Episode Number
10474
Episode Show Notes / Description
With the Midwestern corn and soybean harvest virtually complete, traders are aggressively shifting their focus to next week's USDA supply and demand report. In today's Closing Market Report Greg Johnson of TGM, Total Grain Marketing, notes that while national yield estimates might increase, Illinois corn yields are tracking noticeably lower, leaving soybeans with considerably more downside price risk than corn. Next month, producers must finalize their ARC and PLC safety net decisions by a December 11th deadline, with University of Illinois experts currently favoring ARC-County for most corn and soybean acres. Looking globally, Drew Lerner of World Weather Incorporated reports that while Argentina is soaking up favorable El Nino rains, central Brazil and Russia's southern winter wheat regions are still struggling with lingering dryness.
01:58 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing
12:08 ARC / PLC decision for the crop just harvested due December 11
13:31 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc
01:58 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing
12:08 ARC / PLC decision for the crop just harvested due December 11
13:31 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc
Transcript
cmr261104
With the Midwestern corn and soybean harvest virtually complete, traders are aggressively shifting their focus to next week's USDA supply and demand report. In today's Closing Market Report Greg Johnson of TGM, Total Grain Marketing, notes that while national yield estimates might increase, Illinois corn yields are tracking noticeably lower, leaving soybeans with considerably more downside price risk than corn. Next month, producers must finalize their ARC and PLC safety net decisions by a December 11th deadline, with University of Illinois experts currently favoring ARC-County for most corn and soybean acres. Looking globally, Drew Lerner of World Weather Incorporated reports that while Argentina is soaking up favorable El Nino rains, central Brazil and Russia's southern winter wheat regions are still struggling with lingering dryness.
01:58 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing
12:08 ARC / PLC decision for the crop just harvested due December 11
13:31 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc
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Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the fourth day of November, 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson. He’s at TGM, that’s totalgrainmarketing.com. I’ll tell you about that ARC PLC decision you’ll be needing to make in the month of December. That’s right, in the month of December, it’s for the crop you are harvesting or have just harvested this fall. And then we’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast as we close out our time together. We’ll talk with Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City, all on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org.
announce: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: December corn for the day settled at $4.45 and a half, that was up a penny and three quarters. Higher than March at $4.58 and a quarter, up two. And May corn up a penny and a half at $4.66 and a half. To January now, at $12.02 and a quarter, down 11 and three quarters. March at $12.10 and a quarter, 10 and a half lower. And November beans, $11.88 and a quarter, down three and three quarters. Bean meal, 60 cents higher at $318.60. The bean oil, down $1.75 at $63.53. Wheat futures, soft red December at $5.98 and a half, a penny and a quarter lower. The hard red December at $6.32 and three quarters, down three and a half cents. Live cattle futures in Chicago finished the nearby contract 15 cents lower. Feeder cattle were down $2.65, and the lean hogs a dollar and a nickel lower. Crude oil trading West Texas at $87.87 for the day, down $8.21. And the Brent crude at $94.60, down $9.01.
01:58 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing
Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson from TGM, totalgrainmarketing.com, right here in Champaign County, the FS Growmark elevator now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hi, Greg, thanks much for being with us. A little rainfall, that was the big thing that happened last night, was the two-tenths of rain that we got by the way, I guess. Keeping farmers out of the field for a while today, but I bet you’ll be busy again this afternoon.
Greg Johnson: Well, and busy is a relative term. I really think we’re 97 percent done with the corn harvest and we’re 100 percent done with the bean harvest, so there’s not a lot left. But what little bit is left, yes, I think people will be able to run this afternoon. Two-tenths should not keep anybody out of the field, and the forecast looks wide open now for the next five or six days. So, I really think we’ll get just about everybody done here over the next five to six days, and then we can put this harvest in the books.
Todd Gleason: You know at 97 percent harvested, the Associated Press would call that done at this point. The harvest is over. That’s all we’re going to say. Let’s talk about where this marketplace is and what you think happens post-election now. In this month of November, we have a holiday at the end of the month. What kinds of things are you watching?
Greg Johnson: Well, the next big thing probably is going to be the USDA November 10th supply and demand report. Traders got caught off guard in the October report when USDA raised the yield when traders were expecting it to be lowered. Some traders again think that this will be the month where they finally lower it. But StoneX came out with their numbers yesterday, and they actually raised the corn yield again, and they raised the bean yield—and not by a little bit, by almost two bushels to the acre from where the USDA is. They’re at 55, and USDA is at 53.1. StoneX is at 183 on the corn, and USDA is at 181. So, StoneX at least is looking for bigger numbers on the 10th, and we’ll see what happens. But that’s probably one of the next big market movers as a result of that report next Tuesday.
Todd Gleason: What are your expectations from the report?
Greg Johnson: Well, all I can say is that Illinois’ number better go down. I can’t speak to Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, some of the other big states, but the yield results that we’re hearing here through central and northern Illinois are disappointing. Twenty-five, I would say 25 bushels lower than last year is pretty common. Not everyone is in that camp. If you were able to avoid the standing water, you know, you might only be down five or 10 bushels to the acre. But I don’t think there was anything that was better than last year, and a lot of it, like I say, was 25 bushels less. And then if you’re in some areas that had standing water for an even longer period of time, up river bottom ground for example, there were yields in the 160 to 170 range, which is quite a bit lower than normal. So, Illinois’ number was 208 bushels to the acre on corn. I would think that needs to come down to 204, 205, wouldn’t be surprised at that, and then maybe eventually getting it down to 202 for Illinois. But again, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Indiana maybe could offset Illinois, but Illinois’ number is certainly too high on corn. And on beans, I guess I do agree with StoneX and with the USDA. I think we have a record bean crop here in the state of Illinois. So, I guess I’m looking for bean yields to increase when those numbers come out on Tuesday.
Todd Gleason: Because it is Illinois, it is the number one soybean producing state in the nation. It is a big, big number coming out of just this one state. Big enough I would think to have an impact on the marketplace?
Greg Johnson: Well, yeah, because I don’t think the other states are any worse. Illinois I think kind of had the same weather that Iowa had for example. So I guess I wouldn’t be surprised to see Iowa and Minnesota bean yields increase. Maybe not to the extent that Illinois does, but those are three pretty big states that probably will have some kind of an increase in their bean yield. So, it probably isn’t warranted to look for a friendly number out of the USDA when it comes to the soybean numbers on Tuesday.
Todd Gleason: So, I take it you see corn and soybean numbers converging or coming closer together rather than further apart as it relates to price. Which one goes up and which one goes down, or which percentage is worse?
Greg Johnson: Yeah, the fact that the funds are still not quite record long on beans, but they haven’t sold off much of their bean position, tells me that there’s potential for soybean prices to go down if the funds would in fact decide to bail out of that position. We’ve seen what happened when the funds bailed out of their corn position. The corn market lost over a dollar a bushel in the last six to seven weeks. And the good news is, I guess in corn, the funds have gotten to even now. So I don’t know that they really want to go short now that harvest is winding up. So most of the damage I think has been done in the corn market. Now we’ll just have to wait and see what kind of demand we can get to offset this bigger crop as far as corn is concerned. But with beans, the yields are good, the demand is okay on soybeans, but if we do raise the yield by a bushel an acre, that’s an 80 million bushel increase to production. And if you don’t increase demand, your bottom line, your ending stocks go up by 80 million. And right now they’re at 315, so that would put it up to 395, almost 400 million bushel carryout. So that’s a little burdensome. And we would assume that Brazil is going to plant another million more acres of soybeans, bring another million acres into production. So, it is an El Nino year, they may have problems, but we won’t know that till December, January. So in the short run, I think the risk on beans is to the downside, and the risk to corn is probably on the upside.
Todd Gleason: And for soybeans, they seem to have been tied more at the hip to crude oil than corn through this turbulent period, with the wars in Iran and in Ukraine. How do you view that tie, and the cheaper crude oil gets, does it continue to go down for a while and then unhook from it, or how do you expect that to happen, or am I not putting the two together correctly?
Greg Johnson: No, you brought up an excellent point. Soybean oil is tied to crude oil, and soybean oil years ago was a relatively minor component of the soybean price because 48 pounds of every soybean is soybean meal, and only 11 or 12 pounds is oil. But because of the renewable biodiesel mandate, the soybean oil component has taken a much bigger weight when it comes to pricing soybeans. And so, crude oil directly influences soybean oil, which directly influences soybeans. So, if, and this brings us to the one topic we haven’t talked about yet, if peace breaks out in the Middle East or some kind of a ceasefire, oil prices have dropped the last couple of days. If oil prices continue to drop, that would put pressure on the soybean oil market, which would obviously put pressure on the soybeans. On the other hand, if tensions escalate and crude oil prices go back up, then that’s friendly for soybean oil and consequently friendly for soybean prices as well.
Todd Gleason: The president over the last 24 hours has said, and prior to that as well, that he’s willing to give diplomacy a chance. It is important to note I suppose that the third aircraft carrier which is underway now to the Middle East is expected to arrive not until the week of Thanksgiving or thereabouts. Something to watch I would think.
Greg Johnson: Exactly. Yes, if you knew, I think that and the USDA report next week, those are probably the two most immediate factors that will influence this market for the better or for the worse.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. I appreciate it, Greg.
Greg Johnson: Hey, thank you, Todd.
Todd Gleason: You’re so welcome. That’s Greg Johnson. He is with TGM, Total Grain Marketing, at totalgrainmarketing.com online. It’s the grain elevator system that belongs to Growmark FS and is located right here in Champaign County, Illinois.
Now, let’s turn your attention to the farmdoc team. They’ll be on the road in the month of December, so will I, with them. We hope that you will join us in Mount Vernon, Sherman (which is near Springfield), Peoria, or in DeKalb. That starts the week of the 14th of December. It runs in that order all week long: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The cost is just $80. Come out and see the farmdoc team and hear what they have to say about conditions on the ground as it relates to the farm economy. Register now. Don’t wait at willag.org.
12:08 ARC / PLC decision for the crop just harvested due December 11
Todd Gleason: Just a couple of news items for the day. John Deere is bringing workers back to its Midwest factories despite a slumping equipment market. The company plans to hire more than 400 workers and recall over 275 employees to its Waterloo, Iowa operations. Deere says this brings total callbacks since 2024 to about a thousand. Laid-off workers in Waterloo, the Quad Cities, Ottumwa, and Dubuque have been asked to return. Though Agropulse reports about 125 remain off near Des Moines. The shifts come ahead of next year’s labor negotiations and amidst weak demand. The Association of Equipment Manufacturers reports US tractor sales dropped 16 percent in September, that compared to last year, while combine sales fell 11 percent.
Corn, soybean, and wheat farmers across the nation will need to make a farm safety net decision next month. The ARC PLC choice was delayed from March for this year’s crop until December 11th. Right now, the farmdoc team from the University of Illinois believes ARC-County will be the best corn and soybean option for most producers in the state of Illinois. Wheat is more subjective, however, they’d like to see more data before making final calls. That’ll all come next week with the USDA November crop production and WASDE releases. Follow the farmdoc daily website for a post-report ARC PLC decision update. You may also come up to speed on what the team is thinking today by watching the October webinar on the subject on YouTube or looking for the current farmdoc daily article. It’s also possible to download and review the slide set from the webinar from the farmdoc daily website. The video and the slide set are in the archive section under webinars and events.
13:31 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc
Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the global growing regions and what crop conditions might be like in each of them as it’s related to the weather. Drew Lerner is here. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City, Missouri. Hello, Drew, thank you for being with us today.
Drew Lerner: Good afternoon. I hope everything is going good over that way.
Todd Gleason: It is. It’s again looks like we’re going to have some beautiful weather. You’re going to tell me about that. And I didn’t get as much rainfall as I maybe had hoped for last night, just a couple of tenths here in Mahomet where I live. But we’ll find out more in just a moment about that. I do want to start with the weather in North America. Maybe walk me through some of the primary growing regions and if there are or are not issues that we should discuss. You and I usually start in the Canadian prairies.
Drew Lerner: Yeah, for them they’re about done for the season. There’s a little bit of fieldwork left to be done and they had some snow on the ground for a little while, but they warmed up really nicely and a lot of that is gone. And what’s not gone will be gone soon. So I think they’ll be able to finish up pretty quickly. There may be a few spots I suppose in northern Alberta that may not be able to get all the crop in before the next snow, but for the most part they’re doing okay.
Todd Gleason: In the Great Plains, Montana, the Dakotas, to the west parts of Nebraska, things look like what?
Drew Lerner: Well it’s not terrible, but there are pockets that are still kind of dry, especially when we look at the subsoil there from Montana through western parts of the Dakotas and down the front range of the mountains into eastern Colorado. That region there still has very low subsoil moisture. And the topsoil is pretty firmed up too in many of those areas. But there are some areas like eastern Montana and western North Dakota that are in better shape from a topsoil moisture perspective. But there’s definitely room for more moisture to occur in some of those areas. The precipitation that occurred in hard red winter wheat areas over the past week didn’t do well in Colorado. There was a little bit of moisture there, but not enough to seriously improve the moisture profile. But there was improvement further to the south in parts of southern Oklahoma and northern Texas, where there was still quite a bit of moisture deficit just a few days back.
Todd Gleason: Eastern North Dakota through Nebraska and the Corn Belt across the United States.
Drew Lerner: Yeah, the majority of the northwest, we’ll say half of the corn and soybean producing area, has received some significant rain here recently. And the topsoil is adequate to surplus. Subsoil moisture is running from, we’ll call it marginally adequate to slightly short in the eastern Dakotas. Although that is actually, well that was the case before this rain event came up, I’m sure that situation is going to get a little bit better here as that topsoil moisture starts to work its way downward in the ground. For Iowa, we have adequate subsoil moisture and we’re saturated at the topsoil, so it’s probably a little bit wet there for some fieldwork. But the good news is all of that region in the northwest will likely see a dry biased pattern now for a good full week, if not eight or nine days. And for the lower eastern Midwest, we do have some dryness still out there, which has been great for the harvest. There is some need for moisture for some of the winter wheat, and I think we’re going to, we picked up on some of that, you mentioned it just a little bit ago from yesterday’s rain. There may be a little bit of shower activity that still lingers, but I think for the most part we’re probably just about done with the moisture for the lower Midwest here for a while. So some of that dryness that may not have been seriously eased will probably persist over the next 10 days. I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of follow-up moisture now for that region. But it’s also not summertime, so we won’t have the same level of heat and we’ll conserve what moisture we do have.
Todd Gleason: The hard red winter wheat growing regions, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas.
Drew Lerner: Yeah, those areas did really well with weather this past week. Rain fell in most of those areas, maybe far western Kansas didn’t do quite as well as the rest of the state, but most of that wheat region is in good enough shape that the crop is going to continue to establish in a favorable environment. We’ll be slightly cooler over the next few days, maybe some sub-freezing temperatures in Nebraska, northeastern Colorado, northwestern Kansas. But just for a few nights, and then we’ll turn around and heat up well above normal next week. So the wheat crop should establish additionally and do fairly well I think before we do get into a more serious dormancy situation.
Todd Gleason: The lower Mississippi River Valley or the Delta region?
Drew Lerner: Yeah, now that area is still struggling with a lot of dryness. Now the northern Delta and parts of the Tennessee basin did get some rain, two different rain events in the past week, and that helped to ease up the dryness in the topsoil. But the lower Delta and still many areas in the Tennessee basin are still quite dry down deep in the ground. And we need moisture to put some wheat into the ground, so that was helpful in that sense, but the lower Delta did not do well enough to really change the bottom line. So we’re going to be waiting patiently for some better rains to occur in that region. And of course, El Nino year supposedly generates some abundant moisture in the southeastern part of the United States. Sometimes that includes parts of the Delta, sometimes it doesn’t. But we ought to do better with precipitation once we get into late November and especially December.
Todd Gleason: Does that extend all the way through the southeast?
Drew Lerner: It will, it will. In fact, I think that some areas in Georgia, Florida, and the Carolinas will probably end up being too wet by the time we get to spring next year.
Todd Gleason: Now let’s begin in Brazil, work your way southward through Argentina. Start in the northern states.
Drew Lerner: Yep, in Brazil we’re still fighting a lot of dryness today. The seasonal rains have really not been that great. But they have occurred, there’s been scattered showers around, enough to germinate crops and get them started, but there’s a lot of pockets out there that are too dry. And this pattern will continue for just a few more days, and then it looks like we’re going to have a better opportunity for a little bit more meaningful rainfall to occur across center-west and northeastern parts of Brazil. This will occur as we finish out the weekend and move into early next week. I urge a little caution here though, I think the mentality out there is it’s going to rain better than I think it might. And so don’t be surprised if we see some improvement short-term here with topsoil moisture improving, but the subsoil is probably going to stay low and there’s going to be some ongoing need for more moisture, especially in the northeast part of Brazil. So that’ll be an area we’ll keep an eye on for a while. Further south in Brazil, we still have favorable moisture in many areas. There’s still pockets that are excessively wet. But they’re few in number and they’re relatively small sized at the moment. But we do expect a lot more rain to occur as we go forward through the next 10 days, so some of those areas in the south are going to become too wet once again. And so we’ll need to watch that region as well. But I think, you know, if you step back and look at Brazil from a 30,000 foot level, I think for the most part they’re in fairly good shape. We’ve got the crop in the ground or it’s still going into the ground, but doing so in a very timely manner. And if we can get timely rains to occur, the crop is probably going to perform fairly well.
Todd Gleason: How’s the super El Nino treating Argentina?
Drew Lerner: Argentina loves El Nino. And we are seeing good moisture across most of Argentina. The only exception is in the northwest, but that area is not nearly as important as the south, central, and east. So we are expecting to see routinely occurring rainfall in the key production areas over the next 10 days. And they are on the road to a pretty big crop this year if they can get it all planted.
Todd Gleason: Anything from other parts of the world that we should check in on before I let you go?
Drew Lerner: Well, we’re still watching Russia’s southern region. That area of course is a very important winter wheat production area. And the trend there has been for below normal precipitation for quite some time. The early season rains were good to get the crops started, but we really haven’t done well in recent weeks. And the outlook is that, well, maybe they’ll get some moisture next week, but it’s also getting colder. And I think the crop is going to end up becoming semi-dormant at about the time the moisture arrives. So I think they’ll be okay going into spring as long as there’s no extreme weather without snow on the ground, and we’ll have to watch that winterkill potential. But if they can sidestep that, there ought to be moisture in the ground for improvement next year.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. I appreciate it.
Drew Lerner: You bet. Have a great week.
Todd Gleason: You too. That’s Drew Lerner. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Joined us on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. Visit our website willag.org. A couple of things you’ll find there, of course, our programming to listen to on demand, just click and play, or you can search it out by its name. Today’s program, the Closing Market Report, or Commodity Week, in your favorite podcast applications. On the website, you’ll also find a way to register for the Illinois Farm Economics Summits. They’re coming up in December, the AgEcon team and I will be on the road then. And of course, you can read what the AgEcon team has been thinking anytime you’d like right there at willag.org. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason.
With the Midwestern corn and soybean harvest virtually complete, traders are aggressively shifting their focus to next week's USDA supply and demand report. In today's Closing Market Report Greg Johnson of TGM, Total Grain Marketing, notes that while national yield estimates might increase, Illinois corn yields are tracking noticeably lower, leaving soybeans with considerably more downside price risk than corn. Next month, producers must finalize their ARC and PLC safety net decisions by a December 11th deadline, with University of Illinois experts currently favoring ARC-County for most corn and soybean acres. Looking globally, Drew Lerner of World Weather Incorporated reports that while Argentina is soaking up favorable El Nino rains, central Brazil and Russia's southern winter wheat regions are still struggling with lingering dryness.
01:58 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing
12:08 ARC / PLC decision for the crop just harvested due December 11
13:31 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc
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Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the fourth day of November, 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson. He’s at TGM, that’s totalgrainmarketing.com. I’ll tell you about that ARC PLC decision you’ll be needing to make in the month of December. That’s right, in the month of December, it’s for the crop you are harvesting or have just harvested this fall. And then we’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast as we close out our time together. We’ll talk with Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City, all on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org.
announce: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: December corn for the day settled at $4.45 and a half, that was up a penny and three quarters. Higher than March at $4.58 and a quarter, up two. And May corn up a penny and a half at $4.66 and a half. To January now, at $12.02 and a quarter, down 11 and three quarters. March at $12.10 and a quarter, 10 and a half lower. And November beans, $11.88 and a quarter, down three and three quarters. Bean meal, 60 cents higher at $318.60. The bean oil, down $1.75 at $63.53. Wheat futures, soft red December at $5.98 and a half, a penny and a quarter lower. The hard red December at $6.32 and three quarters, down three and a half cents. Live cattle futures in Chicago finished the nearby contract 15 cents lower. Feeder cattle were down $2.65, and the lean hogs a dollar and a nickel lower. Crude oil trading West Texas at $87.87 for the day, down $8.21. And the Brent crude at $94.60, down $9.01.
01:58 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing
Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson from TGM, totalgrainmarketing.com, right here in Champaign County, the FS Growmark elevator now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hi, Greg, thanks much for being with us. A little rainfall, that was the big thing that happened last night, was the two-tenths of rain that we got by the way, I guess. Keeping farmers out of the field for a while today, but I bet you’ll be busy again this afternoon.
Greg Johnson: Well, and busy is a relative term. I really think we’re 97 percent done with the corn harvest and we’re 100 percent done with the bean harvest, so there’s not a lot left. But what little bit is left, yes, I think people will be able to run this afternoon. Two-tenths should not keep anybody out of the field, and the forecast looks wide open now for the next five or six days. So, I really think we’ll get just about everybody done here over the next five to six days, and then we can put this harvest in the books.
Todd Gleason: You know at 97 percent harvested, the Associated Press would call that done at this point. The harvest is over. That’s all we’re going to say. Let’s talk about where this marketplace is and what you think happens post-election now. In this month of November, we have a holiday at the end of the month. What kinds of things are you watching?
Greg Johnson: Well, the next big thing probably is going to be the USDA November 10th supply and demand report. Traders got caught off guard in the October report when USDA raised the yield when traders were expecting it to be lowered. Some traders again think that this will be the month where they finally lower it. But StoneX came out with their numbers yesterday, and they actually raised the corn yield again, and they raised the bean yield—and not by a little bit, by almost two bushels to the acre from where the USDA is. They’re at 55, and USDA is at 53.1. StoneX is at 183 on the corn, and USDA is at 181. So, StoneX at least is looking for bigger numbers on the 10th, and we’ll see what happens. But that’s probably one of the next big market movers as a result of that report next Tuesday.
Todd Gleason: What are your expectations from the report?
Greg Johnson: Well, all I can say is that Illinois’ number better go down. I can’t speak to Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, some of the other big states, but the yield results that we’re hearing here through central and northern Illinois are disappointing. Twenty-five, I would say 25 bushels lower than last year is pretty common. Not everyone is in that camp. If you were able to avoid the standing water, you know, you might only be down five or 10 bushels to the acre. But I don’t think there was anything that was better than last year, and a lot of it, like I say, was 25 bushels less. And then if you’re in some areas that had standing water for an even longer period of time, up river bottom ground for example, there were yields in the 160 to 170 range, which is quite a bit lower than normal. So, Illinois’ number was 208 bushels to the acre on corn. I would think that needs to come down to 204, 205, wouldn’t be surprised at that, and then maybe eventually getting it down to 202 for Illinois. But again, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Indiana maybe could offset Illinois, but Illinois’ number is certainly too high on corn. And on beans, I guess I do agree with StoneX and with the USDA. I think we have a record bean crop here in the state of Illinois. So, I guess I’m looking for bean yields to increase when those numbers come out on Tuesday.
Todd Gleason: Because it is Illinois, it is the number one soybean producing state in the nation. It is a big, big number coming out of just this one state. Big enough I would think to have an impact on the marketplace?
Greg Johnson: Well, yeah, because I don’t think the other states are any worse. Illinois I think kind of had the same weather that Iowa had for example. So I guess I wouldn’t be surprised to see Iowa and Minnesota bean yields increase. Maybe not to the extent that Illinois does, but those are three pretty big states that probably will have some kind of an increase in their bean yield. So, it probably isn’t warranted to look for a friendly number out of the USDA when it comes to the soybean numbers on Tuesday.
Todd Gleason: So, I take it you see corn and soybean numbers converging or coming closer together rather than further apart as it relates to price. Which one goes up and which one goes down, or which percentage is worse?
Greg Johnson: Yeah, the fact that the funds are still not quite record long on beans, but they haven’t sold off much of their bean position, tells me that there’s potential for soybean prices to go down if the funds would in fact decide to bail out of that position. We’ve seen what happened when the funds bailed out of their corn position. The corn market lost over a dollar a bushel in the last six to seven weeks. And the good news is, I guess in corn, the funds have gotten to even now. So I don’t know that they really want to go short now that harvest is winding up. So most of the damage I think has been done in the corn market. Now we’ll just have to wait and see what kind of demand we can get to offset this bigger crop as far as corn is concerned. But with beans, the yields are good, the demand is okay on soybeans, but if we do raise the yield by a bushel an acre, that’s an 80 million bushel increase to production. And if you don’t increase demand, your bottom line, your ending stocks go up by 80 million. And right now they’re at 315, so that would put it up to 395, almost 400 million bushel carryout. So that’s a little burdensome. And we would assume that Brazil is going to plant another million more acres of soybeans, bring another million acres into production. So, it is an El Nino year, they may have problems, but we won’t know that till December, January. So in the short run, I think the risk on beans is to the downside, and the risk to corn is probably on the upside.
Todd Gleason: And for soybeans, they seem to have been tied more at the hip to crude oil than corn through this turbulent period, with the wars in Iran and in Ukraine. How do you view that tie, and the cheaper crude oil gets, does it continue to go down for a while and then unhook from it, or how do you expect that to happen, or am I not putting the two together correctly?
Greg Johnson: No, you brought up an excellent point. Soybean oil is tied to crude oil, and soybean oil years ago was a relatively minor component of the soybean price because 48 pounds of every soybean is soybean meal, and only 11 or 12 pounds is oil. But because of the renewable biodiesel mandate, the soybean oil component has taken a much bigger weight when it comes to pricing soybeans. And so, crude oil directly influences soybean oil, which directly influences soybeans. So, if, and this brings us to the one topic we haven’t talked about yet, if peace breaks out in the Middle East or some kind of a ceasefire, oil prices have dropped the last couple of days. If oil prices continue to drop, that would put pressure on the soybean oil market, which would obviously put pressure on the soybeans. On the other hand, if tensions escalate and crude oil prices go back up, then that’s friendly for soybean oil and consequently friendly for soybean prices as well.
Todd Gleason: The president over the last 24 hours has said, and prior to that as well, that he’s willing to give diplomacy a chance. It is important to note I suppose that the third aircraft carrier which is underway now to the Middle East is expected to arrive not until the week of Thanksgiving or thereabouts. Something to watch I would think.
Greg Johnson: Exactly. Yes, if you knew, I think that and the USDA report next week, those are probably the two most immediate factors that will influence this market for the better or for the worse.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. I appreciate it, Greg.
Greg Johnson: Hey, thank you, Todd.
Todd Gleason: You’re so welcome. That’s Greg Johnson. He is with TGM, Total Grain Marketing, at totalgrainmarketing.com online. It’s the grain elevator system that belongs to Growmark FS and is located right here in Champaign County, Illinois.
Now, let’s turn your attention to the farmdoc team. They’ll be on the road in the month of December, so will I, with them. We hope that you will join us in Mount Vernon, Sherman (which is near Springfield), Peoria, or in DeKalb. That starts the week of the 14th of December. It runs in that order all week long: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The cost is just $80. Come out and see the farmdoc team and hear what they have to say about conditions on the ground as it relates to the farm economy. Register now. Don’t wait at willag.org.
12:08 ARC / PLC decision for the crop just harvested due December 11
Todd Gleason: Just a couple of news items for the day. John Deere is bringing workers back to its Midwest factories despite a slumping equipment market. The company plans to hire more than 400 workers and recall over 275 employees to its Waterloo, Iowa operations. Deere says this brings total callbacks since 2024 to about a thousand. Laid-off workers in Waterloo, the Quad Cities, Ottumwa, and Dubuque have been asked to return. Though Agropulse reports about 125 remain off near Des Moines. The shifts come ahead of next year’s labor negotiations and amidst weak demand. The Association of Equipment Manufacturers reports US tractor sales dropped 16 percent in September, that compared to last year, while combine sales fell 11 percent.
Corn, soybean, and wheat farmers across the nation will need to make a farm safety net decision next month. The ARC PLC choice was delayed from March for this year’s crop until December 11th. Right now, the farmdoc team from the University of Illinois believes ARC-County will be the best corn and soybean option for most producers in the state of Illinois. Wheat is more subjective, however, they’d like to see more data before making final calls. That’ll all come next week with the USDA November crop production and WASDE releases. Follow the farmdoc daily website for a post-report ARC PLC decision update. You may also come up to speed on what the team is thinking today by watching the October webinar on the subject on YouTube or looking for the current farmdoc daily article. It’s also possible to download and review the slide set from the webinar from the farmdoc daily website. The video and the slide set are in the archive section under webinars and events.
13:31 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc
Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the global growing regions and what crop conditions might be like in each of them as it’s related to the weather. Drew Lerner is here. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City, Missouri. Hello, Drew, thank you for being with us today.
Drew Lerner: Good afternoon. I hope everything is going good over that way.
Todd Gleason: It is. It’s again looks like we’re going to have some beautiful weather. You’re going to tell me about that. And I didn’t get as much rainfall as I maybe had hoped for last night, just a couple of tenths here in Mahomet where I live. But we’ll find out more in just a moment about that. I do want to start with the weather in North America. Maybe walk me through some of the primary growing regions and if there are or are not issues that we should discuss. You and I usually start in the Canadian prairies.
Drew Lerner: Yeah, for them they’re about done for the season. There’s a little bit of fieldwork left to be done and they had some snow on the ground for a little while, but they warmed up really nicely and a lot of that is gone. And what’s not gone will be gone soon. So I think they’ll be able to finish up pretty quickly. There may be a few spots I suppose in northern Alberta that may not be able to get all the crop in before the next snow, but for the most part they’re doing okay.
Todd Gleason: In the Great Plains, Montana, the Dakotas, to the west parts of Nebraska, things look like what?
Drew Lerner: Well it’s not terrible, but there are pockets that are still kind of dry, especially when we look at the subsoil there from Montana through western parts of the Dakotas and down the front range of the mountains into eastern Colorado. That region there still has very low subsoil moisture. And the topsoil is pretty firmed up too in many of those areas. But there are some areas like eastern Montana and western North Dakota that are in better shape from a topsoil moisture perspective. But there’s definitely room for more moisture to occur in some of those areas. The precipitation that occurred in hard red winter wheat areas over the past week didn’t do well in Colorado. There was a little bit of moisture there, but not enough to seriously improve the moisture profile. But there was improvement further to the south in parts of southern Oklahoma and northern Texas, where there was still quite a bit of moisture deficit just a few days back.
Todd Gleason: Eastern North Dakota through Nebraska and the Corn Belt across the United States.
Drew Lerner: Yeah, the majority of the northwest, we’ll say half of the corn and soybean producing area, has received some significant rain here recently. And the topsoil is adequate to surplus. Subsoil moisture is running from, we’ll call it marginally adequate to slightly short in the eastern Dakotas. Although that is actually, well that was the case before this rain event came up, I’m sure that situation is going to get a little bit better here as that topsoil moisture starts to work its way downward in the ground. For Iowa, we have adequate subsoil moisture and we’re saturated at the topsoil, so it’s probably a little bit wet there for some fieldwork. But the good news is all of that region in the northwest will likely see a dry biased pattern now for a good full week, if not eight or nine days. And for the lower eastern Midwest, we do have some dryness still out there, which has been great for the harvest. There is some need for moisture for some of the winter wheat, and I think we’re going to, we picked up on some of that, you mentioned it just a little bit ago from yesterday’s rain. There may be a little bit of shower activity that still lingers, but I think for the most part we’re probably just about done with the moisture for the lower Midwest here for a while. So some of that dryness that may not have been seriously eased will probably persist over the next 10 days. I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of follow-up moisture now for that region. But it’s also not summertime, so we won’t have the same level of heat and we’ll conserve what moisture we do have.
Todd Gleason: The hard red winter wheat growing regions, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas.
Drew Lerner: Yeah, those areas did really well with weather this past week. Rain fell in most of those areas, maybe far western Kansas didn’t do quite as well as the rest of the state, but most of that wheat region is in good enough shape that the crop is going to continue to establish in a favorable environment. We’ll be slightly cooler over the next few days, maybe some sub-freezing temperatures in Nebraska, northeastern Colorado, northwestern Kansas. But just for a few nights, and then we’ll turn around and heat up well above normal next week. So the wheat crop should establish additionally and do fairly well I think before we do get into a more serious dormancy situation.
Todd Gleason: The lower Mississippi River Valley or the Delta region?
Drew Lerner: Yeah, now that area is still struggling with a lot of dryness. Now the northern Delta and parts of the Tennessee basin did get some rain, two different rain events in the past week, and that helped to ease up the dryness in the topsoil. But the lower Delta and still many areas in the Tennessee basin are still quite dry down deep in the ground. And we need moisture to put some wheat into the ground, so that was helpful in that sense, but the lower Delta did not do well enough to really change the bottom line. So we’re going to be waiting patiently for some better rains to occur in that region. And of course, El Nino year supposedly generates some abundant moisture in the southeastern part of the United States. Sometimes that includes parts of the Delta, sometimes it doesn’t. But we ought to do better with precipitation once we get into late November and especially December.
Todd Gleason: Does that extend all the way through the southeast?
Drew Lerner: It will, it will. In fact, I think that some areas in Georgia, Florida, and the Carolinas will probably end up being too wet by the time we get to spring next year.
Todd Gleason: Now let’s begin in Brazil, work your way southward through Argentina. Start in the northern states.
Drew Lerner: Yep, in Brazil we’re still fighting a lot of dryness today. The seasonal rains have really not been that great. But they have occurred, there’s been scattered showers around, enough to germinate crops and get them started, but there’s a lot of pockets out there that are too dry. And this pattern will continue for just a few more days, and then it looks like we’re going to have a better opportunity for a little bit more meaningful rainfall to occur across center-west and northeastern parts of Brazil. This will occur as we finish out the weekend and move into early next week. I urge a little caution here though, I think the mentality out there is it’s going to rain better than I think it might. And so don’t be surprised if we see some improvement short-term here with topsoil moisture improving, but the subsoil is probably going to stay low and there’s going to be some ongoing need for more moisture, especially in the northeast part of Brazil. So that’ll be an area we’ll keep an eye on for a while. Further south in Brazil, we still have favorable moisture in many areas. There’s still pockets that are excessively wet. But they’re few in number and they’re relatively small sized at the moment. But we do expect a lot more rain to occur as we go forward through the next 10 days, so some of those areas in the south are going to become too wet once again. And so we’ll need to watch that region as well. But I think, you know, if you step back and look at Brazil from a 30,000 foot level, I think for the most part they’re in fairly good shape. We’ve got the crop in the ground or it’s still going into the ground, but doing so in a very timely manner. And if we can get timely rains to occur, the crop is probably going to perform fairly well.
Todd Gleason: How’s the super El Nino treating Argentina?
Drew Lerner: Argentina loves El Nino. And we are seeing good moisture across most of Argentina. The only exception is in the northwest, but that area is not nearly as important as the south, central, and east. So we are expecting to see routinely occurring rainfall in the key production areas over the next 10 days. And they are on the road to a pretty big crop this year if they can get it all planted.
Todd Gleason: Anything from other parts of the world that we should check in on before I let you go?
Drew Lerner: Well, we’re still watching Russia’s southern region. That area of course is a very important winter wheat production area. And the trend there has been for below normal precipitation for quite some time. The early season rains were good to get the crops started, but we really haven’t done well in recent weeks. And the outlook is that, well, maybe they’ll get some moisture next week, but it’s also getting colder. And I think the crop is going to end up becoming semi-dormant at about the time the moisture arrives. So I think they’ll be okay going into spring as long as there’s no extreme weather without snow on the ground, and we’ll have to watch that winterkill potential. But if they can sidestep that, there ought to be moisture in the ground for improvement next year.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. I appreciate it.
Drew Lerner: You bet. Have a great week.
Todd Gleason: You too. That’s Drew Lerner. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Joined us on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. Visit our website willag.org. A couple of things you’ll find there, of course, our programming to listen to on demand, just click and play, or you can search it out by its name. Today’s program, the Closing Market Report, or Commodity Week, in your favorite podcast applications. On the website, you’ll also find a way to register for the Illinois Farm Economics Summits. They’re coming up in December, the AgEcon team and I will be on the road then. And of course, you can read what the AgEcon team has been thinking anytime you’d like right there at willag.org. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason.