Episode Number
10445
Episode Show Notes / Description
The September 25, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, examines recent developments in commodity markets and global agricultural weather. Market analyst Mike Zuzolo discusses the potential for rain-damaged crops in the US corn and bean belt, the market anticipation surrounding agricultural export details from a recent Trump-Xi meeting, and strategies for producers to manage price risks amidst harvest delays and rising diesel costs. Meteorologist Eric Snodgrass details how heavy rains and gloomy conditions have stalled harvest efforts in the Midwest, noting that moisture from an East Pacific hurricane could cause further regional delays. Additionally, Snodgrass warns that a record-breaking El Nino may disrupt early soybean planting in South America due to inconsistent rainfall.
01:08 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting
08:56 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag Solutions
01:08 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting
08:56 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag Solutions
Transcript
cmr260925
The September 25, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, examines recent developments in commodity markets and global agricultural weather. Market analyst Mike Zuzolo discusses the potential for rain-damaged crops in the US corn and bean belt, the market anticipation surrounding agricultural export details from a recent Trump-Xi meeting, and strategies for producers to manage price risks amidst harvest delays and rising diesel costs. Meteorologist Eric Snodgrass details how heavy rains and gloomy conditions have stalled harvest efforts in the Midwest, noting that moisture from an East Pacific hurricane could cause further regional delays. Additionally, Snodgrass warns that a record-breaking El Nino may disrupt early soybean planting in South America due to inconsistent rainfall.
01:08 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting
08:56 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag Solutions
---
Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 25th day of September 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Mike Zuzolo. He is at globalcommresearch.com in Atchison, Kansas, and Eric Snodgrass will join us from right here in Champaign County at Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible. He’ll help us explore the weather forecast for the harvest season here and the planting season in Brazil. Along the way, if you can stay with us for the whole of the hour, you’ll hear all of our commodity week program with Arlan Suderman, Dave Chatterton, and Ted Seifried. If not, you can hear it online at willag.org or on many of these radio stations over the weekend.
Todd Gleason: December corn for the day settled at 5:28 and a quarter, three-quarters higher. March at 5:42, up a half. November beans, 13:19, a penny and a half higher, and the January at 13:32 and a half, up a half. Bean meal, a dollar 40 lower. The bean oil, 33 cents higher, and wheat futures, soft red finished at three and three-quarters lower.
01:08 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting
Todd Gleason: Mike Zuzolo of globalcommresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas, now joins us on what has been a busy Friday and a busy week, Mike. So many things happening in the marketplace; where would you like to start today?
Mike Zuzolo: Todd, one of the things that jumped in at the end of the week, helping to set the tone for the beginning of next week, is the idea that we have a new supply-side development. We have real potential now for rain-damaged US crops in the heart of the corn and bean belt that typically make or break our national yields. That is a genuinely new feature in this market that took hold Friday afternoon as we heard more from the US TR, Greg Greer, and President Trump himself that there would be some agriculture export news for the first of the week. The battle lines at the end of Friday were already drawn out for what we will deal with next week. We saw the sincere need in the price action after the Trump-Xi meeting ended and the sharp sell-off for concrete trade news in the form of US ag exports. That contrasts with the field conditions and harvest progress for corn and beans on Monday afternoon’s report, especially for Iowa, Nebraska, and Illinois. I talked to a client near the Chenoa, Princeton area who had nine inches of rain since last Thursday. The 14-day precip totals, coupled with what some models suggest, indicate we have a supply issue that could help support the downside, and we will have to work through that at the beginning of the week.
Todd Gleason: Sunday will be interesting to watch to see what the Trump administration releases regarding trade with China on agricultural products. Putting forth the $17 billion again won’t be enough; it will need to be detailed, and there would have to be support for the 25 million metric tons of soybeans on the calendar year again. I don’t know what to expect from the administration and this meeting, especially given the potential for issues related to harvest and rainfall next week. How should producers think about grain that needs to go across the scale?
Mike Zuzolo: If the basis is improving because of what’s happening in your locale and you can’t store it on farm, this is a price level where you need to think about selling it and defending at least part of it right away, moving from unknown, unlimited risk to known, limited risk. That is probably the most difficult feature of this year’s market for the producer side due to money going out the gas tank and combine as diesel prices go higher. You need to lock in a decent profit but have the upside potential covered with known cost. We need details because the trade is very nervous; we only have a certain window before Brazil and Argentina come back online to compete against us. USDA has soybean exports up 11% for this marketing year, but we’re currently running up 2%. From January through August, the US sold just under 11 million tons to China, which was down 34%, while Brazil shipped 55 million tons, up 5%. We are back on the defensive with soybean demand, and we need details for beef, corn, and wheat, especially with our higher tariffs on beef versus countries like Brazil. Secondly, the US dollar and bond yields have proven to be demand headwinds pushing back on trade. As yields and diesel prices go higher, the trade prices in more Fed rate hikes, driving the dollar higher. That is a major macro headwind on the demand side. Without a diesel export ban, that could short-term take us lower in the commodity sector. Big picture, that higher diesel price will keep working against us with higher yields and a higher dollar. Fortunately, the chart numbers held again this week; Friday morning’s lows were right on the major trend line supports for corn and beans, and those two made new daily highs going into Friday’s close.
Todd Gleason: Before I let you go, anything from the UN meetings this week that you found of interest?
Mike Zuzolo: Wrapping it all together, there is one country that could stop the Iran war and the Black Sea issue, open up the grain corridor, and open up the Strait of Hormuz, and that’s China. If the Trump-Xi meeting went well and they are okay with one another on Taiwan, there is no reason for Xi not to help open up the Strait of Hormuz and the grain corridor. That is at the heart of what led this rally in wheat and crude oil due to those choke points. If he helps the world, that opens the supply side back up and causes a top in the marketplace.
Todd Gleason: An interesting thought. Thank you so much for the time you take with us.
Mike Zuzolo: Great to be with you, and thanks for having me, Todd. Have a good weekend.
Todd Gleason: You too. That’s Mike Zuzolo of globalcommresearch.com in Atchison, Kansas.
08:56 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag Solutions
Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention to the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Eric Snodgrass is here from Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible. Hello, Eric; what’s the big news in the weather this week for the Midwest?
Eric Snodgrass: Can you see the sunshine right now, Todd?
Todd Gleason: If I lean far enough back, yes, I do.
Eric Snodgrass: That’s fantastic; I love sunshine. It’s important to think about because so much of the last ten days for the Midwest has been cloudy and gloomy. We’ve dropped our temperatures down, causing a problem for harvest efforts, especially in Iowa. September rains have hammered northern Illinois, all of Iowa, parts of Nebraska, Kansas, northern Indiana, and Ohio. Moving north to south across Illinois, it goes from so wet they haven’t been able to get much harvest done in the north to nearly finished in southern Illinois. Seeing some sunshine today has been nice after being so cloudy. The second thing on my mind is how this crop finished, the harvest pace, and the windows that will be closing up soon.
Todd Gleason: Why?
Eric Snodgrass: We’ve had a couple of big rainfall events lately, so we are having a wetter harvest than we’ve seen in years. Usually this time of year, we watch out for a hurricane coming up the gut of the Mississippi. This year, we have to watch out for a system in the Pacific, Hurricane Polo, coming up on the headwaters of the Rio Grande. It has already hit category 5 intensity three times and is currently on the west coast of Mexico. Steering currents in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will draw that moisture up late this weekend, bringing it through parts of New Mexico, Texas, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, and Iowa next week. Combined with a front dropping out of Canada, much of our next 8 to 10 days has more opportunity for rain, meaning we have very tight windows to get much done. In the eastern and central corn belt, some harvest progress has been made despite the cloud cover, but to our west, they are at a standstill. With the wetter conditions coming from the remnants of an East Pacific hurricane, it has been an oddball early fall forecast.
Todd Gleason: You told us you thought this would be a wet fall. Are we going to dry out at any point to get things moving along for harvest?
Eric Snodgrass: I do think we get an opportunity around October 2nd to October 3rd when flow comes out of Canada. It will be drier, and we’ll start to see those opportunities for harvest open up. While model trends point toward the October 3rd to October 10th timeframe opening up, Octobers with strong El Ninos tend to close opportunities quickly. I don’t anticipate the second half of October giving us the same freedoms as the front half. For the next eight days, we have chances for rain with the hurricane remnants coming through, but after that, it opens up with a pretty remarkable change in temperatures.
Todd Gleason: Anything else on El Nino in the season here, or shall we turn to South America?
Eric Snodgrass: South America is more worried about El Nino than we are. The El Nino last week surpassed the 2015 record, officially making it the strongest on record, and it is not done growing. I anticipate it will continue to break records for the next three months. This could set us up for a wetter winter, potentially knocking out more than 50% of the drought across the United States. In South America, they are wondering if their recent rains will be consistent enough to push early planting. In late September to early October, the consistency of rains across Mato Grosso, Goias, and center-west growing areas determines how quickly they can plant and establish the crop. I’m worried mid-October rains could back off, causing germination issues. The conversation we have about four weeks from now will be the most critical for determining if that crop got in successfully or if weather pushed their crop calendar off.
Todd Gleason: We’ll have two or three conversations between then and now, but we’ll try to remember that. Thank you so much, I appreciate it, Eric.
Eric Snodgrass: You bet.
Todd Gleason: That’s Eric Snodgrass. He is with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible, joining us on this Friday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. Thank you for your gifts this week. If you can stay with us, you’ll hear all of our commodity week program. If not, you can find it online at willag.org.
The September 25, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, examines recent developments in commodity markets and global agricultural weather. Market analyst Mike Zuzolo discusses the potential for rain-damaged crops in the US corn and bean belt, the market anticipation surrounding agricultural export details from a recent Trump-Xi meeting, and strategies for producers to manage price risks amidst harvest delays and rising diesel costs. Meteorologist Eric Snodgrass details how heavy rains and gloomy conditions have stalled harvest efforts in the Midwest, noting that moisture from an East Pacific hurricane could cause further regional delays. Additionally, Snodgrass warns that a record-breaking El Nino may disrupt early soybean planting in South America due to inconsistent rainfall.
01:08 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting
08:56 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag Solutions
---
Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 25th day of September 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Mike Zuzolo. He is at globalcommresearch.com in Atchison, Kansas, and Eric Snodgrass will join us from right here in Champaign County at Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible. He’ll help us explore the weather forecast for the harvest season here and the planting season in Brazil. Along the way, if you can stay with us for the whole of the hour, you’ll hear all of our commodity week program with Arlan Suderman, Dave Chatterton, and Ted Seifried. If not, you can hear it online at willag.org or on many of these radio stations over the weekend.
Todd Gleason: December corn for the day settled at 5:28 and a quarter, three-quarters higher. March at 5:42, up a half. November beans, 13:19, a penny and a half higher, and the January at 13:32 and a half, up a half. Bean meal, a dollar 40 lower. The bean oil, 33 cents higher, and wheat futures, soft red finished at three and three-quarters lower.
01:08 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting
Todd Gleason: Mike Zuzolo of globalcommresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas, now joins us on what has been a busy Friday and a busy week, Mike. So many things happening in the marketplace; where would you like to start today?
Mike Zuzolo: Todd, one of the things that jumped in at the end of the week, helping to set the tone for the beginning of next week, is the idea that we have a new supply-side development. We have real potential now for rain-damaged US crops in the heart of the corn and bean belt that typically make or break our national yields. That is a genuinely new feature in this market that took hold Friday afternoon as we heard more from the US TR, Greg Greer, and President Trump himself that there would be some agriculture export news for the first of the week. The battle lines at the end of Friday were already drawn out for what we will deal with next week. We saw the sincere need in the price action after the Trump-Xi meeting ended and the sharp sell-off for concrete trade news in the form of US ag exports. That contrasts with the field conditions and harvest progress for corn and beans on Monday afternoon’s report, especially for Iowa, Nebraska, and Illinois. I talked to a client near the Chenoa, Princeton area who had nine inches of rain since last Thursday. The 14-day precip totals, coupled with what some models suggest, indicate we have a supply issue that could help support the downside, and we will have to work through that at the beginning of the week.
Todd Gleason: Sunday will be interesting to watch to see what the Trump administration releases regarding trade with China on agricultural products. Putting forth the $17 billion again won’t be enough; it will need to be detailed, and there would have to be support for the 25 million metric tons of soybeans on the calendar year again. I don’t know what to expect from the administration and this meeting, especially given the potential for issues related to harvest and rainfall next week. How should producers think about grain that needs to go across the scale?
Mike Zuzolo: If the basis is improving because of what’s happening in your locale and you can’t store it on farm, this is a price level where you need to think about selling it and defending at least part of it right away, moving from unknown, unlimited risk to known, limited risk. That is probably the most difficult feature of this year’s market for the producer side due to money going out the gas tank and combine as diesel prices go higher. You need to lock in a decent profit but have the upside potential covered with known cost. We need details because the trade is very nervous; we only have a certain window before Brazil and Argentina come back online to compete against us. USDA has soybean exports up 11% for this marketing year, but we’re currently running up 2%. From January through August, the US sold just under 11 million tons to China, which was down 34%, while Brazil shipped 55 million tons, up 5%. We are back on the defensive with soybean demand, and we need details for beef, corn, and wheat, especially with our higher tariffs on beef versus countries like Brazil. Secondly, the US dollar and bond yields have proven to be demand headwinds pushing back on trade. As yields and diesel prices go higher, the trade prices in more Fed rate hikes, driving the dollar higher. That is a major macro headwind on the demand side. Without a diesel export ban, that could short-term take us lower in the commodity sector. Big picture, that higher diesel price will keep working against us with higher yields and a higher dollar. Fortunately, the chart numbers held again this week; Friday morning’s lows were right on the major trend line supports for corn and beans, and those two made new daily highs going into Friday’s close.
Todd Gleason: Before I let you go, anything from the UN meetings this week that you found of interest?
Mike Zuzolo: Wrapping it all together, there is one country that could stop the Iran war and the Black Sea issue, open up the grain corridor, and open up the Strait of Hormuz, and that’s China. If the Trump-Xi meeting went well and they are okay with one another on Taiwan, there is no reason for Xi not to help open up the Strait of Hormuz and the grain corridor. That is at the heart of what led this rally in wheat and crude oil due to those choke points. If he helps the world, that opens the supply side back up and causes a top in the marketplace.
Todd Gleason: An interesting thought. Thank you so much for the time you take with us.
Mike Zuzolo: Great to be with you, and thanks for having me, Todd. Have a good weekend.
Todd Gleason: You too. That’s Mike Zuzolo of globalcommresearch.com in Atchison, Kansas.
08:56 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag Solutions
Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention to the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Eric Snodgrass is here from Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible. Hello, Eric; what’s the big news in the weather this week for the Midwest?
Eric Snodgrass: Can you see the sunshine right now, Todd?
Todd Gleason: If I lean far enough back, yes, I do.
Eric Snodgrass: That’s fantastic; I love sunshine. It’s important to think about because so much of the last ten days for the Midwest has been cloudy and gloomy. We’ve dropped our temperatures down, causing a problem for harvest efforts, especially in Iowa. September rains have hammered northern Illinois, all of Iowa, parts of Nebraska, Kansas, northern Indiana, and Ohio. Moving north to south across Illinois, it goes from so wet they haven’t been able to get much harvest done in the north to nearly finished in southern Illinois. Seeing some sunshine today has been nice after being so cloudy. The second thing on my mind is how this crop finished, the harvest pace, and the windows that will be closing up soon.
Todd Gleason: Why?
Eric Snodgrass: We’ve had a couple of big rainfall events lately, so we are having a wetter harvest than we’ve seen in years. Usually this time of year, we watch out for a hurricane coming up the gut of the Mississippi. This year, we have to watch out for a system in the Pacific, Hurricane Polo, coming up on the headwaters of the Rio Grande. It has already hit category 5 intensity three times and is currently on the west coast of Mexico. Steering currents in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will draw that moisture up late this weekend, bringing it through parts of New Mexico, Texas, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, and Iowa next week. Combined with a front dropping out of Canada, much of our next 8 to 10 days has more opportunity for rain, meaning we have very tight windows to get much done. In the eastern and central corn belt, some harvest progress has been made despite the cloud cover, but to our west, they are at a standstill. With the wetter conditions coming from the remnants of an East Pacific hurricane, it has been an oddball early fall forecast.
Todd Gleason: You told us you thought this would be a wet fall. Are we going to dry out at any point to get things moving along for harvest?
Eric Snodgrass: I do think we get an opportunity around October 2nd to October 3rd when flow comes out of Canada. It will be drier, and we’ll start to see those opportunities for harvest open up. While model trends point toward the October 3rd to October 10th timeframe opening up, Octobers with strong El Ninos tend to close opportunities quickly. I don’t anticipate the second half of October giving us the same freedoms as the front half. For the next eight days, we have chances for rain with the hurricane remnants coming through, but after that, it opens up with a pretty remarkable change in temperatures.
Todd Gleason: Anything else on El Nino in the season here, or shall we turn to South America?
Eric Snodgrass: South America is more worried about El Nino than we are. The El Nino last week surpassed the 2015 record, officially making it the strongest on record, and it is not done growing. I anticipate it will continue to break records for the next three months. This could set us up for a wetter winter, potentially knocking out more than 50% of the drought across the United States. In South America, they are wondering if their recent rains will be consistent enough to push early planting. In late September to early October, the consistency of rains across Mato Grosso, Goias, and center-west growing areas determines how quickly they can plant and establish the crop. I’m worried mid-October rains could back off, causing germination issues. The conversation we have about four weeks from now will be the most critical for determining if that crop got in successfully or if weather pushed their crop calendar off.
Todd Gleason: We’ll have two or three conversations between then and now, but we’ll try to remember that. Thank you so much, I appreciate it, Eric.
Eric Snodgrass: You bet.
Todd Gleason: That’s Eric Snodgrass. He is with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible, joining us on this Friday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. Thank you for your gifts this week. If you can stay with us, you’ll hear all of our commodity week program. If not, you can find it online at willag.org.