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This is the title of an article written by Darrell Good, Dept of Ag and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois. In the article, Dr. Good points out that corn prices rose 90 cents for mid-June to Mid-July on lower than expected USDA estimate of June 1 stocks and production concerns stemming from record June rainfall in much of the eastern Corn Belt.

He goes on to say that in the past two weeks corn prices have fallen 65 cents per bushel "as production concerns have subsided. (Current) expectations are for corn supplies to remain in surplus during the 2015-16 marketing year." For corn prices to rise, corn production will have to smaller than the trade's current expectation.

This is why the USDA's Crop Production report to be released on August 12 will be important for the corn market. It will contain the first survey-based yield and production forecasts for the 2015 crop. "Expectations for the U.S. average yield projection are in a wide range, but have generally increased over the past two weeks as weather conditions have become less stressful and as crop condition ratings have stabilized at a high level. The average yield expectation appears to be near 165 bushels." Darrell goes on to say,"On the other hand, a yield forecast of 161 bushels or less would likely be sufficient to push prices back to the mid-July highs."

Mark this report on your calendars, because it may be a market mover for the grain trade bulls.

Another item to put on the calendar is "Grain Marketing in Challenging Times" meetings to be held on Thursday, August 13.  For more information, click here.