wherever you happen to be. This is a webinar in which the ag economists will present results of a mid-year survey asking what the outlook is for farmland prices at the end of 2026, and for cash rents going into 2027. The survey also asked respondents about wind and solar leases along with activity in data centers. All that information will be presented at 11:00 on Thursday morning of this week. You can join us for the FarmDoc webinar either by signing up on the FarmDoc website at farmdoc.illinois.edu under the webinar section, or go into the calendar at willag.org and you’ll find a link there. You’ll probably have to cut and paste that or maybe open it a second time to make it hot. But it’s easy enough to do. The webinars only last an hour. You can join us on Thursday, the 27th, that’s this week at 11:00 AM Central time for the rents and prices outlook, results from a mid-year survey webinar from the FarmDoc team.
10:27 Corn Prospects in Illinois on Track with USDA
Todd Gleason: We’re now joined by Giovani Preza Fontes. He is the Extension field crops agronomist in the Department of Crop Sciences located here on the Urbana-Champaign campus at the University of Illinois. And has written an article for the FarmDoc website and Crop Central sites. It’s entitled “Late Season Weather and the 2026 Illinois Corn Crop.” Probably easiest to find it on WILL because you’re used to going there: willag.org. Again, the title “Late Season Weather and the 2026 Illinois Corn Crop.” We’ll talk about late season weather, but let’s start with something that those who have been in the fields, whether it happened to be just after pollination or in the last week or so, have been talking about for some time now. This is tip back. Can you tell me about tip back and what it means in an ear?
Giovani Preza Fontes: Sure, yeah, Todd. I mean, like you said, we usually see some degree of tip back every year, and then I wonder if people actually forget about that. But anyway, yeah, I mean as we would expect to see, there’s a lot of discussion on tip back this year. The tip back means, you know, some of the kernels at the top of the tip were either not fertilized or what we call the pollination failure. Or sometimes we usually see if conditions are stressed after pollination, we still see some kernels being aborted up to maybe two weeks after silking. And it’s easy to see if you look at the tip of the corn cob. I mean if you only see like the cob tissue, the very white kind of plant tissue, it means that the pollination failure failed. The ovules were actually never fertilized by the pollen. And if you see kernels aborted, it means that the ovules were fertilized and the kernels started to grow, but then they aborted because, you know, any source of stress after pollination. And you usually see that kind of yellowish coloration that resembles a kernel, but then it will start to shrivel and then just die off.
Todd Gleason: Okay. So when we’re scouting the fields and we find those, we can take counts, we shouldn’t count those shriveled kernels because they’re not going to make a kernel. So when we’re making our yield counts, we would take those off. Right. So then the question remains, how big the rest of the kernels do get. And particularly for this year, I think it is an interesting prospect because we’ve had so much rainfall so widely spread across the bulk of the Corn Belt that grain fill—and I don’t know whether you think it will be an issue in parts of the Corn Belt or not—but grain fill probably should be pretty good and we might have fewer kernels but they might be really big. Is that right?
Giovani Preza Fontes: Yeah, and then again, the discussion around tip back it’s because at the end of the day, it affects one of the three components of yield on the corn crop, right? So again, if you think about where yields are coming from, it’s a function of the number of ears per acre with one plant producing one primary ear, number of kernels per ear, and then the kernel weight. Right? So again, the tip back will reduce the number of kernels per ear, but then again you’re probably not counting that. But I think we had a discussion in the article, you know, if you go out in the field and you see on average 500 to 500 kernels per ear, that’s still on average, and like you said, I would also agree that, you know, I would expect probably above average conditions for grain filling in Illinois specifically. I mean, we could use a little bit more sunshine, especially now that we have enough moisture to carry out the crop to the end, which by the way I think in the forecast they’re calling for warmer temperatures, so that will be good. And again, if you’re out there and you’re still counting 500 to 550 kernels per ear on average, I think there’s still a good chance to have average yields. It’s not going to be a record yield, but it’s still decent yields.
Todd Gleason: What’s a decent ear population in the state of Illinois per acre?
Giovani Preza Fontes: Yeah, I mean if you look at the USDA data, I think they were averaging about 33,000, between 33 and 34, and if you look at our data from our research trials, we usually see, you know, that’s taking into account the price of seed, we usually see the economic return on investment for seed is anywhere between 33 to 36,000 plants per acre. And I think if you look at the USDA data again, I think their survey says, you know, we’re within that range. So I would say if you’re between 33 and 36, you’re still on average. Of course, there’s a lot more people pushing populations high, and again thinking about where yields are coming from. Um, but I think on average we should be around 34, 35.
Todd Gleason: And that would be ears per acre, not plants per acre, there are, so there’s a seeding rate and then there’s the ear rate as well.
Giovani Preza Fontes: Yeah, and again, modern hybrids, you know, usually we see a primary ear per plant, so I think it’s interchangeably we use plants per acre or ears per acre, but we’re probably referring to the same thing.
Todd Gleason: If there is a second ear in it and it is viable, do you count it?
Giovani Preza Fontes: Yeah, I mean, if there’s a second ear, there’s probably an indication that, you know, the population was probably lower than optimum, because the plants will sense it and they just have less competition and they will put a lot more allocation of their, you know, carbohydrates and photosynthates into producing a secondary ear, a smaller ear size, but they’re still contributing to the overall yield.
Todd Gleason: One final question for you, Gio. USDA in its August crop production report dropped the corn yield from the 183 trendline to 180.7 bushels to the acre nationally. It put the Illinois crop at 212 bushels to the acre. Do we have that opportunity?
Giovani Preza Fontes: I think so, Todd. I mean, you know, just to summarize, we talked about ear size being sort of everything, and you know, like we generally see high yields are more often associated with kernel numbers than unusually heavier kernels. But again, most fields have retained that good canopy color as we moved into August. Most fields have good ear size, so that’s good news. Um, we have enough moisture, and I think if we had some warmer weather in the next coming weeks, I mean there’s not much reason to doubt that we shouldn’t average 212, which is two bushels lower than the final yield from last year. But again, I don’t think we, we have, you know, we’re probably not going to break yield record again in the state, but I mean there’s also no reason to doubt that we shouldn’t have, you know, close to 214 like we saw last year.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thanks much, I appreciate it a lot.
Giovani Preza Fontes: Yeah, you’re welcome Todd, thanks.
Todd Gleason: You’re welcome. That’s Giovani Preza Fontes, University of Illinois agronomist. You can read more by searching out his article posted to the Crop Central website. Search for “Late Season Weather and the 2026 Illinois Corn Crop.”
18:34 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
Todd Gleason: Let’s take a look at the weather forecast for some of the growing regions across the planet. Mark Russo is here. He is with EverStream Analytics. Hello, Mark, thanks for being with us. Can you start for me in the Corn Belt? It appears to me that we have made it through the bulk of the rain and now we have sunshine, nice temperatures actually, and some good grain fill weather, at least for the week. Is that the case for the whole of the Corn Belt?
Mark Russo: Well, Todd, yeah, we think that is the case here looking out over these next few weeks. And this stormy, what had been a stormy early to middle part of August, that has now come to an end. And going forward, well there is a little bit of rain around, certainly the pattern is much less active. And specifically, we are forecasting rainfall totals to range anywhere from near to below normal levels over the next couple of weeks. So, not only this week, but next week as well. And on top of that, what had been the previously, you know, wettest areas, including here in Illinois, but also in Indiana, Ohio, and even a little bit of Iowa as well, that’s actually going to be the driest area here going forward. So certainly a much different pattern here from a rainfall standpoint. And then in regards to temperatures, temperatures for this week will be quite seasonal. In fact, even a few days here the next couple of days will actually be a touch cooler than the 10-year normal. But next week, readings warm up a little bit. But all in all, it’s a pretty typical pattern temperature-wise for late August and early September.
Todd Gleason: Given that pattern, it does sound as if the tropics, or the hurricane season that is usually beginning as we finish up the month of August, might not be that active yet. Is that the case?
Mark Russo: Uh, yes. And that’s not a surprise, this inactive Atlantic basin, just because of the super El Niño that’s going on right now across the Pacific Ocean. And with El Niño events, especially the strongest ones which we’re seeing right now, that increases wind shear and suppresses overall development of tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Atlantic. As we look out this week, it actually signs that the Atlantic will come a little bit to life here. There are a couple of waves that we’re watching that could develop into a very weak or brief tropical depression or tropical storm. But even if that did occur, it would not impact any land areas or the US here coming up. So, bottom line, no threat of any tropical systems here in the US as we move into really the heart of the hurricane season here, late August and early September.
Todd Gleason: Anything else in the northern hemisphere we need to be watching?
Mark Russo: Yeah, one last area here in North America. We are watching increasing rainfall, and actually one area that is trending wetter is the central and southern Plains. So for upcoming winter wheat planting, that’s a beneficial situation and very timely. Europe is also turning wetter here, but it’s coming too late to improve any of their summer crop prospects, which again, their growing season, especially Western Europe, one of the worst on record here. But for upcoming winter crop planting, that’ll be beneficial, as well as starting to improve their river transportation issues. And then finally, in the southern hemisphere, for Brazil, we continue to watch some unseasonably hot temperatures continue across center-west and much of northern Brazil. While that area is still on the dry side, which it still can tend to be at this time of year before the rainy season kicks in later in September, that combination of heat and lack of rain will quickly deplete topsoil moisture. And so that puts a lot of emphasis on the rainy season to kick in in a very timely manner here in about a month from now and reduce any of those dryness or delayed planting concerns.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. I appreciate it a lot.
Mark Russo: Yeah, you’re welcome Todd, thanks.
Todd Gleason: You’re welcome. That’s Mark Russo. He is with EverStream Analytics joining us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org.