Episode Number
10473
Episode Show Notes / Description
The November 3, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report features analysis from Naomi Blohm on recent large U.S. corn export sales to Mexico, which historical data suggests could signal a market bottom and precede upcoming price rallies. Adam Wattson then details his Champaign County farm's transition to strip-till agriculture, explaining how the practice has reduced his equipment costs, altered his nitrogen management to liquid-only applications, and maintained yield consistency. Following this, Don Day provides a weather outlook, noting that a remarkably quiet and mild Pacific air mass across the U.S. will keep soil temperatures too warm for immediate fall anhydrous ammonia applications, while northern South America faces stormy conditions. The program concludes with a memorial tribute to Dale Orville Helms, a distinguished University of Illinois animal sciences alumnus.
01:36 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing
09:19 Strip Till Transition, a farmer conversation
18:57 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather
21:38 Remembering Dale Helms
01:36 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing
09:19 Strip Till Transition, a farmer conversation
18:57 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather
21:38 Remembering Dale Helms
Transcript
cmr261103
The November 3, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report features analysis from Naomi Blohm on recent large U.S. corn export sales to Mexico, which historical data suggests could signal a market bottom and precede upcoming price rallies. Adam Wattson then details his Champaign County farm's transition to strip-till agriculture, explaining how the practice has reduced his equipment costs, altered his nitrogen management to liquid-only applications, and maintained yield consistency. Following this, Don Day provides a weather outlook, noting that a remarkably quiet and mild Pacific air mass across the U.S. will keep soil temperatures too warm for immediate fall anhydrous ammonia applications, while northern South America faces stormy conditions. The program concludes with a memorial tribute to Dale Orville Helms, a distinguished University of Illinois animal sciences alumnus.
01:36 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing
09:19 Strip Till Transition, a farmer conversation
18:57 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather
21:38 Remembering Dale Helms
---
Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the third day of November 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Blohm. She’s at totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin. We’ll discuss strip-till and how a farmer here in Champaign County made that transition. I rode for a couple of hours with him in the combine a couple of weeks ago. It’s an interesting conversation you’ll want to hear. And then we’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast as we close out our time together. Don Day will be here from Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming on this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media, where on our website right now at willag.org, you can register for the Illinois Farm Economic Summits. This is the IFES series put on by the farmdoc team. I’ll be traveling with them in December in Mount Vernon, Sherman, Peoria, and DeKalb. We hope to see you at one of those events for the IFES series, but you’ll need to register. Do so right now today at willag.org.
Announce: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. December corn for the day, five and three-quarters lower, settled at 442 and a half. The March at 456 and a quarter, down five and three-quarters. January beans, $12.14, two and three-quarters lower, and the March contract at $12.20 and three-quarters of a cent. That finished down five and three-quarters of a cent.
Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm from totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin now joins us. Hi, Naomi. Thanks for being with us again on a Tuesday.
Naomi Blohm: Yeah, thank you for having me.
01:36 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing
Todd Gleason: Hey, so I hear that you have been doing a little research. I know you do that all of the time, but some interesting things that you’ve been thinking through and digging up as it relates to exports and otherwise. Can you tell me about it?
Naomi Blohm: Yeah, absolutely. So what happened was when Mexico yesterday had that huge flash sale announcement of 1.729 million metric tons for one day of history. And then it was followed up today by another 300,000 or so metric tons. And that was a huge export sale, and then the market ignored it. And I got a little frustrated about that. So I’m like, well, this doesn’t make any sense. So I went back and looked, and Mexico’s big purchase yesterday is definitely a top 10 sale.
And so actually, looking back, I got 11 years of data. And I will send you this information, Todd, and if you want to post it to your viewers, you’re more than welcome to do that. It just showed, though, that of these top 10 sales, the first largest sale we had was back in 1991 to the USSR, nearly 4 million metric tons. But then after that, in 2021, China brought over 2 million metric tons. And then in the number third spot, the USSR back in 1989. But the other sales after that are primarily since 2020.
So the big summary of this is that out of eight of the past 11 large US corn export sales—big ones, we’re talking about these big, big, big ones—of the eight of them, six of them occurred near lower price values, and then the price of corn rallied after that. So, of course, in 2020, China had two big sales, and then after that the corn market rallied a dollar. And then in early 2021, China came in and bought more corn, and then that pushed the market price, you know, $2 higher. In late 2021, 2022, Mexico came in and bought at harvest, and then the market rallied big after that.
And now here we are, Mexico coming in and buying on a price low, they’re buying value. And I can’t help but wonder if they were buying not only on value but to get ahead of El Niño weather patterns which still could occur in the coming months. And it’s significant because the US is the biggest exporter in the world of corn, but behind that is Brazil and Argentina. And so if Brazil and Argentina have any weather issues at all to where their corn crop is viewed in jeopardy, the corn market has every reason to rally. And kudos to Mexico for recognizing that and coming in and buying on sale. But again, history now suggests that when China or Mexico comes in and buys in the following couple of months, the corn price has a significant rally.
Todd Gleason: Let me follow up with you on this just a little bit. I was thinking through it as you were discussing this with me. I’m wondering if the number of animals, beef animals in particular in Mexico, maybe poultry, are up, and that also might be one of the reasons that they’re looking to import corn.
Naomi Blohm: Oh Todd, you’re right. You’re totally right. So not only is it the weather issue potential coming here, they’ve also been on the drier side like you said with Mexico, but they still have a lot of livestock to feed. Just because the border is open with the United States and Mexico for cattle, doesn’t mean all those cattle are coming across all the time anytime soon, so they still have to feed them in Mexico. So this is I think significant news the market for whatever reason is choosing to ignore it, it’s probably based on midterms, but you cannot ignore it anymore. I think it’s a big deal and again I’m going to show you these charts, I’ll email them to you after our conversation, and it’s pretty interesting the proof behind it and then how prices oftentimes rally afterwards.
The only two times that China and Mexico each bought at a high price was going into a summer month and they were concerned that maybe, like, the United States would have a bigger drought or something. So they bought high twice, but understandable because if it would have been a tricky summer in the United States, prices could have gone higher. But in general, they do a fabulous job, both countries, of buying on sale. Hey, maybe China is going to listen to this and they’re going to say, we need to get on board here too. If Mexico is buying, we should be buying as well just to secure additional product, because China as you know does need to import a little amount of corn every year.
Todd Gleason: Okay, so a positive story for corn, can you make a positive story for soybeans?
Naomi Blohm: Yeah, so what I loved about soybeans today, they went down very, very cautiously, tiptoed all the way down to the one-year uptrend line. So just shy of the 200-day moving average, if beans wanted to be a little smart or tricky they could maybe go 10 cents lower, touch that 200-day moving average. But as long as they close back above this one-year uptrend line, to me it feels like we’re building a low. I really feel like corn and beans and wheat are building a low. I know that people are really depressed about prices, but when you look at daily charts, RSI, relative strength index values on corn and soybeans and wheat are all extremely oversold with numbers in the 20s. And all we’re doing is waiting for some sort of technical bottoming signal, and I really strongly feel that once we get the elections out of the way, that the grain markets are going to find their harvest low here soon. And then we’re going to go back to watching the weather in South America. We’re going to get back on track to watching the daily, weekly, monthly exports numbers, and to your point, keeping an eye on the demand for the domestic needs with crush values, ethanol values, for both corn, soybeans. The future actually, because the demand is strong, I’m a little bit more optimistic especially with prices being so cheap right now.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much, and I sure look forward to talking with you again next week.
Naomi Blohm: Thank you.
Todd Gleason: That’s Naomi Blohm. She is with totalfarmmarketing.com. You’re listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media on this Tuesday afternoon. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason. Do visit our website, the address is willag.org, and there you can find a way today to sign up and register for the Illinois Farm Economic Summits. These are put on by the ag econ team. I will be traveling the state in the month of December. You’ll want to catch up with us in Mount Vernon or Sherman or East Peoria or DeKalb, but you need to sign up today. Do that right now at willag.org.
One of the people that will be along with us, by the way, is Gary Schnitkey. He’s related to this next little interview that I did a couple of weeks ago with a farmer. I spent a couple of hours riding in the combine with a strip-tiller. That’s one of those things that Gary Schnitkey through the PCM or Precision Conservation Management work he does shows is the most economical way to row crop farm along with no-till. You’ll want to hear this conversation. It’s a really good one.
09:19 Strip Till Transition, a farmer conversation
Todd Gleason: Adam Wattson now joins us. He’s with Watson Family Farms here in Champaign County, Illinois. Adam, thank you for being part of the program. Tell me a little bit about Watson Farms, please.
Adam Wattson: So we farm between Villa Grove and Philo is our main location, but farm in southern Champaign County, northern Douglas, and grow seed beans and we also grow food-grade corn for Frito-Lay and then also have commercial grains as well.
Todd Gleason: Tell me, what it was that caused you to consider reduced tillage?
Adam Wattson: Cost, more than anything. I’ve been questioning for many years before we ever started this, but I believe it was 2021 when we started strip-tilling. But I always thought we were tilling ahead of the incorrect crop. We were out chisel plowing corn stalks to plant beans into, and it was just really to manage residue. I never really saw that there was a gain for the tilling deep ahead of the soybeans. We believed to let the bean stubble sit, and we would work it with a field cultivator the next spring, and I always felt like it just needed to be deep tilled.
Todd Gleason: What does reduced tillage look like on your farm today compared to maybe 5 or 10 years ago?
Adam Wattson: Reduced tillage on our farm today is a combination of three things really. Strip-till, we strip-till ahead of all of our corn. I strip-till some of our soybeans. And then any corn stalks that we have that doesn’t get no-tilled, I do a light disking in the fall and then plant directly into that in the spring.
Todd Gleason: Tell me about the first season you did this. What were your biggest concerns?
Adam Wattson: The first season was almost really a disaster from one of the biggest concerns that I had, and it’s weather in the fall. It was a wet fall, and we got very few strips done. And I learned that year that it is key to have a strip-till bar that has the ability to use coulters in the spring.
Todd Gleason: Where did you learn from? How did you come across the idea that you should do this, and then how did you learn enough to do it?
Adam Wattson: It was a leap for sure, because it’s not a very popular practice in our area at all. But I noticed a few nearby neighbors that are doing it, and they’ve had great success with it. And so I continued to ask questions over the years about it to them, and it led me to finally making the jump to do it. But I would say the biggest reason I did it is because we had all the technology already in place with the GPS systems that we had, and that makes this process so much easier. It would be very difficult to do without GPS.
Todd Gleason: Tell me about the impacts you’ve seen on yield, the impacts you’ve seen on profitability—they may be diverging is my thought—and then what your equipment costs are like?
Adam Wattson: So yield, I haven’t seen things go backwards based off of trends on my farm. But I’m not doing the other style of tillage to compare it to anymore, because when I did it, I made the jump to be all in on this. And that was because of cost also. I didn’t feel that if you’re going to do this, you still keep all of the other tillage equipment around just in case. That was part of my whole strategy with it, is I wanted to commit to this wholly and reduce other equipment costs by not having it on our farm.
Todd Gleason: Did you downsize in tractors? Did you lose a tractor? What kind of equipment costs did you lose in the process?
Adam Wattson: I have the same equipment as far as tractors. The size of the tractors I never changed anything. It’s really, I eliminated a chisel plow and I eliminated a field cultivator and got a strip-till bar. And so when you put the strips in in the fall, your spring pass is already made. And so when I go out in the spring, I don’t need my tractor that does tillage anymore. So that reduction is actually big time in the spring because I don’t put any hours on my spring tillage tractor.
Todd Gleason: What lessons did you learn during this transition and/or advice might you give producers that are considering it?
Adam Wattson: I would go to the considering part. I would actually look into somebody nearby that does it already and have them do a custom application for a field to try to go through the process on your own farm. The lessons I’ve learned is still weather is in charge, and the system works best for me on my farm if I get the strips put in in the fall. And it takes a little bit of labor and equipment to do that, but if you set up for it, it becomes a pretty seamless system whenever you’re in season.
Todd Gleason: Why strip-till rather than no-till? Because I’m guessing you were thinking about both at the same time.
Adam Wattson: So no-till corn to me is a little bit more difficult. I do like to push the envelope on planting on the early side, and with strip-till the strip gets warmer than the higher residue areas around it. And so you get a better seed emergence with the warmer strip. That’s part of one of the biggest benefits in my opinion anyways, is that when you put the strip in in the fall, that strip is black, dark soil all throughout the whole winter and then coming into spring. And when you go out with a field cultivator, your field doesn’t get turned dark until you actually work the soil. So you actually can get in the field a little bit before compared to having a field cultivator.
Todd Gleason: How did your fertilizer applications change? They may have changed in when you’re putting it on, but I mean really, just how did they mechanically change if at all?
Adam Wattson: So I have gone to phosphorus only in the strip, and then my potash/potassium is broadcast ahead of the soybeans on the surface and then lightly disked in, or if it’s no-till it just lays there. But I have reduced my fertilizer rates. I believe I’m at a 30% reduction from when I started this. And part of it was just based off a gut, when I can concentrate the band of fertilizer in a zone, I’m able to reduce the amount. Time will tell long term if I’ve made the right decision with that, but soil tests are telling me that I’m still on the right track of doing that.
Todd Gleason: How do you manage nitrogen?
Adam Wattson: Nitrogen on my farm is all liquid, 32%. That is one of the challenges in my opinion with strip-till is nitrogen management. In order for me to have success with strip-tilling, I have to start strip-tilling in late September, early October. And because of that, anhydrous is not an option. So I have chosen to manage my nitrogen as a liquid system only. I do a weed and feed, I do 2x2 on the planter, and then I Y-drop the remainder of my nitrogen with my Hagie.
Todd Gleason: Did you turn down the total pounds of nitrogen because you’re closer to in-season?
Adam Wattson: Yes, my nitrogen rates have reduced because of the use efficiency with multiple applications and then the banding portion of it as well. Nitrogen is just like that every year, you always wonder, you never figure it out until the end of the year if you did that correctly. But I have reduced my nitrogen by about 10% from before I started this program. I’m ready to dump.
Todd Gleason: Adam Wattson is a farmer from Champaign County, Illinois. Thanks to him for allowing me to ride with him for a couple of hours a couple of weeks ago. I appreciate that. It’s actually for the Illinois Nutrient Loss Reduction podcast, something that you can find and listen to anytime you’d like at willag.org. Now up next, let’s turn our attention to the weather forecast. Don Day is here. He is with Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming.
18:57 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather
Todd Gleason: Hello, Don. Thanks for being with us again today.
Don Day: Thanks for having me.
Todd Gleason: Let’s start with the near-term weather forecast. Looks like there’s a little rainfall even today across parts of the Corn Belt and spreading to the east. Can you tell me about it?
Don Day: Yeah, a pretty vigorous system that came out of the Rockies. This is the same part of the system that brought the flooding to Arizona and parts of the southwestern United States this past weekend. Now it’s not nearly as intense, but as we have seen here, it’s producing some pretty good rainfall and it will here for another day or so. But as we make our way beyond this system, as we get to the weekend and as we get into early next week, a remarkably quiet weather pattern is going to develop for the Lower 48. There’s going to be some wetness in the Pacific Northwest. There’s going to be a little bit of shower and thunderstorm activity in the Gulf Coast and Southern Plains. But a rather unremarkable stretch of weather after this current system moves out.
Todd Gleason: Sounds like it’ll be good for fall fieldwork, harvest, tillage, maybe anhydrous ammonia application for some of the northern regions, but only if we get down to 50 degrees soil temperatures at the four-inch level. I’m not certain that the temperatures are going to allow that to happen very soon. What do you think?
Don Day: Yeah, no. I mean, the one reason why it’s going to be so quiet next week is that we’re going to see Pacific air flood the zone. We’re going to have a really big storm out in the eastern Pacific, bringing stormy weather to British Columbia and Alaska. And when we see that, we tend to see a mild air mass across the U.S. with really no opportunity for Canadian air to come in. So what this is going to mean is that temperatures are going to be continually warmer than average for probably a good 7 to 10 days.
Todd Gleason: Well, thank you much. We appreciate that when we get the time. But we would like to have a little cooler weather to get a bit more fieldwork done. Turn your attention to South America, talk about some of the areas you’ve been watching closely there.
Don Day: Well, it’s going to be pretty stormy here over the next 7 to 10 days over the northern half of the continent. We’re seeing a shift northward of the better rain, kind of out of Argentina and southern Brazil, more towards the central and northern parts of Brazil as you get into Peru and into the northwest countries of South America. While there still will be rain down in Argentina, amounts are going to be less.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. I appreciate it.
Don Day: Thank you.
21:38 Remembering Dale Helms
Todd Gleason: Don Day is with Day Weather. He is in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Now, before I let you go for the afternoon, you know on occasion I make note of the passing of folks that are important either in my life or to the university. Over the weekend, Dale Orville Helms, who is 89, from Richmond Heights, Missouri passed away. He is formerly of Belleville, Illinois. Dale was raised there on his family farm on Old Freeburg Road, and he loved his Angus cattle herd. He showed at many county and state fairs in his youth, and his love for agriculture led him to this university, the University of Illinois, where he studied animal sciences. While at Illinois, he was a member of the Alpha Gamma Rho fraternity, where he held offices and developed lifelong friendships. He also was on the University of Illinois livestock judging team that won first place at the International Livestock Show in 1958. Dale graduated with highest academic honors from the University of Illinois as a Bronze Tablet, which is awarded to the top 3% of the graduating class. He later served on the University of Illinois Ag Alumni Board and worked to establish the initial donors for the Jonathan Baldwin Turner scholarships. And on that personal note, Dale was one of the folks that traveled with us on the WILL Ag follow the corn bus trip to New Orleans in 2012. Today we remember Dale Orville Helms. I’m University of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.
The November 3, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report features analysis from Naomi Blohm on recent large U.S. corn export sales to Mexico, which historical data suggests could signal a market bottom and precede upcoming price rallies. Adam Wattson then details his Champaign County farm's transition to strip-till agriculture, explaining how the practice has reduced his equipment costs, altered his nitrogen management to liquid-only applications, and maintained yield consistency. Following this, Don Day provides a weather outlook, noting that a remarkably quiet and mild Pacific air mass across the U.S. will keep soil temperatures too warm for immediate fall anhydrous ammonia applications, while northern South America faces stormy conditions. The program concludes with a memorial tribute to Dale Orville Helms, a distinguished University of Illinois animal sciences alumnus.
01:36 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing
09:19 Strip Till Transition, a farmer conversation
18:57 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather
21:38 Remembering Dale Helms
---
Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the third day of November 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Blohm. She’s at totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin. We’ll discuss strip-till and how a farmer here in Champaign County made that transition. I rode for a couple of hours with him in the combine a couple of weeks ago. It’s an interesting conversation you’ll want to hear. And then we’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast as we close out our time together. Don Day will be here from Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming on this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media, where on our website right now at willag.org, you can register for the Illinois Farm Economic Summits. This is the IFES series put on by the farmdoc team. I’ll be traveling with them in December in Mount Vernon, Sherman, Peoria, and DeKalb. We hope to see you at one of those events for the IFES series, but you’ll need to register. Do so right now today at willag.org.
Announce: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. December corn for the day, five and three-quarters lower, settled at 442 and a half. The March at 456 and a quarter, down five and three-quarters. January beans, $12.14, two and three-quarters lower, and the March contract at $12.20 and three-quarters of a cent. That finished down five and three-quarters of a cent.
Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm from totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin now joins us. Hi, Naomi. Thanks for being with us again on a Tuesday.
Naomi Blohm: Yeah, thank you for having me.
01:36 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing
Todd Gleason: Hey, so I hear that you have been doing a little research. I know you do that all of the time, but some interesting things that you’ve been thinking through and digging up as it relates to exports and otherwise. Can you tell me about it?
Naomi Blohm: Yeah, absolutely. So what happened was when Mexico yesterday had that huge flash sale announcement of 1.729 million metric tons for one day of history. And then it was followed up today by another 300,000 or so metric tons. And that was a huge export sale, and then the market ignored it. And I got a little frustrated about that. So I’m like, well, this doesn’t make any sense. So I went back and looked, and Mexico’s big purchase yesterday is definitely a top 10 sale.
And so actually, looking back, I got 11 years of data. And I will send you this information, Todd, and if you want to post it to your viewers, you’re more than welcome to do that. It just showed, though, that of these top 10 sales, the first largest sale we had was back in 1991 to the USSR, nearly 4 million metric tons. But then after that, in 2021, China brought over 2 million metric tons. And then in the number third spot, the USSR back in 1989. But the other sales after that are primarily since 2020.
So the big summary of this is that out of eight of the past 11 large US corn export sales—big ones, we’re talking about these big, big, big ones—of the eight of them, six of them occurred near lower price values, and then the price of corn rallied after that. So, of course, in 2020, China had two big sales, and then after that the corn market rallied a dollar. And then in early 2021, China came in and bought more corn, and then that pushed the market price, you know, $2 higher. In late 2021, 2022, Mexico came in and bought at harvest, and then the market rallied big after that.
And now here we are, Mexico coming in and buying on a price low, they’re buying value. And I can’t help but wonder if they were buying not only on value but to get ahead of El Niño weather patterns which still could occur in the coming months. And it’s significant because the US is the biggest exporter in the world of corn, but behind that is Brazil and Argentina. And so if Brazil and Argentina have any weather issues at all to where their corn crop is viewed in jeopardy, the corn market has every reason to rally. And kudos to Mexico for recognizing that and coming in and buying on sale. But again, history now suggests that when China or Mexico comes in and buys in the following couple of months, the corn price has a significant rally.
Todd Gleason: Let me follow up with you on this just a little bit. I was thinking through it as you were discussing this with me. I’m wondering if the number of animals, beef animals in particular in Mexico, maybe poultry, are up, and that also might be one of the reasons that they’re looking to import corn.
Naomi Blohm: Oh Todd, you’re right. You’re totally right. So not only is it the weather issue potential coming here, they’ve also been on the drier side like you said with Mexico, but they still have a lot of livestock to feed. Just because the border is open with the United States and Mexico for cattle, doesn’t mean all those cattle are coming across all the time anytime soon, so they still have to feed them in Mexico. So this is I think significant news the market for whatever reason is choosing to ignore it, it’s probably based on midterms, but you cannot ignore it anymore. I think it’s a big deal and again I’m going to show you these charts, I’ll email them to you after our conversation, and it’s pretty interesting the proof behind it and then how prices oftentimes rally afterwards.
The only two times that China and Mexico each bought at a high price was going into a summer month and they were concerned that maybe, like, the United States would have a bigger drought or something. So they bought high twice, but understandable because if it would have been a tricky summer in the United States, prices could have gone higher. But in general, they do a fabulous job, both countries, of buying on sale. Hey, maybe China is going to listen to this and they’re going to say, we need to get on board here too. If Mexico is buying, we should be buying as well just to secure additional product, because China as you know does need to import a little amount of corn every year.
Todd Gleason: Okay, so a positive story for corn, can you make a positive story for soybeans?
Naomi Blohm: Yeah, so what I loved about soybeans today, they went down very, very cautiously, tiptoed all the way down to the one-year uptrend line. So just shy of the 200-day moving average, if beans wanted to be a little smart or tricky they could maybe go 10 cents lower, touch that 200-day moving average. But as long as they close back above this one-year uptrend line, to me it feels like we’re building a low. I really feel like corn and beans and wheat are building a low. I know that people are really depressed about prices, but when you look at daily charts, RSI, relative strength index values on corn and soybeans and wheat are all extremely oversold with numbers in the 20s. And all we’re doing is waiting for some sort of technical bottoming signal, and I really strongly feel that once we get the elections out of the way, that the grain markets are going to find their harvest low here soon. And then we’re going to go back to watching the weather in South America. We’re going to get back on track to watching the daily, weekly, monthly exports numbers, and to your point, keeping an eye on the demand for the domestic needs with crush values, ethanol values, for both corn, soybeans. The future actually, because the demand is strong, I’m a little bit more optimistic especially with prices being so cheap right now.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much, and I sure look forward to talking with you again next week.
Naomi Blohm: Thank you.
Todd Gleason: That’s Naomi Blohm. She is with totalfarmmarketing.com. You’re listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media on this Tuesday afternoon. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason. Do visit our website, the address is willag.org, and there you can find a way today to sign up and register for the Illinois Farm Economic Summits. These are put on by the ag econ team. I will be traveling the state in the month of December. You’ll want to catch up with us in Mount Vernon or Sherman or East Peoria or DeKalb, but you need to sign up today. Do that right now at willag.org.
One of the people that will be along with us, by the way, is Gary Schnitkey. He’s related to this next little interview that I did a couple of weeks ago with a farmer. I spent a couple of hours riding in the combine with a strip-tiller. That’s one of those things that Gary Schnitkey through the PCM or Precision Conservation Management work he does shows is the most economical way to row crop farm along with no-till. You’ll want to hear this conversation. It’s a really good one.
09:19 Strip Till Transition, a farmer conversation
Todd Gleason: Adam Wattson now joins us. He’s with Watson Family Farms here in Champaign County, Illinois. Adam, thank you for being part of the program. Tell me a little bit about Watson Farms, please.
Adam Wattson: So we farm between Villa Grove and Philo is our main location, but farm in southern Champaign County, northern Douglas, and grow seed beans and we also grow food-grade corn for Frito-Lay and then also have commercial grains as well.
Todd Gleason: Tell me, what it was that caused you to consider reduced tillage?
Adam Wattson: Cost, more than anything. I’ve been questioning for many years before we ever started this, but I believe it was 2021 when we started strip-tilling. But I always thought we were tilling ahead of the incorrect crop. We were out chisel plowing corn stalks to plant beans into, and it was just really to manage residue. I never really saw that there was a gain for the tilling deep ahead of the soybeans. We believed to let the bean stubble sit, and we would work it with a field cultivator the next spring, and I always felt like it just needed to be deep tilled.
Todd Gleason: What does reduced tillage look like on your farm today compared to maybe 5 or 10 years ago?
Adam Wattson: Reduced tillage on our farm today is a combination of three things really. Strip-till, we strip-till ahead of all of our corn. I strip-till some of our soybeans. And then any corn stalks that we have that doesn’t get no-tilled, I do a light disking in the fall and then plant directly into that in the spring.
Todd Gleason: Tell me about the first season you did this. What were your biggest concerns?
Adam Wattson: The first season was almost really a disaster from one of the biggest concerns that I had, and it’s weather in the fall. It was a wet fall, and we got very few strips done. And I learned that year that it is key to have a strip-till bar that has the ability to use coulters in the spring.
Todd Gleason: Where did you learn from? How did you come across the idea that you should do this, and then how did you learn enough to do it?
Adam Wattson: It was a leap for sure, because it’s not a very popular practice in our area at all. But I noticed a few nearby neighbors that are doing it, and they’ve had great success with it. And so I continued to ask questions over the years about it to them, and it led me to finally making the jump to do it. But I would say the biggest reason I did it is because we had all the technology already in place with the GPS systems that we had, and that makes this process so much easier. It would be very difficult to do without GPS.
Todd Gleason: Tell me about the impacts you’ve seen on yield, the impacts you’ve seen on profitability—they may be diverging is my thought—and then what your equipment costs are like?
Adam Wattson: So yield, I haven’t seen things go backwards based off of trends on my farm. But I’m not doing the other style of tillage to compare it to anymore, because when I did it, I made the jump to be all in on this. And that was because of cost also. I didn’t feel that if you’re going to do this, you still keep all of the other tillage equipment around just in case. That was part of my whole strategy with it, is I wanted to commit to this wholly and reduce other equipment costs by not having it on our farm.
Todd Gleason: Did you downsize in tractors? Did you lose a tractor? What kind of equipment costs did you lose in the process?
Adam Wattson: I have the same equipment as far as tractors. The size of the tractors I never changed anything. It’s really, I eliminated a chisel plow and I eliminated a field cultivator and got a strip-till bar. And so when you put the strips in in the fall, your spring pass is already made. And so when I go out in the spring, I don’t need my tractor that does tillage anymore. So that reduction is actually big time in the spring because I don’t put any hours on my spring tillage tractor.
Todd Gleason: What lessons did you learn during this transition and/or advice might you give producers that are considering it?
Adam Wattson: I would go to the considering part. I would actually look into somebody nearby that does it already and have them do a custom application for a field to try to go through the process on your own farm. The lessons I’ve learned is still weather is in charge, and the system works best for me on my farm if I get the strips put in in the fall. And it takes a little bit of labor and equipment to do that, but if you set up for it, it becomes a pretty seamless system whenever you’re in season.
Todd Gleason: Why strip-till rather than no-till? Because I’m guessing you were thinking about both at the same time.
Adam Wattson: So no-till corn to me is a little bit more difficult. I do like to push the envelope on planting on the early side, and with strip-till the strip gets warmer than the higher residue areas around it. And so you get a better seed emergence with the warmer strip. That’s part of one of the biggest benefits in my opinion anyways, is that when you put the strip in in the fall, that strip is black, dark soil all throughout the whole winter and then coming into spring. And when you go out with a field cultivator, your field doesn’t get turned dark until you actually work the soil. So you actually can get in the field a little bit before compared to having a field cultivator.
Todd Gleason: How did your fertilizer applications change? They may have changed in when you’re putting it on, but I mean really, just how did they mechanically change if at all?
Adam Wattson: So I have gone to phosphorus only in the strip, and then my potash/potassium is broadcast ahead of the soybeans on the surface and then lightly disked in, or if it’s no-till it just lays there. But I have reduced my fertilizer rates. I believe I’m at a 30% reduction from when I started this. And part of it was just based off a gut, when I can concentrate the band of fertilizer in a zone, I’m able to reduce the amount. Time will tell long term if I’ve made the right decision with that, but soil tests are telling me that I’m still on the right track of doing that.
Todd Gleason: How do you manage nitrogen?
Adam Wattson: Nitrogen on my farm is all liquid, 32%. That is one of the challenges in my opinion with strip-till is nitrogen management. In order for me to have success with strip-tilling, I have to start strip-tilling in late September, early October. And because of that, anhydrous is not an option. So I have chosen to manage my nitrogen as a liquid system only. I do a weed and feed, I do 2x2 on the planter, and then I Y-drop the remainder of my nitrogen with my Hagie.
Todd Gleason: Did you turn down the total pounds of nitrogen because you’re closer to in-season?
Adam Wattson: Yes, my nitrogen rates have reduced because of the use efficiency with multiple applications and then the banding portion of it as well. Nitrogen is just like that every year, you always wonder, you never figure it out until the end of the year if you did that correctly. But I have reduced my nitrogen by about 10% from before I started this program. I’m ready to dump.
Todd Gleason: Adam Wattson is a farmer from Champaign County, Illinois. Thanks to him for allowing me to ride with him for a couple of hours a couple of weeks ago. I appreciate that. It’s actually for the Illinois Nutrient Loss Reduction podcast, something that you can find and listen to anytime you’d like at willag.org. Now up next, let’s turn our attention to the weather forecast. Don Day is here. He is with Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming.
18:57 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather
Todd Gleason: Hello, Don. Thanks for being with us again today.
Don Day: Thanks for having me.
Todd Gleason: Let’s start with the near-term weather forecast. Looks like there’s a little rainfall even today across parts of the Corn Belt and spreading to the east. Can you tell me about it?
Don Day: Yeah, a pretty vigorous system that came out of the Rockies. This is the same part of the system that brought the flooding to Arizona and parts of the southwestern United States this past weekend. Now it’s not nearly as intense, but as we have seen here, it’s producing some pretty good rainfall and it will here for another day or so. But as we make our way beyond this system, as we get to the weekend and as we get into early next week, a remarkably quiet weather pattern is going to develop for the Lower 48. There’s going to be some wetness in the Pacific Northwest. There’s going to be a little bit of shower and thunderstorm activity in the Gulf Coast and Southern Plains. But a rather unremarkable stretch of weather after this current system moves out.
Todd Gleason: Sounds like it’ll be good for fall fieldwork, harvest, tillage, maybe anhydrous ammonia application for some of the northern regions, but only if we get down to 50 degrees soil temperatures at the four-inch level. I’m not certain that the temperatures are going to allow that to happen very soon. What do you think?
Don Day: Yeah, no. I mean, the one reason why it’s going to be so quiet next week is that we’re going to see Pacific air flood the zone. We’re going to have a really big storm out in the eastern Pacific, bringing stormy weather to British Columbia and Alaska. And when we see that, we tend to see a mild air mass across the U.S. with really no opportunity for Canadian air to come in. So what this is going to mean is that temperatures are going to be continually warmer than average for probably a good 7 to 10 days.
Todd Gleason: Well, thank you much. We appreciate that when we get the time. But we would like to have a little cooler weather to get a bit more fieldwork done. Turn your attention to South America, talk about some of the areas you’ve been watching closely there.
Don Day: Well, it’s going to be pretty stormy here over the next 7 to 10 days over the northern half of the continent. We’re seeing a shift northward of the better rain, kind of out of Argentina and southern Brazil, more towards the central and northern parts of Brazil as you get into Peru and into the northwest countries of South America. While there still will be rain down in Argentina, amounts are going to be less.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. I appreciate it.
Don Day: Thank you.
21:38 Remembering Dale Helms
Todd Gleason: Don Day is with Day Weather. He is in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Now, before I let you go for the afternoon, you know on occasion I make note of the passing of folks that are important either in my life or to the university. Over the weekend, Dale Orville Helms, who is 89, from Richmond Heights, Missouri passed away. He is formerly of Belleville, Illinois. Dale was raised there on his family farm on Old Freeburg Road, and he loved his Angus cattle herd. He showed at many county and state fairs in his youth, and his love for agriculture led him to this university, the University of Illinois, where he studied animal sciences. While at Illinois, he was a member of the Alpha Gamma Rho fraternity, where he held offices and developed lifelong friendships. He also was on the University of Illinois livestock judging team that won first place at the International Livestock Show in 1958. Dale graduated with highest academic honors from the University of Illinois as a Bronze Tablet, which is awarded to the top 3% of the graduating class. He later served on the University of Illinois Ag Alumni Board and worked to establish the initial donors for the Jonathan Baldwin Turner scholarships. And on that personal note, Dale was one of the folks that traveled with us on the WILL Ag follow the corn bus trip to New Orleans in 2012. Today we remember Dale Orville Helms. I’m University of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.