Episode Number
10448
Episode Show Notes / Description
The September 30, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report hosted by Todd Gleason covers daily commodity futures and features detailed analysis of agricultural markets and global weather. Analyst Greg Johnson of Total Grain Marketing unpacks the USDA's quarterly grain stocks report, explaining that unexpectedly high corn ending stocks caused prices to drop, while soybean stocks aligned more closely with trade expectations. Johnson also shares early local harvest observations, noting that soybean yields are generally above average but corn yields are trending lower than the previous year. Following the market update, meteorologist Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. provides a global weather forecast. Lerner highlights how heavy rainfall is delaying harvest progress in the western Corn Belt, particularly in Iowa, but notes favorable weather patterns for crop development and harvest across Argentina and China respectively.
02:51 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM
14:01 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc.
02:51 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM
14:01 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc.
Transcript
cmr260930
The September 30, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report hosted by Todd Gleason covers daily commodity futures and features detailed analysis of agricultural markets and global weather. Analyst Greg Johnson of Total Grain Marketing unpacks the USDA's quarterly grain stocks report, explaining that unexpectedly high corn ending stocks caused prices to drop, while soybean stocks aligned more closely with trade expectations. Johnson also shares early local harvest observations, noting that soybean yields are generally above average but corn yields are trending lower than the previous year. Following the market update, meteorologist Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. provides a global weather forecast. Lerner highlights how heavy rainfall is delaying harvest progress in the western Corn Belt, particularly in Iowa, but notes favorable weather patterns for crop development and harvest across Argentina and China respectively.
02:51 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM
14:01 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc.
---
Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report, it is the 30th day of September 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Happy birthday to my oldest brother, Bill. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson. He is at TGM, that’s Total Grain Marketing, the elevator right here in Champaign County. We’ll go through this morning’s grain stocks report and talk as well about what that meant for the marketplace, of course. Then we’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast with Drew Lerner, who is at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. He’ll help us take a look at North America, South America, and something we have not discussed in detail very much at all this growing season, that’s the size of the corn crop in China. We’ll ask him about the growing season there and what his expectations for that crop as it’s being harvested might be. All on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on-demand at willag.org. That’s willag.org.
Announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: December corn for the day settled $5.00 and three-quarters of a cent. It was off 21 and a quarter cents. That after this morning’s release of the USDA grain stocks report at 11:00 AM Central Time. March down 20 and a half for the corn at 5.15 and a half, and May 5.23 and a quarter, down 19 and three-quarters. November beans off four and three-quarters at $12.93. January 13.09 and a quarter, down three and a half, and the March contract at 13.18 and a half, down three cents. Bean meal $3.00 lower for the day. The bean oil unchanged. Wheat futures December contract soft red at $6.75 and three-quarters, down 17 cents. The hard red December at $7.33, down a dime on the afternoon. Live cattle futures in Chicago at $222.70, $1.90 higher. Feeder cattle for 100 pounds up $3.40 at $334.30. And the lean hog $69.42 and a half, down 27 and a half cents for the day. The crude oil today at $90.69 a barrel, up $1.30. Diesel fuel or heating oil up about 19 and eight-tenths of a cent higher at $4.70 and eight-tenths of a cent. The wholesale price of gasoline today up 14 and two-tenths of a cent, $3.27 and a half is the current trading price. And the crude oil for the Brent at $98.31, up $2.15. The Dow Jones Industrial Average at this hour is down about 205 points.
02:51 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM
Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson now joins us from TGM. That’s Total Grain Marketing. He’s at the elevator here in Champaign, Illinois. Thank you, Greg, for being with us. This morning, the United States Department of Agriculture released its grain stocks quarterly report. This was the last one for the old crop and it really does set the beginning stocks for the new crop. What numbers did they show us today?
Greg Johnson: For corn, it was much higher than what traders were expecting. USDA came out this morning with an ending stocks number of 2.095 billion bushels. That’s up almost a half a billion bushels from last year’s ending stocks number on September 1 of 2025, which was 1.55 billion bushels. And this 2.095 number is much higher than what the traders were expecting. The average trade guess was 1.924, so this 2.095 number is 170 million bushels higher, yes, than what the trade was expecting. And obviously, with the trade missing it by that much, they are reacting by selling corn off. It’s down, ten minutes after the report came out, it was down about 15 cents. So, negative reaction to the corn stocks number. Beans, on the other hand, were about what traders were expecting, maybe a little friendly. A year ago, the ending stocks number was 325 million bushels. Traders were expecting that number to come in around 323. It in fact came in at 315 million bushels, which is 8 million less than the average trade guess. So that should be considered a little bit friendly, but beans are basically, ten minutes after the report, only up a nickel. So friendly, but not, I guess, the corn and the wheat numbers are weighing on the beans as well. As far as wheat is concerned, smaller than what traders were thinking, but not by much. Basically exactly what they thought. 1.849 billion bushels was the estimate for the ending stocks. It came in at 1.846. So that basically was about what the traders thought, lower than last year’s 2.13, but still a fair amount. And then USDA also released revised production estimates for the 2025 corn, soybean, and wheat crop. And while they did lower the 2025 corn production slightly, 57 million bushels, from 17.0 billion down to 16.96 billion bushels, that really wasn’t much of a drop and so that’s not getting much traction with the traders. And soybeans, basically unchanged. They were at 4.262 billion bushels for last year’s soybean crop, now they’re at 4.261. So basically unchanged on soybeans.
Todd Gleason: So quickly to summarize this, and check my numbers as I go, but we now have a 2.094 or 2.1 billion bushel carryout for corn, old crop, and a 315 million bushel carryout for soybeans. And if you just roll those two numbers into the September World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate balance sheet, that would project in October, if no other numbers change, a 1.739 billion bushel carryout for the new crop corn and a 300 million bushel carryout for soybeans. What do you think of those numbers as we head into the harvest season?
Greg Johnson: You’re right. The 1.7 ending stocks number gets us back up above the 10% stocks-to-use ratio number that we finally got below with the last report. So, if the government doesn’t change the yield on the 2026 crop, I think we’ve gone from being concerned to about being overly tight on the stocks, to being comfortable, certainly not burdensome, but basically the bottom line is now going to be a focus on changing to the yield. Will the government lower the US corn yield anymore from that 178.5 that they lowered it last month? Will that get any lower or will it stay at 178.5? So that seems to be the next area that might lend some support to the corn market, because this stocks report certainly did not.
Todd Gleason: Okay, now let’s talk about what’s been happening in the local area. Speaking of your draw area, producers are beginning to move out or were the first two or three days of this week. What does the corn and/or soybeans that are coming in, yield, seem to be so far?
Greg Johnson: Well, we’ve had more beans come in than corn. The corn is slowly drying down, but the beans are, especially the beans that got planted early before the corn, those seem to be ready and they’re coming in. And where they didn’t get drowned out, they’re very good. I think we’re looking at either a record crop or the second biggest crop we’ve ever had in Central Illinois. Farmers are pleased. Beans are in the 70s, every once in a while we see some in the 80s, and most of them say that’s a few bushels better than what they had last year, and last year was a pretty good crop. So the bean yields are above normal and above last year. And like I say, they could be a record, depending on how the last 80% comes out of the field. Corn, on the other hand, people were expecting a little bit less, and I think it’s actually a little bit lower than what they were even thinking. I think we’re looking at anywhere from 10 to 20 bushels lower yields than what we saw last year. Now, having said that, you have to remember it’s extremely variable. We’ve had farmers that have had bushel yields close to last year, maybe even a little bit better. But then where we’ve had water damage or wind damage, yields are below 200, where they had 230-bushel corn last year. So it runs the gamut, it’s extremely variable, but overall, and again we’re not even 10% harvested, so we still got a ways to go, but the early results would indicate that the beans are better than expected by a large margin and the corn is going to be down 10 to 20 bushels from last year.
Todd Gleason: Down 10 to 20. In that short-term memory function, off a really, really good year, what does that tell you about this crop, and is it an average crop, better than average crop, worse than average crop?
Greg Johnson: It’s probably lower than average. Let me look back here. Central Illinois corn… let’s see. The last five years, we’ve averaged in Central Illinois 210, 220, 217, 230, and then last year 233 was a record. So if we take 15 bushels off of that, we’re back around 215, which would be maybe the fifth biggest crop ever. So it’s certainly not a disaster, but it’s not near the 230-bushel corn average that we saw in Central Illinois.
Todd Gleason: In the last two years, in fact, I didn’t realize that, or think about that. So those are a couple of good crop years, no wonder producers are thinking that this crop is off, maybe further than it is. But still, it is off from previous years. Now putting all of that together, what does that tell you if anything which has really changed in the marketplace?
Greg Johnson: I think it really boils down to China. I mean, the fundamentals are still pretty friendly. I mean, the ending stocks number is right around 10%. It might come out now a little over 10%. If we get a new updated supply and demand report next Friday, if they lower the yield, we may be back down under 10% again. Otherwise, we might be just over 10%. But, I think right around 10%, I think farmers feel like there’s still potential upside. You know, we’ve still got inflation, we’ve still got El Niño that could affect the South American crop. We’ve still got the wild card of China, will they come in and buy corn or not? They didn’t announce any corn as a result of the Trump Xi meeting last week, but there’s still hope that China could come in and buy corn. So there are some fundamentally friendly things in the corn and bean markets. But on the flip side, there’s also things… we’ve gone sideways after running this market up quite a bit. You know, we’ve gone sideways for about four weeks now. And so, you know, it seems like maybe we’re running out of a little bit of steam. The funds are record long in the corn, they’re close to record long in the beans. We’ve got a strong dollar, which is not good for our exports. Brazil can increase soybean acres and with $13 beans, you would think that maybe they would increase soybean acres. And Brazil does not have to pay a tariff to sell their beans into China, like we still have that 10% tariff. So there are some negative things out there in the beans, especially from $13. And corn, I guess you could go either way, and that’s why the market’s gone sideways. Some people think we should go 50 cents higher, others think we’ve already rallied a dollar and we could give back a third of that rally. So, lots of opinions, but, maybe until we get the numbers from the USDA next Friday to see if the corn yield is lowered even more, maybe we continue to just struggle sideways at these higher levels. These aren’t bad places to go sideways at, I would argue.
Todd Gleason: Hey, one last thing, basis levels. Let’s call this maybe week one of harvest really in the area. Weeks two and three should break basis some. Do you expect that?
Greg Johnson: We’ve seen soybean basis break only because there was a 75-cent, 50-cent to 75-cent to a dollar premium for old crop beans if you could get them shipped in September versus October. We haven’t seen the full October bid drop for soybeans. It’s just the quick shipment premium bid that we’ve seen drop in soybeans. Corn basis hasn’t changed yet, but we haven’t got into harvest very much yet for corn. But the higher fuel prices are translating into higher freight costs, both truck, barge, and railroad. So that tends to weaken basis. So if I had to guess, the next move for corn basis would be weaker, not stronger.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. I appreciate it, Greg.
Greg Johnson: Hey, thanks Todd.
Todd Gleason: That’s Greg Johnson. He’s at TGM. That’s Total Grain Marketing, the elevator that belongs to Growmark FS. You can listen to him anytime again you’d like to from our website, do that at willag.org or search out the Closing Market Report podcast by name in your favorite podcast applications.
14:01 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc.
Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the weather forecast. Drew Lerner is here from World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Drew, producers, particularly in the western part of the United States, Iowa, some other areas, have been inundated with water, rainfall over the last week or so. They’ve gotten more this week as well. I don’t think they’re panicked yet, but at some point they may get there depending on what happens with the weather forecast. What do you see from now through next, not this weekend, but the following one as it relates to the ability of the ground to dry out and firm up and farmers to be able to get into the field?
Drew Lerner: Yeah, well, the one thing that’s working against us right now is the fact that we’re going to cool down. So we’re going to lose some of that evaporative moisture rate that we’ve been having. But we’ll have lower humidity, so maybe that’ll help a little bit too. We’ve got certainly today and tomorrow significant rains coming up still yet for the western corn belt in general, but unfortunately centered on Iowa. And I think that we will see the southern half of the state picking up at least one to three and maybe some local four-inch amounts. So that’s on top of monthly totals in south central parts of the state that are in the 10 to 15 inch range. So there’s no question that it’s way over the top here, we need to get it to dry down. The good news is this is the last surge for rain at least in the next couple of weeks. And I think that we may have a few showers that’ll come with a couple of frontal systems, but nothing like the kind of rain we’ve seen the last few weeks. And so it is going to get better. But we still have to get through today and tomorrow, and it’s going to be pretty sloppy, and it’s not just Iowa. Like you said, neighboring areas are also involved with this, northern Missouri, eastern Nebraska, southern Minnesota, and parts of Wisconsin. And most of that area will pick up on additional rain too. But we just put together the monthly outlook for October, and we’ve got most of that area with near to below normal precipitation. There will be temperatures that will be a little bit warm biased overall for the month, so I think we’re going to be moving in the right direction. But, you know, 10 to 20 inches of rain is going to be hard to get out of the soil very quickly, and I do think that we’ll have to be sidelined for a while in these wetter areas. It will take a good couple of weeks to get some of that ground firmed up.
Todd Gleason: It’ll be interesting to watch those weekly crop progress reports. That’s the last one from the previous Monday here. Showed that the pace actually was right on the five-year average for both corn and soybeans. I suspect that’ll show a slower pace on Monday of next week. Following week, things might begin to pick up. But we’ll find out as we move through the harvest season. Any other parts of the growing regions of the United States that you’ve been watching closely, whether that’s in the eastern corn belt? I don’t think cold weather’s a problem in the northwestern part of the corn belt, you can tell me, or maybe there’s something in the southwest for the wheat?
Drew Lerner: Yeah, there’s not too much. I do think that hard red winter wheat needs to at least get a brief moment in the limelight here. We were so very dry for quite a while there, and excessively hot, and we have definitely turned that corner. It is cooling down now, and we’ve had some really nice rains. So we’ve put a lot of moisture in the ground, and the crops are going to start being planted more aggressively, and certainly they will emerge and establish in a much better manner. So that’s the most important thing for the central and southwest US plains. In the southeastern part of the country and the Delta, even east Texas, these areas were really quite dry over the last 30 days, but we are going to get some moisture into those areas, and it won’t be excessive, with the exception of a few counties in Texas. But the Delta and the southeast will probably see some short-term disruption to farming activity for a little while, but there’s not going to be any serious setback there. And as far as cold, no, there’s, we’re going to cool down seasonally, we’ll see some frost and freezes in the coming week in areas in the upper Midwest and the northeastern US, but that’s really about it. The rest of the country is going to continue to just perk right along.
Todd Gleason: Switch from North America to South America, start in Argentina. Haven’t gotten a good update from the bottom growing areas in that nation all the way through Mato Grosso, and then into the Tocantins, into the northwestern part of Brazil. Can you give us an update of where they are across South America?
Drew Lerner: Absolutely. We had a nice rain distribution across Argentina a couple of days ago, and it really helped them out a lot. There was still quite a bit of the area from Cordoba northward that was still quite dry in Argentina, not to the point of really seriously threatening any crop necessarily, but certainly the rain was needed. And we’re going to see some good alternating patterns of rain and sunshine in Argentina as we move forward through these next 10 days to two weeks. And the second week forecast will probably be wetter than this first week, and it’ll offer an opportunity for farming activity to take place. So it really looks pretty darn good right now in Argentina. In Brazil, probably the biggest concern that I have right now is over the potential for excessive rain to occur Sunday through Tuesday or Wednesday of next week in the interior southern parts of Brazil. This would include southeastern Paraguay as well, but probably focus on Parana, parts of Santa Catarina, southwestern Sao Paulo, and southern Mato Grosso do Sul. These areas will get multiple inches of rain in that three to four, five day period, and we’ll probably see some amounts running between 6 and 10 inches easily, something a little bit more. So some of the early planted corn and beans in that area may end up having to be replanted. There’s still some wheat that’s being harvested in Parana in particular, and the quality of that crop is probably going to take a little bit of a nose dive because of this. Farther north in center west Brazil, we’re going to see some timely rains showing up, beginning really in the next couple of days. We’ll probably see it mostly Friday through the weekend into Monday, scattered showers and thunderstorms, which will certainly help to improve the planting situation there. And the only place where it’s really not going to be raining much is in that northeast you mentioned, Tocantins and Bahia and Piaui and Maranhao. Those areas will continue to be dry, but you have to keep in mind that they don’t usually see their seasonal rains increase until we get into November. So there’s still plenty of time for improvement up that way, even though El Niño is probably going to delay that arriving rain. So we will need to watch that region.
Todd Gleason: Before we wrap up, if I could have you take a quick look at the corn growing areas of China, those are mostly in the northeastern part of that nation. They grow the second largest corn crop on the planet. They don’t export, usually, or certainly not very much. What do you think that crop has been like this year?
Drew Lerner: You know, I think it’s been fairly good. I certainly wouldn’t let it be anything less than average, and more likely it’s going to be above average. There was really very few periods where it was excessively dry in the region, and certainly flooding rains were somewhat rare. There were a few bouts of that, but I would say that crop is probably a little above average. And there may have been a little bit of hurt a little farther to the south, southwest there in that east central part of the country. But even there, I can’t get too excited about huge declines in yield. So I think China’s going to come in looking at a fairly big crop, and right now it looks like they’re going into a seasonally dry-biased period, and that’s really going to favor the harvest in a more aggressive manner. So I think it’s looking pretty good there.
Todd Gleason: Thank you for all the updates. We appreciate it.
Drew Lerner: You bet, and have a great week.
Todd Gleason: You too. That’s Drew Lerner. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Joined us on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on-demand at willag.org. That’s willag.org. You have a good afternoon. Be safe on the back roads of rural America, particularly if you’re not used to driving them, you may find some very large machinery moving very slowly in front of you, and it can surprise you by how quickly it comes up. So slow down, watch for those big orange triangles on the back of vehicles. Sometimes it’ll be a semi, so they won’t have something on the back, they’ll be moving slowly as well. I know the producers and drivers will be watching for you on those roads, you watch for them too. I’m Todd Gleason.
The September 30, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report hosted by Todd Gleason covers daily commodity futures and features detailed analysis of agricultural markets and global weather. Analyst Greg Johnson of Total Grain Marketing unpacks the USDA's quarterly grain stocks report, explaining that unexpectedly high corn ending stocks caused prices to drop, while soybean stocks aligned more closely with trade expectations. Johnson also shares early local harvest observations, noting that soybean yields are generally above average but corn yields are trending lower than the previous year. Following the market update, meteorologist Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. provides a global weather forecast. Lerner highlights how heavy rainfall is delaying harvest progress in the western Corn Belt, particularly in Iowa, but notes favorable weather patterns for crop development and harvest across Argentina and China respectively.
02:51 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM
14:01 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc.
---
Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report, it is the 30th day of September 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Happy birthday to my oldest brother, Bill. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson. He is at TGM, that’s Total Grain Marketing, the elevator right here in Champaign County. We’ll go through this morning’s grain stocks report and talk as well about what that meant for the marketplace, of course. Then we’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast with Drew Lerner, who is at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. He’ll help us take a look at North America, South America, and something we have not discussed in detail very much at all this growing season, that’s the size of the corn crop in China. We’ll ask him about the growing season there and what his expectations for that crop as it’s being harvested might be. All on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on-demand at willag.org. That’s willag.org.
Announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: December corn for the day settled $5.00 and three-quarters of a cent. It was off 21 and a quarter cents. That after this morning’s release of the USDA grain stocks report at 11:00 AM Central Time. March down 20 and a half for the corn at 5.15 and a half, and May 5.23 and a quarter, down 19 and three-quarters. November beans off four and three-quarters at $12.93. January 13.09 and a quarter, down three and a half, and the March contract at 13.18 and a half, down three cents. Bean meal $3.00 lower for the day. The bean oil unchanged. Wheat futures December contract soft red at $6.75 and three-quarters, down 17 cents. The hard red December at $7.33, down a dime on the afternoon. Live cattle futures in Chicago at $222.70, $1.90 higher. Feeder cattle for 100 pounds up $3.40 at $334.30. And the lean hog $69.42 and a half, down 27 and a half cents for the day. The crude oil today at $90.69 a barrel, up $1.30. Diesel fuel or heating oil up about 19 and eight-tenths of a cent higher at $4.70 and eight-tenths of a cent. The wholesale price of gasoline today up 14 and two-tenths of a cent, $3.27 and a half is the current trading price. And the crude oil for the Brent at $98.31, up $2.15. The Dow Jones Industrial Average at this hour is down about 205 points.
02:51 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM
Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson now joins us from TGM. That’s Total Grain Marketing. He’s at the elevator here in Champaign, Illinois. Thank you, Greg, for being with us. This morning, the United States Department of Agriculture released its grain stocks quarterly report. This was the last one for the old crop and it really does set the beginning stocks for the new crop. What numbers did they show us today?
Greg Johnson: For corn, it was much higher than what traders were expecting. USDA came out this morning with an ending stocks number of 2.095 billion bushels. That’s up almost a half a billion bushels from last year’s ending stocks number on September 1 of 2025, which was 1.55 billion bushels. And this 2.095 number is much higher than what the traders were expecting. The average trade guess was 1.924, so this 2.095 number is 170 million bushels higher, yes, than what the trade was expecting. And obviously, with the trade missing it by that much, they are reacting by selling corn off. It’s down, ten minutes after the report came out, it was down about 15 cents. So, negative reaction to the corn stocks number. Beans, on the other hand, were about what traders were expecting, maybe a little friendly. A year ago, the ending stocks number was 325 million bushels. Traders were expecting that number to come in around 323. It in fact came in at 315 million bushels, which is 8 million less than the average trade guess. So that should be considered a little bit friendly, but beans are basically, ten minutes after the report, only up a nickel. So friendly, but not, I guess, the corn and the wheat numbers are weighing on the beans as well. As far as wheat is concerned, smaller than what traders were thinking, but not by much. Basically exactly what they thought. 1.849 billion bushels was the estimate for the ending stocks. It came in at 1.846. So that basically was about what the traders thought, lower than last year’s 2.13, but still a fair amount. And then USDA also released revised production estimates for the 2025 corn, soybean, and wheat crop. And while they did lower the 2025 corn production slightly, 57 million bushels, from 17.0 billion down to 16.96 billion bushels, that really wasn’t much of a drop and so that’s not getting much traction with the traders. And soybeans, basically unchanged. They were at 4.262 billion bushels for last year’s soybean crop, now they’re at 4.261. So basically unchanged on soybeans.
Todd Gleason: So quickly to summarize this, and check my numbers as I go, but we now have a 2.094 or 2.1 billion bushel carryout for corn, old crop, and a 315 million bushel carryout for soybeans. And if you just roll those two numbers into the September World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate balance sheet, that would project in October, if no other numbers change, a 1.739 billion bushel carryout for the new crop corn and a 300 million bushel carryout for soybeans. What do you think of those numbers as we head into the harvest season?
Greg Johnson: You’re right. The 1.7 ending stocks number gets us back up above the 10% stocks-to-use ratio number that we finally got below with the last report. So, if the government doesn’t change the yield on the 2026 crop, I think we’ve gone from being concerned to about being overly tight on the stocks, to being comfortable, certainly not burdensome, but basically the bottom line is now going to be a focus on changing to the yield. Will the government lower the US corn yield anymore from that 178.5 that they lowered it last month? Will that get any lower or will it stay at 178.5? So that seems to be the next area that might lend some support to the corn market, because this stocks report certainly did not.
Todd Gleason: Okay, now let’s talk about what’s been happening in the local area. Speaking of your draw area, producers are beginning to move out or were the first two or three days of this week. What does the corn and/or soybeans that are coming in, yield, seem to be so far?
Greg Johnson: Well, we’ve had more beans come in than corn. The corn is slowly drying down, but the beans are, especially the beans that got planted early before the corn, those seem to be ready and they’re coming in. And where they didn’t get drowned out, they’re very good. I think we’re looking at either a record crop or the second biggest crop we’ve ever had in Central Illinois. Farmers are pleased. Beans are in the 70s, every once in a while we see some in the 80s, and most of them say that’s a few bushels better than what they had last year, and last year was a pretty good crop. So the bean yields are above normal and above last year. And like I say, they could be a record, depending on how the last 80% comes out of the field. Corn, on the other hand, people were expecting a little bit less, and I think it’s actually a little bit lower than what they were even thinking. I think we’re looking at anywhere from 10 to 20 bushels lower yields than what we saw last year. Now, having said that, you have to remember it’s extremely variable. We’ve had farmers that have had bushel yields close to last year, maybe even a little bit better. But then where we’ve had water damage or wind damage, yields are below 200, where they had 230-bushel corn last year. So it runs the gamut, it’s extremely variable, but overall, and again we’re not even 10% harvested, so we still got a ways to go, but the early results would indicate that the beans are better than expected by a large margin and the corn is going to be down 10 to 20 bushels from last year.
Todd Gleason: Down 10 to 20. In that short-term memory function, off a really, really good year, what does that tell you about this crop, and is it an average crop, better than average crop, worse than average crop?
Greg Johnson: It’s probably lower than average. Let me look back here. Central Illinois corn… let’s see. The last five years, we’ve averaged in Central Illinois 210, 220, 217, 230, and then last year 233 was a record. So if we take 15 bushels off of that, we’re back around 215, which would be maybe the fifth biggest crop ever. So it’s certainly not a disaster, but it’s not near the 230-bushel corn average that we saw in Central Illinois.
Todd Gleason: In the last two years, in fact, I didn’t realize that, or think about that. So those are a couple of good crop years, no wonder producers are thinking that this crop is off, maybe further than it is. But still, it is off from previous years. Now putting all of that together, what does that tell you if anything which has really changed in the marketplace?
Greg Johnson: I think it really boils down to China. I mean, the fundamentals are still pretty friendly. I mean, the ending stocks number is right around 10%. It might come out now a little over 10%. If we get a new updated supply and demand report next Friday, if they lower the yield, we may be back down under 10% again. Otherwise, we might be just over 10%. But, I think right around 10%, I think farmers feel like there’s still potential upside. You know, we’ve still got inflation, we’ve still got El Niño that could affect the South American crop. We’ve still got the wild card of China, will they come in and buy corn or not? They didn’t announce any corn as a result of the Trump Xi meeting last week, but there’s still hope that China could come in and buy corn. So there are some fundamentally friendly things in the corn and bean markets. But on the flip side, there’s also things… we’ve gone sideways after running this market up quite a bit. You know, we’ve gone sideways for about four weeks now. And so, you know, it seems like maybe we’re running out of a little bit of steam. The funds are record long in the corn, they’re close to record long in the beans. We’ve got a strong dollar, which is not good for our exports. Brazil can increase soybean acres and with $13 beans, you would think that maybe they would increase soybean acres. And Brazil does not have to pay a tariff to sell their beans into China, like we still have that 10% tariff. So there are some negative things out there in the beans, especially from $13. And corn, I guess you could go either way, and that’s why the market’s gone sideways. Some people think we should go 50 cents higher, others think we’ve already rallied a dollar and we could give back a third of that rally. So, lots of opinions, but, maybe until we get the numbers from the USDA next Friday to see if the corn yield is lowered even more, maybe we continue to just struggle sideways at these higher levels. These aren’t bad places to go sideways at, I would argue.
Todd Gleason: Hey, one last thing, basis levels. Let’s call this maybe week one of harvest really in the area. Weeks two and three should break basis some. Do you expect that?
Greg Johnson: We’ve seen soybean basis break only because there was a 75-cent, 50-cent to 75-cent to a dollar premium for old crop beans if you could get them shipped in September versus October. We haven’t seen the full October bid drop for soybeans. It’s just the quick shipment premium bid that we’ve seen drop in soybeans. Corn basis hasn’t changed yet, but we haven’t got into harvest very much yet for corn. But the higher fuel prices are translating into higher freight costs, both truck, barge, and railroad. So that tends to weaken basis. So if I had to guess, the next move for corn basis would be weaker, not stronger.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. I appreciate it, Greg.
Greg Johnson: Hey, thanks Todd.
Todd Gleason: That’s Greg Johnson. He’s at TGM. That’s Total Grain Marketing, the elevator that belongs to Growmark FS. You can listen to him anytime again you’d like to from our website, do that at willag.org or search out the Closing Market Report podcast by name in your favorite podcast applications.
14:01 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc.
Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the weather forecast. Drew Lerner is here from World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Drew, producers, particularly in the western part of the United States, Iowa, some other areas, have been inundated with water, rainfall over the last week or so. They’ve gotten more this week as well. I don’t think they’re panicked yet, but at some point they may get there depending on what happens with the weather forecast. What do you see from now through next, not this weekend, but the following one as it relates to the ability of the ground to dry out and firm up and farmers to be able to get into the field?
Drew Lerner: Yeah, well, the one thing that’s working against us right now is the fact that we’re going to cool down. So we’re going to lose some of that evaporative moisture rate that we’ve been having. But we’ll have lower humidity, so maybe that’ll help a little bit too. We’ve got certainly today and tomorrow significant rains coming up still yet for the western corn belt in general, but unfortunately centered on Iowa. And I think that we will see the southern half of the state picking up at least one to three and maybe some local four-inch amounts. So that’s on top of monthly totals in south central parts of the state that are in the 10 to 15 inch range. So there’s no question that it’s way over the top here, we need to get it to dry down. The good news is this is the last surge for rain at least in the next couple of weeks. And I think that we may have a few showers that’ll come with a couple of frontal systems, but nothing like the kind of rain we’ve seen the last few weeks. And so it is going to get better. But we still have to get through today and tomorrow, and it’s going to be pretty sloppy, and it’s not just Iowa. Like you said, neighboring areas are also involved with this, northern Missouri, eastern Nebraska, southern Minnesota, and parts of Wisconsin. And most of that area will pick up on additional rain too. But we just put together the monthly outlook for October, and we’ve got most of that area with near to below normal precipitation. There will be temperatures that will be a little bit warm biased overall for the month, so I think we’re going to be moving in the right direction. But, you know, 10 to 20 inches of rain is going to be hard to get out of the soil very quickly, and I do think that we’ll have to be sidelined for a while in these wetter areas. It will take a good couple of weeks to get some of that ground firmed up.
Todd Gleason: It’ll be interesting to watch those weekly crop progress reports. That’s the last one from the previous Monday here. Showed that the pace actually was right on the five-year average for both corn and soybeans. I suspect that’ll show a slower pace on Monday of next week. Following week, things might begin to pick up. But we’ll find out as we move through the harvest season. Any other parts of the growing regions of the United States that you’ve been watching closely, whether that’s in the eastern corn belt? I don’t think cold weather’s a problem in the northwestern part of the corn belt, you can tell me, or maybe there’s something in the southwest for the wheat?
Drew Lerner: Yeah, there’s not too much. I do think that hard red winter wheat needs to at least get a brief moment in the limelight here. We were so very dry for quite a while there, and excessively hot, and we have definitely turned that corner. It is cooling down now, and we’ve had some really nice rains. So we’ve put a lot of moisture in the ground, and the crops are going to start being planted more aggressively, and certainly they will emerge and establish in a much better manner. So that’s the most important thing for the central and southwest US plains. In the southeastern part of the country and the Delta, even east Texas, these areas were really quite dry over the last 30 days, but we are going to get some moisture into those areas, and it won’t be excessive, with the exception of a few counties in Texas. But the Delta and the southeast will probably see some short-term disruption to farming activity for a little while, but there’s not going to be any serious setback there. And as far as cold, no, there’s, we’re going to cool down seasonally, we’ll see some frost and freezes in the coming week in areas in the upper Midwest and the northeastern US, but that’s really about it. The rest of the country is going to continue to just perk right along.
Todd Gleason: Switch from North America to South America, start in Argentina. Haven’t gotten a good update from the bottom growing areas in that nation all the way through Mato Grosso, and then into the Tocantins, into the northwestern part of Brazil. Can you give us an update of where they are across South America?
Drew Lerner: Absolutely. We had a nice rain distribution across Argentina a couple of days ago, and it really helped them out a lot. There was still quite a bit of the area from Cordoba northward that was still quite dry in Argentina, not to the point of really seriously threatening any crop necessarily, but certainly the rain was needed. And we’re going to see some good alternating patterns of rain and sunshine in Argentina as we move forward through these next 10 days to two weeks. And the second week forecast will probably be wetter than this first week, and it’ll offer an opportunity for farming activity to take place. So it really looks pretty darn good right now in Argentina. In Brazil, probably the biggest concern that I have right now is over the potential for excessive rain to occur Sunday through Tuesday or Wednesday of next week in the interior southern parts of Brazil. This would include southeastern Paraguay as well, but probably focus on Parana, parts of Santa Catarina, southwestern Sao Paulo, and southern Mato Grosso do Sul. These areas will get multiple inches of rain in that three to four, five day period, and we’ll probably see some amounts running between 6 and 10 inches easily, something a little bit more. So some of the early planted corn and beans in that area may end up having to be replanted. There’s still some wheat that’s being harvested in Parana in particular, and the quality of that crop is probably going to take a little bit of a nose dive because of this. Farther north in center west Brazil, we’re going to see some timely rains showing up, beginning really in the next couple of days. We’ll probably see it mostly Friday through the weekend into Monday, scattered showers and thunderstorms, which will certainly help to improve the planting situation there. And the only place where it’s really not going to be raining much is in that northeast you mentioned, Tocantins and Bahia and Piaui and Maranhao. Those areas will continue to be dry, but you have to keep in mind that they don’t usually see their seasonal rains increase until we get into November. So there’s still plenty of time for improvement up that way, even though El Niño is probably going to delay that arriving rain. So we will need to watch that region.
Todd Gleason: Before we wrap up, if I could have you take a quick look at the corn growing areas of China, those are mostly in the northeastern part of that nation. They grow the second largest corn crop on the planet. They don’t export, usually, or certainly not very much. What do you think that crop has been like this year?
Drew Lerner: You know, I think it’s been fairly good. I certainly wouldn’t let it be anything less than average, and more likely it’s going to be above average. There was really very few periods where it was excessively dry in the region, and certainly flooding rains were somewhat rare. There were a few bouts of that, but I would say that crop is probably a little above average. And there may have been a little bit of hurt a little farther to the south, southwest there in that east central part of the country. But even there, I can’t get too excited about huge declines in yield. So I think China’s going to come in looking at a fairly big crop, and right now it looks like they’re going into a seasonally dry-biased period, and that’s really going to favor the harvest in a more aggressive manner. So I think it’s looking pretty good there.
Todd Gleason: Thank you for all the updates. We appreciate it.
Drew Lerner: You bet, and have a great week.
Todd Gleason: You too. That’s Drew Lerner. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Joined us on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on-demand at willag.org. That’s willag.org. You have a good afternoon. Be safe on the back roads of rural America, particularly if you’re not used to driving them, you may find some very large machinery moving very slowly in front of you, and it can surprise you by how quickly it comes up. So slow down, watch for those big orange triangles on the back of vehicles. Sometimes it’ll be a semi, so they won’t have something on the back, they’ll be moving slowly as well. I know the producers and drivers will be watching for you on those roads, you watch for them too. I’m Todd Gleason.