Sep 04 | Closing Market Report

cmr260904

The September 4, 2026, edition of the *Closing Market Report*, hosted by Todd Gleason on Illinois Public Media, reviews commodity market movements, agricultural news, and regional weather patterns heading into the Labor Day weekend. Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics discusses softer corn, soybean, and wheat trade amid an accelerating early Midwest harvest, while evaluating upcoming USDA crop production estimates, geopolitical developments in the Black Sea and Middle East, and potential volatility surrounding U.S.-China relations. In agricultural news, Gleason covers the 2026 National Cover Crop Report showing expanded acreage among growers, followed by USDA research entomologist Alex Arp detailing "Novafly"—a new genetic strain engineered to eliminate female embryos and optimize sterile male production for New World screwworm eradication. Concluding the broadcast, Nutrien Ag Solutions meteorologist Eric Snodgrass outlines persistent late-summer heat and drought stress across the Corn Belt and Western United States, sluggish Atlantic hurricane activity linked to El Niño, and irregular rainfall patterns threatening early soybean planting across South America's Center West.

00:56 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics
08:38 WILLAg News | Cover Crop Usage Up & a New Way to Control NWS
11:34 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag Solutions

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Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the fourth day of September 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Mike Zuzolo—he’s at globalcommresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. I’ll update you on the latest agricultural news for the day, and then we’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast. Eric Snodgrass will join us from Nutrien Ag Solutions as we wrap up this Friday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. And if you can stay with us for the whole of the hour today, you’ll hear all of our Commodity Week program. Otherwise, it is up online at willag.org right now, and many of these radio stations will carry it over the weekend.

In Chicago, corn futures finished four lower for the afternoon, soybeans down about six cents, and wheat was off 20 for the day.

Mike Zuzolo, globalcommresearch.com, out of Atchison, Kansas, now joins us. He is traveling across the great state of Illinois, has been through Missouri, I assume you came across 136, and you’re now near where, Jacksonville or thereabouts?

00:56 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics

Mike Zuzolo: Yeah, Morgan County, Todd. And you know, it’s interesting, I had several comments before I left the office this morning, doing this Labor Day crop tour/family reunion back in Indiana, and I’m just amazed at how fast the crop is drawing drawing down. And ever since I hit Pittsfield, I’ve seen quite a few combines rolling and just crossed over Jacksonville, as you say, at the Bartlett plant, and trucks rolling in there, a lot of harvest going on. So it kind of felt like a harvest Friday when I looked at the prices mid-session. So I think that might be part of why the markets were a little bit softer here as we closed out the week on the corn side especially.

Todd Gleason: Well, a harvest Friday, the end of summer. I looked at the monthly soft red winter wheat chart and the lead option. It looked like the party was over almost. Maybe I don’t read charts very well, but I don’t know, what do you think?

Mike Zuzolo: No, you know, you speak my language very well because the wheat and the crude oil are key. Now look, we’re in the month of September. We we figured there was going to be some headwinds, especially if the harvest started to ramp up, and especially given that we’ve got another crop report coming and the US-China trip—the Chinese trip coming over here at the end of the month. So there’s a lot more demand-related issues that are going to need to be supported by the wheat and the crude oil. And we had some of that earlier in the week, but to your point, as we closed out the week, as we got to midweek and and saw that maybe Russia was looking at talking about peace with Turkey as an intermediary on Wednesday and and talking to the United States. Witkoff and Kushner supposedly going to be going over to Russia in the not-too-distant future. There was a dynamic shift in the wheat, and it was interesting also you bring this up because the European wheat price and the US wheat price at the futures are now par with one another. So we go into the holiday with vulnerable daily corn and bean charts, and we’ve got a real vulnerable wheat market that should be leading this market higher. And so it’s really important now that we see some follow-through to the upside when we come back from the holiday.

Todd Gleason: We’ll be watching for that on Monday night into Tuesday as trade resumes after the Labor Day holiday. And then, as you mentioned, on Friday of next week, the 11th, USDA will release its September crop production report. It will have objective yield survey numbers in it. Those should be pretty good given how far along the crop seems to be and what you’re seeing in Illinois, and we’ve heard about in Indiana as well.

Mike Zuzolo: Yeah, I agree. And I think I’m not trying to be a a price bear, as you would call it, but I do think that we are in September. And one of the things that, you know, with this crop report coming out with the objective yields and the soybean rally that we’ve seen, I think, yeah, part of it is because China’s still buying. But I think also part of it, we saw that bean-corn spread kind of turn on this week, and I think that was directly related to those crop conditions falling pretty dramatically for soybeans. Beans almost look like corn did about three or four weeks ago. So I would say at this stage of the game, at the price levels we’ve gotten up to with September futures going off the board next week and crossing through the $13 threshold earlier in the week, then we’ve got some yield reduction priced in, not just in the corn, but also in the soybeans. And so, again, I think this adds to the another layer to the idea of why we would need the support, the geopolitical support of the wheat and the crude oil. And and we’ve got enough out there between what Iran and the United States started to do to one another again this week, and also the unbelievably intense bombing. You know, ADM even had a report that they had lost an elevator at the Port of Odessa back in mid-August from some extra heavy bombing. So we’ve got some issues out there still the market could trade if they so choose to do so.

Todd Gleason: I did read through Putin’s comments this week about trying to get things settled, and it sounded more as if he really wanted to use that to stop some of the bombing that was taking place on the ports of the Black Sea for for Russia export of wheat more than anything else. Or at least that’s the way I took it, but I’m cynical about those sorts of things. So we’ll see how that plays out. I am interested to hear if you’ve heard or sussed out anything more from President Xi’s upcoming visit and what that might mean. One of the things I ran across is that the Chinese government has not actually confirmed that he will be here the 23rd, 4th, and 5th of September. I don’t know whether that means anything or not.

Mike Zuzolo: Yeah, I think typically they won’t say much until right up against the the time of these travels. So if we don’t hear anything by the end of next week, that would start to concern me. I heard this today before the close that he is bringing supposedly a large delegation, Chinese business CEOs, reversing and doing what President Trump did when he went to China back this spring. I would also think at this point, Todd, that Jamieson Greer was on a news program Thursday night, and he was very upbeat and optimistic about the US-China trade relationship, that both parties want stability. And so I was surprised at how upbeat he was. He was actually more upbeat about China than he was about Canada. And I still have to watch Canada and watch that ethanol demand, because they’re such a big buyer of our ethanol.

Todd Gleason: Right. And then we still have on the cattle side New World screwworm, though they say they have a different and new plan for that, as it’s related to how the genetics work with the the flies that are released. Are you worried about the cattle market very much?

Mike Zuzolo: I’m not worried about the screwworm. I think the pharmaceuticals are ahead of this, and that’s that’s coming from some of the conversations I’ve had on the sidelines with some people that I think have some good ideas of what’s happening. The thing about the cattle is we just have delinked and decoupled from the fundamentals and the funds. And and like the wheat and crude oil market, I honestly believe supply/demand-wise, consumption-wise, Wall Street, the weaker dollar—these things would make me think we should be closer to last year’s levels, in fact, cattle prices, which is about $30 higher than where we are at this stage of the game. So I’m I’m really expecting a lot out of the cattle as we get into the second half of September.

Todd Gleason: Anything before I let you go?

Mike Zuzolo: I’d say the only other thing is we tested the bond yield waters, and so far the the situation is holding. And we saw a really nice break in the dollar, thanks in part to that and also to the trade balance being so imbalanced for the month of July. So right now the dollar is not a factor, and that’s good.

Todd Gleason: Hey, thanks much. We appreciate it.

Mike Zuzolo: Thanks, Todd. You bet.

Todd Gleason: That’s Mike Zuzolo. He’s with globalcommresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas.

We have a couple of news items as we head into the Labor Day weekend. First, a survey shows continued growth in cover crop use.

08:38 WILLAg News | Cover Crop Usage Up & a New Way to Control NWS

Todd Gleason: The 2026 National Cover Crop Report indicates growing interest in cover crops among farmers. The survey found cover crop users planted an average of nearly 398 acres in 2026 and expect to exceed 400 acres next year. Nearly half of the respondents reported more than 10 years of experience using cover crops. The survey, conducted by the Conservation Technology Information Center, USDA Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education program, and the American Seed Trade Association, included responses from 657 farmers across 46 states and Puerto Rico. Researchers noted that cover crop use is often flexible rather than continuous, with many farmers adjusting acreage based on economics, weather, labor, availability, and crop rotations. More than 73% of farmers who have never used cover crops say they would consider trying them.

In other news, USDA researchers are developing a new strain of New World screwworm sterile male flies to boost eradication efforts. NWS is still in USDA’s crosshairs as researchers seek a more effective way to halt the threat to cattle and other livestock, and they think they’ve got one: Novafly. Research entomologist Alex Arp explains.

Alex Arp: Remove the females from the system and save some money and get more flies produced that are actually helping us out. We developed a strain we call Novafly that kills the females as embryos. It’s going to really double the output of the sterile insect facilities without really having any major cost to the infrastructure. On top of that—

Todd Gleason: Which Arp says is more efficient and cost-effective than the traditional process of sterilizing both males and females. The novel genetic strain developed by USDA’s Ag Research Service and North Carolina State University should boost suppression rates in NWS-impacted areas like South Texas. EPA approval and approval from countries with sterile fly plants are needed before full-scale Novafly production and release.

And that’s a look at today’s agricultural news.

You’re listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media on this Friday afternoon. Stay with us for the whole of the hour on our home station, you’ll hear all of our Commodity Week program, including our guests this week: Sherman Newlin, Matt Bennett, and Shane Holtorf. We have a very, very good conversation yesterday afternoon. If you can’t stay with us, no worries, it’s up online right now at willag.org. The theme music for the Closing Market Report, by the way, is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois, farmer Tim Gleason.

On Fridays, we always talk with Eric Snodgrass from Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible about the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Hi, Eric. Is it hot enough for you? It is for me, by the way.

11:34 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag Solutions

Eric Snodgrass: I’m kind of tired of it, honestly. I was telling my wife the other day, I was like, “I kind of wish it was fall.” She’s like, “Don’t do that.” She loves fall, but you know, you don’t want to rush on the next season because we know what follows that. But, you know, to pack these temperatures off to maybe what they were at some points in August would be quite nice. And but it’s pretty hot, and we’re here at the end of the season adding on a lot of stress degree days to the crop, which honestly doesn’t hurt it too badly at this time of year, but would have been quite bad if we’d have had this in August.

But we are not done with this heat for a while. The the ridge that’s creating it is in place because of how blocked up the the western side of the United States is with deep troughs. Not really blocked up, it’s just continually regenerating troughs out there. And I’ll tell you, Todd, they would want anything to signal a wetter sign going forward given that we’re still about 75% of the country in drought, and a lot of that’s anchored in the West.

One thing to think about here, Lake Powell, which is huge, has huge hydroelectric power generation on it, part of the Colorado River system. I just checked again today, it is just 27 feet above where it needs to be for minimum power generation. So should that lake drop another 27 feet—and by the way, it’s already 200 feet below where it should be—but if it drops another 27 feet, that will knock out power for 5 million people. They’ll have to find it from other resources. So the drought in the West is serious, the drought in the Southern Plains is serious, and even Edouard, the the tropical system, couldn’t even get all the way to Dallas, which makes Dallas’s dry streak now at 53 days. So, yeah, there’s a whole lot to talk about with this pattern that’s making us hot, because it’s causing problems elsewhere around the country, too.

Todd Gleason: And and dry. Hot and dry, even here, despite the fact that August was extraordinarily wet in the eastern Corn Belt. And we still are are doing fine, I think, as far as it really goes for soil moisture, but it would be nice to have a rainfall or two. I looked wishfully last night, I think it was, or maybe yesterday sometime, at some rain to the north of us and thought, “Gosh, it would be nice to have a little of that.” But not yet. Anything in the offing next week across the Corn Belt?

Eric Snodgrass: No, still a drier signal, although not as dry. We are going to see this pattern break down, but I don’t think it’ll happen until mid-month. So we’ve got another 10 days of seeing something like this. Now, in the heat, by the way, in the middle of the days, storms will pop. Like, you’ll get a storm somewhere, but they’re small, they’re vertical, they don’t tend to cover much horizontal ground, and so there’s a couple of chances for pop-up storms. But yeah, we’ve got the heat on until we get past the weekend, and then midweek next week at least calms down to being just four or five degrees above average rather than 15. So it’ll be it’ll be a hot one going forward.

Todd Gleason: I like to think of the Atlantic as the bowling alley at this time of year, and the hurricanes come rolling in. Although I’ve not heard much out of those areas. What are you seeing?

Eric Snodgrass: No, I mean, we’re only up to letter E. Every system’s been weak. Some of the systems have even been great. Like, some of the rain out of Edouard, which came into Texas, was desperately needed. Dolly brought rain to Puerto Rico, which was desperately needed. But we’ve seen the Atlantic shut down: too much wind shear, too little instability, too much high pressure. All of that is correlated well with El Niño years. And right now we’re sitting at just barely at 10% of a normal season up to this point. And just so you know, we’re only seven days away from the peak of the season, so almost halfway done and we’re that far behind. And so now, in contrary, you should go bowling in the East Pacific because there’s three massive hurricanes out there right now, and another one that might go straight out of the—it’s amazing, it’s going to come out of the south heading north, and might clip the westernmost islands in Hawaii with some stronger winds, heavy rain, and definitely some great surfing conditions.

Todd Gleason: All right. South America?

Eric Snodgrass: This is what’s going to be very interesting, Todd. So we’ve been forecasting wet in the near term, and very wet in southern Brazil, but enough rain, 1.5 to 3 inches across parts of the Cerrado, that that’s usually the amount of rainfall they wait on to get planting. But every El Niño kind of gives its own flavor, and this one might be that the monsoon comes in fits and starts, because already we’re beginning to see week two, week three, and beyond showing up dry. So any early attempts at planting—because they’re allowed to plant now, most of the most of those regions—any early attempts at planting will not germinate well, and will likely have to be replanted. And if that keeps happening, Todd, through October, like where they they get rain and then they get too dry following, this could be a this could be something to watch very carefully. Now, there’s no slam-dunk guarantee on that, but boy, I think the on-off nature of the precipitation in the Cerrado—so like in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, that region—has to be watched over the next 45 days.

Todd Gleason: Any other parts of South America we should be aware of?

Eric Snodgrass: Yeah, it’s it’s flooding in southern Brazil repeatedly, and then, surprisingly, Argentina’s had a very dry end of winter, start of spring. And usually they’re not dry whenever we have El Niño events. So this one is again, it’s the strongest we’ve ever seen in terms of El Niño, and it’s got its own flavor, and that’s kind of shaking things up, making it harder to do those both near- and long-term predictions.

Todd Gleason: We will check with you next week to see how things are shaking out. We appreciate it.

Eric Snodgrass: Yeah, you bet.

Todd Gleason: That’s Eric Snodgrass. He is with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible. Joined us here on this Friday edition of the Closing Market Report. It came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org, where right now you can find our Commodity Week program to listen to in its entirety. If you can stay with us on our home station, you’ll hear all of it, too. Otherwise, you can hear it over the weekend on many of these radio stations. Again, that’s at willag.org.