Episode Number
10472
Episode Show Notes / Description
This episode of the Closing Market Report features discussions on agricultural commodity trends, fall specialty crops, and global weather impacts. Agricultural economist Ed Usset analyzes the recent downturn in crop and crude oil prices, noting that while soybeans are supported by strong crush demand, corn and wheat are struggling to find positive recovery signals. The broadcast then highlights two fall stories: the 75th anniversary of the USDA APHIS international pre-clearance program for imports like Dutch tulip bulbs, and a profile of Illinois's dominance in the processing pumpkin industry. Finally, Mark Russo from EverStream Analytics provides an agricultural weather outlook, covering harvest-slowing rains in the American Midwest, persistent dry conditions threatening Indonesian palm oil, and early-season planting weather across South America.
02:10 Commodity Markets Discussion with Ed Usset
11:43 Tulips and Pumpkins, a story for the fall
16:04 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
02:10 Commodity Markets Discussion with Ed Usset
11:43 Tulips and Pumpkins, a story for the fall
16:04 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
Transcript
cmr261102
This episode of the Closing Market Report features discussions on agricultural commodity trends, fall specialty crops, and global weather impacts. Agricultural economist Ed Usset analyzes the recent downturn in crop and crude oil prices, noting that while soybeans are supported by strong crush demand, corn and wheat are struggling to find positive recovery signals. The broadcast then highlights two fall stories: the 75th anniversary of the USDA APHIS international pre-clearance program for imports like Dutch tulip bulbs, and a profile of Illinois's dominance in the processing pumpkin industry. Finally, Mark Russo from EverStream Analytics provides an agricultural weather outlook, covering harvest-slowing rains in the American Midwest, persistent dry conditions threatening Indonesian palm oil, and early-season planting weather across South America.
02:10 Commodity Markets Discussion with Ed Usset
11:43 Tulips and Pumpkins, a story for the fall
16:04 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
---
Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the second day of November 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Just a quick reminder to visit our website at willag.org, where today you’ll find a way to register for the upcoming FarmDoc Illinois Farm Economics Summits to take place in the month of December in Mount Vernon, the Springfield area at Sherman, as well as in Peoria and DeKalb. You can do that right now. Now, coming up on our program today, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Ed Usset, agricultural economist from the University of Minnesota. We’ll hear about a couple of fall-related specialty crops, and then we’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast. Mark Russo will be here from EverStream Analytics on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report.
announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: Well, we’ll start today with the crude oil rather than the grains and oil seeds because their prices have been tumbling after a report from Axios said that President Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that he wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time before resuming strikes on the country. That caused crude oil prices to tumble. They are currently trading down $7.70 at $96.42 a barrel for the West Texas Intermediate crude, and the Brent is at $104.92, down $8.52. That has caused soybeans to tumble lower. November contract at $12.04 and three-quarters, that’s 17 and a half lower on the settlement price. January at $12.16 and three-quarters, down 17 and a half, and March beans at $12.26 and a half, down 17 and a quarter. Bean meal off $5, and the bean oil 82 cents lower. December soft red winter wheat at $4.48 and a quarter, up a half. That’s corn, rather. March at $4.62, a penny higher, and the May futures at $4.70 and three-quarters for the corn, up a penny and three-quarters on this Monday afternoon.
02:10 Commodity Markets Discussion with Ed Usset
Todd Gleason: Ed Usset, agricultural economist with Extension at the University of Minnesota, now joins us. Hi, Ed, thanks for being with us again. I appreciate it. Tough day to talk about the marketplace, though they have had a lot going on all fall long. We haven’t talked for a month, what have you been watching?
Ed Usset: Well, I’m just watching the market like everyone else. You know, I had this thought the other day, we’ve been talking about diesel prices for six, eight weeks. You know, they spiked and just at the wrong time. And Todd, four to six weeks ago, a month, a month and a half ago, I’m getting questions from the press about high diesel prices and how much effect this will have. And my comment was, yeah, it’s a problem, but cash prices for soybeans and for corn are at three-year highs, and that’s going to cover a lot of ills, right? Well, I get that question today, and yes, diesel prices are high, but we’re no longer at three-year highs. Now, the soybean price in the grand scheme of things, even though they’re down a dollar from their highs, I mean it’s still a pretty good cash price for soybeans. But corn, oh my goodness, we’ve done a round trip right back to our August lows essentially, and this story of high corn prices will cover that diesel is in the rearview mirror now. It’s been a tough two months. Tougher for soybeans, tougher for corn. I’ve got corn prices down 15, 16% from their early September highs. That’s a big move. Even though it’s harvest, that’s a big move. We don’t find a lot of years like that. Doggone spring wheat, and I know Todd that you and your listeners don’t like talking about hard red spring wheat, but I can’t help but look at it, and it made life-of-contract lows last week. Life-of-contract lows, after topping and getting close to $8 a bushel just eight weeks ago. It’s been a rough two months.
Todd Gleason: So, a rough two months. Is there recovery in this marketplace? Why the push? Was it all just oil-related from July and the Strait of Hormuz and what was happening with Russia and Ukraine? Much like a drought kind of zips up, people figure out what’s going on, and the market addresses the issues—meaning it moves things around and rejiggers what it needs for demand in some form—and now we’re on the backside going down, or is there recovery in this market that can happen?
Ed Usset: Well, I’m looking at all those issues. I think soybeans are holding up the best. Even though they’re down a dollar, they’re holding up on a relative basis, they’re holding up the best because demand is good, and strong demand will trump big supply. And so demand is holding up good in the world of soybeans. Not so much in corn, not so much in wheat. And you asked a good question, where to from here, and I’m looking at that. I’m looking at years similar to this year. I found five or six other years in the last four decades where we had a really big sell-off into harvest, and you know, Todd, your listeners are going to tell me to tell my history numbers to shut up because it doesn’t look good as we look forward. Those years where we collapsed like this, not a real rosy future. Yeah, a little bit of a bounce, if you want to think about how high it could get out in the next six, eight months, but these are not our best years. None of those years were years where, you know, the May or the July contract was up a buck or two bucks. Recovery, modest at best.
Todd Gleason: Well, let’s talk about recovery in soybeans first. I’m thinking that the USDA has the season’s average cash price, and I’ll check this for sure, but I believe it is at $12 now. Can we manage that?
Ed Usset: Well, like I say, I feel best about soybeans because strong demand is there. You know, we’ve got China back in the market. We’ve got our cross our fingers and hope they go for the full 25 million metric tons. They’re on their way. The crush demand is good and growing, and that’s going to help that soybean market. I wish we had a similar story in corn and wheat.
Todd Gleason: So for corn, the season’s average cash price by USDA in their October WASDE was $4.70. Boy, right now that feels strong, doesn’t it?
Ed Usset: Yes, it feels strong, and I don’t know if we’re going to get that. I don’t know if we’re going to get that. I just am almost borderline depressed, Todd, having looked at some of this history, and I’m like, come on, what are your years that have a good recovery, you know, after this big harvest collapse? And I’m not finding it. Now, this sort of analysis is imperfect at best, every year is different, but we need demand to show up stronger in the corn and wheat balance sheets to make them move. By the way, there was an interesting announcement last week that there is a new ethanol plant being built, a greenfield brand new plant in western North Dakota. And Todd, I don’t know how far back we have to go to find a new greenfield ethanol plant being built in this country. Maybe it might be 10, 15 years.
Todd Gleason: Western North Dakota is way out there too, they would have to draw from quite a long distance.
Ed Usset: Yeah, it is. It surprises me a bit too, but the corn belt’s been moving west and north for a couple of decades. Somebody sees an opportunity out there. But it is the first, you know, we’ve had announcements of new crush plants going for three or four years, four or five years now, but this is the first new greenfield ethanol plant, and it’s not going to open for a couple of years, but I think it’s the first one in 10 or 15 years.
Todd Gleason: Is it co-located with the oil processing plant?
Ed Usset: Good question. That is servicing, and I’m going to guess it would service not renewable diesel, but SAF, with ethanol to jet fuel, but I don’t know whether that’d be the case or not.
Todd Gleason: I did not see that in the announcement. I’d have to, it’s in Glen Ullin, North Dakota, and that’s not the right place. But it could be close.
Ed Usset: It could be. I don’t think so though, I think that would have been part of the announcement had it been tied into another facility like that.
Todd Gleason: Well, we will have to look and see why that’s the case. But first, export market for corn, will it be stimulated by the lower prices?
Ed Usset: Well, you gotta hope so. You gotta hope so. And it’s running behind last year, but last year was an extraordinary year. We’ve got to pick it up here in the next couple of months, or we’ve got issues. That crop year average price put out by USDA is going to look lofty if we don’t start turning it around.
Todd Gleason: Is wheat the leader in this process in your opinion?
Ed Usset: Wheat the leader? We don’t want wheat to be the leader. I know that, but is it for you? No. Wheat is not the leader, wheat is just an incredible disappointment.
Todd Gleason: Which is the leader in that case? Because it does make a difference whether it’s corn or soybeans.
Ed Usset: Yeah, I’m hearing stirs of a debate that somehow the soybean market is holding up too strong and it too must collapse to follow corn and wheat. And I’m like, I don’t necessarily think that, because soybeans has demand. It has a demand story to talk about, and that’s a big help. That’s a big positive.
Todd Gleason: Local crush in the United States, domestic usage seems to be the driving force there. We’ll see how that turns out. Thank you much. We’ll talk with you again next month.
Ed Usset: Okay sir. Take care.
Todd Gleason: You too. That is Ed Usset. He is an agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota.
11:43 Tulips and Pumpkins, a story for the fall
Todd Gleason: Up next, a couple of fall-related stories. Did you know that in the post-World War II era, the United States created the first-ever international pre-clearance program? The model entails mitigating pest risk in the country of origin rather than at US ports of entry, and that has had some real economic benefits, as Matt Rhoads from APHIS or the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service explains.
Matt Rhoads: This in turn reduces handling costs and holds at the ports. It moves commodities faster through the ports, which results in direct savings that importers can reinvest in growth, logistics, and product diversification.
Todd Gleason: Rhoads says these pre-clearance partnerships ensure secure supply chains, predictable trade relations, and science-based international standards. He also says they help ensure that the products entering the United States meet the highest levels of quality and safety, and they allow US consumers and growers to benefit from a healthy, diverse, and resilient agricultural system. Now, during the 75th anniversary of the pre-clearance program, he pointed to the collaboration with the Netherlands through the Dutch flower bulbs and perennials pre-clearance program as an example.
Matt Rhoads: The Dutch flower bulbs and perennials pre-clearance program remains the oldest program of its kind in the world. It continues to set the standard for international cooperation in safeguarding and facilitating trade. That is accomplished by having USDA APHIS personnel inspect Dutch tulip bulbs in the Netherlands for pests and disease risk prior to shipment to the United States. This oldest pre-clearance framework set the stage for dozens of other similar programs around the globe, which Matt Rhoads from USDA APHIS says includes many benefits. The pre-clearance inspection protocol moves agricultural products faster. It saves businesses on both sides of the trade money, and each can reinvest that money into other aspects of their operations.
Todd Gleason: Now, here’s another specialty crop story for the fall. Although this one is from right here in the good ol’ US of A, the state of Illinois, the Peoria area, and this campus. Rod Bain has more.
Rod Bain: Now, if one state could claim a pumpkin obsession, that would be Illinois. Mohammad Babadoost of University of Illinois Extension explains why.
Mohammad Babadoost: Illinois is the leading state in pumpkin production. We do have roughly 25,000 acres of pumpkins every year. A little more than half of that are for processing pumpkins, canned pumpkin.
Rod Bain: That is because at least over 70% of US pumpkins meant for processing are grown in the Illini state. A phytophthora blight outbreak nearly devastated the Illinois pumpkin industry in 1998. Since then…
Mohammad Babadoost: We increased the production from about 6,000 to over 16,000 acres. And right now we are pretty safe. Pumpkins are very good this year.
Rod Bain: I’m Rod Bain reporting for the US Department of Agriculture in Washington, DC.
Todd Gleason: FYI, Illinois harvests more than twice as many pumpkin acres as the next five states combined. That according to USDA in 2022. The next closest state, Indiana, our neighbor, grew just over 161 million pounds of pumpkins. Most of the processing pumpkins, that 16 to 17,000 acres worth in the state of Illinois, are grown near Peoria. Those are processed over about a 100-day period in the fall at either the Nestle Libby plant in Morton or the Seneca Foods plant in Princeville. The village of Morton, by the way, is known as the pumpkin capital of the world. The vast majority of the pumpkin pie filling on the store shelves around the nation, something like 85 to 90%, is processed in this state. Most of that comes from Morton. The Princeville plant processes pumpkins primarily for the food service industry.
16:04 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention to the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Here to help us out today is Mark Russo. He’s at EverStream Analytics. Hi Mark, thanks for being with us. Hope you had a great holiday weekend for Halloween.
Mark Russo: Yeah, thanks. Thanks, Todd. I certainly did, and gave a lot of candy out there this weekend.
Todd Gleason: Yeah, me too, that’s always a problem, but I’ll get over it eventually. So let’s turn our attention to the weather forecast. Our producers are still harvesting across the corn belt. Tell me what kind of conditions they will or won’t be able to work under this week.
Mark Russo: Yeah, well, the rains that started over the weekend, which were scattered in nature, are going to become more widespread across the Midwest and even down into the Delta here this week. So as a result, this is going to slow down fieldwork operations here and overall harvest activity for the next week. We don’t see things bogging down or seeing large areas of very heavy rainfall, but certainly a slower week this week compared to last week. Now, looking out later into the second week of November, it does look like that rain shower activity will become more scattered and that looks to then improve the situation here next week compared to this week.
Todd Gleason: There are a couple of things particularly in the primary corn belt that need to happen, or that producers are hopeful will happen. They’d like the soil temperatures at the four-inch level bare to drop under 50 degrees, so those places in, for instance, the northern two-thirds of Illinois can run anhydrous tanks across the field and get some of their nitrogen on for the fall. Do you see cooling happening?
Mark Russo: Um, some cooling, Todd, but we don’t see a pattern that would consistently force those types of favorable soil temperatures here coming up over the next few weeks. There is going to be this period, albeit brief, of more seasonal temperatures, highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s generally coming up here over the upcoming weekend and early next week, but then temperatures quickly climb back to warmer than normal levels after that.
Todd Gleason: Okay. Now turn your attention to the plain states. I know you’ve been watching them and the hard red winter wheat growing regions.
Mark Russo: Yeah, they have been active. They look to stay active, which continues to improve soil moisture across the hard red belt. It’s also causing some delays in planting, but a much more favorable pattern here in terms of recharging soil moisture. And on top of the favorable soil moisture and overall planting conditions, actually the warm temperatures that have been and will continue to be in place will promote rapid germination, emergence, and early growth of the newly planted crops.
Todd Gleason: We’ll get to South America in just a moment, but I do want to go east across the pond. Start in Europe. Tell me about conditions there. Have they recovered from the drought in those areas that were really hot and short of rainfall precipitation over the last several months?
Mark Russo: Yeah, not really. In fact, soil moisture for late October and early November for Europe as a whole is at its lowest levels in the past 20 years. And we saw that a lot this past summer. And while there has been at least more rain relative to what happened in the summer, that has not solved things across much of Europe. And we see this drier pattern continuing over the next few weeks. With the exception of areas near the Mediterranean, that’s where activity will be more frequent and that region will be more unsettled. But for the largest winter crop areas such as France and Germany, we don’t see any significant turnaround in the pattern here coming up.
Todd Gleason: Again, before we get to South America, I wanted to turn your attention to a different vegetable oil, palm oil. What are your concerns for those growing regions, for instance, in Indonesia?
Mark Russo: Yeah, we have significant concerns in Indonesia. In fact, by our metrics here, their palm conditions are the lowest for this time of year compared to any year in the past 10 years. And that has been driven by this extreme dryness and heat that developed from late July onward and continues to impact the region. And we see that persisting here throughout much of November and likely beyond, again driven by the super El Nino, which typically produces well below normal rainfall across the core palm producing areas of Indonesia.
Todd Gleason: Speaking of super El Nino, how is it impacting the growing regions in Brazil and Argentina related to soybeans?
Mark Russo: Yeah, right now across South America, it has not resulted in any kind of big concerning patterns. But, you know, certainly some items to watch. Again, typically with El Ninos you tend to have a wetter bias south in areas such as Argentina and Southern Brazil. And we have seen some significant wetness across Southern Brazil as a wet pattern has been persistent here over the past couple of months. It hasn’t really caused any kind of significant delays in planting, but some localized areas have experienced some flooding. Now, up north across Center-West Brazil, El Ninos can help to produce below normal rainfall at times, and there have been some drier weeks across Center-West Brazil. But again, they had an early start to the rainy season back in September that significantly boosted soil moisture reserves. And so those drier weeks of late have actually helped for rapid planting of soybeans. And so, coming up here, we see an increase in rain across Center-West Brazil, not really this week but next week. So it looks to keep them in pretty good shape here with no dryness concerns of note as we look out through the next several weeks.
Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Mark. I appreciate it.
Mark Russo: You’re welcome. Thanks for having me, Todd.
Todd Gleason: That’s Mark Russo. He is with EverStream Analytics and joined us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. Do visit our website, willag.org, where today you can register for the December Illinois Farm Economics Summits. This year there are four of them. We’ll begin in Mount Vernon in Southern Illinois, make our way to Sherman near Springfield in Central Illinois, Peoria, and then we’ll wrap up in DeKalb. That’s all in December. You can find the details online again at willag.org. You have a great afternoon. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.
This episode of the Closing Market Report features discussions on agricultural commodity trends, fall specialty crops, and global weather impacts. Agricultural economist Ed Usset analyzes the recent downturn in crop and crude oil prices, noting that while soybeans are supported by strong crush demand, corn and wheat are struggling to find positive recovery signals. The broadcast then highlights two fall stories: the 75th anniversary of the USDA APHIS international pre-clearance program for imports like Dutch tulip bulbs, and a profile of Illinois's dominance in the processing pumpkin industry. Finally, Mark Russo from EverStream Analytics provides an agricultural weather outlook, covering harvest-slowing rains in the American Midwest, persistent dry conditions threatening Indonesian palm oil, and early-season planting weather across South America.
02:10 Commodity Markets Discussion with Ed Usset
11:43 Tulips and Pumpkins, a story for the fall
16:04 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
---
Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the second day of November 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Just a quick reminder to visit our website at willag.org, where today you’ll find a way to register for the upcoming FarmDoc Illinois Farm Economics Summits to take place in the month of December in Mount Vernon, the Springfield area at Sherman, as well as in Peoria and DeKalb. You can do that right now. Now, coming up on our program today, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Ed Usset, agricultural economist from the University of Minnesota. We’ll hear about a couple of fall-related specialty crops, and then we’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast. Mark Russo will be here from EverStream Analytics on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report.
announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: Well, we’ll start today with the crude oil rather than the grains and oil seeds because their prices have been tumbling after a report from Axios said that President Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that he wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time before resuming strikes on the country. That caused crude oil prices to tumble. They are currently trading down $7.70 at $96.42 a barrel for the West Texas Intermediate crude, and the Brent is at $104.92, down $8.52. That has caused soybeans to tumble lower. November contract at $12.04 and three-quarters, that’s 17 and a half lower on the settlement price. January at $12.16 and three-quarters, down 17 and a half, and March beans at $12.26 and a half, down 17 and a quarter. Bean meal off $5, and the bean oil 82 cents lower. December soft red winter wheat at $4.48 and a quarter, up a half. That’s corn, rather. March at $4.62, a penny higher, and the May futures at $4.70 and three-quarters for the corn, up a penny and three-quarters on this Monday afternoon.
02:10 Commodity Markets Discussion with Ed Usset
Todd Gleason: Ed Usset, agricultural economist with Extension at the University of Minnesota, now joins us. Hi, Ed, thanks for being with us again. I appreciate it. Tough day to talk about the marketplace, though they have had a lot going on all fall long. We haven’t talked for a month, what have you been watching?
Ed Usset: Well, I’m just watching the market like everyone else. You know, I had this thought the other day, we’ve been talking about diesel prices for six, eight weeks. You know, they spiked and just at the wrong time. And Todd, four to six weeks ago, a month, a month and a half ago, I’m getting questions from the press about high diesel prices and how much effect this will have. And my comment was, yeah, it’s a problem, but cash prices for soybeans and for corn are at three-year highs, and that’s going to cover a lot of ills, right? Well, I get that question today, and yes, diesel prices are high, but we’re no longer at three-year highs. Now, the soybean price in the grand scheme of things, even though they’re down a dollar from their highs, I mean it’s still a pretty good cash price for soybeans. But corn, oh my goodness, we’ve done a round trip right back to our August lows essentially, and this story of high corn prices will cover that diesel is in the rearview mirror now. It’s been a tough two months. Tougher for soybeans, tougher for corn. I’ve got corn prices down 15, 16% from their early September highs. That’s a big move. Even though it’s harvest, that’s a big move. We don’t find a lot of years like that. Doggone spring wheat, and I know Todd that you and your listeners don’t like talking about hard red spring wheat, but I can’t help but look at it, and it made life-of-contract lows last week. Life-of-contract lows, after topping and getting close to $8 a bushel just eight weeks ago. It’s been a rough two months.
Todd Gleason: So, a rough two months. Is there recovery in this marketplace? Why the push? Was it all just oil-related from July and the Strait of Hormuz and what was happening with Russia and Ukraine? Much like a drought kind of zips up, people figure out what’s going on, and the market addresses the issues—meaning it moves things around and rejiggers what it needs for demand in some form—and now we’re on the backside going down, or is there recovery in this market that can happen?
Ed Usset: Well, I’m looking at all those issues. I think soybeans are holding up the best. Even though they’re down a dollar, they’re holding up on a relative basis, they’re holding up the best because demand is good, and strong demand will trump big supply. And so demand is holding up good in the world of soybeans. Not so much in corn, not so much in wheat. And you asked a good question, where to from here, and I’m looking at that. I’m looking at years similar to this year. I found five or six other years in the last four decades where we had a really big sell-off into harvest, and you know, Todd, your listeners are going to tell me to tell my history numbers to shut up because it doesn’t look good as we look forward. Those years where we collapsed like this, not a real rosy future. Yeah, a little bit of a bounce, if you want to think about how high it could get out in the next six, eight months, but these are not our best years. None of those years were years where, you know, the May or the July contract was up a buck or two bucks. Recovery, modest at best.
Todd Gleason: Well, let’s talk about recovery in soybeans first. I’m thinking that the USDA has the season’s average cash price, and I’ll check this for sure, but I believe it is at $12 now. Can we manage that?
Ed Usset: Well, like I say, I feel best about soybeans because strong demand is there. You know, we’ve got China back in the market. We’ve got our cross our fingers and hope they go for the full 25 million metric tons. They’re on their way. The crush demand is good and growing, and that’s going to help that soybean market. I wish we had a similar story in corn and wheat.
Todd Gleason: So for corn, the season’s average cash price by USDA in their October WASDE was $4.70. Boy, right now that feels strong, doesn’t it?
Ed Usset: Yes, it feels strong, and I don’t know if we’re going to get that. I don’t know if we’re going to get that. I just am almost borderline depressed, Todd, having looked at some of this history, and I’m like, come on, what are your years that have a good recovery, you know, after this big harvest collapse? And I’m not finding it. Now, this sort of analysis is imperfect at best, every year is different, but we need demand to show up stronger in the corn and wheat balance sheets to make them move. By the way, there was an interesting announcement last week that there is a new ethanol plant being built, a greenfield brand new plant in western North Dakota. And Todd, I don’t know how far back we have to go to find a new greenfield ethanol plant being built in this country. Maybe it might be 10, 15 years.
Todd Gleason: Western North Dakota is way out there too, they would have to draw from quite a long distance.
Ed Usset: Yeah, it is. It surprises me a bit too, but the corn belt’s been moving west and north for a couple of decades. Somebody sees an opportunity out there. But it is the first, you know, we’ve had announcements of new crush plants going for three or four years, four or five years now, but this is the first new greenfield ethanol plant, and it’s not going to open for a couple of years, but I think it’s the first one in 10 or 15 years.
Todd Gleason: Is it co-located with the oil processing plant?
Ed Usset: Good question. That is servicing, and I’m going to guess it would service not renewable diesel, but SAF, with ethanol to jet fuel, but I don’t know whether that’d be the case or not.
Todd Gleason: I did not see that in the announcement. I’d have to, it’s in Glen Ullin, North Dakota, and that’s not the right place. But it could be close.
Ed Usset: It could be. I don’t think so though, I think that would have been part of the announcement had it been tied into another facility like that.
Todd Gleason: Well, we will have to look and see why that’s the case. But first, export market for corn, will it be stimulated by the lower prices?
Ed Usset: Well, you gotta hope so. You gotta hope so. And it’s running behind last year, but last year was an extraordinary year. We’ve got to pick it up here in the next couple of months, or we’ve got issues. That crop year average price put out by USDA is going to look lofty if we don’t start turning it around.
Todd Gleason: Is wheat the leader in this process in your opinion?
Ed Usset: Wheat the leader? We don’t want wheat to be the leader. I know that, but is it for you? No. Wheat is not the leader, wheat is just an incredible disappointment.
Todd Gleason: Which is the leader in that case? Because it does make a difference whether it’s corn or soybeans.
Ed Usset: Yeah, I’m hearing stirs of a debate that somehow the soybean market is holding up too strong and it too must collapse to follow corn and wheat. And I’m like, I don’t necessarily think that, because soybeans has demand. It has a demand story to talk about, and that’s a big help. That’s a big positive.
Todd Gleason: Local crush in the United States, domestic usage seems to be the driving force there. We’ll see how that turns out. Thank you much. We’ll talk with you again next month.
Ed Usset: Okay sir. Take care.
Todd Gleason: You too. That is Ed Usset. He is an agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota.
11:43 Tulips and Pumpkins, a story for the fall
Todd Gleason: Up next, a couple of fall-related stories. Did you know that in the post-World War II era, the United States created the first-ever international pre-clearance program? The model entails mitigating pest risk in the country of origin rather than at US ports of entry, and that has had some real economic benefits, as Matt Rhoads from APHIS or the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service explains.
Matt Rhoads: This in turn reduces handling costs and holds at the ports. It moves commodities faster through the ports, which results in direct savings that importers can reinvest in growth, logistics, and product diversification.
Todd Gleason: Rhoads says these pre-clearance partnerships ensure secure supply chains, predictable trade relations, and science-based international standards. He also says they help ensure that the products entering the United States meet the highest levels of quality and safety, and they allow US consumers and growers to benefit from a healthy, diverse, and resilient agricultural system. Now, during the 75th anniversary of the pre-clearance program, he pointed to the collaboration with the Netherlands through the Dutch flower bulbs and perennials pre-clearance program as an example.
Matt Rhoads: The Dutch flower bulbs and perennials pre-clearance program remains the oldest program of its kind in the world. It continues to set the standard for international cooperation in safeguarding and facilitating trade. That is accomplished by having USDA APHIS personnel inspect Dutch tulip bulbs in the Netherlands for pests and disease risk prior to shipment to the United States. This oldest pre-clearance framework set the stage for dozens of other similar programs around the globe, which Matt Rhoads from USDA APHIS says includes many benefits. The pre-clearance inspection protocol moves agricultural products faster. It saves businesses on both sides of the trade money, and each can reinvest that money into other aspects of their operations.
Todd Gleason: Now, here’s another specialty crop story for the fall. Although this one is from right here in the good ol’ US of A, the state of Illinois, the Peoria area, and this campus. Rod Bain has more.
Rod Bain: Now, if one state could claim a pumpkin obsession, that would be Illinois. Mohammad Babadoost of University of Illinois Extension explains why.
Mohammad Babadoost: Illinois is the leading state in pumpkin production. We do have roughly 25,000 acres of pumpkins every year. A little more than half of that are for processing pumpkins, canned pumpkin.
Rod Bain: That is because at least over 70% of US pumpkins meant for processing are grown in the Illini state. A phytophthora blight outbreak nearly devastated the Illinois pumpkin industry in 1998. Since then…
Mohammad Babadoost: We increased the production from about 6,000 to over 16,000 acres. And right now we are pretty safe. Pumpkins are very good this year.
Rod Bain: I’m Rod Bain reporting for the US Department of Agriculture in Washington, DC.
Todd Gleason: FYI, Illinois harvests more than twice as many pumpkin acres as the next five states combined. That according to USDA in 2022. The next closest state, Indiana, our neighbor, grew just over 161 million pounds of pumpkins. Most of the processing pumpkins, that 16 to 17,000 acres worth in the state of Illinois, are grown near Peoria. Those are processed over about a 100-day period in the fall at either the Nestle Libby plant in Morton or the Seneca Foods plant in Princeville. The village of Morton, by the way, is known as the pumpkin capital of the world. The vast majority of the pumpkin pie filling on the store shelves around the nation, something like 85 to 90%, is processed in this state. Most of that comes from Morton. The Princeville plant processes pumpkins primarily for the food service industry.
16:04 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention to the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Here to help us out today is Mark Russo. He’s at EverStream Analytics. Hi Mark, thanks for being with us. Hope you had a great holiday weekend for Halloween.
Mark Russo: Yeah, thanks. Thanks, Todd. I certainly did, and gave a lot of candy out there this weekend.
Todd Gleason: Yeah, me too, that’s always a problem, but I’ll get over it eventually. So let’s turn our attention to the weather forecast. Our producers are still harvesting across the corn belt. Tell me what kind of conditions they will or won’t be able to work under this week.
Mark Russo: Yeah, well, the rains that started over the weekend, which were scattered in nature, are going to become more widespread across the Midwest and even down into the Delta here this week. So as a result, this is going to slow down fieldwork operations here and overall harvest activity for the next week. We don’t see things bogging down or seeing large areas of very heavy rainfall, but certainly a slower week this week compared to last week. Now, looking out later into the second week of November, it does look like that rain shower activity will become more scattered and that looks to then improve the situation here next week compared to this week.
Todd Gleason: There are a couple of things particularly in the primary corn belt that need to happen, or that producers are hopeful will happen. They’d like the soil temperatures at the four-inch level bare to drop under 50 degrees, so those places in, for instance, the northern two-thirds of Illinois can run anhydrous tanks across the field and get some of their nitrogen on for the fall. Do you see cooling happening?
Mark Russo: Um, some cooling, Todd, but we don’t see a pattern that would consistently force those types of favorable soil temperatures here coming up over the next few weeks. There is going to be this period, albeit brief, of more seasonal temperatures, highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s generally coming up here over the upcoming weekend and early next week, but then temperatures quickly climb back to warmer than normal levels after that.
Todd Gleason: Okay. Now turn your attention to the plain states. I know you’ve been watching them and the hard red winter wheat growing regions.
Mark Russo: Yeah, they have been active. They look to stay active, which continues to improve soil moisture across the hard red belt. It’s also causing some delays in planting, but a much more favorable pattern here in terms of recharging soil moisture. And on top of the favorable soil moisture and overall planting conditions, actually the warm temperatures that have been and will continue to be in place will promote rapid germination, emergence, and early growth of the newly planted crops.
Todd Gleason: We’ll get to South America in just a moment, but I do want to go east across the pond. Start in Europe. Tell me about conditions there. Have they recovered from the drought in those areas that were really hot and short of rainfall precipitation over the last several months?
Mark Russo: Yeah, not really. In fact, soil moisture for late October and early November for Europe as a whole is at its lowest levels in the past 20 years. And we saw that a lot this past summer. And while there has been at least more rain relative to what happened in the summer, that has not solved things across much of Europe. And we see this drier pattern continuing over the next few weeks. With the exception of areas near the Mediterranean, that’s where activity will be more frequent and that region will be more unsettled. But for the largest winter crop areas such as France and Germany, we don’t see any significant turnaround in the pattern here coming up.
Todd Gleason: Again, before we get to South America, I wanted to turn your attention to a different vegetable oil, palm oil. What are your concerns for those growing regions, for instance, in Indonesia?
Mark Russo: Yeah, we have significant concerns in Indonesia. In fact, by our metrics here, their palm conditions are the lowest for this time of year compared to any year in the past 10 years. And that has been driven by this extreme dryness and heat that developed from late July onward and continues to impact the region. And we see that persisting here throughout much of November and likely beyond, again driven by the super El Nino, which typically produces well below normal rainfall across the core palm producing areas of Indonesia.
Todd Gleason: Speaking of super El Nino, how is it impacting the growing regions in Brazil and Argentina related to soybeans?
Mark Russo: Yeah, right now across South America, it has not resulted in any kind of big concerning patterns. But, you know, certainly some items to watch. Again, typically with El Ninos you tend to have a wetter bias south in areas such as Argentina and Southern Brazil. And we have seen some significant wetness across Southern Brazil as a wet pattern has been persistent here over the past couple of months. It hasn’t really caused any kind of significant delays in planting, but some localized areas have experienced some flooding. Now, up north across Center-West Brazil, El Ninos can help to produce below normal rainfall at times, and there have been some drier weeks across Center-West Brazil. But again, they had an early start to the rainy season back in September that significantly boosted soil moisture reserves. And so those drier weeks of late have actually helped for rapid planting of soybeans. And so, coming up here, we see an increase in rain across Center-West Brazil, not really this week but next week. So it looks to keep them in pretty good shape here with no dryness concerns of note as we look out through the next several weeks.
Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Mark. I appreciate it.
Mark Russo: You’re welcome. Thanks for having me, Todd.
Todd Gleason: That’s Mark Russo. He is with EverStream Analytics and joined us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. Do visit our website, willag.org, where today you can register for the December Illinois Farm Economics Summits. This year there are four of them. We’ll begin in Mount Vernon in Southern Illinois, make our way to Sherman near Springfield in Central Illinois, Peoria, and then we’ll wrap up in DeKalb. That’s all in December. You can find the details online again at willag.org. You have a great afternoon. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.