Oct 12 | Closing Market Report

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The October 12, 2026, edition of the *Closing Market Report* opens with closing commodity settlement prices for corn, soybeans, wheat, livestock, and energy. Host Todd Gleason discusses recent USDA grain stocks and crop production reports with North Dakota State University Extension agricultural economist Frayne Olson, examining how harvest progress, feed and residual calculations, yield adjustments in Plains states, export pace, and the increased carry-in are impacting corn marketing decisions. In agricultural news, beef industry consultant Nevil Speer analyzes why the administration’s tariff-free foreign beef import quota has failed to significantly move retail ground beef prices, while StoneX vice president Josh Linville reviews international fertilizer supply disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East. The broadcast concludes with regional weather outlooks for key growing areas across the U.S. Corn Belt and Brazil.

02:11 Commodity Market Discussion with Frayne Olson, North Dakota State University

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Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 12th day of October 2026.

Todd Gleason: I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll have a conversation about the commodity markets with Frayne Olson. He’s with North Dakota State University Extension. We’ll take a look back at the grain stocks numbers, how those folded into last week on Friday crop production and USDA figures, and then we’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast. Mark Russo is not here, but I’ll give you an update of what’s taking place in the Corn Belt as well as South America along the way. We’ll hear some agricultural news too on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at WILLAG.org.

Announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: December corn settled at $4.83 a bushel, up three and a quarter today. The March at $4.97 and a quarter, up three. And the May at $5.04 and a half, two and a half higher. November soybeans down four and a quarter. They finished at $12.87 and three-quarters of a cent. January futures at $13.04 and three-quarters a bushel, four lower. And the March contract down four and a quarter. It settled at $13.14 and a half. Bean meal at $368.70, up $3.10. The bean oil, $68.63, 61 cents higher. And wheat futures for the soft red December, a penny and a quarter higher, settlement price there at $6.72 and a quarter cents. The hard red December at $7.15 and a quarter, down four cents on the afternoon. Live cattle futures at 45 cents lower for the day. Feeder cattle off 85 cents, and lean hogs were up 55 cents. Crude oil trading $2.37 higher at $94.22 for the West Texas. The crude Brent at $107.11, up $2.38. The wholesale price of diesel fuel or heating oil at $4.75 and two-tenths, that’s about a penny and four-tenths higher. And the wholesale price of gasoline up a penny at $3.30 and four-tenths of a cent for the day.

02:11 Commodity Market Discussion with Frayne Olson, North Dakota State University
Todd Gleason: Frayne Olson, agricultural economist from North Dakota State University with Extension, now joins us to take up the broader marketplace. Hey, thank you, Frayne, for being with us for the day. I’d like to go through a couple of USDA reports, beginning not with last week’s crop production and WASDE figures, but actually the grain stocks for the September 30 date. That was the last quarterly grain stocks, gave us the final figures, well, relatively speaking, for what was left in the bin for both corn and soybeans at the end of the year. Let’s deal with corn only because there were some pretty dramatic changes there. Can you tell me about those and what you saw in them that got moved forward?

Frayne Olson: Yeah, so when USDA does their balance sheets, number one, it’s got a balance, right? It’s kind of like a financial balance sheet. All the inflows have to equal the outflows. But it also means that whatever is left over from last year gets carried forward into the balance sheet for this year. And that quarterly stocks report, and in particular to this September 1 stocks report, is that transition where we move from old crop into new crop. And we’re going to close out the old crop numbers. And the reason they pick September 1 is, when you’re doing an inventory, if you’re a businessman, if you’re dealing with a warehouse, the easiest time to take an inventory is when those inventories are at the lowest level. When the bin is empty, the bin is empty. It’s a zero, it’s really easy to count. We don’t have to estimate. And whatever we do estimate, if there’s some errors in test weight or etc., they’re going to be relatively small. So in corn in particular, the surprise from the ending stocks numbers was the corn. And for corn, the most difficult number to forecast, or the most difficult number to track on the corn balance sheet, is that feed and residual number. Because there’s so much corn that goes directly from the field to a bin to an animal, and really doesn’t go across a scale to get reported publicly. It’s not like it sold at the elevator and then you buy it back and use it in your hog operation or your dairy operation, right? So for USDA, that feed numbers is always the most difficult. And it’s technically feed and residual. So what’s residual? Well, it’s those bushels we have a hard time really counting. And in some cases, like in Canada, when the Statistics Canada people, they call it spoilage and wastage. So these are the bushels that disappear, it’s like, well, where did that go? We’re not really sure. It’s part of the rounding error. It can be rounding error from estimates, it can be rounding error from our forecasting on yields or consumption. But it’s usually like that spoilage and wastage number. How much just disappeared in the system as we’re using it? Now, when you have a record corn crop, when the production is a record level, as a forecaster, how do you try and project this spoilage and wastage issue? Well, typically you say, well, normally we have X percent that’s lost in the system, and you take that same percentage and you use it moving forward. Well, that makes sense until you get an actual count, and then we have to make some adjustments. So I know there were a lot of analysts and forecasters and people doing these numbers crunching the numbers, trying to put their own estimates together, who said, well, if this is a record crop, we’ll probably have even a little bit extra spoilage and wastage, simply because it comes in so fast. We’re using some non-traditional storage systems. We’re putting more out in bunkers. It’s open to the environment. We’ll likely get some more spoilage and wastage. Well, what happened last year? We had a really nice harvest. Things came off very quickly, came off really nice and dry. Oh, and in addition to that, we had a really good export pace. So we were able to push some of that corn through the system a little faster than we normally would, which means some of that non-traditional odd kind of temporary storage that we use, where you tend to have higher spoilage and wastage numbers, didn’t stay out very long. And so at the end of the day, what happened? We came up with a few more bushels that actually ended up in inventory that we can use than we expected. And that set the stage then for what we see now in October. We knew USDA was going to bring those numbers forward. We were kind of planning those out, and then we got some adjustment in yield as well.

Todd Gleason: So let me see if I can’t summarize that. So the 172 million bushels in the grain stocks report addition to what they thought had been available was largely because we got the crop inside, and it was the estimates all year long during the grain stocks are only estimates, and they were just off until we got to the final one because it was easier to count.

Frayne Olson: Exactly. And again, that’s why we do the inventories. That’s why we do those quarterly stocks reports, and that’s why we have the marketing year begin and end on a particular date. It is because we take that inventory just before harvest so that again we try and get as accurate as possible on saying how much do we have from last year left over, and then we add in production, and we start the process all over again.

Todd Gleason: Okay, now we’ve rolled them forward. Last Friday, had our crop production report, there was a big change in yield. We can talk about that. But then all those numbers get put into the balance sheet. What did you find of most interest?

Frayne Olson: Okay. So first, let’s talk about expectations. The futures market in particular is very good about saying, based on my analysis, what do I expect the number to be? And the prices going into any kind of report are based upon what the market was expecting to see, not necessarily the number that we had last month. So what was the general expectation? We were going to have a slight cut in yields. That was really the mentality, that was the thought process coming into the report. And guess what happened? The yield went up just a little bit, which is not what we expected. And in my opinion, the markets, futures in particular, tend to overreact and over-respond. We saw some of that kind of midday correction. We did end down, not quite as big as what we got when the numbers first came out. So again, there’s this shock value. So where did the extra bushels come from? And again, when you compare the total production numbers by state from what we got last report in September and what we got this time in October, most of the increases, when you look at where the extra bushels came from, was essentially in the—what I call the transition areas. It was these areas in particular in the Plains states, all the way from Texas, north into North Dakota, which have been really on the dry side all year long. And when they did the numbers, when they looked at not only the farmer estimates, when they looked at the satellite imagery, but more importantly when we get these objective yield numbers coming in, the yields were a little bit better. And so which states picked up some additional production? Well, it went all the way from Texas, to Kansas, to Nebraska—which was one of the bigger ones, bigger increases from last month to this month. We got some increase in South Dakota. We got increase in North Dakota. We got some in Michigan. We got some in Wisconsin. So these are the areas where we have, like I know in North Dakota, we have tremendous variability in yields this year. We’re going to have some fields that are going to go near normal and others that are going to be really, really poor. And so when you’re estimating yields where you have this huge variability from field to field to field, it gets very difficult. So it doesn’t look like the dry weather impacted things as much as we were expecting in September. We did get some rain showers even up here in North Dakota in mid to late September, and I think some of that just protected and saved some of the yield that we had.

Todd Gleason: Given all of that. Farmers were surprised, the market reacted, but pretty much appears given today’s action that it took it in, that it didn’t surprise it as much maybe as we thought it had. Where do markets go from here and how do we take this very large corn crop, and look forward with it at this point? Because right now it appears that we’re going to have a very nice fall kind of like we did last year.

Frayne Olson: Yeah, yes, so far it looks like harvest is progressing really nice. Again, there are, I realize I’m making a very big general statement and there are some areas that are not going to have as much fun with harvest this year, but in general it looks like we’re on a really good pace. My understanding is, again, things are coming out of the field in really good condition. We don’t have big moisture problems. So how do we move forward? Again, USDA has already given us their best guess, their best forecast or estimates on the consumption numbers. And as usual, the one thing that I look to, that’s again from a forecasting perspective, that’s the most difficult to estimate, is the exports number. Now, that gets very complicated. There’s a lot of moving parts in the export world. As we look forward, I’m going to start looking for, coming into harvest now, what are our export sales numbers? Now, the sales numbers are different than the export inspections. Inspections means that we’ve inspected it, it’s ready to leave the country. Export sales numbers are contracts that have been signed for delivery sometime in the future. And I think on this retracement now, I think on this downturn in corn prices, I think there’s going to be some additional announcements. I think we’re going to see some of these international buyers step in and say, you know, I am going to start making some purchases out of the US. Some of those are going to be regular purchases, some of them may be some insurance purchases. We are just now starting to plant some of the crop in South America, in particular Brazil. Looks like soybean plantings are a little bit ahead of normal pace, which tends to lean towards, again, potential higher yields. But we’ve got this super El Niño building, and what that will mean at the end of the day for yields out of South America and our major competitor is yet to be seen. So if I’m a buyer in the international market, and I’m worried about supply chains, I’m worried about supply disruptions, I might just buy a little bit extra to make sure that I have some coverage. So watching that export pace. The export market tends to be our shock absorber. If we have a really, really big crop, we try and work really hard to push it into the export market. If we have a really, really tight crop, prices rise to a point where export sales start to drop off pretty quickly. So the countries I’m looking at, very specific. Mexico is our number one buyer, and Mexican export sales for last year really helped us out. The other one that I’m watching is the potential for some additional export sales into China. And it’s not that China necessarily needs a whole bunch more corn, but they have made a commitment, at least through what we’re hearing from the US side of the ledger, to buy an additional $17 billion of US ag products. Now, last time it was a Phase One agreement, was the only two times that China has been above that $17 billion number, if you exclude soybeans, was during that Phase One agreement. So I’m using that as my reference point. And the big winner in the Phase One agreement was corn. We saw an increase in the dollar volume of purchases for a lot of US ag products, including some meats. You know, there was a lot of things the Chinese did come in and buy more of, but the big winner was really corn and sorghum at the end of the day. So we’ll wait to see. If China is committed to that dollar volume of purchases, corn is one of those easy ones where you can buy some volume. If you get a good deal on it, they can put it into government-owned reserves and manage it through their system.

Todd Gleason: What does the carry in the system tell you about pricing corn at this point?

Frayne Olson: So when I look back historically, and looking at price volatility and where do we see these pricing points, the 10% carryover number is kind of a magic number. If we get below 10%, the market starts to get pretty nervous. It’s like, well, we’ve got some supplies, but we’re a little bit nervous and wiggly. And the further we get down below 10%, the more nervous the market gets. If we have more than 10%, the market gets more comfortable. It’s like, well, we’ve got a little bit of a buffer. If there are some things we don’t see coming or if there’s some challenges going on, you know, we don’t have to get too bent out of shape. And guess what? We’re right kind of at that 10% number. So we’re right at this, what we call an inflection point. And that’s why one of the reasons again I think on Friday we got that really sharp drop. It’s like, well, man, if this is really true, we’re not going to be as tight on the corn supplies as we first thought. We don’t have to ration quite as hard on prices to make sure that we have a comfortable level of carryover stocks. My point is, this is, in my opinion, we’re kind of in that funny in-between market, where the market doesn’t really know, should we start rationing? Are we worried about having tighter supplies, we have to crank the prices up to start rationing use, or are we in that point where, yeah, we’re pretty comfortable, we can afford to have prices slip a little bit and see if we can push some more of this product through the supply chain.

Todd Gleason: Thank you very much. We’ll talk with you again soon.

Frayne Olson: All right, thank you. It’s always a pleasure to visit.

Todd Gleason: Frayne Olson is an Extension agricultural economist located on campus at North Dakota State University in Fargo. Now up next, let’s turn our attention to the agricultural news for the day. We’ll start with a nothingburger. The administration’s plan to import 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free foreign-grown beef seems that it’s not having the anticipated impact. Nevill Speer, a beef industry consultant, has been talking about how the White House plan is working in US grocery stores.

Nevil Speer: Looks like, from initial data, September only about 30,000 metric tons made it. So only a third of the third initial tranche ultimately ended up here. And I think what’s probably interesting, the question would be, was there some product that would have come to the United States that actually headed the other way? Clearly, we haven’t flooded the market, which was the concern with beef imports. And by the way, at the end of the day, those were really lean trimmings, you know, to create hamburger. So we also have not moved the price of hamburger much either.

Todd Gleason: Nevill Speer again is a beef industry consultant from Bowling Green, Kentucky. The move was made, he says, with the specific goal of lowering beef prices at the grocery store.

Nevil Speer: We just know that grocery store prices don’t move that quickly one way or the other, and you just can’t have that kind of an impact. And trying to change the beef supply chain and move it is like turning a Titanic. It just doesn’t happen that way. I don’t think consumers have seen one bit of difference. And then I would also say separately, they’re not focused right now on the price of hamburger. They’re looking at the prices of gasoline and diesel every single day.

Todd Gleason: Speer calls the whole thing a nothingburger.

Nevil Speer: It really is a nothingburger, and I get it, producers get really emotional about it, and I agree with them 100%, and I wrote about it, right? It’s not the imports, it’s the interference. But let’s all take a breath a little bit and understand this is a huge business. At the end of the day, 300,000 metric tons isn’t that much. I wrote about it that it’s unlikely all of it would come, and that’s kind of how it looks like it’s playing out. And so, yes, it was a nothingburger or just kind of a big talking point for them to flash around on social media and say, look what we’re doing for consumers.

Todd Gleason: That’s Nevil Speer. He is a consultant from Bowling Green, Kentucky, and, by the way, has spoken at the Dixon Springs Annual Beef Outlook meeting hosted by University of Illinois. He came to us courtesy of Ron Hayes at the Radio Oklahoma Network. Now let’s turn our attention to Josh Linville, courtesy of Caesar Delgado from Ottawa, Illinois, another colleague of mine in the NAFB. He spoke with the vice president of fertilizer, who says there’s a lot of pressure on world supplies right now.

Josh Linville: Yeah, it’s a big deal. Just like it has been since February 28th. I mean, you sit there and you just take a look at it, just a snapshot of the marketplace. Three of the world’s biggest urea exporters: Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, are behind the strait. Same three big anhydrous exporters. Saudi Arabia is a major phosphate exporter out there. So just on the surface, just looking at those three, that’s a massive loss. And with the attack that went on this weekend, it doesn’t look like it’s improving anytime soon. But the problem is, it’s always the devil’s in the details, right? It’s the fact that gas, so much gas comes from that body of water, and that gas goes to feed nitrogen production facilities around the world that help support or hurt global gas prices around the world. That’s why we’ve seen a little bit of European production go down.

Todd Gleason: Josh Linville is the vice president of fertilizer for StoneX out of Kansas City, Missouri. Just a reminder that the bulk of anhydrous ammonia or nitrogen supplies made available in the United States are produced in the United States, but pricing is determined by the world marketplace and availability of anhydrous and nitrogen supplies across the whole of the globe, and that has been constrained sharply by the war in Iran. That’s a look at today’s agricultural news. Mark Russo is away, so we’ll take a quick look at some of the growing regions across the United States in the Corn Belt. We’ll start with Mankato to represent Minnesota where today they’ll have a high of 86, partly sunny skies. The skies will stay partly sunny through the rest of the week, though tomorrow the high is just 68 there. Wednesday 64, and a 55% chance of light rainfall on Thursday, a 64-degree temperature. In Des Moines, Iowa, things substantially different, at least through the next couple of days. 87 today, partly sunny. A chance of light rain showers tomorrow, 80 degrees, and then their temperatures fall. 69, a 25% chance of rain on Wednesday. An 80% chance of rainfall on Thursday and 68 degrees. In Springfield, Illinois, today a high of 93, tomorrow 95, sunny skies to mostly sunny skies both days. Things cool down Wednesday to 82, with a 90% chance of moderate rain and some thunderstorms. Thursday an 85% chance of light rain showers and thunderstorms and 78 degrees. Moving to South America, we’ll start with Brasilia, that’s the capital of Brazil, and in the soybean growing regions of the center-west. 94 today, mostly cloudy. Tomorrow partly cloudy, 95. They’ll get rainfall probably on Wednesday, 20% chance, 98 for the high. Thursday a 60% chance of rain and 91. They’ll have an 80% chance of scattered showers on Friday and 83 degrees. That’s a quick look at the weather forecast for some of the growing regions in North and South America. You’ve been listening to the Closing Market Report on this Monday afternoon. If you’re in the field, stay safe this afternoon. If you’re traveling the back roads of rural America, watch out for those slow-moving vehicles. I know that the farmers and the folks that are working with them are watching out for you, and they’ll need you to look out for them too. I’m University of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.