Early in October, I had the opportunity to travel to Mount Vernon, Washington to take part in a climate adaptation academy for Extension professionals that work with specialty crop producers. Twelve participants were selected nationwide, with a big presence from the Midwest, which provided many opportunities to discuss climate management with Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin colleagues. The course discussed climate analogs, climate grief and stress for specialty crop producers, scenario planning, and critical conversations, a few workshops I hope to provide virtually this winter.
One of the key topics that we learned was the climate analog tool. A climate analog is a region or location that currently experiences climate conditions like precipitation, frost and temperature that a location is predicted to have in the future. Usually, these tools project what a region’s climate may be by 2080 or 2100 with the highest emissions rate. The tools do provide an option for what the climate may look like if emissions are reduced, but it is usually advised to choose the highest emissions rate.
What does this mean for specialty crops? I often discuss with producers and colleagues “what a weird year it’s been” for growing conditions and having these tools can help us understand what the climate may look like in the future and what crops may be more suited for our environment. It can also help us understand what weather challenges we may experience and how to prepare for them. After chatting with colleagues in Minnesota, Washington and Texas, some of their growers are using these tools in 5-10 year farm planning, to understand which crops may be better suited for changing frosts, chill hour requirements and optimal temperatures. A commercial berry grower in Washington shared on a tour that they are considering planting grapes in 10 years since it is becoming more difficult to grow brambles in northwest Washington and their climate analog is in central California, where grapes are grown very well. This same grower planted 300 acres of blueberries in 2020 due to the same climate concerns and have noticed crop success in their Washington climate.
Below are climate analogs for regions in Illinois, the tool provides more cities if you are interested in a major population near you. Once you locate the city your region is going to be most similar to in 60 years, it is interesting to research the crops that are grown there and the possibility of them being grown in Illinois someday.
Some analogs for Illinois regions include:
- Rockford: Cleveland, OK
- Sycamore: Sperry, OK
- Chicago: Verdigris, OK
- Galesburg: Schulter, OK
- Bloomington: Eufaula, OK
- Champaign: Kringston, OK
- Quincy: Henrietta, TX
- Effingham: Achille, OK
- Edwardsville: Ferris, TX
- Marion: Oil City, LA
Washington State University is producing a new climate analogs tool specifically for specialty crops, which will make it easier to compare climates and crops for future climates. If you are interested in using climate tools for farm preparation, feel free to reach out to me at arbarnes@illinois.edu and I can assist you with finding your climate analog.