Episode Number
10423
Episode Show Notes / Description
The August 26, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report features three primary segments covering agricultural markets, community programs, and weather forecasts. Greg Johnson of TGM analyzes a significant recent rally in commodity prices, attributing the gains to global supply-side pressures and the Pro Farmer crop tour, while advising producers to capitalize on current profitable margins. The program then shifts to farmer and broker Garrett Toay, who highlights the localized benefits of Dolly Parton’s Imagination Library on early childhood literacy. Finally, Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. examines global and domestic weather patterns, utilizing historical El Niño data to project a warmer, drier trend for the western Corn Belt and stabilizing conditions in the eastern regions.
01:17 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM
10:49 Dolly Parton's Imagination Library and a Farmer's Family
13:59 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc
01:17 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM
10:49 Dolly Parton's Imagination Library and a Farmer's Family
13:59 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc
Transcript
cmr260826
The August 26, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report features three primary segments covering agricultural markets, community programs, and weather forecasts. Greg Johnson of TGM analyzes a significant recent rally in commodity prices, attributing the gains to global supply-side pressures and the Pro Farmer crop tour, while advising producers to capitalize on current profitable margins. The program then shifts to farmer and broker Garrett Toay, who highlights the localized benefits of Dolly Parton’s Imagination Library on early childhood literacy. Finally, Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. examines global and domestic weather patterns, utilizing historical El Niño data to project a warmer, drier trend for the western Corn Belt and stabilizing conditions in the eastern regions.
01:17 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM
10:49 Dolly Parton's Imagination Library and a Farmer's Family
13:59 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc
---
Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 26th day of August, 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll discuss the commodity markets with Greg Johnson. We’ll take up the weather forecast with Drew Lerner, and we’ll hear how Dolly Parton’s Imagination Library has impacted the life and family of one of the brokers you hear regularly right here on Illinois Public Media.
announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: September corn for the day settled the nearby contract 13 and a half cents higher at $5.14. December at $5.36 and a half, up 13. And the March, up 12 and a quarter. New crop there at $5.50 and three-quarters on its settlement price. September beans, 26 and a quarter cents higher, finished at $12.54 and a quarter. November at $12.66, up 28 and a quarter. And January soybeans at $12.80 and three-quarters of a cent, 28 and a half cents higher. Bean meal, $8.40 higher. The bean oil, down 30 cents for the day. Wheat futures, where the action really took place, up 45 cents at $7.48 and a quarter in the December. That is a limit move for the afternoon.
01:17 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM
Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson from TGM, Total Grain Marketing, now joins us to take a look at what’s been happening in the marketplace. Are you busy there again today in the elevator, Greg?
Greg Johnson: We are. We’re seeing farmers reward this rally, selling mainly old crop corn, but a little bit of new crop corn and a few new crop beans as well. We’ve been out of old crop beans for quite some time, so we’re not buying any old crop beans to speak of, but the other three commodities, yes. Farmers are taking advantage of this rally to some extent. Not selling lots, afraid that it’s going to keep going higher, but I think they are willing to reward the market and let loose of a little bit at these prices.
Todd Gleason: How much of a rally have we had in corn?
Greg Johnson: Back on June 30th, December corn was $4.30. Today we’re at $5.34. So, just over a dollar rally in the corn. New crop beans, the November contract was $11.20 back on June 30th, and in less than two months’ time, we’re now at $12.50. That’s a $1.30 gain. And the wheat, July 27 wheat was $6.30 back on June 30th, and now it’s $7.50. That’s a $1.20 rally. Over a dollar or more rally in all three of the major commodities.
Todd Gleason: By the ratios there, corn seems like the most impressive rally. I want to throw out some things you can discuss as it relates to this corn rally. I think they’re all supply-side. The first one was the dry, droughty weather in Paris and parts of Western Europe that impacted the corn crop there. Then, of course, we have the war in the Black Sea and the increase in fighting related to their port system, both Russia and Ukraine. Finally, the United States corn crop, particularly the Pro Farmer numbers as they were released. I think I got all of those correct. What do you think?
Greg Johnson: I agree 100% on Pro Farmer. That is a supply-driven reduction in the crop. I would argue that a reduction in the supply of the French, German, and Spanish corn crop, and a reduction in the exports out of Ukraine and Russia, would translate into increased demand here out of the U.S. If you can’t get the crop from France or Ukraine like you normally do, you’re going to have to buy it from somewhere. Smaller supply could lead to increased demand on those first two points. But there’s no doubt that the Pro Farmer numbers here in the U.S. represent a definite supply reduction.
Just to keep people from saying the sky is the limit, Pioneer did a survey they do every year in the state of Iowa where they’re located. They had over 4,000 samples of corn. They came up with a 226 average, which is 1% less than a year ago, but it’s way higher than the 194 that Pro Farmer is using for Iowa. That is something to keep in mind; the route that Pro Farmer takes has a lot to do with their final numbers. I understand why they came up with those numbers. For example, here in Illinois, they went through some of the wettest areas—that central I–74 corridor, and then up along Route 24 through the Quad Cities. Those areas received heavy rain. We need to remember we had heavy rains in June, and I think we lost some nitrogen at that point. That is a big reason for the reduction of the crop in central Illinois and central Indiana.
However, a reduction is not a disaster. If your corn didn’t drown out or get blown over by the wind or tornadoes, there is some decent corn out there. Maybe a little bit less than average or right at average, certainly not the big yields we were expecting. Pro Farmer hit it on the head when they said the crop is not as good as it looks from the field. I agree with that, but it probably isn’t as low as what they said either, because I don’t think the entire state got hit by the wet weather in June and August like we did here through central Illinois and central Indiana.
Todd Gleason: As a reminder, their number is about 188 bushels. For what it’s worth, the agronomists on campus at the UI still say this is a good crop and in that 212 range from USDA. We’ll know more when the September report comes out. What should we talk about with soybeans today?
Greg Johnson: Soybeans haven’t rallied as much. They’ve gone up, but percentage-wise, they haven’t gone up as much as corn has. A little bit of pressure on soybeans is coming from the EPA talk about exempting small refineries; that would hurt the soybean oil price a little bit. The bottom line with soybeans is China. They continue to buy soybeans. We see these flash sales about every two or three days, and by my calculation, they’re up close to 50% of the 25 million metric tons they are expected to buy. That 25 million is baked into the supply and demand tables already, but the fact that they’re making progress toward it is a good sign. We’ll have to wait and see after President Trump and President Xi talk. Will they use some of that money for other commodities? Will they buy more beans than the 25 million, or less? China is a big wildcard.
Todd Gleason: Here’s a fact that will really throw you. The PowerPoint slide that Gary Schnitkey put up yesterday showed the percent of soybean imports that the United States represented for the current marketing year. If you go back to the first Trump administration, the low was 18% for a marketing year. This time around, it is now at 19% for the marketing year. Given our demand structure, there is a lot of domestic demand underpinning this marketplace for soybeans.
Greg Johnson: Yes, it’s the renewable crush, the renewable biodiesel mandate. Soybean oil has been leading the way all along. If it was soybean demand, soybean meal would be the leader, but soybean oil is the leader of the bean market. You can pin that right on the renewable biodiesel mandate.
Todd Gleason: I will see Gary tomorrow for a webinar about cash rents and the price of farmland at 11 o’clock at farmdocdaily.illinois.edu. I’ll try to get some clarification on what demand looks like for soybeans from his point of view. Anything else before I let you go?
Greg Johnson: I want to remind producers that we’re now in profitable territory, so we’ve got a little bit of cushion. We don’t have to try to hit the high of the market. If it sells off, we can still sell corn and beans a little bit lower and make money. Farmers are still historically undersold. Even with the recent selling they’ve done, I still think we’re under 30% sold for new crop corn and soybeans. Usually, when farmers are undersold like this, the market doesn’t rally. This is a very unusual opportunity, and one that farmers should take advantage of. If you need to sell grain and don’t want to pay storage charges, these are definitely profitable levels.
Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, Greg.
Greg Johnson: Thank you, Todd.
Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson is with TGM. You’re listening to the Closing Market Report on this Wednesday afternoon. Up next, Dolly Parton’s cultural impact extends far beyond her country music. She’s also responsible for helping to lift her hometown in the Smoky Mountains out of poverty and gifting millions of books to children.
10:49 Dolly Parton’s Imagination Library and a Farmer’s Family
Todd Gleason: Dolly Parton’s music gave her the financial resources to take care of her people in Pigeon Forge and help raise that region of the Smoky Mountains out of poverty, wrote Garrett Toay from Stockton, Illinois on his X account. She helped his family too, he says, through her charitable organization, Imagination Library. I asked him about it.
Garrett Toay: In our local area, she works with local banks to help facilitate the project. For any child from birth to the age of five, you sign up for the program and get a free book every month until you start kindergarten. She did that to honor her father, who didn’t know how to read. She has bought millions of books for children. My children participated in it, and it’s available to anybody. They donate a ton of money to these programs to help teach children to read.
Todd Gleason: How are you involved?
Garrett Toay: I’m not involved personally. We just benefited from it for my children. My wife, Bridget, is a huge Dolly Parton fan. On vacation this year we went to Pigeon Forge and Dollywood. She had heard about it online. I was not familiar with it at all until my wife mentioned it.
Todd Gleason: How do you think it benefited your children?
Garrett Toay: It got them reading at an early age. It made that a priority. Going to the library is one thing, but you have to return that book. The fact that she gives you a book with no obligation whatsoever—it’s something that they own and helps create reading as a priority.
Todd Gleason: That was important enough that you really wanted to make a comment on X about it.
Garrett Toay: She lived her life with a big heart and strong hands. When she climbed the ladder, she made sure that she didn’t pull it up behind her. She let others in her area climb that ladder as well.
Todd Gleason: That’s Garrett Toay from AgTraderTalk.com. He’s a farmer and a commodity broker in Stockton, Illinois. Over the last 31 years, Dolly Parton’s Imagination Library has gifted more than 330 million books across five different countries.
13:59 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc
Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Drew Lerner is here for this Wednesday as usual from World Weather Inc. He’s in Kansas City, Missouri. Thank you, Drew, for being with us. Let’s begin in South America, the Center-West of Brazil, where they cannot plant a soybean because of Asian soybean rust until at least September 1st. They will need rainfall to get started. What are their prospects?
Drew Lerner: They don’t get enough rain in the off-season to keep any moisture in the soil; they just bake themselves dry. There is a difference in the model data the last few days, suggesting that there will be some scattered showers that will evolve. Most of these are going to be light, but that’s how you start. The first opportunity for rain will probably evolve around midweek next week, maybe Tuesday into Thursday. This is mid-latitude frontal boundary activity, not monsoonal or subtropical moisture coming out of the Amazon. I did notice that the Southern Hemisphere’s jet stream is further north than it should be at this time of the year, so frontal systems like this may occur over the next 10 days. We may see other opportunities for scattered showers. If that’s the case, some producers may start making an effort to get into the fields closer to mid-September.
Todd Gleason: What do you think the weather will bring across the Corn Belt for the next 10 days or so?
Drew Lerner: I went back and took a hard look at some of the stronger El Niño events we’ve had. In most of those years, there was a tendency for August and September weather to be drier-biased in the western Corn Belt—parts of Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and to a lesser degree in southern Minnesota and southeastern South Dakota. If we’re going to follow some of these other years, there is a potential we may be drier-biased over the next 30 days. It will not be absolutely dry; there will be some showers around, but it’s probably going to be lighter than usual rain in those areas. This comes from that persistent high-pressure ridge, which had been in the Rocky Mountains. As it shifts more into the central and southern Plains, we will see a persistence of that drier tendency, and it will put more heat into the southern Plains. Texas and Oklahoma have had temperatures near or over 100 for about 35 to 40 days, and that could continue. We have a little break over these next two or three days; it’s going to be a little showery, and temperatures will come down into the 90s. Then we’ll turn right around and go back into the 100-degree temperatures.
Todd Gleason: Any differences between the western areas and the eastern part of the Corn Belt?
Drew Lerner: For those areas, it doesn’t look tremendously different. I do think we’ll get away from the excessive rains that have plagued Indiana and Ohio recently. It will continue to rain off and on in that area, but I don’t think the volume of rain will be what it was. We are still going to have a slightly milder temperature regime in September, and we’re still going to get shower activity. We’re going to be slow drying some of those areas out that are still excessively wet.
Todd Gleason: You discussed earlier that you were looking at previous El Niños. Did you take a look at that across the planet?
Drew Lerner: I did. I took the most significant recent strong or super El Niño events of the past—1982, 1997, 2015—and took a look at the vegetative health indexes for those years as of mid-August compared to this year. Most of the Asian countries—India, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia—were all seriously dry by mid-August in each of those events, particularly in 1982 and 1997. When we look at the vegetative health index today, even though Indonesia is doing poorly with rain, the health index is still much better than these other years. The reason is all that La Niña-related rainfall that we had for the past couple of years has provided moisture in the ground that’s helped carry these crops.
Todd Gleason: Did you look at the U.S. at all?
Drew Lerner: I did. I also looked at Western Europe, because the media has had a tendency to blame the drought in France and Western Europe on El Niño, and the same for the excessive heat and dryness in the Rocky Mountain region and the Plains this summer. In the case of Europe, the drought there was already underway a year ago. Typically, super El Niños tend to make Western Europe wetter-biased rather than drier-biased, so we can’t link the drought in Europe this year with this super El Niño event. In the Western United States, the excessive heat and dryness are coming largely from the absence of snow we had in the spring. Soil temperatures got hotter sooner. When our seasonal ridge of high pressure developed, it perpetuated itself, and we ended up with much warmer temperatures. When we look at El Niño events of the past, the Western United States typically is wetter than normal in the summer, with a tendency for temperatures to be warm-biased, but not as excessively hot as they were this year.
Todd Gleason: Thank you so much for the information. We’ll talk with you again next week.
Drew Lerner: Take care now.
Todd Gleason: Drew Lerner is with World Weather Inc. in Kansas City and joined us on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media online on-demand at WILLAg.org. You have a good afternoon. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason.
The August 26, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report features three primary segments covering agricultural markets, community programs, and weather forecasts. Greg Johnson of TGM analyzes a significant recent rally in commodity prices, attributing the gains to global supply-side pressures and the Pro Farmer crop tour, while advising producers to capitalize on current profitable margins. The program then shifts to farmer and broker Garrett Toay, who highlights the localized benefits of Dolly Parton’s Imagination Library on early childhood literacy. Finally, Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. examines global and domestic weather patterns, utilizing historical El Niño data to project a warmer, drier trend for the western Corn Belt and stabilizing conditions in the eastern regions.
01:17 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM
10:49 Dolly Parton's Imagination Library and a Farmer's Family
13:59 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc
---
Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 26th day of August, 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll discuss the commodity markets with Greg Johnson. We’ll take up the weather forecast with Drew Lerner, and we’ll hear how Dolly Parton’s Imagination Library has impacted the life and family of one of the brokers you hear regularly right here on Illinois Public Media.
announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: September corn for the day settled the nearby contract 13 and a half cents higher at $5.14. December at $5.36 and a half, up 13. And the March, up 12 and a quarter. New crop there at $5.50 and three-quarters on its settlement price. September beans, 26 and a quarter cents higher, finished at $12.54 and a quarter. November at $12.66, up 28 and a quarter. And January soybeans at $12.80 and three-quarters of a cent, 28 and a half cents higher. Bean meal, $8.40 higher. The bean oil, down 30 cents for the day. Wheat futures, where the action really took place, up 45 cents at $7.48 and a quarter in the December. That is a limit move for the afternoon.
01:17 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM
Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson from TGM, Total Grain Marketing, now joins us to take a look at what’s been happening in the marketplace. Are you busy there again today in the elevator, Greg?
Greg Johnson: We are. We’re seeing farmers reward this rally, selling mainly old crop corn, but a little bit of new crop corn and a few new crop beans as well. We’ve been out of old crop beans for quite some time, so we’re not buying any old crop beans to speak of, but the other three commodities, yes. Farmers are taking advantage of this rally to some extent. Not selling lots, afraid that it’s going to keep going higher, but I think they are willing to reward the market and let loose of a little bit at these prices.
Todd Gleason: How much of a rally have we had in corn?
Greg Johnson: Back on June 30th, December corn was $4.30. Today we’re at $5.34. So, just over a dollar rally in the corn. New crop beans, the November contract was $11.20 back on June 30th, and in less than two months’ time, we’re now at $12.50. That’s a $1.30 gain. And the wheat, July 27 wheat was $6.30 back on June 30th, and now it’s $7.50. That’s a $1.20 rally. Over a dollar or more rally in all three of the major commodities.
Todd Gleason: By the ratios there, corn seems like the most impressive rally. I want to throw out some things you can discuss as it relates to this corn rally. I think they’re all supply-side. The first one was the dry, droughty weather in Paris and parts of Western Europe that impacted the corn crop there. Then, of course, we have the war in the Black Sea and the increase in fighting related to their port system, both Russia and Ukraine. Finally, the United States corn crop, particularly the Pro Farmer numbers as they were released. I think I got all of those correct. What do you think?
Greg Johnson: I agree 100% on Pro Farmer. That is a supply-driven reduction in the crop. I would argue that a reduction in the supply of the French, German, and Spanish corn crop, and a reduction in the exports out of Ukraine and Russia, would translate into increased demand here out of the U.S. If you can’t get the crop from France or Ukraine like you normally do, you’re going to have to buy it from somewhere. Smaller supply could lead to increased demand on those first two points. But there’s no doubt that the Pro Farmer numbers here in the U.S. represent a definite supply reduction.
Just to keep people from saying the sky is the limit, Pioneer did a survey they do every year in the state of Iowa where they’re located. They had over 4,000 samples of corn. They came up with a 226 average, which is 1% less than a year ago, but it’s way higher than the 194 that Pro Farmer is using for Iowa. That is something to keep in mind; the route that Pro Farmer takes has a lot to do with their final numbers. I understand why they came up with those numbers. For example, here in Illinois, they went through some of the wettest areas—that central I–74 corridor, and then up along Route 24 through the Quad Cities. Those areas received heavy rain. We need to remember we had heavy rains in June, and I think we lost some nitrogen at that point. That is a big reason for the reduction of the crop in central Illinois and central Indiana.
However, a reduction is not a disaster. If your corn didn’t drown out or get blown over by the wind or tornadoes, there is some decent corn out there. Maybe a little bit less than average or right at average, certainly not the big yields we were expecting. Pro Farmer hit it on the head when they said the crop is not as good as it looks from the field. I agree with that, but it probably isn’t as low as what they said either, because I don’t think the entire state got hit by the wet weather in June and August like we did here through central Illinois and central Indiana.
Todd Gleason: As a reminder, their number is about 188 bushels. For what it’s worth, the agronomists on campus at the UI still say this is a good crop and in that 212 range from USDA. We’ll know more when the September report comes out. What should we talk about with soybeans today?
Greg Johnson: Soybeans haven’t rallied as much. They’ve gone up, but percentage-wise, they haven’t gone up as much as corn has. A little bit of pressure on soybeans is coming from the EPA talk about exempting small refineries; that would hurt the soybean oil price a little bit. The bottom line with soybeans is China. They continue to buy soybeans. We see these flash sales about every two or three days, and by my calculation, they’re up close to 50% of the 25 million metric tons they are expected to buy. That 25 million is baked into the supply and demand tables already, but the fact that they’re making progress toward it is a good sign. We’ll have to wait and see after President Trump and President Xi talk. Will they use some of that money for other commodities? Will they buy more beans than the 25 million, or less? China is a big wildcard.
Todd Gleason: Here’s a fact that will really throw you. The PowerPoint slide that Gary Schnitkey put up yesterday showed the percent of soybean imports that the United States represented for the current marketing year. If you go back to the first Trump administration, the low was 18% for a marketing year. This time around, it is now at 19% for the marketing year. Given our demand structure, there is a lot of domestic demand underpinning this marketplace for soybeans.
Greg Johnson: Yes, it’s the renewable crush, the renewable biodiesel mandate. Soybean oil has been leading the way all along. If it was soybean demand, soybean meal would be the leader, but soybean oil is the leader of the bean market. You can pin that right on the renewable biodiesel mandate.
Todd Gleason: I will see Gary tomorrow for a webinar about cash rents and the price of farmland at 11 o’clock at farmdocdaily.illinois.edu. I’ll try to get some clarification on what demand looks like for soybeans from his point of view. Anything else before I let you go?
Greg Johnson: I want to remind producers that we’re now in profitable territory, so we’ve got a little bit of cushion. We don’t have to try to hit the high of the market. If it sells off, we can still sell corn and beans a little bit lower and make money. Farmers are still historically undersold. Even with the recent selling they’ve done, I still think we’re under 30% sold for new crop corn and soybeans. Usually, when farmers are undersold like this, the market doesn’t rally. This is a very unusual opportunity, and one that farmers should take advantage of. If you need to sell grain and don’t want to pay storage charges, these are definitely profitable levels.
Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, Greg.
Greg Johnson: Thank you, Todd.
Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson is with TGM. You’re listening to the Closing Market Report on this Wednesday afternoon. Up next, Dolly Parton’s cultural impact extends far beyond her country music. She’s also responsible for helping to lift her hometown in the Smoky Mountains out of poverty and gifting millions of books to children.
10:49 Dolly Parton’s Imagination Library and a Farmer’s Family
Todd Gleason: Dolly Parton’s music gave her the financial resources to take care of her people in Pigeon Forge and help raise that region of the Smoky Mountains out of poverty, wrote Garrett Toay from Stockton, Illinois on his X account. She helped his family too, he says, through her charitable organization, Imagination Library. I asked him about it.
Garrett Toay: In our local area, she works with local banks to help facilitate the project. For any child from birth to the age of five, you sign up for the program and get a free book every month until you start kindergarten. She did that to honor her father, who didn’t know how to read. She has bought millions of books for children. My children participated in it, and it’s available to anybody. They donate a ton of money to these programs to help teach children to read.
Todd Gleason: How are you involved?
Garrett Toay: I’m not involved personally. We just benefited from it for my children. My wife, Bridget, is a huge Dolly Parton fan. On vacation this year we went to Pigeon Forge and Dollywood. She had heard about it online. I was not familiar with it at all until my wife mentioned it.
Todd Gleason: How do you think it benefited your children?
Garrett Toay: It got them reading at an early age. It made that a priority. Going to the library is one thing, but you have to return that book. The fact that she gives you a book with no obligation whatsoever—it’s something that they own and helps create reading as a priority.
Todd Gleason: That was important enough that you really wanted to make a comment on X about it.
Garrett Toay: She lived her life with a big heart and strong hands. When she climbed the ladder, she made sure that she didn’t pull it up behind her. She let others in her area climb that ladder as well.
Todd Gleason: That’s Garrett Toay from AgTraderTalk.com. He’s a farmer and a commodity broker in Stockton, Illinois. Over the last 31 years, Dolly Parton’s Imagination Library has gifted more than 330 million books across five different countries.
13:59 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc
Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Drew Lerner is here for this Wednesday as usual from World Weather Inc. He’s in Kansas City, Missouri. Thank you, Drew, for being with us. Let’s begin in South America, the Center-West of Brazil, where they cannot plant a soybean because of Asian soybean rust until at least September 1st. They will need rainfall to get started. What are their prospects?
Drew Lerner: They don’t get enough rain in the off-season to keep any moisture in the soil; they just bake themselves dry. There is a difference in the model data the last few days, suggesting that there will be some scattered showers that will evolve. Most of these are going to be light, but that’s how you start. The first opportunity for rain will probably evolve around midweek next week, maybe Tuesday into Thursday. This is mid-latitude frontal boundary activity, not monsoonal or subtropical moisture coming out of the Amazon. I did notice that the Southern Hemisphere’s jet stream is further north than it should be at this time of the year, so frontal systems like this may occur over the next 10 days. We may see other opportunities for scattered showers. If that’s the case, some producers may start making an effort to get into the fields closer to mid-September.
Todd Gleason: What do you think the weather will bring across the Corn Belt for the next 10 days or so?
Drew Lerner: I went back and took a hard look at some of the stronger El Niño events we’ve had. In most of those years, there was a tendency for August and September weather to be drier-biased in the western Corn Belt—parts of Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and to a lesser degree in southern Minnesota and southeastern South Dakota. If we’re going to follow some of these other years, there is a potential we may be drier-biased over the next 30 days. It will not be absolutely dry; there will be some showers around, but it’s probably going to be lighter than usual rain in those areas. This comes from that persistent high-pressure ridge, which had been in the Rocky Mountains. As it shifts more into the central and southern Plains, we will see a persistence of that drier tendency, and it will put more heat into the southern Plains. Texas and Oklahoma have had temperatures near or over 100 for about 35 to 40 days, and that could continue. We have a little break over these next two or three days; it’s going to be a little showery, and temperatures will come down into the 90s. Then we’ll turn right around and go back into the 100-degree temperatures.
Todd Gleason: Any differences between the western areas and the eastern part of the Corn Belt?
Drew Lerner: For those areas, it doesn’t look tremendously different. I do think we’ll get away from the excessive rains that have plagued Indiana and Ohio recently. It will continue to rain off and on in that area, but I don’t think the volume of rain will be what it was. We are still going to have a slightly milder temperature regime in September, and we’re still going to get shower activity. We’re going to be slow drying some of those areas out that are still excessively wet.
Todd Gleason: You discussed earlier that you were looking at previous El Niños. Did you take a look at that across the planet?
Drew Lerner: I did. I took the most significant recent strong or super El Niño events of the past—1982, 1997, 2015—and took a look at the vegetative health indexes for those years as of mid-August compared to this year. Most of the Asian countries—India, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia—were all seriously dry by mid-August in each of those events, particularly in 1982 and 1997. When we look at the vegetative health index today, even though Indonesia is doing poorly with rain, the health index is still much better than these other years. The reason is all that La Niña-related rainfall that we had for the past couple of years has provided moisture in the ground that’s helped carry these crops.
Todd Gleason: Did you look at the U.S. at all?
Drew Lerner: I did. I also looked at Western Europe, because the media has had a tendency to blame the drought in France and Western Europe on El Niño, and the same for the excessive heat and dryness in the Rocky Mountain region and the Plains this summer. In the case of Europe, the drought there was already underway a year ago. Typically, super El Niños tend to make Western Europe wetter-biased rather than drier-biased, so we can’t link the drought in Europe this year with this super El Niño event. In the Western United States, the excessive heat and dryness are coming largely from the absence of snow we had in the spring. Soil temperatures got hotter sooner. When our seasonal ridge of high pressure developed, it perpetuated itself, and we ended up with much warmer temperatures. When we look at El Niño events of the past, the Western United States typically is wetter than normal in the summer, with a tendency for temperatures to be warm-biased, but not as excessively hot as they were this year.
Todd Gleason: Thank you so much for the information. We’ll talk with you again next week.
Drew Lerner: Take care now.
Todd Gleason: Drew Lerner is with World Weather Inc. in Kansas City and joined us on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media online on-demand at WILLAg.org. You have a good afternoon. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason.