Episode Number
10451
Episode Show Notes / Description
The October 5, 2026 edition of the Closing Market Report opens with commodity market settlements before agricultural economist Ed Usset discusses harvest rain delays, localized spikes in soybean basis bids, and grain marketing strategies ahead of the upcoming USDA WASDE report. The broadcast then examines the rapid expansion of data centers into rural America with American Farm Bureau Federation economist Bernt Nelson, addressing the balance between high financial offers for landowners, the permanent loss of productive farmland, and agriculture's increasing dependence on data storage for precision farming. Concluding the program, EverStream Analytics meteorologist Mark Russo delivers the weather outlook, forecasting a shift to warmer and drier conditions across the Midwest to aid harvest progress through late October, alongside favorable early planting conditions across South America despite planting delays in wet southern Brazil.
02:03 Ag Markets with Ed Usset, University of Minnesota
13:57 Data Centers, a new farm country neighbor
17:57 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
02:03 Ag Markets with Ed Usset, University of Minnesota
13:57 Data Centers, a new farm country neighbor
17:57 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
Transcript
cmr261005
The October 5, 2026 edition of the Closing Market Report opens with commodity market settlements before agricultural economist Ed Usset discusses harvest rain delays, localized spikes in soybean basis bids, and grain marketing strategies ahead of the upcoming USDA WASDE report. The broadcast then examines the rapid expansion of data centers into rural America with American Farm Bureau Federation economist Bernt Nelson, addressing the balance between high financial offers for landowners, the permanent loss of productive farmland, and agriculture's increasing dependence on data storage for precision farming. Concluding the program, EverStream Analytics meteorologist Mark Russo delivers the weather outlook, forecasting a shift to warmer and drier conditions across the Midwest to aid harvest progress through late October, alongside favorable early planting conditions across South America despite planting delays in wet southern Brazil.
02:03 Ag Markets with Ed Usset, University of Minnesota
13:57 Data Centers, a new farm country neighbor
17:57 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
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Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the fifth day of October 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Ed Usset, agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota. We’ll hear about data centers across the United States from the American Farm Bureau Federation, Stephanie Hoff from NAFB has details, and then we’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast. We’ll be joined as usual on a Monday by Mark Russo from EverStream Analytics. Right here on the Closing Market Report, find us online, on-demand, anytime you’d like to listen. You can do that at willag.org. That’s w-i-l-l-a-g.org.
announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: December corn for the day settled at $4.97 and a quarter, down a half cent. The March at $5.11 and a half, unchanged. And May futures $5.18 and a half cents, unchanged. November beans $12.80 and three quarters, up two and a half cents. January $12.97 and a half, that finished three cents higher. And the March soybeans $13.08 even, up three and a quarter. Bean meal futures down 40 cents. The bean oil in the lead, 73 cents higher. Wheat futures soft red December at $6.92 and a quarter, up nine and a quarter cents. The hard red December at $7.42 and a quarter, up seven. Live cattle futures in Chicago down $1.50. Feeder cattle off $1.02 and a half cents. And lean hogs up 82 and a half cents for the day. Crude oil at $89.87 a barrel, down $1.24. Diesel fuel or heating oil is about a nickel and two tenths higher at $4.55 and two tenths of a cent per gallon. And the wholesale price of gasoline at this hour around five and eight tenths of a cent lower at $3.25 and four tenths of a cent.
02:03 Ag Markets with Ed Usset, University of Minnesota
Todd Gleason: We’re now joined by Ed Usset, agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota. Hi Ed, thanks for being with us again.
Ed Usset: Hey, thanks for having me.
Todd Gleason: Let’s talk about soybeans to begin with. The further north and the further west you go, the more likely that you have a basis probably that still remains maybe today at an over. I think what Joe Jansen has said, I know because I talked to him last week, was that if you’re in one of those areas and you missed it because you couldn’t get soybeans to that particular processor, not really your fault and not something you should put in the back of your mind that you just missed it. It’s something they couldn’t manage and that you couldn’t manage, and so not to worry about it. However, there probably remain some basis levels that are like that. How unusual is that this late in the game?
Ed Usset: Well, it’s unusual. It’s a very event-specific bump in the basis, that is, we’ve got these rains that have delayed the harvest. You’ve got a lot of buyers, buyers at these soybean plants who three, four weeks ago, you’re coming into harvest and you’re like, ‘Hey, absolutely minimize your ownership because the cheaper beans are coming in in a matter of a couple of weeks.’ So they run their stocks down to the bare minimum. And then here comes the rain delays. Now I used to be a buyer of wheat for flour mills, and I can tell you Todd that buyers live by two rules. And rule number one is you will never, ever run your plant—be it your flour mill, your ethanol plant, your soybean crushing facilities—you will never, ever run us out of raw material. Soybeans, wheat, and corn, that’s your last day on the job. Rule number two is if rain delays slow the harvest and beans are hard to find, or the quality is poor, or the price is high, refer back to rule number one for guidance. They got to get the soybeans. And you know, so here I saw a couple of plants in Iowa at a dollar over posted, a dollar over the November contract. Several Minnesota plants at 50 over the November contract. And when you see the basis bid that high, if you give them a call and you’ve got a serious number of bushels, you know, 50,000, 100,000, you might even do better. Okay, because they need soybeans. And this will end as soon as we dry up, and it looks like this week is going to improve. As soon as it dries up enough for producers to get in the field and start harvesting, that basis is going to disappear very quickly. Take advantage of it if you have the option to do so. If you have it. I contacted our own research and outlook centers at the U of M and I don’t know what they have or what the possibility is, and they aren’t necessarily close to those plants, but I said, you know, if you have beans and you can get a truck, you might take a look at that.
Todd Gleason: That’s the kind of thing that producers who have the opportunity can still manage, most will not have that opportunity. Now let’s talk about really what we think this crop looks like. We have the grain stocks that has been completed for the end of the last marketing year. Let’s begin there because those numbers roll right into the October WASDE world ag supply demand and estimates. How do you view the numbers?
Ed Usset: Well, I think the Friday report’s going to be really interesting. We have some things to figure out. You know, we had stocks much bigger. We have export issues, good, bad and indifferent going on. You know, there’s just a common agreement that the feed and residual in corn’s got to go lower. But we’re also worried—at the same time worried, we’re also sort of pondering—well, are they going to make this crop bigger or smaller with the yield? I hear you saying that, or I heard you saying that maybe the soybean crop might even get bigger. And I can’t help but look at all this rain and the crop delays, and I’m not sure how that impacts yields, but I could see it going lower too.
Todd Gleason: Absolutely. Both ways is possible. And so the question is, do you think that this particular report will have enough change to change the direction or not of this marketplace?
Ed Usset: Well I thought, after being so wrong on my call on these markets back in early August when I said, ‘Yeah we’re gonna revisit the June lows,’ and that wasn’t even close, we hit a record August. But I did feel that we’re now in a realizing market, that is, we gotta see what’s actually coming in from harvest and of course that story’s been delayed. But the market’s not gonna go higher until we actually see what we’re getting. The proof of a poor crop or proof of a good crop. And that’s what we’ve been doing. We’ve been wallowing sideways in the world of soybeans, we had a big drop in corn. This report I am going to pay very close attention to, because if they had two bushels either way on the corn market yield, could have a big impact. The soybean yield, a bushel either way could have a big impact.
Todd Gleason: Given that, you have to deal year in and year out with that which goes across the scale, that which is stored, or even if you do use storage, most don’t think about not using storage I would guess. However, what are your considerations?
Ed Usset: Well, I’m seeing a decent carry in the corn market. You know, you look December to May spread of about 22 cents this morning. That’s going to be hard for me to pass up if I’ve got storage and the ability to hedge in some way. That’s going to be hard to pass up. You want some—okay, everyone likes some unpriced bushels in the bin. We like that a little too much. I won’t argue with that, but I’m going to hedge some of that corn too. Soybeans, a lot of people are going to put it in the bin and hope for something better in the spring. Certainly a possibility, but put some numbers on it. Get an exit strategy, how much more are you looking for, you know, 50 cents higher than harvest price, a buck higher, put some numbers on it. And while you’re at it, put a number on where you’ll throw the towel in if things go the opposite direction, if they go south. So, but the carry in soybeans is not big enough to warrant selling the carry as you would in corn. You’re gonna have to take a risk with it. But think hard about what number you’re looking for ahead.
Todd Gleason: Soybeans almost says to you that it is a weather story in Brazil if things are going to go higher, I think maybe?
Ed Usset: I think so. But they’re talking about this super El Nino. I’ve heard more about super El Ninos than I… he ought to be a comic book character is what I think. But it’s interesting, and a lot of, ‘oh this could happen, that could happen,’ and you know what, I gotta see it happen.
Todd Gleason: Well here in Illinois we could get Captain Cornelius from the Illinois Corn Growers Association together with Super El Nino even for this year to see how that battle actually goes I suppose.
Ed Usset: I’ve got a job for you, Todd. In the next few days, go to AI and have outfits designed for Super El Nino and Captain Cornelius.
Todd Gleason: Well Captain Cornelius is a character, so that is already a generated character so that one I won’t deal with, but we can work on Super El Nino and see what that comes up with. Anything else that you’re watching that we really need to take a look at?
Ed Usset: No. Just a great disappointment in the wheat market, which has been just a huge disappointment in recent weeks. Got a little life in it today, but it speaks to this, you know, we talk about the problems, the war between Russia and Ukraine, the disruption of the wheat trade, and the only thing that has not resulted from that is an export sale out of the US. So we’re on the defensive.
Todd Gleason: Because you brought those up I do have a couple of other questions, both related to corn and soybeans as energy markets. How much of this marketplace do you suppose remains in the energy side as a percentage for corn and soybeans price, or something along those lines? And if it actually is settled, or if as the president says after the elections the midterms are complete that he will go back to war with Iran?
Ed Usset: The corn market, with the development of the ethanol industry some 15 to 20 years ago, you know, a third of our corn goes to ethanol now, to ethanol production. And energy is a big driver of that, and remains a big one. And we know the story in soybeans. Soybean oil is going to renewable diesel, the trend is up, strongly higher. So you cannot talk about corn and soybean prices without bringing the world energy market and prices into the discussion.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. We appreciate it. We’ll talk with you again next month.
Ed Usset: Thank you Todd. Take care.
Todd Gleason: You too. That’s Ed Usset, he is an agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota. The theme music for the Closing Market Report is written, produced, performed and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason, who today I know is in the field harvesting like many of those listening to our program. If you happen to be one of those folks that are traveling along the byways of rural America, be sure to watch out for them. I know that they’ll be looking out for you, but those big pieces of equipment oftentimes move very, very slowly, even the ones that don’t have the orange triangle on the back. If you see that triangle, slow down now, don’t wait, because it will be upon you in no time and you don’t want to tangle with it. Thank you so much for paying attention to the farmers on the roadways, and I know that the farmers are paying attention to you.
13:57 Data Centers, a new farm country neighbor
Todd Gleason: Now up next, as technology companies race to meet growing demand for data storage and artificial intelligence, rural communities are increasingly finding themselves at the center of the conversation. Stephanie Hoff with the National Association of Farm Broadcasting has this story.
Stephanie Hoff: The growth of data centers is creating new opportunities in rural America, but it’s also raising questions about land use, infrastructure, and the future of farming. American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Bernt Nelson says those conversations are happening at a time when many farmers are facing significant financial challenges.
Bernt Nelson: Many farms are facing a lot of losses. We see losses over several years. But you also see multiple crops ranging from cotton in the south to corn, wheat, and soybeans in the Midwest. And so these families are facing these decisions, and these decisions could impact the communities around them. When a farmer is offered, you know, several times the value of agricultural land, it’s understandable why they might consider having a conversation about that when we think about this economy.
Stephanie Hoff: Nelson says the economic pressure facing farmers helps explain why some land owners are considering development offers, but he notes agriculture and data centers are often competing for many of the same resources.
Bernt Nelson: Data centers are one of the fastest growing industries in America, and their expansion is happening at a really important and pivotal time for ag and for our rural communities. Ag and data centers use a lot of the same resources, they need the same things. We’re talking about water, we’re talking about electricity, fiber optic for broadband, for technology access, land.
Stephanie Hoff: Nelson says the long-term implications of converting farmland deserve careful consideration because those changes are often permanent.
Bernt Nelson: And if we think about and look at what happened to land over the course of the years, since 1982 we’ve lost about 56 million acres of productive farmland. That’s about the size of Kansas. And this matters, because productive farmland, once it’s taken out of production, is pretty permanent. It rarely goes back in. So, it’s really important that we think about this in terms of food security and the well-being of our communities.
Stephanie Hoff: Nelson emphasizes that data centers are not just reshaping rural landscapes, they also play an increasingly important role in modern agriculture and the broader economy.
Bernt Nelson: Data centers have become critical infrastructure. When we think about it, you know, I used to have a flip phone back when, typing with my thumb sending a text that I was probably charged for. Well now, we’ve got, I’ve got an iPhone in front of me, when I looked at the internet use, it was 630 gigabytes of data. That’s a lot. Ag needs data too. A planter going across the field is using stored data to plant a seed, put fertilizer down at the exact amounts it’s needed, exactly where it needs to be. And this leads to more production and more efficiency. This needs data storage.
Stephanie Hoff: American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Bernt Nelson along with us, he says farmers and local leaders will need to balance economic development with the long-term future of agricultural production as demand for data and land increases. I’m Stephanie Hoff reporting.
17:57 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
Todd Gleason: And I’m Todd Gleason here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. You’re listening to the Closing Market Report on this Monday afternoon. Find us online at willag.org. Now up next the weather forecast, we’re joined by Mark Russo from EverStream Analytics. Hello there Mark, thanks for being with us today.
Mark Russo: Hello there Todd, thanks for having me.
Todd Gleason: Let’s start with the corn belt, beautiful weather over the weekend. Looks like it’s going to be wide open, is that really the case for producers across the Midwest wanting to get harvest started, then there are some follow-ups of course related to how quickly they might be able to get into the field based on temperatures and whether or not the moisture can get away from the soils or not.
Mark Russo: Well Todd, yeah, this dry pattern that evolved across the entire Midwest late last week and over the weekend, it is going to remain in place over the next few weeks, meaning a generally drier bias and obviously much different from this exceptionally wet pattern that was in place throughout September. Now this week is totally dry across virtually the entire Midwest. Next week there will be some rain activity, but certainly no sign of getting back into any kind of wet pattern. And that combined with temperatures which will be generally warmer biased over the next few weeks, that will favor dry down and get farmers back into the fields here from a harvesting standpoint, and initiate harvesting across the wet western belt.
Todd Gleason: You keep mentioning the next few weeks. How long do you expect this to go on?
Mark Russo: We do expect this drier than normal pattern to be in place throughout the end of October. Now again this week looks to be the driest. The following two weeks look to feature some rain activity, but still having a below average rainfall total scenario across much of the Midwest. So we think again October overall again much, much different than what we saw this past month in September.
Todd Gleason: How out of the ordinary might temperatures be through that timeframe?
Mark Russo: Well temperatures, with the warmer bias expected again not only the next two weeks but even the final weeks of October as well, temperatures across the western belt running about three to four degrees Fahrenheit above average. The eastern corn belt, more variability in temperatures. You know we saw some of that here in recent days and we see more temperature variability as we go through the next couple of weeks. But no sign of any turn to unusually cool weather for any extended period of time and we think October will register as a kind of close to ten-year normal month in the eastern belt.
Todd Gleason: We often think of the month of November as gray and wet in the Midwest. Will that be the case?
Mark Russo: Oh good question, and a tough question to answer right now. That is certainly climatology, but one thing that we’re keeping an eye on is if this pattern that we’re seeing in October, if it does have some legs to it and it’s not really being influenced much by the spinning up of the polar vortex in any significant way, then yeah, that would continue the generally warmer and drier bias into November. But if we see the polar vortex beginning to become highly unstable and starting to send cooler air masses into the US, and again with our El Nino and a lot of the moisture associated with that could begin flowing up in, so that’s also a risk. So right now we kind of lean more towards climatology, but certainly some things to watch that would steer us in either direction next month.
Todd Gleason: What’s your assessment of the early growing season in South America?
Mark Russo: Overall South America is pretty good here with the onset of summer crop planting. That’s especially the case in center west Brazil, which again that’s the area that can at times have some drier conditions at this time of year or a slow pickup of rain activity or the start of the rainy season, but they’ve gotten good rain so far and that looks to continue. Argentina has had favorable weather and that looks to continue here much of October. The only kind of hitch in things right now, the only risk is in southern Brazil, and there’s no dryness concerns there, but some increasing concerns from a wetness standpoint as that area has been wetter than normal in recent weeks and looks to stay that way much of the remainder of October. And that could lead to some planting delays there.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much, I appreciate it.
Mark Russo: You’re welcome Todd.
Todd Gleason: That’s Mark Russo, he is with EverStream Analytics, joined us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media online on demand at willag.org. There you’ll find our daily programming to listen to anytime you’d like, and you’ll also find information from the agricultural economists, the crop scientists and the animal scientists right here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason.
The October 5, 2026 edition of the Closing Market Report opens with commodity market settlements before agricultural economist Ed Usset discusses harvest rain delays, localized spikes in soybean basis bids, and grain marketing strategies ahead of the upcoming USDA WASDE report. The broadcast then examines the rapid expansion of data centers into rural America with American Farm Bureau Federation economist Bernt Nelson, addressing the balance between high financial offers for landowners, the permanent loss of productive farmland, and agriculture's increasing dependence on data storage for precision farming. Concluding the program, EverStream Analytics meteorologist Mark Russo delivers the weather outlook, forecasting a shift to warmer and drier conditions across the Midwest to aid harvest progress through late October, alongside favorable early planting conditions across South America despite planting delays in wet southern Brazil.
02:03 Ag Markets with Ed Usset, University of Minnesota
13:57 Data Centers, a new farm country neighbor
17:57 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
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Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the fifth day of October 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Ed Usset, agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota. We’ll hear about data centers across the United States from the American Farm Bureau Federation, Stephanie Hoff from NAFB has details, and then we’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast. We’ll be joined as usual on a Monday by Mark Russo from EverStream Analytics. Right here on the Closing Market Report, find us online, on-demand, anytime you’d like to listen. You can do that at willag.org. That’s w-i-l-l-a-g.org.
announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: December corn for the day settled at $4.97 and a quarter, down a half cent. The March at $5.11 and a half, unchanged. And May futures $5.18 and a half cents, unchanged. November beans $12.80 and three quarters, up two and a half cents. January $12.97 and a half, that finished three cents higher. And the March soybeans $13.08 even, up three and a quarter. Bean meal futures down 40 cents. The bean oil in the lead, 73 cents higher. Wheat futures soft red December at $6.92 and a quarter, up nine and a quarter cents. The hard red December at $7.42 and a quarter, up seven. Live cattle futures in Chicago down $1.50. Feeder cattle off $1.02 and a half cents. And lean hogs up 82 and a half cents for the day. Crude oil at $89.87 a barrel, down $1.24. Diesel fuel or heating oil is about a nickel and two tenths higher at $4.55 and two tenths of a cent per gallon. And the wholesale price of gasoline at this hour around five and eight tenths of a cent lower at $3.25 and four tenths of a cent.
02:03 Ag Markets with Ed Usset, University of Minnesota
Todd Gleason: We’re now joined by Ed Usset, agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota. Hi Ed, thanks for being with us again.
Ed Usset: Hey, thanks for having me.
Todd Gleason: Let’s talk about soybeans to begin with. The further north and the further west you go, the more likely that you have a basis probably that still remains maybe today at an over. I think what Joe Jansen has said, I know because I talked to him last week, was that if you’re in one of those areas and you missed it because you couldn’t get soybeans to that particular processor, not really your fault and not something you should put in the back of your mind that you just missed it. It’s something they couldn’t manage and that you couldn’t manage, and so not to worry about it. However, there probably remain some basis levels that are like that. How unusual is that this late in the game?
Ed Usset: Well, it’s unusual. It’s a very event-specific bump in the basis, that is, we’ve got these rains that have delayed the harvest. You’ve got a lot of buyers, buyers at these soybean plants who three, four weeks ago, you’re coming into harvest and you’re like, ‘Hey, absolutely minimize your ownership because the cheaper beans are coming in in a matter of a couple of weeks.’ So they run their stocks down to the bare minimum. And then here comes the rain delays. Now I used to be a buyer of wheat for flour mills, and I can tell you Todd that buyers live by two rules. And rule number one is you will never, ever run your plant—be it your flour mill, your ethanol plant, your soybean crushing facilities—you will never, ever run us out of raw material. Soybeans, wheat, and corn, that’s your last day on the job. Rule number two is if rain delays slow the harvest and beans are hard to find, or the quality is poor, or the price is high, refer back to rule number one for guidance. They got to get the soybeans. And you know, so here I saw a couple of plants in Iowa at a dollar over posted, a dollar over the November contract. Several Minnesota plants at 50 over the November contract. And when you see the basis bid that high, if you give them a call and you’ve got a serious number of bushels, you know, 50,000, 100,000, you might even do better. Okay, because they need soybeans. And this will end as soon as we dry up, and it looks like this week is going to improve. As soon as it dries up enough for producers to get in the field and start harvesting, that basis is going to disappear very quickly. Take advantage of it if you have the option to do so. If you have it. I contacted our own research and outlook centers at the U of M and I don’t know what they have or what the possibility is, and they aren’t necessarily close to those plants, but I said, you know, if you have beans and you can get a truck, you might take a look at that.
Todd Gleason: That’s the kind of thing that producers who have the opportunity can still manage, most will not have that opportunity. Now let’s talk about really what we think this crop looks like. We have the grain stocks that has been completed for the end of the last marketing year. Let’s begin there because those numbers roll right into the October WASDE world ag supply demand and estimates. How do you view the numbers?
Ed Usset: Well, I think the Friday report’s going to be really interesting. We have some things to figure out. You know, we had stocks much bigger. We have export issues, good, bad and indifferent going on. You know, there’s just a common agreement that the feed and residual in corn’s got to go lower. But we’re also worried—at the same time worried, we’re also sort of pondering—well, are they going to make this crop bigger or smaller with the yield? I hear you saying that, or I heard you saying that maybe the soybean crop might even get bigger. And I can’t help but look at all this rain and the crop delays, and I’m not sure how that impacts yields, but I could see it going lower too.
Todd Gleason: Absolutely. Both ways is possible. And so the question is, do you think that this particular report will have enough change to change the direction or not of this marketplace?
Ed Usset: Well I thought, after being so wrong on my call on these markets back in early August when I said, ‘Yeah we’re gonna revisit the June lows,’ and that wasn’t even close, we hit a record August. But I did feel that we’re now in a realizing market, that is, we gotta see what’s actually coming in from harvest and of course that story’s been delayed. But the market’s not gonna go higher until we actually see what we’re getting. The proof of a poor crop or proof of a good crop. And that’s what we’ve been doing. We’ve been wallowing sideways in the world of soybeans, we had a big drop in corn. This report I am going to pay very close attention to, because if they had two bushels either way on the corn market yield, could have a big impact. The soybean yield, a bushel either way could have a big impact.
Todd Gleason: Given that, you have to deal year in and year out with that which goes across the scale, that which is stored, or even if you do use storage, most don’t think about not using storage I would guess. However, what are your considerations?
Ed Usset: Well, I’m seeing a decent carry in the corn market. You know, you look December to May spread of about 22 cents this morning. That’s going to be hard for me to pass up if I’ve got storage and the ability to hedge in some way. That’s going to be hard to pass up. You want some—okay, everyone likes some unpriced bushels in the bin. We like that a little too much. I won’t argue with that, but I’m going to hedge some of that corn too. Soybeans, a lot of people are going to put it in the bin and hope for something better in the spring. Certainly a possibility, but put some numbers on it. Get an exit strategy, how much more are you looking for, you know, 50 cents higher than harvest price, a buck higher, put some numbers on it. And while you’re at it, put a number on where you’ll throw the towel in if things go the opposite direction, if they go south. So, but the carry in soybeans is not big enough to warrant selling the carry as you would in corn. You’re gonna have to take a risk with it. But think hard about what number you’re looking for ahead.
Todd Gleason: Soybeans almost says to you that it is a weather story in Brazil if things are going to go higher, I think maybe?
Ed Usset: I think so. But they’re talking about this super El Nino. I’ve heard more about super El Ninos than I… he ought to be a comic book character is what I think. But it’s interesting, and a lot of, ‘oh this could happen, that could happen,’ and you know what, I gotta see it happen.
Todd Gleason: Well here in Illinois we could get Captain Cornelius from the Illinois Corn Growers Association together with Super El Nino even for this year to see how that battle actually goes I suppose.
Ed Usset: I’ve got a job for you, Todd. In the next few days, go to AI and have outfits designed for Super El Nino and Captain Cornelius.
Todd Gleason: Well Captain Cornelius is a character, so that is already a generated character so that one I won’t deal with, but we can work on Super El Nino and see what that comes up with. Anything else that you’re watching that we really need to take a look at?
Ed Usset: No. Just a great disappointment in the wheat market, which has been just a huge disappointment in recent weeks. Got a little life in it today, but it speaks to this, you know, we talk about the problems, the war between Russia and Ukraine, the disruption of the wheat trade, and the only thing that has not resulted from that is an export sale out of the US. So we’re on the defensive.
Todd Gleason: Because you brought those up I do have a couple of other questions, both related to corn and soybeans as energy markets. How much of this marketplace do you suppose remains in the energy side as a percentage for corn and soybeans price, or something along those lines? And if it actually is settled, or if as the president says after the elections the midterms are complete that he will go back to war with Iran?
Ed Usset: The corn market, with the development of the ethanol industry some 15 to 20 years ago, you know, a third of our corn goes to ethanol now, to ethanol production. And energy is a big driver of that, and remains a big one. And we know the story in soybeans. Soybean oil is going to renewable diesel, the trend is up, strongly higher. So you cannot talk about corn and soybean prices without bringing the world energy market and prices into the discussion.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. We appreciate it. We’ll talk with you again next month.
Ed Usset: Thank you Todd. Take care.
Todd Gleason: You too. That’s Ed Usset, he is an agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota. The theme music for the Closing Market Report is written, produced, performed and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason, who today I know is in the field harvesting like many of those listening to our program. If you happen to be one of those folks that are traveling along the byways of rural America, be sure to watch out for them. I know that they’ll be looking out for you, but those big pieces of equipment oftentimes move very, very slowly, even the ones that don’t have the orange triangle on the back. If you see that triangle, slow down now, don’t wait, because it will be upon you in no time and you don’t want to tangle with it. Thank you so much for paying attention to the farmers on the roadways, and I know that the farmers are paying attention to you.
13:57 Data Centers, a new farm country neighbor
Todd Gleason: Now up next, as technology companies race to meet growing demand for data storage and artificial intelligence, rural communities are increasingly finding themselves at the center of the conversation. Stephanie Hoff with the National Association of Farm Broadcasting has this story.
Stephanie Hoff: The growth of data centers is creating new opportunities in rural America, but it’s also raising questions about land use, infrastructure, and the future of farming. American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Bernt Nelson says those conversations are happening at a time when many farmers are facing significant financial challenges.
Bernt Nelson: Many farms are facing a lot of losses. We see losses over several years. But you also see multiple crops ranging from cotton in the south to corn, wheat, and soybeans in the Midwest. And so these families are facing these decisions, and these decisions could impact the communities around them. When a farmer is offered, you know, several times the value of agricultural land, it’s understandable why they might consider having a conversation about that when we think about this economy.
Stephanie Hoff: Nelson says the economic pressure facing farmers helps explain why some land owners are considering development offers, but he notes agriculture and data centers are often competing for many of the same resources.
Bernt Nelson: Data centers are one of the fastest growing industries in America, and their expansion is happening at a really important and pivotal time for ag and for our rural communities. Ag and data centers use a lot of the same resources, they need the same things. We’re talking about water, we’re talking about electricity, fiber optic for broadband, for technology access, land.
Stephanie Hoff: Nelson says the long-term implications of converting farmland deserve careful consideration because those changes are often permanent.
Bernt Nelson: And if we think about and look at what happened to land over the course of the years, since 1982 we’ve lost about 56 million acres of productive farmland. That’s about the size of Kansas. And this matters, because productive farmland, once it’s taken out of production, is pretty permanent. It rarely goes back in. So, it’s really important that we think about this in terms of food security and the well-being of our communities.
Stephanie Hoff: Nelson emphasizes that data centers are not just reshaping rural landscapes, they also play an increasingly important role in modern agriculture and the broader economy.
Bernt Nelson: Data centers have become critical infrastructure. When we think about it, you know, I used to have a flip phone back when, typing with my thumb sending a text that I was probably charged for. Well now, we’ve got, I’ve got an iPhone in front of me, when I looked at the internet use, it was 630 gigabytes of data. That’s a lot. Ag needs data too. A planter going across the field is using stored data to plant a seed, put fertilizer down at the exact amounts it’s needed, exactly where it needs to be. And this leads to more production and more efficiency. This needs data storage.
Stephanie Hoff: American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Bernt Nelson along with us, he says farmers and local leaders will need to balance economic development with the long-term future of agricultural production as demand for data and land increases. I’m Stephanie Hoff reporting.
17:57 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics
Todd Gleason: And I’m Todd Gleason here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. You’re listening to the Closing Market Report on this Monday afternoon. Find us online at willag.org. Now up next the weather forecast, we’re joined by Mark Russo from EverStream Analytics. Hello there Mark, thanks for being with us today.
Mark Russo: Hello there Todd, thanks for having me.
Todd Gleason: Let’s start with the corn belt, beautiful weather over the weekend. Looks like it’s going to be wide open, is that really the case for producers across the Midwest wanting to get harvest started, then there are some follow-ups of course related to how quickly they might be able to get into the field based on temperatures and whether or not the moisture can get away from the soils or not.
Mark Russo: Well Todd, yeah, this dry pattern that evolved across the entire Midwest late last week and over the weekend, it is going to remain in place over the next few weeks, meaning a generally drier bias and obviously much different from this exceptionally wet pattern that was in place throughout September. Now this week is totally dry across virtually the entire Midwest. Next week there will be some rain activity, but certainly no sign of getting back into any kind of wet pattern. And that combined with temperatures which will be generally warmer biased over the next few weeks, that will favor dry down and get farmers back into the fields here from a harvesting standpoint, and initiate harvesting across the wet western belt.
Todd Gleason: You keep mentioning the next few weeks. How long do you expect this to go on?
Mark Russo: We do expect this drier than normal pattern to be in place throughout the end of October. Now again this week looks to be the driest. The following two weeks look to feature some rain activity, but still having a below average rainfall total scenario across much of the Midwest. So we think again October overall again much, much different than what we saw this past month in September.
Todd Gleason: How out of the ordinary might temperatures be through that timeframe?
Mark Russo: Well temperatures, with the warmer bias expected again not only the next two weeks but even the final weeks of October as well, temperatures across the western belt running about three to four degrees Fahrenheit above average. The eastern corn belt, more variability in temperatures. You know we saw some of that here in recent days and we see more temperature variability as we go through the next couple of weeks. But no sign of any turn to unusually cool weather for any extended period of time and we think October will register as a kind of close to ten-year normal month in the eastern belt.
Todd Gleason: We often think of the month of November as gray and wet in the Midwest. Will that be the case?
Mark Russo: Oh good question, and a tough question to answer right now. That is certainly climatology, but one thing that we’re keeping an eye on is if this pattern that we’re seeing in October, if it does have some legs to it and it’s not really being influenced much by the spinning up of the polar vortex in any significant way, then yeah, that would continue the generally warmer and drier bias into November. But if we see the polar vortex beginning to become highly unstable and starting to send cooler air masses into the US, and again with our El Nino and a lot of the moisture associated with that could begin flowing up in, so that’s also a risk. So right now we kind of lean more towards climatology, but certainly some things to watch that would steer us in either direction next month.
Todd Gleason: What’s your assessment of the early growing season in South America?
Mark Russo: Overall South America is pretty good here with the onset of summer crop planting. That’s especially the case in center west Brazil, which again that’s the area that can at times have some drier conditions at this time of year or a slow pickup of rain activity or the start of the rainy season, but they’ve gotten good rain so far and that looks to continue. Argentina has had favorable weather and that looks to continue here much of October. The only kind of hitch in things right now, the only risk is in southern Brazil, and there’s no dryness concerns there, but some increasing concerns from a wetness standpoint as that area has been wetter than normal in recent weeks and looks to stay that way much of the remainder of October. And that could lead to some planting delays there.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much, I appreciate it.
Mark Russo: You’re welcome Todd.
Todd Gleason: That’s Mark Russo, he is with EverStream Analytics, joined us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media online on demand at willag.org. There you’ll find our daily programming to listen to anytime you’d like, and you’ll also find information from the agricultural economists, the crop scientists and the animal scientists right here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason.